Rasmussen (5/13, likely voters):
Jim Slattery (D): 40
Pat Roberts (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±4%)
Slattery is a former Congressman, and Schumer was thrilled to recruit him for this race. While this poll is surprisingly close, Slattery will have his work cut out for him if he hopes to get the extra ten points he needs here, especially when the same poll shows Roberts with a 60% favorability rating.
Still, this is an eye-opening result. This race has the potential to get interesting.
Lake Research Partners for Steve Cohen (4/21-24, likely voters):
Steve Cohen (D-inc): 63
Nikki Tinker (D): 11
Joe Towns (D): 5
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Damn, is that lead ever huge. Also of interest: Cohen enjoys a massive 87% favorability rating among both white and black primary voters.
It looks like Memphis area Democrats will be returning this solid progressive to the House once again.
Primary: August 7th
Rasmussen (5/12, likely voters, 3/27 in parens):
Christine Gregoire (D): 51 (47)
Dino Rossi (R): 41 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
I have a feeling that Dino Rossi may come to regret picking 2008 as the year he decided to launch his political comeback.
SurveyUSA (5/9-11, likely and actual voters, 4/28-30 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 31 (28)
Steve Novick (D): 27 (30)
Candy Neville (D): 11 (8)
David Loera (D): 2 (2)
Roger Obrist (D): 2 (4)
Pavel Goberman (D): 2 (2)
Other/Undecided: 24 (26)
(MoE: ±4%)
It’s still within the margin of error, but this is the first time that Merkley has lead Novick in any of SUSA’s polls of this race. The full tracking history is available here.
Primary: 5/20.
Hays Research (5/6-7, Republican voters):
Don Young (R-inc): 45
Sean Parnell (R): 42
Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 2
(MoE: ±4.9%)
I’m not sold that this is a solid sample of likely GOP primary voters, but the results are still ominous for Young.
Young’s favorables? A staggering 59% of all respondents (not just Republicans) have an unfavorable opinion of Young, with 30% feeling “very unfavorable” about the crumb-bum congressman.
Meanwhile, Ted Stevens is viewed favorably by 53% of respondents, and unfavorably by 43%. That’s an improvement over the 49%/46% rating that Stevens held back in March.
Primary: 8/26.
SurveyUSA (5/9-11, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 41 (41)
Greg Fischer (D): 23 (22)
Others: 30 (32)
Undecided: 6 (4)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
The last several rounds of polling showed Fischer making up substantial ground, climbing from 6% at the end of March to 22% at the start of May. However, it seems like he may have hit a plateau with only one week left before primary day.
Primary: 5/20.
Rasmussen (5/7, likely voters, 3/25 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 42 (34)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 45 (47)Steve Novick (D): 41 (35)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 47 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
Smith is surprisingly weak, even against a pair of challengers who would not be called A-list. It’s no wonder that Smith would hit the airwaves early saying that he’s the “change that Oregon needs”.
Wow. From a Rasmussen Reports poll (5/8, 500 likely voters, 4/10 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 48 (39)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 47 (52)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
A very nice primary bump for Kay Hagan. Looks like this race is shifting fast — and in the right direction.
(H/T: AndTun1)
SurveyUSA (5/3-5, likely voters, 4/26-28 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 41 (43)
Greg Fischer (D): 22 (18)
Others: 32 (32)
Undecided: 4 (6)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Fischer continues to tick upward, but he’s got 20 points to make up in a two week time span.
Lunsford clearly has a ceiling, but is Fischer running a strong enough campaign to exploit it? I have my doubts.
Primary: 5/20.