Tag: Polls

Rasmussen (9/8, likely voters, 8/20 in parens):

Tom Udall (D): 51 (52)

Steve Pearce (R): 44 (44)

(MoE: ±4%)

Republicans are coming home for Steve Pearce — that much is clear from the crosstabs. Pearce now enjoys 86% support from Republicans, up significantly from 77% in July. This isn’t that surprising — with groups like the Club For Growth beaning Udall, the GOP was bound to rally the base.

We still feel very confident about this race, and SSP rates it as Likely Democratic. With no help from the NRSC, Pearce has extremely slim odds barring a major stumble by Tom Udall.

Bonus finding: John McCain is nosing Obama by 49-47 in the same poll.

Rasmussen (9/9, likely voters, 7/30 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (50)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (37)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Stevens isn’t dead yet — no doubt about it. This is the third poll confirming the incredible closeness of this race (releases by Moore Information and Ivan Moore being the other two).

It’s clear that even with the taint of corruption, Stevens is still gonna be one tough sumbitch to beat. Let’s hope for a conviction.

Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, McCain is now utterly wrecking shop in Alaska: 64-33. Not very surprising.

This is more like it.

Public Policy Polling (9/9, likely voters, 8/20-23 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (42)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 42 (39)

Chris Cole (L): 6 (5)

Undecided: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Ahh, that feels a lot better than that funked up SUSA poll from last night showing Dole up 8 (and Johnny Mac up 20). In this poll, Democrats have a more reasonable 49%-36% advantage in the crosstabs, compared to the one-point GOP advantage in SUSA’s latest and greatest.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-44 in the same poll.

UPDATE by Crisitunity: Bonus bonus finding: Dem Bev Perdue is up over Republican Pat McCrory by only 41-40 in the governor’s race, down from 43-38 in the last PPP poll.

SPECIAL UPDATE by J. Hell: Bev Perdue has released an internal poll by Garin-Hart-Yang (9/5-7): Perdue +6, McCain +3, Dole +2.

SurveyUSA (9/6-8, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 40 (41)

Liddy Dole (R-inc): 48 (46)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (7)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

We’ve seen Kay Hagan surging ahead in other polls, so what’s the dealio here?

Well, this is a weekend poll (which any pollster worth his salt will tell you is a less than ideal time to field a survey) taken immediately after an effective GOP convention. Apparently, McCain’s electrifying convention speech and his selection of moose huntress Sarah Palin has awoken a zombie Republican army, as the poll’s crosstabs reveal a partisan sample of 41% R, 40% D. That’s a dramatic jump from the 46% D, 33% R partisan sample that SUSA found in August.

The findings trickle up the ballot, too: McCain has a monstrous 20% lead over Obama, and Pat McCrory leads Bev Perdue by eight points.

No, I’m not putting much stock in these numbers, although it’s possible that the GOP (especially McCain) received a mini-bump. Our friend Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling doesn’t believe these numbers, either, and that firm is fielding a new poll starting tonight in order to set the record straight.

Rasmussen (likely voters, 9/7):

Max Baucus (D-inc): 64

Bob Kelleher (R): 31

(MoE: ±4.5%)

It’s ganja break time for Max Baucus.

Bonus finding: In the same poll, McCain has surged to a 53-42 lead over Obama. That’s up from a 45-44 McCain lead in July.

SurveyUSA (9/5-7, likely voters, 7/18-20 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 47 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

In Washington, SurveyUSA comes out with the first poll since March giving GOP challenger Dino Rossi a lead. Two thoughts: this poll was taken over the weekend, at the very peak of the afterglow from the Republican convention, and Rossi has also been hitting the airwaves hard with ads (although that looks to continue for the foreseeable future… the Republican Governor’s Association, not having many other places to spend its money, gave Rossi $1 million on Aug. 21).

Although the crosstabs look quite normal, there’s also something kind of fishy about how some of the numbers break down. In May, Gregoire led by 24 points among women, and trailed by 20 points among men. Today, Gregoire and Rossi are tied among women, and Rossi leads by 2 among men. The Palin pick couldn’t have had that much of an effect, could it? (Especially since polls have generally indicated that pick was more popular with men than women.) In addition, the same sample gave Obama a lead of only 49-45, which is the smallest lead he’s had in Washington since February.

The Pollster.com graph for the race can be seen here.

Public Opinion Strategies for Melissa Hart (8/17-18, likely voters):

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 49

Melissa Joan Hart (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hart held this district for three terms before the socially conservative, economically moderate Altmire took the shine out of her rising star in 2006. Despite the close margin, it’s hard for me to imagine the voters of this R+2.6 district deciding that they made a mistake in firing her, especially with Hart getting badly beaten in the money race so far.

Bonus finding: The poll shows McCain smacking Obama by a 52-39 margin in this district. Bush beat Kerry by 54-45 here in 2004.

SSP rates this race as Lean Democratic.

SurveyUSA (9/5-7, likely voters):

Andrew Rice (D): 34

Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 56

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Oof. These numbers are very different than the ones we saw in a recent DSCC internal which showed Inhofe leading by 50-41. Granted, this poll was taken during the full bloom of Palinmania! and other GOP convention absurdities, but I really doubt that that dog and pony show was responsible for the margins that we’re seeing here.

Bonus finding: McCain is creaming Obama by a 65-32 margin in the Sooner state.

Survey USA (9/5-7, likely voters, 7/18-20 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 53 (53)

Anne Northup (R): 45 (43)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

In a poll taken in the brightest (or darkest?) moments of the Republican convention hazy afterglow, John Yarmuth is still holding his own in his rematch against Anne Northup in this Louisville-based D+2 district. As you’ll recall, Yarmuth defeated ten-year incumbent Northup in 2006. Northup went on to do herself no favors by losing the 2007 gubernatorial primary to the scandal-soiled Ernie Fletcher.

This has shaped up to be a big money race, with both Yarmuth and Northup being prolific fundraisers. Yarmuth still maintains a sizable cash edge, although he lost the 2Q race.

SSP rates this race as Lean Dem.

Benenson Strategy Group for Charlie Brown (8/21-24, likely voters, 5/14-15 in parens):

Charlie Brown (D): 43 (42)

Tom McClintock (R): 41 (40)

Undecided: 15 (18)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Some nice, steady numbers for Charlie here. McClintock still outpaces Brown in terms of name recognition (76% to 67%), but the Conservative Icon begins the campaign with slightly higher negatives (32% to Brown’s 26%), and both post similar favorable ratings in the low 40s.

Brown will be fighting against a tough GOP headwind in this R+11 district as he tries to sway those undecideds, but he’s starting off in good shape.

(Thanks to Andy D. for spotting this one.)