Tag: Polls

Global Strategy Group for Paul Tonko (6/19-22, registered voters):

Paul Tonko (D): 42

Tracey Brooks (D): 14

Phil Steck (D): 6

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Tonko, a former Assemblyman, has a big advantage in name recognition (56%) compared to former Hillary aide Brooks (16%) and Albany County Legislator Phil Steck (14%). The poll didn’t include several other candidates who have also signaled their intentions to run, but it appears that Tonko has the inside track to win the nomination for this D+8.7 open seat.

Primary: September 9th

Public Policy Polling (6/21-22, likely voters):

Daniel Johnson (D): 38

Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 49

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Wow. This is an R+15 district that supported Bush by a 67-33 margin in 2004, and that re-elected McHenry by 62-38 in 2006. However, this race has an outside shot at getting interesting this year, as the odious McHenry recently endured a round of scathing press for compromising troop security by posting video on the internet of the locations of rocket attacks in the Green Zone. McHenry received a primary challenge from veteran Lance Sigmon, but still won with 67% of the vote.

Daniel Johnson is an impressive candidate — a former staffer for Max Cleland and a navy veteran who lost both legs below the knee in Korea while trying to save a fellow crewman. You couldn’t ask for a clearer contrast here.

McHenry is underperforming other Republicans in the district: McCain leads Obama by 52-31 and McCrory leads Perdue in the gubernatorial race by 55-30. Johnson will have his work cut out for him to swim against the GOP tide here, but this is clearly a race worth watching.

Rasmussen (6/23, likely voters, 5/15 in parens):

Scott Kleeb (D): 33 (40)

Mike Johanns (R): 60 (55)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Another wild bounce from Rasmussen, but the new numbers are very much in line with a Research 2000 poll from May that had Johanns leading by 58-31.

Johanns remains very popular in Nebraska, with a 73-23 favorability rating. Kleeb, for his part, has good (but more down-to-earth) numbers: 50-35.

Bonus finding: The crosstabs reveal that McCain voters favor Johanns by an 83-13 margin, while Obama voters are more prone to split their tickets, with Kleeb getting 62% to Johanns’ 32%. Busting out the SSP calculator and factoring in undecideds, my math tells me that McCain is leading Obama by roughly 55-40 in the state. The last poll from Rasmussen from the Presidential race (back in May) had McCain leading Obama by 50-39.

Update: Obviously something is up with my math, as Rasmussen’s real NE numbers are 52-36 McCain.

SurveyUSA (6/21-23, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the first poll of the race since Long Thompson picked state Rep. Dennie Oxley as her running mate. The Oxley pick was meant to shore up JLT’s strength in southern Indiana, where Daniels currently leads by 53-42. In Northern Indiana, where JLT’s base is located, she leads by 55-39. But the trouble spot seems to be Indianapolis, where SUSA shows Daniels crushing by a surprising 63-34. If she can’t turn things around in Indianapolis — one of the few Dem-friendly regions in the state — she’ll be facing long odds in November.

Bonus finding: in the Presidential race, Obama is leading McCain by 48-47 in Indiana. Perhaps Indiana will be a swing state this year.

That sound you’re hearing is the thud of dozens of McCain strategists fainting.

Garin Hart Yang for the DSCC (6/15-17, likely voters):

Mark Udall (D): 46

Bob Schaffer (R): 37

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Nice numbers for M’Udall. Even better, 54% of Schaffer voters describe their support for the ex-congressman as “not that strong”, while only 40% of Udall voters feel the same way about their candidate. As Udall, the DSCC, and outside groups continue to hammer Schaffer on his ties to Abramoff and other matters, we could shake a few of those voters loose. And on the generic ballot, Dems hold a 42-36 lead — a nice sign of Colorado’s Democratic trend.

Rasmussen (6/18, likely voters, 5/14 in parens):

Tom Udall (D): 58 (53)

Steve Pearce (R): 30 (37)

(MoE: ±4%)

Damn, son. When Tom Udall wins this thing, he’ll essentially be taking out three Republicans: Pearce, Wilson, and Domenici. They should call him: Tom Udall, Republican slayer.

(Hat-tip: ChadInFL)

IVR Polls for Eric Roberson (6/4, likely voters):

Eric Roberson (D): 43

Pete Sessions (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±4.1%)

TX-32 covers the northwestern suburbs of Dallas. Its population is 36% Hispanic and has a PVI of R+10.7. However, it’s been trending in the right direction: under its current lines, the district supported Bush by 64-36 in 2000, but narrowed to 60-40 in 2004. Mid-decade redistricting forced Democratic Rep. Martin Frost to face off against the incumbent Sessions in 2004, resulting in Frost’s defeat by a 54-44 margin. Dallas attorney Will Pryor (cousin of Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor) attempted a dark horse campaign against Sessions in 2006, but lost by 56-41.

Eric Roberson appears to be even more of a dark horse candidate, having only raised $21,000 for his campaign so far. Of all the “long shot” campaigns in Texas this year (TX-07 and TX-10 are the two other notables), this one seems to be the unlikeliest. But a good showing by Roberson could provide us with some clues and inspiration for the future here.

Public Opinion Strategies for Jim Gerlach (5/20-21, likely voters):

Bob Roggio (D): 30

Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 56

(MoE: ±4.9%)

POS isn’t one of my favorite firms, but the numbers corroborate the conventional wisdom that Gerlach’s in much better shape this year than he was in the past two cycles, when Democrat Lois Murphy gave him stiff but unsuccessful challenges.

One thing that’s definitely worth noting are the favorability numbers for Gerlach and Roggio. Gerlach sits at a solid 58-20, while Roggio is at an almost comically low 4-1. Yes, those numbers suggest that Roggio has a mere 5% name recognition in this district.

Still, PA-06 is a Dem-trending D+2 district, and if Obama is crushing in November, an upset isn’t out of the question. However, it appears that Gerlach may get lucky this year if these numbers are accurate.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Rasmussen (6/18, likely voters, 5/20 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 53 (50)

John Sununu (R-inc): 39 (43)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This one closely mirrors a recent ARG poll that also showed Shaheen leading by 14 points. Again, independent voters give Shaheen her lead here, favoring the former Governor by a 59-31 margin.

Sununu has yet to publicly engage this campaign at a serious level, but it’s so far, so good for Shaheen.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 50-39 in the state.

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-18):

Baron Hill (D-inc): 51

Mike Sodrel (R): 40

Eric Schansberg (L): 4

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Hill is the only freshman House Democrat in Indiana who was expected to face a close contest this year, so these are encouraging numbers given Sodrel’s high profile. Interestingly, the Libertarian candidate takes a miniscule 2% of Dem and GOP voters, but 14% of independents.

It looks like Sodrel picked the wrong year to try to resurrect his political fortunes.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.