Tag: Polls

Southern Media and Opinion Research (6/26-28, likely voters, 3/26-4/9 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 46 (50)

John Kennedy (R): 40 (38)

(MoE: ±4%)

Let’s open ‘er up and look at the innards:

Despite polling under 50 percent, there’s still encouraging news in the poll for Landrieu. A solid 61 percent majority of respondents said they viewed her favorably, with only 33 percent viewing her unfavorably.

Kennedy, for his part, is also viewed favorably by 61 percent of respondents with only 11 percent viewing him unfavorably. Nearly 30 percent of voters were “not familiar” with him.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 52-36 in the state.

Public Policy Polling (6/26-29, likely voters):

Alex Sink (D): 37

Mel Martinez (R-inc): 31

Robert Wexler (D): 33

Mel Martinez (R-inc): 33

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Floridians really seem to dislike Mel Martinez. His approval rating is a dismal 23%, with 43% disapproving of his antics in Congress. This one is shaping up to be a major pick-up opportunity on the horizon, especially if we can get a top-tier recruit like Florida CFO Alex Sink to enter the race. It’s never too early to start thinking ahead to 2010.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 46-44 in the state.

Public Policy Polling (6/26-29, likely voters, 5/28-29 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 37 (39)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 51 (47)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

The post-primary bounce is clearly over for Hagan, as Dole has corrected her numbers with media buys re-introducing herself throughout the state. One particular area where Hagan needs to shore up her support is among African American voters, where she only holds a 52-28 lead over Dole.

Bonus finding: In the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama by 45-41, with Bob Barr picking up 5%.

SurveyUSA (6/27-29, likely voters):

David Boswell (D): 47

Brett Guthrie (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.3%)

While Kentucky’s 2nd CD is ancestrally Democratic, its PVI is a deep red R+12.9, so this is a pretty strong showing for Boswell — one that might turn some heads in DC. Boswell and Guthrie are both state Senators, but Boswell has been around forever (and even served for a term as the state’s Agriculture Commissioner).

Fundraising has been a bit of an issue for Boswell: his legislative duties have distracted him from putting his full energies into campaigning and raising cash until relatively recently. Guthrie held a nearly 4-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage in the latest filings, which is why the DCCC may have been reluctant to award Boswell with “Red To Blue” status and instead slotted KY-02 in the “Emerging Races” slate for the time being.

However, this result should help grab the attention of donors.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but it might be due for an upgrade if Boswell continues to perform strongly in the polls and kick his fundraising into a higher gear.

Momentum Analysis (6/24-26, likely voters) for Vic Wulsin:

Vic Wulsin (D): 33

Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 41

David Krikorian (I): 6

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±3.5%)

If any incumbent polling under 50 is in danger, Schmidt barely scraping above 40 is a real showing of vulnerability. But let’s pop open the hood and look at some other numbers from the poll: Only 36% of voters say that they will vote to re-elect Schmidt, while 33% say they will vote to replace her, and 15% are willing to consider someone else. Schmidt’s favorable/unfavorable rating is a poor 45-45, and her job performance rating is even weaker: 33% give her a positive rating while 53% have a negative view of her job performance.

Schmidt is in the danger zone for sure, but I can’t help but wonder if she’ll turn into our elusive white whale. Full memo below the fold.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

Rasmussen (6/26, likely voters, 6/4 in parens):

Dale Cardwell (D): 33 (37)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53 (52)

Vernon Jones (D): 30 (33)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 57 (56)

Jim Martin (D): 39 (36)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52 (52)

Rand Knight (D): 31

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 55

Josh Lanier (D): 31

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 54

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Not surprisingly, Jones’ favorables are atrocious, with a full 60% having an unfavorable opinion of the controversial DeKalb CEO. I know that Rand Knight and other candidates have their fans on the blogs, but I feel that Martin is the only candidate who will have the resources he needs to defeat Jones in the runoff. Jones and his baggage could be a major hindrance on the Georgia Democratic ticket in November if he makes it through the primary.

Rasmussen (6/25, likely voters, 6/2 in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 35 (35)

Big John Cornyn (R-inc): 48 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Yes, Cornyn is under 50, but the most important number in this race will be revealed by July 15: Noriega’s second quarter fundraising haul. If Noriega hasn’t started raising some serious money by now, he may not have the resources he needs to be competitive in the fall. It’s a tough reality, but we all know that winning a statewide race in Texas — especially against an incumbent — requires some major resources. We’ll soon find out if Noriega is on pace to amass the infrastructure he needs to close the gap.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-39 in the state.

Rasmussen (6/25, likely voters, 5/22 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 41 (49)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 48 (44)

(MoE: ±4.5)

So Lunsford comes back down to earth — or rather, it becomes even more clear that Rasmussen’s May poll was an outlier. However, the numbers are still pretty good, with McConnell failing to crack the 50% mark.

On another, but related note: One thing I didn’t realize yesterday about the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the Millionaire’s Amendment, was that the ruling only applies to House campaigns:

The ruling pertained only to House campaigns, but the Senate has a very similar rule that experts say will likely be struck down as soon as it is challenged.

In Kentucky, such a ruling could have large-scale implications for the Senate race. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who like Gillibrand is one of his chamber’s most prolific fundraisers, is facing a wealthy self-funder in businessman Bruce Lunsford (D).

Lunsford’s campaign could ostensibly challenge the Senate’s version of the rule, preventing McConnell from tapping his donors for contributions several times the normal limits.

Lunsford’s campaign was noncommittal Thursday but didn’t discount its legal options.

Sure, Lunsford would be given a boost if he could spend freely and not raise Mitch’s contribution limits, but the optics of some rich dude going to court in order to re-write campaign finance law to his advantage are not so good — and it still might take months for his case to get anywhere.

The option is on the table, though.

Rasmussen (6/24, likely voters, 5/27 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47 (47)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48 (46)

(MoE: ±4%)

Musgrove still pulls even with Wicker despite having a poorer favorability rating (47-43 to Wicker’s 56-32), probably due to Musgrove being better known as a former Governor. Still, Wicker has begun putting his healthy cash-on-hand lead to good use by airing ads in Southern Mississippi, where he is largely unknown.

Here’s a bright spot from the poll which might give us hope for Mississippi’s future: Voters between ages 18-29 favor Musgrove by a whopping 68-27 margin. Wow. Conversely, voters 65 years and older prefer Wicker by a 60-34 margin. Let’s hope that Barack Obama’s candidacy can energize young Mississippians.

Bonus finding: Speaking of Obama, McCain still only has a 50-44 lead in Mississippi.

UPDATE: (by Crisitunity) The same poll also covered incumbent R Thad Cochran vs. ex-state rep. Erik Fleming in MS-Sen-A (the regularly scheduled Senate election). No surprises: Cochran is up in that one, 59-32.

Public Opinion Strategies for the US Chamber of Commerce (late May):

Jeff Merkley (D): 34

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 38

John Frohnmayer (I): 11

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ?)

This poll is a bit dated, as the inclusion of Frohnmayer clearly shows. Frohnmayer’s left-of-center campaign was expected to siphon more votes from Merkley than Smith, so this poll might have been even more favorable to Merkley if it was a head-to-head match-up.

It’s very encouraging — 38% is an atrocious performance for an incumbent — but I’d like to see some more pollsters dip their toes into this race.