Tag: Polls

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/21-23, likely voters) (5/22 in parentheses):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 44 (42)

Roger Wicker (R-inc.): 45 (44)

(MoE: ±4%)

Not much movement in Mississippi, but it shows a very close race. And one that will probably stay close the whole way through, dependent largely on how much extra African-American turnout is generated by Obama’s coattails.

How big are those coattails? The same sample says McCain is beating Obama 51-42. That’s up from 54-39 in the previous poll, and more importantly, up from the 59-40 margin from the 2004 presidential election.

Finkelstein & Associates for Andy Harris (7/15, registered voters):

Frank Kratovil (D): 28

Andy Harris (R): 44

(MoE: ±5.7%)

A different internal poll taken for Frank Kratovil in May had the race slightly closer, at 43-34. For what it’s worth, between the Finkelstein poll’s high margin of error, its single day range and its sample of registered (and not likely) voters, I think I prefer the Garin-Hart-Yang numbers.

Kratovil has the geographical advantage of being the only candidate in the race from the district’s Eastern Shore, whereas Harris’ base is in the Baltimore suburbs. But this race will instantaneously get more interesting if Kratovil could manage to score a fall endorsement from Wayne Gilchrest, the longtime moderate incumbent whom Harris defeated in the GOP primary. Many of Gilchrest’s staffers are already working for the Democrat’s campaign, so perhaps it could happen.

SurveyUSA (7/18-20, likely voters, 6/6-8 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 53 (57)

Anne Northup (R): 43 (40)

(MoE: ±4%)

This latest poll from SUSA is awfully similar to one of Northup’s internal polls from last month, showing Yarmuth leading by 51-43. Considering Northup’s high name recognition, this is not a bad place for Yarmuth to start off in.

Rasmussen (7/17, likely voters, 6/26 in parens):

Vernon Jones (“D”): 29 (30)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 59 (57)

Jim Martin (D): 40 (39)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 51 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

We’ve said all along that Vernon Jones would be a human train wreck of a Democratic nominee, and now we have some more numbers to back that up. Jones’ unfavorables are a sky-high 55% (compared to only 30% who view him favorably), while Martin has a 47-35 net favorability rating. The numbers really don’t lie: Jim Martin must win the state’s August 5th runoff.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 53-42 in the state (including leaners), an impressive showing considering how badly Georgia has been trending in the last couple of cycles.

Rasmussen (7/17, likely voters, 6/16 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 50 (44)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 41 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

When leaners are included, Begich leads by 52-44. This is the biggest lead that Begich has held in any of Rasmussen’s polls of this race, and not quite in line with the most recent DailyKos/R2K poll that had Begich up by two points. We could be looking at an ad blitz bump for Begich, or this might be something of an outlier from what has been a very close race so far.

The SSP crew (and other bloggers) got the chance to meet with Begich at Netroots Nation, and I have to say that I was very impressed with his style, knowledge, and sense of humor. While this race will be very challenging as Stevens reminds voters of his four decades of public service this fall, we couldn’t have asked for a better candidate to take him on.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-40 in the state, and by 49-44 when leaners are included. Spectacular numbers.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

New GOP internal poll in WI-08, h/t Politico, from Public Opinion Strategies (7/8-7/9, likely voters):

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 46

John Gard (R): 42

(N=400, MoE=±4.9%)

There’s reason for concern in this district; Gard’s a former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker and very narrowly outraised Kagen last quarter. The poll also shows Gard with very high name recognition (88%). McCain leads Obama in the district 46-41.

Kagen, however, has plenty of cash on hand and personal wealth he can dig into if necessary.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Hot on the heels of President Bush’s $600,000 fundraiser for Tim Bee, we have two starkly different polls of freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords’ first re-election campaign.

First, we have Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (6/18-22, likely voters, including leaners):

Gabrielle Giffords (D-inc): 59

Tim Bee (R): 35

(n=502)

Lots of good news for Giffords here, including a very high 92% name recognition and a 57% favorability rating. But is it too good to be true? Tim Bee’s pollster thinks so.

Arizona Opinion for Tim Bee (5/15-23, likely voters):

Gabrielle Giffords (D-inc): 47

Tim Bee (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bee’s poll is staler and from (as far as I know) a less reputable polling outfit than GQR. However, if we fall back on the clichéd but time-tested method of locating the truth somewhere in the middle of these two spreads, Giffords is starting off in a solid place against one of the GOP’s few legitimately formidable recruits.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Public Policy Polling (likely voters, 7/9-11):

Bob Conley (D): 21

Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 52

Mark McBride (I): 10

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Without McBride (the GOP-turned-independent mayor of Myrtle Beach) on the ballot, the head-to-head looks like this:

Bob Conley (D): 32

Linsey Graham (R): 54

Now, Bob Conley isn’t much of a Democrat. In fact, he was last seen voting for Ron Paul in South Carolina’s Republican primary, and has even served on the executive committee of the Horry County Republican Party in recent years.

While many South Carolinians are clearly not in love with Graham, this race isn’t likely to get off the ground any time soon.

In other, and more interesting news, PPP finds that McCain is leading Obama by a mere 45-39 margin in South Carolina. Strong margins with African-Americans (77-10) and voters between the ages of 18-29 (54-32) fuel Obama’s strength here. I don’t think it’s likely that Obama will win, but I find it especially heartening that the younger generation of voters in states like South Carolina and Mississippi are poised to turn the page from the GOP dominance of their parents’ generation.

Jesse Ventura just told Larry King that he won’t run for Senate. Phew.

Rasmussen (7/10, likely voters, 6/11 in parens) has released another poll of the race today:

Al Franken (D): 44 (45)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 42 (48)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here’s what a three-way match-up would’ve looked like:

Al Franken (D): 34 (32)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36 (39)

Jesse Ventura (I): 22 (24)

Encouraging news for Franken, but it should be noted that Rasmussen has tended to be more favorable to Franken than some other pollsters like SUSA and Quinnipiac.

UPDATE: And on cue, SurveyUSA brings a very different look at the race (7/11-13, likely voters, 6/10-12 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 39 (40)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (52)

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bizarrely, SUSA shows that Coleman’s strongest voting bloc is the 18-34 demographic, who give him an implausibly high 58-31 lead. I find it difficult to believe that younger voters are Franken’s weakest link, so it’s hard for me to fully buy this poll and others like it from SUSA showing the same pattern.

Public Policy Polling (7/9-10, likely voters):

Mark Udall (D): 47

Bob Schaffer (R): 38

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±3.0%)

While most polls in 2007 and the early part of this year showed this one to be a close race, this is now the fourth poll in a row showing Udall with a lead of 9 or 10 points. After being hit with his ties to Abramoff and a few other campaign trail gaffes, Schaffer seems like he’s beginning to unravel a bit. The DSCC would clearly love to kill his candidacy in the crib, but it remains to be seen whether he can regain his footing and put some heat on Udall for a change.

Bonus findings: In the presidential race, Obama leads McCain by 47-43. In a hypothetical 2010 match-up with former Denver Broncos star John Elway, Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar leads by 44-37. Against former Gov. Bill Owens, the contest is much closer: 44-41 for Salazar.