Tag: Polls

Capital Survey Research Center (8/6-7,11, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 47

Jay Love (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.4%)

More great numbers for Bright, and they confirm the spread of a recent Anzalone-Liszt internal (conducted just days before this poll) which had Bright leading Love by 50-40.

Love has countered with his own internal poll showing him leading Bright by 41-39. Those numbers may very well have been accurate snapshot of the race, but Love’s poll was conducted in the immediate afterglow of his run-off victory against Harri Ann Smith, and before Bright’s Montgomery and Dothan ad buys had sunken in.

An excerpt from the polling memo is available below the fold.

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 41 (42)

Liddy Dole (R-inc): 46 (54)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (-)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

So the gap closes from 12 to 5 points, but here’s the rub: SUSA is now including Libertarian Chris Cole in the match-up, and it seems very doubtful that he’ll be able to perform this well on election day. For now, Cole is taking heavy chunks from males (11%), voters aged 18-34 (12%), and independents (21%). Those numbers will dissipate by November — likely in both directions.

It’s still good news for Hagan, who went up on the air with her first general election ad today. Dole’s also been hit recently by ads from the DSCC and Majority Action. Hopefully the two prongs of Hagan’s positives and the DSCC’s attacks will help to keep the numbers moving in the right direction.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: RandySF)

SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 6/13-16 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 40 (46)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 52 (50)

(MoE: ±4%)

The June survey may have reflected a bit of a post-primary bounce for Lunsford, who hasn’t really been able to land any solid blows on Mitch McConnell since then. All things considered, Lunsford isn’t that far behind the heavily entrenched McConnell, and there’s still plenty of time left on the clock for this one to get interesting.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

UPDATE: We get emails. Despite Kentucky having a Democratic voter registration advantage of 57D-33R-9I (the same breakdown of SUSA’s June poll), this time SUSA pegs the electorate at 50D-39R-9I. If you adjust the numbers back to the June breakdown, the gap closes to five points. I’m not so sure that we should place much faith in such a method, but it is true that most (if not all) of SUSA’s Kentucky polls from 2007 pegged Democrats at least a few points higher than 50% of the electorate.

(H/T: conspiracy)

The Mellman Group for the DSCC (8/6-10, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 36

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 42

Allen Buckley (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

Very nice numbers for Jim Martin. That’s is what some in the biz would like to call “striking distance”.

Chambliss’ job approval rating is only 37-38 — soft numbers for an incumbent.

Yeah, Chambliss has raised a ton of money, but this is a race that the DSCC has their eyes on, and we could see the committee getting frisky here.

Rasmussen (8/7, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/15 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (46)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 50 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Without including leaners (although I don’t see why one would prefer this metric), Smith’s lead is 47-39; Merkley had led by 43-41 in this category in July.

Despite Smith’s lead in two consecutive polls, this one could be anyone’s game come fall.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Public Policy Polling (8/5-7, likely voters, 7/9-10):

Mark Udall (D): 47 (47)

Bob Schaffer (R): 41 (38)

Undecided: 12 (14)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

A slight tightening, but Udall still has the edge.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Bonus findings: In a hypothetical 2010 matchup, Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar leads Tom Tancredo by 49-37, and Secretary of State (and CO-06 candidate) Mike Coffman by 46-38. In the Presidential race, Obama is holding onto a 48-44 lead over McCain.

Rasmussen (8/7, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/7 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 53 (49)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 42 (38)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Despite a flurry of paid and earned media that came with his gubernatorial primary victory over Sarah Steelman earlier this week, it looks like Kenny Hulshof’s nomination bounce has not arrived. He’ll have a steep hill to climb if he intends to pull even with Democrat Jay Nixon, the state’s longtime attorney general.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Anzalone-Liszt for Bobby Bright (8/3-6, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 50

Jay Love (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Impressive numbers for Bobby Bright, especially when you consider the district’s generic ballot (45R-33D) and partisan self-identification (44R-36D). And while the primary gave Jay Lovin’ a huge boost in name recognition (74%), Bright’s name ID is only five points higher (79%), throwing a bit of sand on the assumption that Love would pull ahead as soon as he increased his profile in the district.

Bright’s personal favorability is very high in the district, with 63% rating him favorably and only 16% unfavorably. Additionally, his job approval ratings as mayor of Montgomery are even higher: 68-9.

By a 3-to-1 margin, voters say that Love is running a negative campaign. So while his primary did boost his numbers somewhat, he’s still dealing with a bit of a hangover from its nasty tone.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we’re liking what we see here today.

(H/T: Political Parlor)

UPDATE: Jay Lovin’ has released his own internal poll. McLaughlin & Associates (7/21-22, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 39

Jay Love (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Well, both camps agree on one thing; as they say in tennis “40 Love”. (H/T: Andy Dufresne)

That’s what everybody’s sayin’.

Public Policy Polling takes another look at the 2010 Senate race (7/30-8/2, likely voters):

Bob Graham (D): 51

Mel Martinez (R-inc): 31

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D): 38

Mel Martinez (R-inc): 37

(MoE: ±3.5%)

These are match-ups that you helped pick, although I’m not sure if there’s anyone who really thinks that Bob Graham would bust out of his retirement in order to run again for the Senate. Still, it would be a romp if he was willing.

A late June poll from PPP showed Martinez tied with Dem Rep. Robert Wexler and trailing Florida CFO Alex Sink by six points. It looks like this one will be a top tier race in 2010.

SurveyUSA (8/2-4, likely voters):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47

Steve Stivers (R): 44

Don Eckhart (I): 7

(MoE: ±4.2%)

A Benenson Strategy Group poll from May showed Kilroy leading Stivers by 47-37, so we at least know that Kilroy is awfully close to the 50% mark.

Judging by the crosstabs, independent Don Eckhart picks up support fairly equally across the board, but I would guess that many voters are merely parking their votes with an unknown option for now, and are instead truly undecided about their options. Eckhart’s previous claim to fame was an independent bid against Stivers for the state Senate four years ago, where he claimed 9% of the vote. Eckhart was endorsed by the Ohio Right to Life both then and now, so perhaps he might peel off a few wingnuts from the GOP’s right flank. Then again, 7% of pro-choice voters chose Eckhart in this poll…

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.