Tag: Polls

Epic-MRA for Detroit News (7/26-27, likely voters):

Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-inc.): 33

Mary Waters (D): 29

Martha Scott (D): 24

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here’s a surprisingly close poll from a primary race that we’ve been paying next-to-no attention to. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick has represented Detroit for over a decade, but suddenly she finds herself polling at only 33% for the upcoming Aug. 5 primary. The fact that ex-State Rep. Mary Waters and State Sen. Martha Scott are splitting the ‘change’ vote seems to be the main thing keeping Cheeks Kilpatrick in this at all.

The problem for Cheeks Kilpatrick is that she’s tied her fortunes to her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. She keeps offering unconditional support for him while he keeps digging his hole deeper in the face of various investigations and indictments.

The primary election is the de facto general election in MI-13, by virtue of its D+32 status.

Rasmussen (7/28, likely voters incl. leaners, 6/24 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43 (47)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 52 (48)

(MoE: ±4%)

Without leaners, Wicker’s lead shrinks to six: 48-42. So what’s changed since last time? It’s hard to say that anything major happened, unless perhaps Wicker’s many ads are starting to sink in. That said, the DSCC has begun airing ads on Musgrove’s behalf in recent weeks.

More interesting are the racial breakdowns of the poll, which Rasmussen is including in its crosstabs for the first time: Wicker leads Musgrove by 70-21 among whites, but trails Musgrove by 83-3 (yes, three) among African-Americans. Unfortunately, we still don’t know how Rasmussen is weighting their sample make-up.

While the poll shows Musgrove down from his past strength among white voters (which was around 26% in the most recent R2K poll of this race), Wicker’s extremely low performance among black voters has got to be a serious concern if he hopes to manage a spike in turnout among such voters in November, with Barack Obama on the top of the ticket.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Rasmussen (7/28, likely voters, 6/23 in parens):

Scott Kleeb (D): 34 (33)

Mike Johanns (R): 60 (60)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I’ve included “leaners” in the above numbers (because, really, there’s no point in not doing so). The story lies in the favorability numbers, where Johanns has a monster 70-27 rating. Kleeb’s numbers, not surprisingly, are much lower: 48-37.

It’s going to take some serious dynamite to shake up this race.

Public Policy Polling (7/23-27, likely voters, 6/26-29 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 46 (42)

Pat McCrory (R): 37 (41)

Michael Munger (L): 6 (5)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Perdue may have gotten a bit of a boost after her primary opponent, state Treasurer Richard Moore, recently endorsed her. Pollster Tom Jensen has some more thoughts:

Pat McCrory has lost some of the luster off of his ‘change’ message in recent weeks with revelations of large amounts of out of state money being spent on his behalf and news of a letter sent to lobbyists to help in raising money for his campaign. He’ll need to turn it around quick to keep the race from getting away from him, particularly with Perdue’s large overall fundraising advantage.

This race has been very, very tight since the start of the year, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on Perdue to see if she can break away in more polls.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Hays Research polls Don Young’s strength in the GOP primary for Alaska’s at-large House seat (7/24-25, adults, 5/7 in parens):

Don Young (R-inc): 42 (45)

Sean Parnell (R): 46 (42)

(MoE: ±7.4%)

That’s an awfully high margin of error, and the poll doesn’t even include Gabrielle LeDoux. Still, I think that the indictment of Stevens is a serious blow to Young’s chances, as anti-incumbent and anti-corruption sentiments will be running high in Alaska next month.

But even if Parnell knocks off Young, the poll finds that there is still hope for Democrats:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 33

Sean Parnell (R): 30

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Don Young’s favorables are still in the gutter at 41-56, while Sarah Palin’s are at a sky-high 80-16 (which is actually a slight drop from her 86-9 rating in May).

Public Policy Polling (7/23-27, likely voters, 6/26-29 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 40 (37)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 49 (51)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

This is the second poll in a row to show Dole with a nine-point lead, and with neither candidate on the airwaves right now, I think we can assume that this race is moving into a holding pattern around this mark for now. The good news is that Hagan’s well within striking distance, and I expect this race to tighten up considerably in the fall.

Bonus finding: McCain only leads Obama in the state by 47-44.

First up, Michigan’s 7th, where GOP Rep. Tim Walberg has released an internal poll conducted by National Research (7/8-9, likely voters):

Mark Schauer (D): 31

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±5.7%)

This isn’t the first poll that shown Walberg with a sizable lead; an EPIC-MRA survey from earlier this year pegged the race at 51-40 for Walberg. While Walberg’s lead may not be quite as exaggerated as it is in this internal poll, Schauer clearly has some work to do here. The same poll also found McCain leading Obama by 48-37 in the 7th CD, which may or may not be a bit suspect in a district that supported Bush by 51-46 and 54-45 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

Over in New Mexico’s 1st CD, Republican Darren White has released an internal poll of his own, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (7-22/23, likely voters, 10/8-9 in parens):

Martin Heinrich (D): 41 (33)

Darren White (R): 47 (51)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

White is touting this poll in order to refute a Heinrich internal poll from earlier this month that showed the Democrat leading by three points, but he’s not publicizing the trend lines from the last internal poll he released in October of last year, which I’ve included above. Heinrich has closed the gap considerably, and has some room to grow: While White’s name recognition is 78%, Heinrich is at 65%, indicating that he hasn’t nearly reached his ceiling yet. This one will be a real battle.

SSP currently rates MI-07 as Lean Republican and NM-01 as a Tossup.

Yet another Colorado poll to add to the heap, this one by Frederick Polls (7/16-22, likely voters):

Mark Udall (D): 48

Bob Schaffer (R): 39

(MoE: ±3.7%)

And now, for the Maine event: Critical Insights (6/1-27, registered voters, 10/17-30 in parens):

Tom Allen (D): 37 (34)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 51 (54)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s pretty much in-line with what we’ve seen happen in this race over the past year: a slight tightening, but plenty of ground left that Allen has to play catch-up on. This race is tough but doable, and if Democrats can pry this one out of Susan Collins’ cold fingers, they’ll hold it for a long, long time.

UPDATE: When the Maine poll’s sample is narrowed to likely voters, Collins’ lead shrinks to 50-40. Check out the polling memo for more details.

Buncha statewide (sen & gov) polls that we haven’t gotten to yet around here at SSP, so we’ll fire them off all at once in abbreviated fashion (trendlines in parens):

• CO-Sen (Quinnipiac): Udall 44 (48), Schaffer 44 (38)

• CO-Sen (Rasmussen): Udall 47 (49), Schaffer 43 (40)

• MN-Sen (Quinnipiac):  Coleman 53 (51), Franken 38 (41)

• MN-Sen (Rasmussen): Coleman 44 (42), Franken 43 (44)

• NC-Gov (Civitas): Perdue 43 (43), McCrory 40 (41)

• NC-Sen (Civitas): Dole 47 (48), Hagan 38 (38)

• NJ-Sen (Monmouth): Lautenberg 45, Zimmer 37

• VA-Sen (PPP): Warner 57 (59), Gilmore 32 (28)

All yours.

Rasmussen (7/23, likely voters) (6/18 in parentheses):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (53)

John Sununu (R-inc.): 45 (39)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The UNH poll that came out yesterday showing a 46-42 lead for Shaheen seemed pretty sketchy, especially when looking at the crosstabs. But now along comes the newest poll from Rasmussen and it shows a margin that’s also narrowed quite a bit. (With leaners pushed, it’s 51-45 for Shaheen.)

The same sample shows Obama leading McCain 47-41 (49-45 when leaners are pushed), which is typical for New Hampshire. Just based on that, it doesn’t seem to be an unusually Republican-heavy sample.