Tag: Polls

Momentum Analysis for Judy Baker (8/12-14, likely voters):

Judy Baker (D): 41

Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 39

Tamara Millay (L): 3

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Nice numbers for Baker, whose strength among women voters (45-36) and stronger base support (78-12 among Dems, compared to Luetkemeyer’s 66-14 among Republicans) are propelling her to an early lead.

Luetkemeyer also appears to be a bit dinged up after his Club For Growth-tainted primary, as his favorability (33-16) is more mixed than Baker’s (30-8).

It’s a very solid start for Baker, but getting to 50% is the real challenge. SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(Big hat-tip to Wayne in Missouri for the catch.)

PS: Check out the Luetkemeyer campaign’s psychotic reaction to the poll:

“Judy Baker’s poll is like a NASCAR driver bragging about being ahead after the first lap of this weekend’s Sharpie 500, which in case Judy didn’t know is a car race enjoyed by ‘those people’ often derided by liberal Democrats like herself,” said Luetkemeyer spokesman Paul Sloca in a statement.

“Those people”?? Talk about grasping at straws and then some.

Here’s a pair of polls in deep red GOP districts that you don’t see polled every day: Kansas’ 1st and 4th CDs, the state’s two most conservative districts.

First, KS-01: SurveyUSA (8/17-19, likely voters):

James Bordonaro (D): 13

Jerry Moran (R-inc): 77

Other: 4

(MoE: ±3.5%)

At a PVI of R+20.3, Kansas’ sprawling 4th CD is the 9th most Republican district in the nation. Moran won by a 79-20 margin in 2006, and it looks like nothing much will change this year.

And now for the Wichita-based 4th district. SurveyUSA (8/17-19, likely voters):

Donald Betts (D): 30

Todd Tiahrt (R-inc): 61

Other: 5

(MoE: ±4.2%)

The 4th CD is a tough district for any Dem to crack, but it’s obviously not the hopeless case that the 1st is. At a PVI of R+12.2, the 4th CD hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress since 1992, when voters gave Rep. Dan Glickman his final term in office.

Donald Betts, an African-American state Senator with a charmed political career in Kansas politics so far, is giving the district a go, but it’ll be very difficult for him to close the gap, especially with only $68K left in his campaign account. Still, anytime you have a state senator running for higher office, the race is worth watching.

Insider Advantage for the Southern Political Report (8/19, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 40

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Hooah. Those are some damn fine numbers for Kay Hagan, and while it’s too early to tell if this is part of a coming polling trend, this could be a sign that the negative ad campaign by the DSCC, Majority Action and most recently, MoveOn.org, may be having some effect on Dole’s favorables. Hagan herself has taken back to the airwaves recently with a series of new ads – certainly also a key part of the equation.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-43 in North Carolina. Hagan currently outperforms Obama among white voters (who break 54-33 for McCain, and 46-34 for Dole), but lags Obama’s performance among African-Americans (who favor Obama by 75-17, but Hagan only by 61-24). If Hagan can cut down on cross-over voting among black voters and make a steady gain among whites, she could be in a good position for an upset by election day.

Encouraging numbers, all around.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Rasmussen (8/19, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/23 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 52 (51)

John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (45)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Shaheen climbs back up to a nine point lead over Bununu. Right now, most observers seem to be waiting with bated breath to see what happens when Sununu starts to, well, actually campaign. He’s still sitting on a $5 million war chest that has largely gone untouched this cycle. When he starts to spend, will the gap close? Or will he end up like Rick Santorum, where all the money and brilliant ads in the world could not save his sorry ass from defeat in 2006?

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

(Hat-tip: conspiracy)

McLaughlin & Associates for the Club For Growth (8/18, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):

Don Young (R-inc): 42 (43)

Sean Parnell (R): 44 (39)

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8 (10)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Parnell takes the lead by a hair — but just a hair. This race just might end up coming down to a photo finish. (H/T: The Politico)

The Club For Brain Growth continues to do everything they can to push the empty suit of Sean Parnell across the finish line, including the release of this new attack ad yesterday that heavily hypes Sarah Palin’s endorsement:

Hiding behind Palin is a smart strategy for the Club, whose leaders have probably never even set foot in Alaska and whose agenda includes stopping the flow of controversial earmarks to the state.

In his corner, Don Young picked up an endorsement of his own this week — from libertarian nutball Rep. Ron Paul:

Paul, the 72-year-old congressman from Texas whose maverick presidential bid drew wide support in Alaska, sent out a letter to his supporters here urging them to vote for Young.

“Don and I have served together in Congress for many years, and I consider him a friend,” Paul wrote in the letter. “Don has been an outspoken voice against environmental extremists over the years and has strongly opposed the types of federal regulatory overreach advocated in the name of environmentalism.”

Strange bedfellows, indeed.

SurveyUSA (8/16-18, likely voters, 6/21-23 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 38 (45)

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 52 (50)

Andy Horning (L): 3 (-)

Christopher Stried (I): 3 (-)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Tough numbers for Long Thompson. Indeed, the Pollster composite for this race is getting really ugly — yet another reason why Obama cannot afford to tap Evan Bayh as his running mate.

Bonus finding: John McCain, on the upswing as of late, has pulled ahead to a five-point lead in Indiana. Obama posted a single point lead here in June.

Today, a continuation of a short series looking into the factors affecting the current political climate.  It’s no secret that the country isn’t too happy about the economy, the war in Iraq, and the direction the country is headed in.  But for me at least, I like to see the data.  First, the right track/wrong track question:

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The trend is clear, the numbers are huge: almost three quarters say we’re off on the wrong track.  Much more below.

It is also interesting to see that there was a clear uptick in those that say the country is on the right track just before the 2004 and 2006 elections, but not in Fall 2005 or 2007.  It looks like we’re on track for another one now in 2008 as well.  Campaign dollars at work?  Optimism that one’s preferred party will win?

A longer look back shows the wrong track numbers were also about this high for the 1976, 1980, 1992, and 1994 elections:

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Iraq

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The public continues to believe that the war in Iraq is not worth it.  There’s not much news here over the past year; the economy has taken precedence in the minds of many voters more recently.

The Economy

There have been dramatic changes in the perception of the economy in the past year (I’m not going to go into much of the actual economic data; after all, in politics, perception is reality).  The numbers simply dove off a cliff.  About 80% think the economy is not doing that great (left) and hardly anybody thinks it’s getting better (right):

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These numbers are just as bad as they were in 1980 and 1990:

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Rising prices surely are contributing to opinions of the economy; here’s the price for milk and gas over the past few years:

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Trust and the Issues

So which party do voters trust on the issues they see as important?  Rasmussen has been asking that question every month for more than a year now, so we can see how things have developed:

There’s nothing major, although it looks like some trends away from Democrats on Iraq and national security, while there’s been some improvement on the economy.  At the same time, Rasmussen (and others) also show that the importance of Iraq in voter’s minds has been decreasing while the economy takes precedence.

In other words, from the perspective of issues the voters care about, the political environment is becoming only more favorable to Democrats.

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Polling numbers can be found at pollingreport.com unless otherwiese noted. This is the second in a series looking at the evolution of the political scene since the 2004 and 2006 elections.  The first discussed Bush’s approval ratings.  Tomorrow, information on party approval, identification and some House numbers; after that, a look at fundraising.  Cross posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.

The phantom poll of Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd CD is now unmasked. SSP has obtained a copy of the poll’s internals, and we’ll share the top lines with you below.

Anzalone Liszt (7/27-8/2, likely voters):

Jim Esch (D): 38

Lee Terry (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4.0%)

In 2006, Jim Esch held Lee Terry, a five-term but largely unaccomplished congressman, to a surprisingly close 55-45 margin, despite running an underfunded campaign in an R+9 district. Judging by these numbers, if Esch can assemble more resources than the $400K he raised in 2006, he might be able to run an even closer race. Indeed, with only 48% name recognition (to Terry’s 93%), he clearly has room to grow.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats only trail Republicans by five points (42-37), which, all things considered, seems to be a dramatic turnaround from the 22 and 18-point drubbings that Bush delivered to Kerry and Gore here in 2004 and 2000, respectively. If Dems are ever going to make a breakthrough in Nebraska, you would figure that Omaha would be ground zero for their resurgence.

Here’s another key number from the poll:

Barack Obama (D): 42

John McCain (R): 46

Obama’s within striking distance of McCain, and if he can manage to win here, he’ll pick off a solid red electoral vote. I wouldn’t bet the bank on it, but the numbers clearly show you why Terry keeps on mouthing off about the surge of “Obama-Terry voters” in the district.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Rasmussen (8/17, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/9 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 56 (51)

John Kennedy (R): 39 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Landrieu delivers a big kick in the pants to Kennedy in this poll, which is always fun to see. Since the last poll, Landrieu has blitzed the state with several ad buys, and these numbers may well be showing the effects of her cash advantage. On the other hand, Rasmussen doesn’t exactly have a clean record of not producing wild outliers, so it’s probably wise to wait for a confirmatory poll or two before anyone declares that Landrieu is enjoying a “bounce”.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

It’s been quite a while since I crunched some political numbers, so I thought I’d check back in with a series of diaries.  Today, the latest edition of the Bush approval map.

Click to enlarge.

My, that’s pretty!

Memo to Democrats:  this is an anvil for the falling Republicans.  Please use it.

For perspective, at the time of the 2006 Democratic electoral wave, this is what the map looked like:

Click to enlarge.

So why am I posting this on Swing State Project?  As I wrote many times before the 2006 election, low approval ratings represent an opportunity for Democrats, not a guarantee.  As it turned out, those who did not approve of Bush in 2006 voted for their Democratic House incumbent.  And those who did approve of Bush voted for their Republican House incumbent.  If a similar dynamic plays out this year, it means almost all Democratic House incumbents are safe, while almost any Republican could be unseated by the right candidate running a good, well-funded campaign.

So Bush approval represented, in 2006 at least, a minimum performance level for incumbent Republicans.  We can see a similar sort of effect in this year’s presidential race.  McCain does not poll worse than Bush’s approval in any state, but he comes close in a few places (Hawaii and Wyoming).  Here’s a map that shows the difference between McCain’s numbers (from Nate Silver’s trend-adjusted polling averages, captured last week) to Bush’s approval ratings:

Click to enlarge.

Note that this map does not show which states are most competitive.  Instead, it shows where McCain is more popular than Bush.  People who say they will vote for McCain but do not approve of Bush could do so for a number of reasons, and the numbers don’t tell us why or whether they’re different in different regions of the country.  It’s probably safe to say that there’s a home state effect in Hawaii, though.  McCain does best in comparison to Bush’s approval in Appalachia and the Northeast, and worst in the West and the Deep South.  It is suspiciously familiar to the Democratic primary maps.

Tomorrow, the series continues with a look at the biggest issues: the economy and Iraq.  After that, party approval, identification, and some House numbers.  And finally, if the FEC gets its numbers out, some fundraising numbers.

Cross posted at DailyKos and Open Left.