Tag: Polls

Momentum Analysis for Kathy Dahlkemper (likely voters, 7/8-10):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 41

Phil English (R-inc): 40

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Wow. These are some stunning numbers, which I wouldn’t be surprised to see English attempt to refute with his only poll soon.

English has been airing ads touting his record well in advance of the general election, which shows that he acknowledges that he’s facing a real race this year — even against a political neophyte like Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper. A staunch conservative occupying an R+1.6 district, English could be vulnerable in a strong year. Indeed, even against a fourth-tier candidate in Steven Porter last cycle, English only managed to score 54% of the vote.

With English holding a dismal 52% negative job approval rating, this is definitely a race to keep a close eye on.

The Terrance Group for Kirk Schuring (7/8-9, likely voters):

John Boccieri (D): 34

Kirk Schuring (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.9%)

You’re free to take this one with as many grains of salt as you’d like, but this is the first publicly-released poll of this race that I’m aware of.

Between the district’s Democratic trend, Schuring’s embarassing campaign trail gaffes, and Boccieri’s stronger fundraising pace in the first quarter, Democrats have a strong shot at picking off this open seat. I look forward to seeing the 2Q fundraising results for this race.

SSP currently rates this race as a “Tossup“.

Rasmussen takes another crack at Missouri’s gubernatorial race (7/7, likely voters, 6/3 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 49 (54)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 38 (34)

Jay Nixon (D): 46 (56)

Sarah Steelman (R): 37 (34)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This race was bound to tighten up, and the flurry of ads and activity in the GOP primary seems have given both Republican candidates a boost.

Public Policy Polling has similar numbers (7/2-5, likely voters):

Jay Nixon (D): 47

Kenny Hulshof (R): 37

Jay Nixon (D): 44

Sarah Steelman (R): 39

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Looking ahead to the 2010 Senate race, PPP finds that Republican incumbent Kit Bond could be in for a tough race if he chooses to run again:

Robin Carnahan (D): 42

Kit Bond (R-inc): 44

Susan Montee (D): 35

Kit Bond (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Bond’s approvals are at 39%, a very poor number for a longtime incumbent, while his disapproval rating is at 33%, indicating a serious pool of disgruntled voters. Carnahan is the Secretary of State for Missouri and comes from a well-known political family; she would bring a deep pool of name recognition to a Senate race. Montee is the state Auditor, and was first elected statewide in 2006 to fill the vacant office left behind by Claire McCaskill. Both appear to be solid candidates to run against Bond (or for his open seat), if they’re interested.

Bonus findings: PPP shows McCain’t leading Obama by 47-44 in Missouri, while Rasmu pegs the race at a slightly larger margin for the GOP: 47-42.

SSP currently rates MO-Gov as Leans Democratic.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Martin Heinrich (6/29-7/2, likely voters):

Martin Heinrich (D): 47

Darren White (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.4%)

As far as I’m aware, this is the first publicly-released poll of this race. Considering that White probably has higher name recognition as the sheriff of Bernalillo County, this isn’t a bad starting point for Heinrich.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: I stand corrected! On the NRCC’s website, they’re still touting a Public Opinion Strategies poll from October that has White leading Heinrich by a whopping 18-points. So much for White being “untouchable”.

Ethridge and Associates for Tom Leatherwood (6/28-29, likely voters, 3/28-29 in parens):

Tom Leatherwood (R): 37 (30)

Marsha Blackburn (R-inc): 48 (57)

(MoE: ±5.6%)

Leatherwood, a former state senator, is mounting another disgruntled Jason Chaffetz-style campaign (i.e. running to the right of a very right-wing representative), but his fundraising has been pretty bare bones thus far. Another “pick your poison” campaign? Maybe so, but it’s still fun to see GOP incumbents in peril.

Don’t expect this creatively-drawn R+12 district to come into play if Leatherwood knocks off Blackburn — Bush beat down Kerry by a 66-33 margin in 2004.

Primary: August 7th

(Hat-tip to reader AK)

Public Policy Polling (7/2-5, likely voters):

Larry Kissell (D): 36

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 43

Thomas Hill (L): 7

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Hayes’ job approval rating is a very mediocre 38% (with 37% disapproving), while a full 48% have no opinion of Kissell, meaning that, despite his close loss in 2006, Kissell is still not well-known throughout much of the district.

PPP has more:

The good news for Kissell is that he has a lot more room to move up. While only 6% of Republicans are undecided, 22% of Democrats are. Among African American voters, Kissell is currently at 55% with 24% undecided. That is likely to move at least into the 80% range if not higher once Kissell reintroduces himself to the voters this fall.

Looking up the ballot, Obama has a small 43-39 lead over McCain in the district, with Barr snagging 7% (a number that I wouldn’t be surprised to see go down by election day). Bush won this district by 9 points in 2004, so this is exactly the sort of place that Obama needs to win in order to carry the state in November. And if Obama can provide the coattails, Hayes will be forced to fight against a headwind.

In the Governor’s race, Democrat Bev Perdue leads Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory by 43-38. Considering that much of the 8th District lies within the Charlotte media market, that’s a pretty decent showing for Perdue.

SSP currently rates NC-08 as Leans Republican.

Bendixen & Associates (6/6-22, registered voters) polls our trio of South Florida congressional races.

FL-25:

Joe Garcia (D): 39

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±5%)

FL-21:

Raul Martinez (D): 37

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 41

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±5%)

FL-18:

Annette Taddeo (D): 31

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 58

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

The McClatchy article on these polls doesn’t specify whether or not Bendixen tested registered or likely voters, but given that the poll overlaps with this similarly-targeted Bendixen poll from the same time frame, we’ll make the assumption that this is a poll of registered voters.

While two weeks is an awfully long time frame for a congressional poll, the numbers are quite good for Garcia and Martinez, who are putting the GOP’s traditional grip on South Florida’s Cuban community to the test. Less great are the numbers for Taddeo, but undoubtedly she lags in name recognition compared to Martinez (a longtime former mayor of Hialeah) and Garcia (the former director of the Cuban-American National Foundation and Miami-Dade Democratic Chair).

This could be a transformative year in South Florida.

SSP currently rates these races as Likely Republican, but our next round of ratings will come next week and some of these races may be in need of an upgrade.

Lake Research for Larry LaRocco (5/20-25, likely voters):

Larry LaRocco (D): 28

Jim Risch (R): 43

Rex Rammell (I): 6

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.5%)

If LaRocco wins this race, how many Senate seats would Democrats pick up across the nation? The National Journal ranks this race as the 14th most likely GOP seat to flip, but I think it might be more like 16 or 17.

SurveyUSA (6/28-30, likely voters):

Michael Kelley (D): 41

Geoff Davis (R-inc): 54

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Davis might still be feeling some residual negatives from list last bruising race, but he shouldn’t have anything to worry about this November given Kelley’s beyond anemic fundraising.

Still, it’s amusing that Davis’ numbers are worse than John Yarmuth’s, who led Anne Northup by 57-40 in the latest SUSA poll of KY-03.

SSP currently rates this race as Safe Republican.

(H/T: X Stryker)

Benenson Strategy Group for Bob Roggio (6/21-24, likely voters):

Bob Roggio (D): 32

Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±4.4%)

These results aren’t far off from Gerlach’s recent internal, which had Roggio trailing by 56-30.

Roggio’s biggest and most immediate hurdle is clearing the “some dude” status that he currently enjoys. His name recognition is a rock bottom 10% in this most recent poll (compared to 82% for Gerlach).

Despite his sizable lead, Gerlach can’t rest on his laurels. The Philly suburbs are trending bluer and bluer by the day, especially in Montgomery and Bucks counties, where Democrats have expanded their registration advantage by another 7000 voters since the state’s April 22nd primary.

Gerlach is living on borrowed time — whether we’ll get him in this election or in the next few years, we’ll still knock him out eventually — unless he can make it to the next round of redistricting and is somehow given more favorable lines (and that’s a lot of “ifs”).