During the 2008 gubernatorial season democrats waited until May to field a candidate. This cycle, Vermont democrats stepped up with Doug Racine announcing that he would take on Jim Douglas come 2010. Racine was a former Lite governor who lost to Douglas in 2002, 47-44.
“Racine, 56, who expects to return as chairman of the Senate Health & Welfare Committee, said he is focused on the 2009 legislative session. He said he informed several Douglas administration officials Monday of his plans to run for governor and that he doesn’t expect it to affect his work with them.”
There have also been rumblings of stronger candidates mounting a challenge against Douglas.
“Several high-profile Democrats are considering a run, amid pressure from party activists to get an early start. State Treasurer Jeb Spaulding said he’s still considering a run and expects to decide within a few months.”
Spaulding has been Treasurer since 2002, is the president of the national association of state treasurers, and was a state senator from1995-2001. This would make him one of the strongest candidates to challenge Douglas since Racine’s first challenge back in 2002. He will decide within three months.
The race is also complicated by Douglas’ recent proposals to deal with the recession. The biggest issue will be scrapping act 68, the way that Vermonters pay for education, without offering any sort of alternative way to fund education.
“If local school boards want to spend more per pupil than they are doing in the current year, any additional funds would have to be paid for entirely by local residential property taxpayers. Income sensitivity provisions – under which homeowners pay school taxes based on income, not property values – would not apply.”
Reopening this can of worms could potentially weaken Governor Douglas’ popularity. Normally Douglas survives by not doing or proposing anything too controversial, then benefits from the independence of the electorate and the left far left split. A violent education battle could be the issue that makes Douglas vulnerable.
If Douglas is indeed weakened by the education battle or seems weak, then Spaulding will most likely join the fray, as could sec of state Deb Markowitz. If however Douglas runs for re-election, and doesn’t appear vulnerable, Racine will have the nomination all to himself, and will most likely face a three way race with Anthony Pollina. Pollina was the progressive turned independent who beat Gaye Symington in the 2008 election.
If Douglas retires, the election will quickly become bedlam. The Vermont political scene is constipated, with every statewide official, as well as many aspiring state senators and mayors stuck. Should Douglas retire, plethora of positions open up. The governors seat will free up first, then the lite govs seat, if lite gov Brian Dubie runs for governor, or retires. From there, Markowitz and Spaulding will run hopefully for those two positions, or will primary each other for the governor’s seat. This will open the treasurer’s position and secretary of state. If Douglas retires, Racine will most likely lose the primary battle, and democrats will be favored for all of the aforementioned positions. There are some wildcards however.
1. Leahy retirement/Death: in his seventies, Leahy could decide to retire in 2010 giving Douglas and Dubie the option to run for senate. They passed on the open seat in 2006, but both knew they couldn’t beat Bernie Sanders. For the democrats the only dems who could win would be Markowitz, Spaulding and current House rep Peter Welch. Welch is popular, but Douglas and Dubie have been on the statewide scene the longest. This would be his only chance to become a senator as Bernie will almost certainly run for re-election in 2012. By the time an open seat comes up in 2016 or 2018 Welch will be 67-70. 67-70 Year olds do not run for freshman terms in the senate unless they know they can’t win. By 2016/2018 Welch will have seniority and will probably be looking towards either a good committee assignment, house leadership role, or cabinet position depending on who wins in 2016. With Markowitz and Spaulding, who knows?
2. Howard Dean returns to Vermont politics: there haven’t been any rumblings of this, but with the whole “Obama is dissing Dean Meme” it’s possible that dean will return to Vermont either to run for senator if there’s a retirement or governor again. I put the chances in the low single digits, but were it to happen, it would change everything.
3. Further economic downturns. Who knows how this could affect the race, but it probably will.