Tag: Polls

Goodwin Simon Victoria Research for Larry Joe Doherty (5/27-31, likely voters):

Larry Joe Doherty (D): 34

Mike McCaul (R-inc): 43

(n=400)

On the generic ballot, the the GOP has a mere four-point advantage over the Democrats in this R+13 district, with a 45-41 congressional preference. The fact that McCaul is actually underperforming the GOP’s generic strength here is eye-opening.

But that’s not McCaul’s only measure of weakness in the poll. A full 47% of respondents don’t even recognize his name, and his job rating is a stunningly mediocre 28% positive, 29% negative (and 42% unsure). What’s more, a massive 70% of voters rate President Bush’s job performance negatively, and 69% of the district’s voters think the country is seriously on the wrong track. All of this gives a big opening for a well-funded Democratic challenger like Larry Joe Doherty to exploit.

SSP first noted this race back in June 2007, when we made the case that the Democratic trend of the district and McCaul’s mediocre performance in the 2006 elections might put this one in play. We’ve had this district on our list of races to watch for a while, and we upgraded our rating of this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican last week after an independent poll was released showing Doherty trailing McCaul by six points.

This race has some real potential to heat up.

Rasmussen (6/11, likely voters, 5/13 in parens):

Jim Slattery (D): 39 (40)

Pat Roberts (R-inc): 48 (52)

(MoE: ±4%)

Roberts’ are a very strong 60-33, making the closeness of this race more surprising. The previous three polls we’ve seen of this race gave Roberts a 12-point lead over Slattery, so this one isn’t too far off. While this race will be an uphill fight for Slattery, it definitely is worth watching. If things get close enough, this might be one state where the DSCC decides to flex its financial advantage.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 47-37 in the same poll.

Mason-Dixon polls the battle for Nevada’s 3rd CD (6/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

Dina Titus (D): 42

Jon Porter (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±6.6%)

If this race is as close as the poll suggests, then Porter is in a lot of trouble. He never fared this badly in the polls against Democrat Tessa Hafen, whom he narrowly beat by a 48-47 margin in the 2006 cycle. Indeed, the closest poll of that race by Mason-Dixon came days before the election and showed Porter leading by 46-39. The fact that Titus is as close as she is only six weeks after launching her candidacy is both a testament to her high profile and Porter’s weaknesses, including his glaringly bad 36-56 job performance rating.

Recent registration drives in the state have produced a 20,000-strong Democratic voter registration advantage in the 3rd district, which used to be more evenly divided. This may prove to be Porter’s toughest year yet.

Over in the 2nd CD, the story is a bit different:

Jill Derby (D): 39

Dean Heller (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±6.6%)

In her rematch bid against freshman incumbent Heller, Jill Derby is facing an uphill climb in this R+8.2 district. Heller’s approval rating, at 52-44, could be stronger but still is in much better shape than Porter’s.

Derby’s candidacy will help spread the GOP thin, but turning Nevada completely blue will be a tough task.

SSP currently rates NV-02 as Likely Republican and NV-03 as Leans Republican.

Rasmussen (6/11, likely voters, 5/7 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 38 (42)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 47 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

With recent polls suggesting a big advantage for Barack Obama in the presidential race here, it’s no surprise that Smith is working overtime to present himself as a bipartisan consensus builder. Smith currently grabs the support of 22% of Obama voters.

Whether Jeff Merkley and the DSCC can successfully puncture Smith’s newfound moderate public profile remains to be seen, but Smith is in the under-50 danger zone and will have to fight hard for every inch given Obama’s commanding performance at the top of the ballot (46-38 in this poll).

Daily Kos diarist osagecokansasdem brings word of a new internal poll for Democrat Jim Slattery in Kansas:

Cooper & Secrest for Jim Slattery (6/5-8, likely voters):

Jim Slattery (D): 36

Pat Roberts (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3.5%)

That twelve point margin is a constant in every poll of this race that we’ve seen so far (Rasmussen in May and Research 2000 last week), so I think we can believe these numbers.

With only 56% name recognition, Slattery does have some room to grow, and Roberts’ numbers are decidedly mediocre: a 47/43 job performance rating and a 48/29 favorability score. Even more startling is the generic Senate ballot, where the GOP is basically tied with the Democrats at 41-40. The numbers certainly suggest that while this is an uphill fight, Slattery has something to work with.

In the presidential race, the poll finds Obama trailing McCain by an eye-popping 45-41 margin in the state. In 2004, Bush smacked Kerry by 62-37 here.

McLaughlin & Associates for Mark Kirk (6/9, likely voters, 3/16 in parens):

Dan Seals (D): 32 (29)

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 53 (50)

(MoE: ±6%)

You can take this with as many grains of salt as you wish, but as it stands now, Seals has room to grow, even according to this poll. His name recognition is 30 points lower than Kirk’s, and it remains to be seen whether Kirk can withstand a vigorous campaign by Seals combined with Obama’s presence at the top of the ballot in this D+3.6 district. Holding on, despite his early lead, will be a formidable task.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

Benenson Strategy Group for Jill Long Thompson (5/20-22, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 39

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±3.5%)

That’s not as bad a margin for JLT as was the case in a recent Indiana Legislative Insight poll, but the fact that Daniels is ahead in Thompson’s own internals does suggest that the incumbent has the early edge here. This one is tough, but doable — and a very critical office to hold for the next round of redistricting.

Quinnipiac (6/5-8, likely voters):

Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 47

Dick Zimmer (R): 38

(MoE: ±2.6%)

That’s a fair sight better than the most recent Rasmussen poll that had this race tied.

Lautenberg still has the same problems: his weak approval ratings (46-35) and a sense among voters that he’s just too old to start another term in the Senate (54-41).

It will probably be closer than it has to be (as always seems to be the case in New Jersey), but Lautenberg should be fine in the end.

McLaughlin and Associates for Jay Love (6/5, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):

Jay Love (R): 60 (33)

Harri Anne Smith (R): 32 (17)

Undecided: 8 (17)

(MoE: ±6%)

Things aren’t looking so good for Harri, which is a shame because I was looking forward to more ads like this one.

Runoff: July 15th

cross-posted from Election Inspection

Latest Senate Polls for 2008:

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	Rasmussen 5/27	Figures	29	Sessions	62
AK	Stevens	Research 2000 5/12-5/14	Begich	48	Stevens	43
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 5/19	Mark Udall	47	Schaffer	41
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Vernon Jones	29	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Dale Cardwell	27	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Rand Knight	25	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Josh Lanier	24	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Jim Martin	33	Chambliss	51
ID	Craig	Robinson Research 11/26-12/12	LaRocco	27	Risch	46
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	57	George Eichorn	28
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	58	Steve Rathje	23
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	59	Christopher Reed	20
KS	Pat Roberts	Research 2000 6/2-6/4	Slattery	38	Roberts	50
KY	McConnell	Rasmussen 5/22	Bruce Lunsford	49	McConnell	44
LA	Landrieu	Rasmussen 5/28	Landrieu	47	Kennedy	44
ME	Collins	Rasmussen 5/14	Allen	42	Collins	52
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jim Ogonowski	29
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jeff Beatty	25
MI	Levin	Rasmussen 5/7	Levin	54	Hoogendyk	37
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 5/22	Franken	45	Coleman	47
MS-A	Cochran	Rasmussen 5/27	Fleming	35	Cochran	58
MS-B	Wicker	Rasmussen 5/27	Musgrove	47	Wicker	46
NE	Hagel	Research 2000 5/19-5/21	Kleeb	31	Johanns	58
NH	Sununu	Rasmussen 5/20	Shaheen	50	Sununu	43
NM	Domenici	SUSA 5/30-6/1	Tom Udall	60	Steve Pearce	35
NC	Dole	PPP 5/28-5/29	Kay Hagan	39	Dole	47
OK	Inhofe	Soonerpoll.com 12/16-12/19	Andrew Rice	19	Inhofe	60
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 5/7	Jeff Merkley	42	Smith	45
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Bob Tuke	30	Alexander	59
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Mike Padgett	31	Alexander	58
TX	Cornyn	Baselice & Associates (R) 5/20-5/25	Noriega	33	Cornyn	49
TX	Cornyn	Research 2000 5/5-5/7	Noriega	44	Cornyn	48
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 5/8	Mark Warner	55	Gilmore	37

Democrats currently lead in all Democratic-held seats and in 7 GOP-held seats (AK, CO, KY, MS, NH, NM, VA) – although there is considerable skepticism about Rasmussen’s Kentucky poll. That would mean ousting 4 GOP incumbents (Stevens, McConnell, Wicker, Sununu), although Wicker is merely an appointee to an open seat. The GOP has only one good pickup opportunity – Louisiana, where Landrieu is up by only 3. We are within 5 points of defeating incumbents in Minnesota, Oregon, and Texas (I don’t count GOP internal polls). This means we are less than a 5 point swing away from a 60 seat filibuster-proof majority, which relegates the GOP to the back seat where legislation is concerned.

Beyond that, we trail by only 8 points in North Carolina, 10 points in Maine, and 12 points in Kansas. Remember what the Virginia race looked like at this point in time last year.

57 – in hand. 60 – within our grasp. 63 – within reason.