Tag: Polls

Lot’s of internal polls to digest in recent days. Let’s kill ’em all in one post.

FL-13:

Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC (8/23-24, likely voters, July in parens and 3/5-6 in brackets):

Christine Jennings (D): 30 (30) [37]

Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 48 (44) [53]

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Woof. That’s not a spread that I like to see, but at least Buchanan is under 50%. After being hit by a new lawsuit every week for the past month and a half (or so) on allegations of consumer fraud and illegal campaign fundraising, Buchanan’s camp released this poll to ensure folks that everything is hunky-dory. We haven’t seen numbers from this race from any other source than Buchanan’s campaign, so I’m inclined to believe these ballpark figures. However, with so many legal headaches, I wouldn’t say that Buchanan is out of the woods yet.

FL-21:

Hill Research Associates for Lincoln Diaz-Balart (6/19-22, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 36

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Diaz-Balart pumped out this somewhat moldy poll in an attempt to refute a recent SUSA poll showing Martinez leading D-B the Lesser by two. Given that a Bendixen poll of this race from June showed Martinez trailing only by four points, I’m inclined to believe that the numbers are much tighter than Diaz-Balart’s cherry-picked poll suggests.

IL-18:

Public Opinion Strategies for Aaron Schock (8/18-20, likely voters):

Colleen Callahan (D): 27

Aaron Schock (R): 56

Sheldon Schafer (G): 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Ugh. Crazy Aaron Schock doesn’t deserve this.

PA-10:

Momentum Analysis for Christopher Carney (8/19-21, likely voters):

Christopher Carney (D-inc): 54

Chris Hackett (R-inc): 27

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Yeah, I dunno, dudes. SurveyUSA also recently tested this R+8 district, and found Carney only holding a 49-45 lead. I’m a little more inclined to believe that this race is closer to SUSA’s estimate than Carney’s poll, but I still feel pretty good about his chances.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Ashwin Madia (D): 41

Erik Paulsen (R): 44

Other: 10

(MoE: ±4.0%)

These numbers are pretty much the spitting image of a GQR internal poll conducted for state Sen. Terri Bonoff earlier this year. In that poll, Paulsen was leading Madia by 43-40.

While GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad held this district with ease for many years, it’s a tightly-contested district on the presidential level. In 2004, Bush edged Kerry by three points here, and in SUSA’s polling, Obama is squeaking past McCain here by 48-46.

One finding from SUSA’s crosstabs is pretty, well, unique:

Despite the fact that Obama is 47 years old and Madia is just in his 30s, it was Republican candidates who had the slight edge among younger voters in the district. Among voters 18-49, Paulsen led Madia, 45 percent to 38 percent. Madia was preferred by voters 50 and older, 44 percent to 42 percent.

The same trend held true in the presidential matchup. McCain led among the younger set of voters, 48 percent to 46 percent, while Obama was ahead among those 50 and older, 50 percent to 45 percent.

Madia has just gone up on the airwaves with a soft introductory ad, but it’s worth pointing out the incredibly frenzied fundraising pace of both Madia and GOP state Rep. Erik Paulsen. This one could be a tight battle all the way to the finish line.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Greg Smith and Associates (8/18-22, likely voters):

Larry LaRocco (D): 29

Jim Risch (R): 41

Rex Rammell (I): 3

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This pretty much confirms Research 2000‘s poll of this race for the Great Orange Satan, which pegged the race at 42-32, with Republican-turned-Independent Rammell picking up five points. At this point, the disgruntled rancher doesn’t appear to be much of a factor.

It seems telling that Risch can’t soar much above 40% in a state that Bush won twice with 67% and 69%, respectively. However, it’s not going to be incredibly difficult for him to push what are undoubtedly conservative-leaning undecideds onto his side of the fence come election day.

Still, Risch’s continued mediocrity makes this race worth keeping an eye on.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/24-26, likely voters):

Raul Martinez (D): 48

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Martinez, the former mayor of Hialeah, is a larger than life but at times somewhat controversial figure in the Miami area. He was always expected to give Diaz-Balart the stiffest challenge of his political life in this R+6.2 district, but seeing him ahead in a poll this early is fairly jolting. Another poll from Bendixen earlier this summer showed Diaz-Balart leading, but only by four points.

There’s no doubt that South Florida is changing for the better. Since 2006, Democrats have cut a 28,000 voter registration deficit in the 21st CD to a lead of only 15,000 for the GOP. And the numbers are getting bluer by the month. Similar trends are evident in FL-18 and FL-25, where progressive fighters Annette Taddeo and Joe Garcia are waging strong campaigns against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart, respectively.

Need more evidence that the Miami area is trending Dem? Just check out the Presidential numbers — despite this being a district that Bush carried by 14 points in 2004 and one that is part of the backbone of the GOP’s statewide foundation, Barack Obama and John McCain are tied at 48% each in the district. That is some seriously alarming news for the GOP, both for this election and for the long-term.

ARG (8/18-20, likely voters, 7/21 in parentheses):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 52 (58)

John Sununu (R-inc): 41 (36)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Ahoy there, me hearties! Cap’n Jeanne Shaheen be sendin’ th’ scurvy dog John Sununu on a voyage to Davy Jones’ locker, or so say the landlubbers at ARRRRRRRRRRRRG! Ye olde poll may have been a foul outlier, but that scalawag Sununu’s numbers still put him in more trouble than a bilge rat tryin’ to swim the Channel.

Joe Kenney also looks t’ take a long walk off a short plank, 58-32, as Lord Governor John Lynch will be dancin’ a spirited hornpipe come November.

PPP (8/20-23, likely voters, 7/23-27 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 43 (46)

Pat McCrory (R): 38 (37)

Michael Munger (L): 4 (6)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

PPP’s new poll of the open North Carolina gubernatorial race gives Democratic Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue a five-point lead over Republican Pat McCrory, the mayor of Charlotte. It’s a bit of downward drift from last month, but much more comfortable than their June numbers, which had her up by only 42-41.

This is quite consistent with Rasmussen’s polling of the race. The August 13 Rasmussen (which SSP unfortunately let slip through the cracks until now) pegs it as a six-point race for Perdue, 51-45, improved from 47-46 in the previous poll in June. No pollster (including SurveyUSA or Civitas) has seen McCrory with a lead since May.

PPP also polled all the races for the Justice League Council of State; Democrats lead all but two of the races (Ag Commissioner and Labor Commissioner). Most of the leads are pretty narrow, but incumbent Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper (seen as probably the likeliest challenger against the underwhelming Richard Burr in NC-Sen 2010) is thumping his R opposition, Bob Crumley, 48-30.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/23-25, likely voters):

Chris Carney (D-inc): 49

Chris Hackett (R): 45

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Carney is right under the magic 50% bubble of vulnerability, and Hackett is nipping at his heels. Carney’s favorables (40% favorable, 23% unfavorable, 30% neutral and 6% unknown) are okay, but clearly indicate that the freshman incumbent could stand to boost his profile at home. This race is shaping up to be pretty close.

In better news, and continuing a trend that we’ve seen in other red districts (CO-04 and KS-02), voters prefer a candidate who touts alternative sources of energy over one who advocates increased offshore drilling by a 54-36 margin. Bear in mind that this a conservative R+8 district, so you might expect the GOP’s pro-drilling talking points to sell well here. Not really, it turns out. Additionally, a full 40% of voters in the 10th blame the oil companies first and foremost for the high cost of gasoline. It won’t be a surprise to see the familiar attacks on “big oil” be a common thread in Democratic messaging here.

The poll also finds that John McCain leads Barack Obama by 50-41 in the 10th District; considering that John Kerry was blown out by a 60-40 margin here in 2004, Obama is in good shape to make it at least a slightly closer race in this district. And if McCain can’t rack up the score convincingly in a district like this, what chance does he have of winning Pennsylvania?

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Public Policy Polling (8/20-23, likely voters, 7/23-27 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 42 (40)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 39 (49)

Chris Cole (L): 5 (4)

Undecided: 13 (7)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Boom! That’s the power of a DSCC moneybomb at work, people: 69% of voters say that they have seen the DSCC’s attack ads, and clearly it has helped push the needle big time here. Dole’s support among African-Americans has nearly halved, as well, to 14%, and Dole’s lead among whites is now only 10 points strong: 47-37.

There’s still plenty of time on the clock, but things must be getting tense at Dole’s campaign headquarters right about now.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/22-24, likely voters):

Betsy Markey (D): 50

Marilyn Musgrave (R-in): 43

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Stunning numbers for Betsy Markey, and they confirm an internal poll from earlier this year that showed Musgrave trailing by the same margin: 43-36.

What’s more, Musgrave’s personal popularity, despite her recent efforts to present a more moderate image. A full 51% of voters view her unfavorably, while only 31% have a favorable opinion of her.

On the presidential level, it looks like the R+8.5 district is undergoing a sea change: McCain only leads Obama by 48-46 here, which is an extremely far cry from the 58-41 drubbing that Bush delivered to Kerry in the district in 2004.

Once again, SUSA takes the pulse of the energy debate, and asks voters if they would cast their ballots for a candidate advocating increased offshore drilling or one who promotes alternative sources of energy. Despite all the assumptions of drilling being the popular choice, once again, the candidate emphasizing alternative energy leads by a 58-34 margin.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but I think a rating change is due in short order.

Come on, feel the noise.

EPIC-MRA (8/20-22, likely voters, 2/27-3/2 in parens):

Mark Schauer (D): 40 (40)

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 43 (50)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Some very nice movement for Schauer — or, to be more precise, a nice nosedive for Timmy Walberg. The spread isn’t too far off from a Schauer internal from earlier this year that showed Walberg trailing leading by three.

But wait, there’s more! A whopping 78% of voters feel that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, and an even higher 82% feel things in Michigan are pretty seriously on the wrong track. Bush’s unfavorables are at 61% and his job disapproval rating is at 73% in the 7th CD — a nice anchor to tie around Walberg’s neck. Walberg’s own job rating is quite dismal: 32% positive and 43% negative. McCain leads Obama by 43-39 in the district.

And now, for the fightin’ 9th. EPIC-MRA (8/21-23, likely voters):

Gary Peters (D): 36

Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 43

Jack Kevorkian (I): 4

Adam Goodman (L): 5

(MoE: ±4.9%)

These numbers very closely resemble a DCCC poll from last November that showed crumb-bum Joe Knollenberg leading Gary Peters by 42-35, despite the wild card of having Jack Kevorkian (yes, that Jack Kevorkian) on the ballot.

The other numbers are good for Peters: 73% and 82% say that the U.S. and the state of Michigan is headed seriously in the wrong direction, and Bush’s job approval is at 71% negative. Knollenberg’s job rating, too, is in the dumps: 35-47. Obama holds a 43-39 lead in the district — a flip of the 7th’s results. After neutral biographies are read of both candidates, Peters propels to a 43-39 lead over Knollenberg.

These races are just heating up, and Peters has just gone up on the air with a pair of bio ads (see here and here). These two races are gonna blow up in short order.