Tag: Polls

You might remember that in the summer of 2006, Democracy Corps (Stan Greenberg, James Carville, and friends) released a poll that was a real “holy crap” moment for the blogosphere, the first time many of us realized “Wow, we could actually win 20 or 30 seats in the fall!” It wasn’t a poll of one seat, but rather, a poll with a huge sample size drawn from dozens of potentially competitive House districts… and it indicated that we had a good shot at winning many of those districts, which, lo and behold, we did.

Democracy Corps is back with a sequel, and it predicts similarly big results in 2008. It’s particularly impressive compared with just how far we’ve come since they did a similar poll in January 2008 (of 40 of the 45 Republican-held districts surveyed in the most recent poll; they added five more because of the expanding battleground). (Not coincidentally, January 2008 was the start of the hotly contested presidential primary… y’know, the one that was supposed to have torn us apart into a bunch of warring factions and killed our chances in November.)

We’ll start with the most basic component: the congressional named vote (where the name of the incumbent Republican is used, while a generic Democrat was referenced), for all 45 districts taken together.

Democracy Corps (5/19-26, likely voters):

Democratic candidate: 50 (45)

Republican candidate: 43 (46)

That’s a move from a one-point loss to a seven-point lead over half a year… and bear in mind, this isn’t a national poll that encompasses Democratic-held seats, only the most threatened Republican-held seats. But they then take the additional step of breaking the races down into Tier I and Tier II races (see here for the precise list of districts, but for the most part they pretty closely track SSP’s list of toss-ups and of lean/likely Rs). We’ve moved from a +6 to +9 advantage in Tier I races, and from a -6 to +3 advantage in Tier II races.

Tier I

Democratic candidate: 51 (48)

Republican candidate: 42 (42)

Tier II

Democratic candidate: 48 (43)

Republican candidate: 45 (49)

The poll also asks for job approval of the Republican incumbents, mentioned by name. Their approval rating has appreciably and ominously declined, down into the thirties (even though the gap between ‘approve’ and ‘disapprove’ hasn’t dropped as much; they’re at +5 approval rather than a +6 approval).

Approve: 38 (43)

Disapprove: 33 (37)

Participants were read one of two statements: “In November, I really want to be able to vote for a Democrat for Congress because at least he or she will fight for change,” and “In November I will vote for [incumbent Republican] because the new Democratic congress is just business as usual and getting no more done than the last one.” They were then asked which statement they agreed with, and whether they did so strongly or not so strongly. The results show a large gap in favor of the Democrats, and significant growth since January. (There’s a whiff of push-polliness about this one, so take it with a grain of salt.)

Vote for a Democrat, agree strongly: 44 (36)

Vote for a Democrat, agree not so strongly: 11 (13)

Vote for a Democrat, combined: 55 (49)

Vote to reelect, agree strongly: 28 (26)

Vote to reelect, agree not so strongly: 9 (15)

Vote to reelect, combined: 37 (41)

I don’t want to get too deep into the individual issues on this one (there’s a ton of interesting material here; click on the links for more detail), but there’s one particular highlight for me that I wanted to share, which indicates just how much the dialogue has shifted since 2004, when gay marriage hysteria helped decide the election. (I didn’t see anything about this being asked in January, so no comparison numbers.) If these numbers are coming exclusively from Republican-held battleground districts, basically, gay hysteria is dead as a wedge issue. It’s over and done.

Participants were read paragraphs that contain “But I oppose a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage because decisions about marriage should be left to the states as they always have been,” and “We need a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage and preserve the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman.” Again, they were asked whether they agreed with the Democratic or Republican statement, and whether they did so strongly or not so strongly.

Democratic statement, agree strongly: 35

Democratic statement, agree not so strongly: 17

Democratic statement, combined: 52

Republican statement, agree strongly: 33

Republican statement, agree not so strongly: 10

Republican statement, combined: 43

In general, this can’t be seen as a promise of winning 45 seats. And with a sample of 1,600 divided by 45, that’s only a sample of 36 per seat, so it doesn’t have any particular value for any one particular seat. But this poll has to be seen as suggesting that we have the upper hand in the 21 Tier 1 seats, and are likely to win a number of the 24 Tier 2 seats as well.

(H/t to RandySF and Andy Dufresne.)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/2-4, likely voters):

Jim Slattery (D): 38

Pat Roberts (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

Very decent numbers for Slatts, and they line up nicely with Rasmussen’s recent poll showing Roberts ahead by 52-40.

We’ve really been blessed with a large number of Senate races that “could get interesting” this year (in addition to those that already are clearly very competitive): Oklahoma, Texas, Kentucky, Nebraska and Kansas. It’s a solid bench of second-tier races where the DSCC could put its ample resources to good use if the circumstances warrant it.

American Political Polling (5/31-6/2, registered voters):

Vic Wulsin (D): 30

Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 24

David Krikorian (I): 13

Undecided: 33

(MoE: ±3.5%)

The poll also shows that Schmidt has a job approval rating of 23%, and Bush at 40%. But this is one weird poll, and frankly, the numbers seem a little suspect. Was there any attempt made to push leaners?

Here’s a “bonus finding” from the poll: Obama leads McCain by 34-33 in Ohio’s 2nd CD. Let the record show that this is an R+13 district.

These numbers just seem too hard to believe. Full memo below the fold.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

Cooper & Secrest Associates for Sharen Neuhardt (5/27-6/2, likely voters):

Sharen Neuhardt (D): 35

Steve Austria (R): 41

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4%)

So despite only having 33% name recognition, Neuhardt only trails Austria, a state senator, by six points.

This is an R+6 open seat that the Democrats’ most-hyped recruit, Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly passed up, saying that Austria was probably too formidable for any Democrat to beat this year.

The numbers suggest otherwise. On the generic ballot, Democrats have a whopping 46-33 advantage over the Republicans. And despite Bush beating John Kerry by a 57-43 margin here in 2004, McCain only leads Obama by 43-40 in the district.

With enough resources, Neuhardt can put this district in play. So far, she’s done a pretty good job, raising $172K in her first fundraising quarter and ending March with a cash-on-hand parity with Austria.

SSP currently has this race on our list of Races to Watch, but it might merit an upgrade in its rating soon.

I am not sure if this has already been posted, but it is a story that should interest everyone.  Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (a prominent Democratic outfit) just released a poll they conducted of the 45 most competitive GOP-controlled districts (as defined by them), and the poll shows that Democratic challengers lead 50-to-43.  

The survey was conducted of 1,600 likely voters from May 19-26.  Very interestingly, the firm did a similar poll four months ago which found Democrats trailing by one point.  This change certainly shows substantial move towards Democrats as we get closer to November.  

Before doing their poll, CQR decided on what they believed were the top 45 most competitive districts currently in GOP hands (I will go over those below), and then chopped them into a first tier and a second tier.  In the first tier districts, Democrats held a healthy 51-to-42 lead.  Perhaps even more interesting, in the second tier races, Democrats lead 48-to-45 percent.  

According to the poll, Bush is weighing down many GOP candidates, as his approval rating in these 45 districts — many of them red districts — stands at 33 percent.  

When named in individually-polled districts, the GOP incumbents received an average approval rating of 38 percent.  Democrats polled 17 points ahead of the GOP on the issue of the economy, and 11 points higher on the war in Iraq.  Republicans polled three points higher than Dems on the issue of handling illegal immigration.  

The poll found that Dems hold a five-point advantage on current party ID, and edge the GOP with independents by a slim 43-to-41.  

Perhaps most troubling is that in these districts, Obama and McCain are tied 47-to-47.  

Here are the districts included in the poll, broken up by tier:

TIER 1.  AZ-01 (Renzi), CA-04 (Doolittle), CT-04 (Shays), IL-11 (Weller), MI-09 (Knollenberg), MN-03 (Ramstad), MO-06 (Graves), NV-03 (Porter), NJ-03 (Saxton), NJ-07 (Ferguson), NM-01 (Wilson), NY-13 (Fossella), NY-25 (Walsh), NC-08 (Hayes), OH-02 (Schmidt), OH-15 (Pryce), OH-16 (Regala), PA-06 (Gerlach), VA-11 (Davis), WV-02 (Capito Moore), and WY-AL (Cubin).  

TIER 2.  AL-02 (Everett), AK-AL(Young), CO-04 (Musgrave), FL-08 (Keller), FL-13 (Buchanan), FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart), FL-24 (Feeney), ID-01 (Sali), IL-10 (Kirk), IL-18 (LaHood), KY-02 (Lewis), LA-04 (McCrery), MD-01 (Gilchrest), MI-07 (Walberg), MO-09 (Hulshof), NJ-02 (LoBiando), NM-02 (Pearce), NY-26 (Reynolds), NY-29 (Kuhl), OH-01 (Chabot), OH-14 (LaTourette), VA-02 (Drake), VA-10 (Wolf), WA-08 (Reichert).  

Keep in mind, these districts were chosen not just based on our chances of winning them, but also on their breakdown (i.e. PVI index).  So, while we may have a mediocre opponent in a district, in a vacuum it can still be considered Tier One.  

While they hit all the close ones, at the outset you can probably pick a bit at some of these selections.  CA-04, MO-06, OH-02, WV-02, WY-AL and probably NC-08 should all be in the second tier as they are fairly strong GOP strongholds and not that close to going blue in the long haul.  While we will not win PA-06, it should be on in the poll as the district is winnable, we just did not recruit a top person.  

In Tier Two, we could argue this, but in my opinion, as it stands now, ID-01, IL-18, VA-10 and probably MD-01 should be Tier Three districts.  You could argue OH-01 being in Tier One.  While NY-26, NY-29, WA-08 and probably CO-04 should be Tier One in terms of flipping, the districts themselves are Tier Two districts.  While we will not win these two this cycle, NJ-02 and OH-14 are certainly competitive for us, we just have crummy opponents for them.  (Incidentally, we need to target these two hard in 2010).    

On balance, this poll is fascinating and I think they did a good job in bracketing the districts by current race and general character.  Clearly, the GOP brand, even in pretty red districts is badly damaged (like we didn’t know that already), and the Democrats have a spectacular opportunity this November.  Heck, even if a handful of these districts are a little poorly-organized by tier, the fact that we are ahead nine points in Tier One — which includes several really red districts like MO-06, OH-02, WV-02, and WY-AL bodes very well for us.  Ditto Tier Two.  

Obviously that Obama-McCain head-to-head is very troubling, but Obama has a lot of time to get and there and make his case to the independent voters in these swing districts.  I like his chances, as it stands.  

You can take this poll with a bit of salt because it is from a Democratic pollster.  Also, with an overall sample size of 1,600, divided by 45 districts, that comes out to an average of just under 36 voters per district — hardly a large sample.  

Yet, while I will not look at this poll as gospel, I think the overall numbers we get are promising and show that at the very least, we have much better strength then the GOP going into November, even in red-leaning districts.  If this poll is accurate, a 25+ seat gain is possible.  

http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?…

How big will 2008 be? Big enough to see a few presumed safe Republican districts painted blue in November? Anything’s possible.

A Goodwin Simon Victoria Research poll (5/19-22, likely voters) of Minnesota’s 2nd CD suggests that this R+2.7 district is turning a bluer shade of pale. From the polling memo:

It has become very clear in this election cycle that many Congressional seats formerly considered “Republican” seats are now in play; very little is safe for the GOP at present. Our recent poll results indicate that Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District has officially reached the tipping point, as the generic ballot between any “Democrat” and a “Republican” for Congress starts out as tied, 40% to 40%, for the first time in this district’s history. Add to this Sarvi’s compelling personal narrative and moderate inclinations, and Democrats have a real chance to take this district in November.

A few other numbers: 76% of voters rate Bush’s job performance negatively, while Kline’s approval rating is at a fairly poor 39%/44%. With no head-to-heads released, we can safely assume that Kline leads at this early stage. However, after hearing a positive statement about the Democratic candidate, Steve Sarvi, Sarvi pulls ahead by 49%-37%.

Now, it takes a lot of money to educate voters, but Sarvi has a compelling profile as a small town mayor and Iraq veteran. If he can get his message out there, perhaps he can do what Coleen Rowley failed to manage in 2006.

One never knows this year.

Anzalone Liszt Research for Kay Hagan (5/14-21, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 44

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±3%)

This poll was conducted before Dole kicked her statewide advertising campaign in gear, but it’s very much in line with many of the other polls from last month showing Dole with only a slight edge. The most recent poll of this race, by PPP, showed Dole boosting her lead by three points since going up on the air.

This one should be a good race.

SurveyUSA (5/30-6/1, likely and actual voters, 5/12-14 in parens):

Steve Pearce (R): 48 (49)

Heather Wilson (R): 47 (46)

Undecided: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Wilson leads among early voters by a point, but that’s well within the margin of error. With polls closing tomorrow night, this one is looking like a nailbiter.

But it sure isn’t looking like a nailbiter in November (registered voters):

Tom Udall (D): 60 (60)

Steve Pearce (R): 35 (36)

Tom Udall (D): 60 (61)

Heather Wilson (R): 36 (35)

(MoE: ±2.3%)

Anzalone-Liszt Research for Debbie Halvorson (5/18-22, likely voters):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 43

Martin Ozinga (R): 32

Jason Wallace (G): 6

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Despite this being an R+1.1 district, Democrats hold a 44%-33% generic ballot advantage over Republicans, and a 41%-35% advantage in partisan self-identification.

Certainly not a bad place to start for Halvorson. Full memo below the fold.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Benenson Strategy Group for Charlie Brown (5/14-15, likely voters):

Charlie Brown (D): 38

Dough Ose (R): 34

Undecided: 27

Charlie Brown (D): 42

Tom McClintock (R): 40

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±5%)

Ose and McClintock are giving each other an absolute shellacking over the airwaves, so these are some nice numbers for Brown. Also of note — on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats and Republicans are at a 43%-43% parity, with 15% undecided. Those are dramatic numbers from an R+10.9 district.

Here are a few select favorability ratings from the poll:

McCain:	58/35
Obama:	57/34
McClintock:	39/29
Bush:	38/58
Brown:	36/18
Doolittle:	32/48
Ose:	27/28

It’ll be tough for Brown to get those few extra points that he needs to clinch a win here, but the numbers suggest that it’s certainly not impossible.