Tag: Polls

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-17):

Darcy Burner (D): 45

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±3.8%)

This race is shaping up to be another close one. Darcy Burner has one of the best Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness ratings in the country, at 132% and over $900K in the bank at the end of March.

Only 23% of voters say that they could change their mind between now and election day, but Reichert leads among these voters by 50-39. There’s a lot of campaign time still on the clock, but a strong Obama performance in this D+2.3 district might help dislodge a few of these soft Reichert voters in November.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

UPDATE (by Crisitunity): As a bonus, Survey USA also polled WA-02, where Rick Larsen is facing a bit stiffer challenge than his last few go-rounds. He’s up against Rick Bart, who until recently was Snohomish County Sheriff. Bart has high name rec and a Reichert-like profile, but he’ll need some money if he’s going to make a race of this (no FEC filing yet).

SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-17):

Rick Larsen (D-inc): 56

Rick Bart (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Voter Consumer Research for Mitch McConnell (6/15-17, likely voters, 5/21-22 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 39 (39)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50 (50)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This one comes a day after SurveyUSA released a poll showing Lunsford trailing McConnell by four points. McConnell’s camp pulled the exact same move in May after Rasmussen released a survey showing Lunsford beating McConnell by five.

However, one thing is clear: Mitch McConnell won’t be getting a free ride this year. Even McConnell’s own internals indicate that this race is closer than any election he’s faced since 1990. Lunsford, while hardly a darling of progressive Democrats, will be able to bring his own ample financial resources to the race so that McConnell will be pinned down at home. McConnell will have to navigate his re-election bid and his role as a steadfast champion of Bush’s unpopular policies in the Senate carefully.

With the polls starting to smile on Lunsford, SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican“. McConnell is a famously tenacious campaigner and is still heavily favored to win, but an upset is not outside the realm of possibility.

Anzalone Liszt for Nancy Boyda (5/12-15, likely voters):

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 54

Jim Ryun (R): 37

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 57

Lynn Jenkins (R): 27

(n=403)

Those are some very impressive numbers for Boyda, whom many have considered in serious jeopardy this year as she begins her first re-election campaign.   But her re-elects (54-35) and her job approval rating (68-21) are very strong. Particularly impressive is her performance against ex-Rep. Ryun, who must have some significant name recognition in the district.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-38 in Kansas’ 2nd CD. In 2004, Bush smoked Kerry by 59-39 in this district.

Special thanks to the good folks over at Boyda Bloc for sharing these numbers.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

(This topic deserves more analysis– as far as I’m concerned, it’s the biggest news of the day . . . and of the week, so far! – promoted by The Caped Composer)

Just as we were starting to give up on the Pine Tree State, a new Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Republican Susan Collins' lead shrinking (5/14 in parens):

Tom Allen (D): 42 (42) 
Susan Collins (R, inc): 49 (52)
(MoE: ±4%)

The poll found that Collins' favorability, while still high, has fallen from since last month, and her unfavorables have risen slightly.  Allen's numbers, by contrast, have remained static.  The most surprising finding here is the fact that Collins has a double-digit lead among men, but leads by only two points among women.  Discuss.

This race may still be an uphill battle, but, let's just say it's akin to climbing Cadillac, more than Katahdin.

Civitas Institute (6/11-13, registered voters, 5/14-17 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 38 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 48 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

As both Markos and Todd have pointed out, Civitas (a Republican org) pegs the African-American vote at 18%, which seems to be an undersample (SUSA has it at 20% and CNN’s 2004 exit poll pegged it at 26%). Still, combined with the latest Rasmussen poll which showed Dole climbing back up to 53-39, it does appear that the incumbent’s rebound, paid for by a series of statewide advertisements, is real.

Dole is still in the under-50 danger zone, and this race has plenty of time to heat up.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

Anzalone Liszt for Larry Kissell (6/8-14, likely voters):

Larry Kissell (D): 45

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

Here’s some more bad news for Robin Hayes: On the generic ballot, Democrats now hold a 49-32 advantage in the district, up from 42-33 in May 2007. Hayes’ re-elects are at 43% against 39% who say they will vote for someone new. What’s more, Barack Obama has a 50-37 lead over John McCain in this R+3 district. With an African-American population of 28%, this is one district in particular where we can expect some serious presidential coattails.

Hayes realizes he’s in danger, as he’s already gone up on the airwaves with ads attacking Kissell over tax issues. This one definitely won’t be the under-the-radar race that it was in 2006.

Rasmussen (6/16, likely voters, 5/14 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 44 (47)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

Ted Stevens is going to be a tough son of a bitch to beat (much tougher than Don Young), but he begins the Senate race in serious peril against Mark Begich.

Bonus finding: If you look at the crosstabs, Rasmussen also lists which Senate candidate the supporters of the presidential candidates also favor. Obama supporters go with Begich 75-17, while McCain supporters go with Stevens by an almost identical 75-18. Unsurprisingly, if you multiply these numbers out by the Senate candidates’ share of the vote (and also include “undecided” and “other”), McCain noses Obama by barely 43-41.

UPDATE: Hm, I guess our math was off a tiny bit. Rasmussen has released their Presidential crosstabs, and McCain leads Obama by 45-41 in Alaska. Still a phenomenal performance for a Democrat in this supposedly solid red state.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

Because it’s never too early to look ahead, Public Policy Polling tested Republican Sen. George Voinovich’s strength in two hypothetical 2010 match-ups. Let’s check the score (5/17-18, likely voters):

Tim Ryan (D): 33

George Voinovich (R-inc): 33

Undecided: 34

Betty Sutton (D): 32

George Voinovich (R-inc): 37

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±3.6%)

If Voinovich’s term expired this year, it’s clear that he’d be in a Mike DeWine-style world of trouble. Ohioans seem to have little patience for the Senator, giving him an abysmal 31%/39% job approval/disapproval rating.

Tim Ryan has been frequently touted as a future statewide candidate for Democrats, but Betty Sutton is a newer name on the speculation scene. One potential candidate that PPP did not test is perennial loser and heiress Capri Cafaro. I highly doubt she would ever make it out of a statewide primary against a top-tier Democrat, though.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 50-39 in the poll.

(H/T: Andy Dufresne)

SurveyUSA (6/10-12, registered voters, 4/30-5/1 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 40 (42)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (52)

Undecided: 8 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

The numbers contrast with a recent poll by Rasmussen that pegged this race at 48-45 for Coleman, but they’re a bit closer to the seven-point Coleman lead in a Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll from May.

SUSA has also polled a number of other ballot possibilities, including the presence of Jesse Ventura and former interim Sen. Dean Barkley on the ballot:

Al Franken (D): 31

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41

Jesse Ventura (I): 23

Undecided: 5

Al Franken (D): 37

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 48

Dean Barkley (I): 8

Undecided: 8

SUSA also tested former Democratic candidate Mike Ciresi in the same match-ups, but he doesn’t fare much better than Franken, trailing Coleman by 10 points in the head-to-head.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

(H/T: Minnesota Mike)

Rasmussen (6/12, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):

Mark Warner (D): 60 (55)

Jim Gilmore (R): 33 (37)

(MoE: ±4%)

What an absolutely hopeless race for the GOP. These numbers really do say it all:

Warner’s favorability ratings have also improved. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 70% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 24%. Gilmore’s numbers are 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 45-44 in the state.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

(H/T: ChadInFL)