Tag: Polls

SurveyUSA (8/2-4, likely voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 37

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 49

Dave Brownlow (C): 8

(MoE: ±4%)

A few things seem a bit funky here, most notably Gordon Smith’s improbably high 53-29 performance among voters aged 18-34.

The partisan breakdown of the sample, at 37R-41D-22I, is also perhaps a bit suspect. SUSA’s partisan sample of Oregon has fluctuated in recent months, from 32R-44D in April to 32R-48D in May to 41R-42D in June. Where lies the truth? CNN’s 2004 exit poll pegged turnout as 34R-32D-34I, but surely the landscape is now tinted with a bluer hue four years later. In fact, according to the latest voter registration numbers from the OR SoS, Dems have a 43%-33% voter registration advantage over the GOP as of June. That’s a significant advantage that you don’t see reflected in SUSA’s model.

That said, Merkley’s 63-28 performance among Democrats in the poll is of concern, as it could reflect Gordon Smith’s recent bipartisan bear-hugs of Barack Obama and lately even John Forbes Kerry (whom Gordo once harshly criticized as advocating “all kinds of socialism”). However, I still think this race is closer than SUSA’s latest survey suggests.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Tulsa World has the latest Sooner Poll of Oklahoma’s Senate race (7/19-23, likely voters, 12/16-19/07 in parens):

Andrew Rice (D): 30 (19)

Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 52 (60)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

The gap has closed a bit, but we’re not seeing anything remarkable here yet. However, as the Rice campaign points out, it’s worth noting that this poll was conducted just before Rice began his TV advertising campaign (his latest ad, released today, is available here) and before he won his primary.

On another interesting note, Roll Call takes note of the Rice campaign hiring some former DSCC staffers for key positions:

Rice, a state Senator who remains a heavy underdog in the race, announced some staff additions, including hiring Phil Singer as a communications consultant.

Singer recently served as a communications strategist on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) presidential campaign and last cycle was communications director at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Rice has also hired Geri Prado, former deputy national political and field director for Clinton’s presidential team, as campaign manager. Last cycle, Prado was deputy political director for the DSCC.

Despite Rice’s underdog status, DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) has been high on the candidate’s potential. The hiring of Singer and Prado could signal that the committee is taking a special interest in this race as the fall approaches.

First off, the GOP gubernatorial primary. SurveyUSA (7/29-31, likely voters, 5/16-18 in parens):

Kenny Hulshof: 45 (29)

Sarah Steelman: 33 (25)

Other: 8 (14)

Undecided: 15 (32)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Looks like Hulshof almost has this one in the bag just a few days before the state’s August 5th primary. Now let’s take a look at the general election.

SurveyUSA (7/29-31, likely voters, 5/16-18 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 48 (57)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 42 (33)

Jay Nixon (D): 50 (58)

Sarah Steelman (R): 41 (33)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

I fully expected this race to narrow, but that’s some big movement. This is one example of the benefits of a primary; with Steelman and Hulshof barnstorming the state and airing ads introducing themself to voters, they’ve built back some strength for Team Red. Other polls from Rasmussen and PPP earlier this month confirmed the race getting tighter. Nixon still has the edge, but it appears that it won’t be the cakewalk that some had predicted.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

UPDATE: Okay, here’s something important that I didn’t notice earlier. In SUSA’s May poll, the partisan sample was 30R-45D-19I, while this poll is 36R-38D-20I. Quite a big shift. Which sample is more reasonable? PPP’s most recent poll used a 34R-39D-28I sample, while Research 2000 used a 36R-40D-24I sample in their most recent poll.

Perhaps a 15-point sample advantage for Dems was pushing it.

SurveyUSA (7/30-31, likely voters, 5/16-18 in parens):

Kay Barnes (D): 44 (39)

Sam Graves (R-inc): 48 (49)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Some very nice movement for Kay Barnes, the former mayor of Kansas City, since we last checked in on this race in May. The biggest volatility is among women voters, who broke evenly (43-43) for both candidates in May, but now favor Barnes by a 54-37 margin in the R+4.8 district.

This race has already been eventful, with Graves famously airing over-the-top ads hitting Barnes for attending a fundraiser with Nancy Pelosi, and Barnes responding accordingly.

SSP currently rates MO-06 as Lean Republican.

Ivan Moore Research releases a pair of Alaska polls, taken before and after Stevens’ indictment (7/30-31, likely voters, 7/18-22 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 56 (51)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 35 (43)

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Since the indictment, Alaskans aren’t feeling as warm towards Stevens — that’s no surprise. The percentage of voters with a positive impression of the incumbent fell from 55% to 44% in Moore’s second poll. His negatives also rose accordingly — from 38% to 48% two weeks later.

Despite his favorables taking a hit, Stevens still has a commanding lead in the GOP primary:

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 59 (70)

Dave Cuddy (R): 19 (21)

Other: 2 (2)

Undecided: 20 (7)

(n=219)

“Other” presumably includes self-funding beardo Vic Vickers, whose frequent swipes against “Big Oil” aren’t likely to get him very far in a resource-dependent state.

Things are certainly looking good right now for Mark Begich.

Bonus finding: In the 7/18-22 poll, McCain leads Obama by a mere three points in the state — 47% to 44%.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/28-30, likely voters, 4/28-30 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 42 (41)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 50 (48)

(MoE: ±4%)

Those are very similar numbers to the most recent PPP poll, which had Dole up by 49-40. Markos makes the case that the numbers could be a tad inflated for Dole:

Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it’s likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn’t think so…

It’s worth noting that PPP used an even smaller sample of black voters in their poll, at 20%. PPP has also highlighted the African-American vote as one area where Dole overperforms other Republicans; in their poll, Hagan leads by 63-25 among black voters. However, this most recent R2K survey paints a much different picture, with blacks breaking for Hagan by an 81-7 margin. Conversely, R2K finds that Dole leads by 68-27 among white voters, while PPP pegs her lead at a tighter 55-35 among the group.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

UPDATE: Tom Jensen over at PPP has debunked the 2004 exit poll composition here and here. (H/T: Political Realm)

Rasmussen (7/29, likely voters incl. leaners, 6/25 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 42 (41)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 52 (48)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This is about where I’d expect the race to be at this point. Lunsford is within striking distance, but will need to a few good hits on McConnell to close the gap.

SSP currently rates this race as “Likely Republican“.

UPDATE: Yet another poll showing roughly the same picture. Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/28-30, likely voters, 5/7-9 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 38 (36)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 49 (48)

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/28-30, likely voters):

Larry LaRocco (D): 32

Jim Risch (R): 42

Rex Rammell (I): 5

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The last poll that we’ve seen of this race, a Lake Research internal for LaRocco from late May, showed a 43-28-6 split. Voters in deep red Idaho still don’t seem to be taking much of a liking to Risch, despite him being the only candidate who has aired statewide ads for this race so far.

LaRocco will have a lot of work to do in order to pull even with Risch (and we can’t deny that he’s certainly been working hard), but the dynamics of this race — especially with right-wing independent Rammell hoping to play the spoiler — could give us something interesting to watch in the fall.

SSP has now added ID-Sen to its list of Races to Watch.

Rasmussen (7/30, likely voters, 7/17 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 50 (50)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 37 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

In a testament to Stevens’ legacy in the state, 50% of voters still have a favorable opinion of the senator, and only 33% want him to resign. Still, his negatives, at 47%, are almost as high, and voters seem ready to turn the page.

So what would happen if Ted Stevens lost his primary? Rasmussen polls that scenario, too:

Mark Begich (D): 50

Dave Cuddy (R): 35

Mark Begich (D): 55

Vic Vickers (R): 22

Cuddy, a former state representative who spent a considerable sum of his own resources on a 1996 primary challenge of Ted Stevens, has more residual name recognition and would be a stronger opponent than Vickers (a recent transplant from Florida). It appears that he would not exactly be a formidable opponent for Begich in the general election, although a full 30% of voters have no opinion of him, possibly leaving Cuddy with some room for growth.

The crosstabs have some more interesting numbers, including 44% who say that Stevens’ indictment makes them less likely to vote for GOP Rep. Don Young this fall. 41% say that it has no impact.

Also interesting, in the wake of “troopergate“: Gov. Sarah Palin’s approval rating is 64-36. Very high, but not quite as astronomical as it was in months past.

Anzalone-Liszt for Dina Titus (7/23-28, likely voters):

Dina Titus (D): 43

Jon Porter (R-inc): 39

Other: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Those are some nice numbers for Dina Titus. She may be benefiting from a sense of regret among voters who didn’t pull the lever for her in her 2006 gubernatorial campaign and are now stuck with the thoroughly awful and massively unpopular GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons. While Porter’s favorability rating is at 50-41, Titus is in stronger shape at 56-32.

The numbers aren’t far off from a recent Mason-Dixon survey that had Porter leading Titus by three points in the D+1 district. In fact, Anzalone may even be lowballing her support. The partisan sample of the poll is 42% Dem, 42% GOP and 16% independent. But according to the most recent numbers, Democrats have amassed a 24,000 voter registration edge in the district — a big gain from two years ago, when both parties were tied.

It’s quite clear that Jon Porter is in for the fight of his life. While SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, I think that we’ll have to revisit this rating very soon.

UPDATE: Excluding the third-party candidates, Titus’ lead widens:

When the third-party candidates were excluded and respondents were asked to choose only between Titus and Porter, Titus’ lead widened. In that scenario, Titus had the support of 50 percent, and Porter had 43 percent.

(H/T: DCal)