Tag: Polls

Moore Information (not to be confused with Ivan Moore Research) for the NRSC (registered voters, 9/2-3):

Mark Begich (D): 44

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The Tarrance Group for the NRSC (likely voters, 9/2-3):

Mark Udall (D): 40

Bob Schaffer (R): 39

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Public Opinion Research for the NRSC (likely voters, 9/2-3):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 46

John Sununu (R-inc): 44

Ken Blevens (L): 5

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Now, I’m not gonna sound the alarm bell over a trio of NRSC polls taken during the GOP’s convo week, but the numbers are worth chewing on. We have already seen Stevens bouncing back in Alaska in another recent poll by Ivan Moore, although that survey showed Begich still leading by 49-46.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 47-45 in Colorado.

Ivan Moore Research polls the Alaska races (8/30-9/2, likely voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 49 (56)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (39)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I believe we could call this the “Tom Reynolds effect” of political scandals: Stevens’ numbers took a nosedive immediately after his indictment, but now that the shock is wearing off (and after his primary win), the numbers have readjusted back to a tight race. The good news is, Mark Begich is running a brilliant campaign, and is doing everything right. Let’s just hope that Stevens isn’t acquitted before election day.

And now for the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 37 (41)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38 (42)

Sean Parnell (R): 49 (46)

The numbers tell you everything you need to know about this race: we better hope that Young survives his primary. The crumb-bum currently leads by 151 votes, but guess what? There are over 25,000 uncounted absentee and provisional ballots still outstanding. This primary isn’t nearly over by any stretch of the imagination — and the electoral fate of Ethan Berkowitz could rest in the balance.

Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, Alaska is no longer in play, according to the poll. McCain crushes Obama by a 54-35 margin, up from 47-44 in July.

Howey-Gauge (8/30-31, likely voters, 4/23-24 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 35 (36)

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 53 (55)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This is the fourth consecutive poll since June showing Daniels with a big lead. A couple of years ago, My Man Mitch seemed like a juicy target to be taken down by an aggressive populist Democratic campaign. However, Daniels has turned around his once-sagging job approval ratings and has put some serious daylight between himself and JLT.

While we don’t base our ratings system entirely on polls, you can’t outrun the trend lines. SSP is shifting its rating of this race from “Lean Republican” to Likely Republican.

On the bright side, this latest Howey-Gauge poll shows McCain leading Obama only by a 45-43 margin. Can McCain afford to continue to write this state off as a guaranteed GOP win?

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Earlier in the week, we wrote about a recent SurveyUSA poll of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District that showed Republican Jay Love leading Democrat Bobby Bright by an unexpectedly wide margin: 56%-39%.

We wrote at the time that the poll, commissioned by Roll Call, didn’t really pass the sniff test. Despite the 2nd District having an African-American population that makes up between 29 and 30% of the district, SurveyUSA pegged the black vote at only 16% of their voter screen. Other pollsters, including the reputable Democratic firm Anzalone-Liszt, peg the African-American vote at 10 points higher — and consider that a conservative estimate given the historic nature of this year.

It now turns out that Roll Call itself was dissatisfied with SUSA’s work:

The poll, according to SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve, calculated black turnout at 16 percent. According to exit polling from the 2004 general election, black turnout in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District was 24 percent. Leve said black turnout was calculated at 16 percent because “that’s what we got when we conducted the survey.”

After the poll results were released by Roll Call on Tuesday, Roll Call asked SurveyUSA pollster Jay Leve to “re-weight” the results based on greater black turnout.

According to Leve, Love’s lead shrinks to 50-44 if black turnout equals 2004 levels. It shrinks even more to 49-46 – within the 4 percent margin of error – if black turnout increases to 27 percent.

“I do not consider the Democrat concerns anything other than fairly voiced,” Leve said. “It’s important to understand that there is no way to know which number is closest to the truth, because the truth is hard to know. It is safe to say that depending on what the black turnout is, the Republican will either win by quite a bit, or the race may be very close.”

“Democrat concerns”. Heh, nice one.

As I said on Tuesday, it’s very telling that even Jay Love’s internal polling has shown this race to be neck-and-neck. Alabama pollsters with a long track record in statewide politics like Anzalone and the Capital Survey Research Center have both shown Bright leading by ten. Perhaps the race isn’t quite as favorable for Bright as it was in early August (though there’s no real reason for it not to be), but it’s pretty clear that SurveyUSA popped out a dud — plain and simple.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

(Hat-tip: Left in Alabama)

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (9/1-2, likely voters):

Judy Baker (D): 38

Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 50

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Not exactly thrilling numbers, especially compared to the recent Momentum Analysis internal poll which showed Baker leading by two points in this R+6.5 open seat race. One tidbit leaves me a bit skeptical: McGramps is leading Obama by a 61-36 margin in this district. While I certainly don’t think that Obama will be neck-and-neck with McCain in this district, I would have expected him to be at least running even with John “The Haunted Tree” Kerry’s 2004 performance (he lost this district by 59-41).

I’ll have to wait until SUSA releases the full crosstabs in the morning for further comment, though.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are here. At first glance, nothing strikes me as immediately off.

Garin-Hart-Yang for David Boswell (8/23-25, likely voters):

David Boswell (D): 41

Brett Guthrie (R): 33

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is a real opportunity, no doubt. An earlier poll this summer from SurveyUSA showed Boswell, a longtime state Senator, leading Guthrie by three points for this open seat. While Kentucky’s 2nd has a PVI of R+12.9, it’s an ancestrally Democratic seat and Boswell has a good deal of name recognition from his long stint in Kentucky politics, including serving a term as the state’s Agriculture Commissioner.

However, if Boswell hopes to win this one, he’s gonna need to bundle some money together, and fast. When we last checked in with the Bos at the end of June, he had only $45K in the bank (compared to Guthrie’s $661K). Former Senate candidate (and richie rich) Greg Fischer has stepped forward in recent weeks to help money find Boswell, and other Kentucky Dems were pushing this race hard in Denver. However, Boswell needs to crank it up in order to seize this opportunity.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps (8/20-26, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 50

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Damn, son. Those are some great numbers for Kay Hagan, and this is the second poll in a row to show her with a lead over Liddy Dole. In fact, the Pollster.com graph is looking downright exciting as of late.

Now, Hagan and the DSCC have landed several weeks worth of unanswered hits on Dole, and the NRSC has only started to fire back this week. The Democratic attacks on Dole (e.g. on her effectiveness, her weak relationship with her state, and her lockstep record with George Bush) have been hitting at all the right targets. I really like this trend, and am hoping that the post-Labor Day polls confirm what we’re seeing here.

Bonus findings: The same poll also finds McCain leading Obama by 47-44, and McCrory and Perdue tied at 46-46 in the gubernatorial race.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Martin Heinrich (D): 51

Darren White (R): 46

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Nice. Those are some very swanky numbers for Heinrich. However, these ones are even swankier for Team Blue:

Barack Obama (D): 55

John McCain (R): 41

If Obama is doing that well in the 1st District (which Kerry won by only three points in 2004), that bodes very well for Obama’s statewide efforts here. It’s also an ominous sign for Sheriff Disco White — he’ll have to swim strongly upstream in order to win here if these numbers are accurate.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Comparing this poll to SUSA’s last poll in NM-01 (from November 2006), the D-R breakdown is basically unchanged, but this most recent poll is significantly older (46% under 50 vs. 59% under 50 in 2006) and less Hispanic (24% vs. 37%). So on its face, it doesn’t seem like the sample was juked in Heinrich’s favor — if anything, the opposite.

Public Policy Polling (8/25-27, likely voters, 7/2-5 in parens):

Larry Kissell (D): 39 (36)

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 44 (43)

Thomas Hill (L): 4 (7)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Hayes still maintains the edge, on account of his strength among Democrats (19% to Kissell’s 69%), Republicans (83-8) and Independents (43-27). But he’s still well under 50%, and there are ominous signs up the ballot in this R+3 district: Kay Hagan is leading Dole by 45-41 in the state’s U.S. Senate race, and Obama and McCain’t are tied at 43% each.

This one is gonna be a slugfest.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 39

Jay Love (R): 56

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Alright, on its face, those are some nasty and disappointing numbers. They’re also way out of line with all the polls we’ve seen of this race so far; internal polls released from both the Bright and Love camps show a dramatically different race. Bright’s polling (by Anzalone-Liszt, a firm with a hot streak this year) from earlier this month showed the Democrat leading by 10 points, and Love’s latest poll from late July showed the Republican leading by a mere two points. A Capital Survey Research Center poll from earlier this month also showed Bright leading by ten points.

So what gives? The poll’s innards give us a big clue. While Alabama’s 2nd CD is 30% African-American, SUSA has pegged the black vote at only 16% of the survey’s sample. Now, I’m not sure what pollsters like Anzalone, CSRC, or even McLaughlin peg the black vote at, but do we really think that the African-American vote is going to be that depressed this year?

Bright wins the black vote by 82-11, and Love wins the white vote by 66-30. If you re-weight this poll to bring the black vote up to 30%, Love’s lead shrinks to 50-46. That’s still a much brighter picture for Love since the early August polls, but it’s unclear what’s happened since then that would boost his numbers so dramatically (ALFA and the peanut farmers endorsing him?), especially given that Bright got a big boost from Dothan GOP Mayor Pat Thomas’ endorsement a week before this poll was in the field.

I like SUSA’s work a lot, but I suspect they’ve made a misfire here.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.