Civitas (5/14-17, registered voters):
Kay Hagan (D): 43
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3.7)
First Rasmussen, then Public Policy Polling, then SurveyUSA, and now Civitas. With four consecutive polls showing the North Carolina Senate race to be neck-and-neck, the Swing State Project is moving its rating of this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
Update: I forgot to mention the Research 2000 poll from late April that showed Hagan within 7 points of Dole.
Rasmussen (5/20, likely voters, 4/30 in parens):
Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (51)
John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (43)
(MoE: ±4)
So far, so good.
Will this one go down to the wire?
SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely and actual voters, 5/9-11 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 34 (31)
Steve Novick (D): 37 (27)
Candy Neville (D): 7 (11)
Other/Undecided: 23 (30)
(MoE: ±4%)
Novick leads Merkley among those who have already voted by 6 points. The two candidates are tied at 32 apiece among voters who have yet to return their ballots.
Public Policy Polling also released a poll on this race today (5/17-18, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jeff Merkley: 33
Steve Novick: 38
Candy Neville: 6
Other: 3
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±2.7%)
SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely voters and actual voters, 5/5-7 in parens):
Kevin Mannix (R): 46 (41)
Mike Erickson (R): 42 (49)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
As you probably know, this race was recently shaken up in a big way when Mannix released serious allegations about Erickson’s hard-partying past. Among voters who have already returned their ballots in Oregon’s mail-in system, Erickson leads by 2 points. But in SUSA’s likely voter screen, the 38% of voters who have not yet returned their ballots favor Mannix by a 14-point margin.
On the Democratic side, things are looking good for state Sen. Kurt Schrader:
Kurt Schrader (D): 43 (37)
Steve Marks (D): 19 (14)
Other/Undecided: 38 (49)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
SurveyUSA gives notice of their upcoming polls that will be released this weeks:
Missouri’s Republican primary for governor and a peek at November.
Massachusetts’ US Senate primaries.
North Carolina November matchups for President, Governor, and US Senate.
A look ahead to November in Missouri’s 6th Congressional District.
Approval ratings and head to head November matchups in multiple states … including, for the first time, a look at how some potential November tickets do against one another.
Looks like Haggai over at Open Left was right about the vice presidential polls. If you ever find yourself being polled about a downballot race (House, Senate, or Governor), let us know about it!
Stay tuned to SSP for full coverage as all these polls break.
(H/T: ChadInFL)
The Minneapolis Star-Tribune (5/12-15, likely voters):
Al Franken (D): 44
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 51
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Coleman has a 45-31 approval/disapproval rating, while Franken is viewed unfavorably more than he is favorably (39% to 33%). Franken’s recent income tax woes, which have dogged his campaign for the past month, make 28% of respondents less likely to vote for him.
The same round of polling shows Obama crushing McCain in the state by a 51-38 margin. Franken has some work to do if he wants to catch on to that wave.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.
(H/T: Political Wire)
Rasmussen sure has a lot of good news for us lately (likely voters, 5/15):
Scott Kleeb (D): 40
Mike Johanns (R): 55
(MoE: ±4%)
This race is definitely one of the longer shots of 2008, but Kleeb at 40% is definitely a strong position for a Nebraska Democrat to start off at, especially against a popular former Governor like Johanns, who is viewed favorably by 65% of the state’s voters. Kleeb’s favorables are at 56%.
In the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama here by a relatively modest 50-39. (You may recall that Kerry lost Nebraska by a whopping 66-33.) Incidentally, Clinton would lose the state by a much wider 57-34. I wish Rasmussen’s crosstabs would break down the results by congressional district, because I suspect the Omaha-based NE-02 might be in play.
Poll city today. Rasmussen (5/14, likely voters, 4/7 in parens):
Mark Begich (D): 47 (45)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 45 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
The crosstabs (sub. req’d) show a few interesting numbers: Begich leads among independents by a 53-35 margin. Among Republicans, he’s running stronger (15%) than Stevens is with Democratic voters (9%).
The same round of polling also shows McCain beating Obama in Alaska by 50-41. That’s an awfully far cry from Bush’s 61-36 blowout in 2004.
Exciting times, indeed.