Tag: Polls

Doc’s Political Parlor unearthed this Anzalone Liszt Research polling memo conducted for Democrat Joshua Segall (11/16-20, likely voters), who is running in Alabama’s 3rd District (PVI: R+4.1):

Joshua Segall (D): 26

Mike Rogers (R-inc): 54

(MoE: ±4.9%)

That’s a tough climb for any challenger, even one starting out with 14% name recognition like Segall.  

On the generic ballot, Republicans have a three point lead on Democrats: 41% to 38%.  On the informed ballot between Rogers and Segall, the incumbent’s lead shrinks to 48% to 41% after biographical information is given about both candidates.

But most interesting to me is this statistic — by a margin of 63% to 27%, voters want withdrawal from Iraq by the end of 2008.  Now that’s a potent issue for Segall to put to his advantage if he runs a smart campaign.

Ever since Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby in that lousy summer ’06 special election, most Democrats have thrown up their hands when it comes to winning California’s 50th Congressional District.  But a new poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (4/24-27, likely voters) for Democratic challenger Nick Leibham suggests that the ground may be shifting in the right direction in this R+4.6 district.  First, the head-to-head:

Nick Leibham (D): 34

Brian Bilbray (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±4.9%)

That’s about where you’d expect this race to be at this point.  But looking deeper into the numbers, Democrats have a 43%-39% generic congressional ballot preference advantage here, and a 47%-40% generic presidential advantage.  And after a positive bio is read of both Leibham and Bilbray, the gap closes to 49% Bilbray, 46% Leibham.

Bilbray’s re-elects aren’t stellar either, with only 42% of voters saying that they will vote to re-elect him, while 39% say that they’ll cast their ballots for someone else.

This is not to say that this race is likely to end up on the competitive board, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on — especially since Leibham’s war chest is a respectable 53% of Bilbray’s cash-on-hand.

NC-Sen (D) by SurveyUSA (5/2-4, likely and actual voters, 4/29 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (38)

Jim Neal (D): 18 (17)

Others: 13 (10)

Other/Undecided: 27 (35)

(MoE: ± 3.5%)

NC-Gov (D):

Beverly Purdue (D): 52 (45)

Richard Moore (D): 33 (36)

Dennis Nielsen: 2 (2)

Other/Undecided: 13 (16)

(MoE: ± 3.5%)

NC-Gov (R):

Pat McCrory (R): 38 (36)

Fred Smith (R): 32 (32)

Bob Orr (R): 9 (7)

Bill Graham (R): 8 (5)

Undecided: 12 (20)

(MoE: ± 4.9%)

Hagan and Perdue are poised to deliver blow-outs.  McCrory vs. Smith is the only race in doubt here.

The newest Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center (4/25-30, likely voters) is out.  Let’s take a look at the numbers.

The Senate race (February in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 52 (54)

John Sununu (R-inc): 40 (37)

Undecided: 7 (7)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

NH-01:

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 39

Jeb Bradley (R): 45

Undecided: 13

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 43

John Stephen (R): 35

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±6%)

NH-02:

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 51

Bob Clegg (R): 24

Undecided: 23

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 52

Jennifer Horn (R): 25

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±6%)

The margin of error may be quite high, and while the GSP has not always had the greatest track record, the results do confirm that Shea-Porter is in a much tougher spot than Hodes is.

SurveyUSA (5/2-4, likely and actual voters, 4/25-27 in parens):

Jim Schellinger (D): 41 (36)

Jill Long Thompson (D): 43 (48)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

I still suspect that JLT has the slight edge here, but this one seems up in the air.  We’ll be following the returns as they come in tomorrow night.

This seems too good to be true.  Rasmussen (5/1, likely voters):

Rick Noriega (D): 43

John Cornyn (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

If this is anywhere near accurate, the results are shocking.  But if Noriega is to make a race of this, he’ll have to get his fundraising machine in gear: his war chest is only 4% of Cornyn’s $8.7 million on-hand.

(H/T: JLGarsh)

SurveyUSA (4/30-5/1, registered voters, 3/12 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 42 (41)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (51)

Undecided: 6 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

I haven’t bought the premise that this race is a “tossup”, and if this poll is any indication, Franken has some work to do before it can become one.

Rasmussen (4/30, likely voters, 3/16 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 51 (49)

John Bununu (R-inc): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

SurveyUSA (4/28-30, likely voters, 4/4-6 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 28 (11)

Steve Novick (D): 30 (23)

Candy Neville (D): 8 (12)

David Loera (D): 2 (6)

Roger Obrist (D): 4 (5)

Pavel Goberman (D): 2 (3)

Other/Undecided: 26 (40)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

That’s quite a big jump for Merkley, who began his statewide advertising campaign this month.  However, I don’t doubt that the ultimate outcome will be very close.

From a new SurveyUSA poll obtained by Roll Call (likely special election voters, 4/27-29):

Don Cazayoux (D): 50

Woody Jenkins (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Those are some very encouraging numbers, considering that voters are heading to the polls to decide this race on Saturday.  But here’s the really amazing thing:

Despite enduring two weeks of constant attacks on the air from Republicans and independent conservative groups, Cazayoux had a net favorability rating of plus-15 (43 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable and 28 percent neutral or unfamiliar), according to the poll.

Jenkins, who came into the race with much higher name identification but who was known as a controversial figure, had a minus-13 favorability rating (36 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable and 14 percent neutral or unfamiliar).

So let’s get this straight: despite $436K spent by the NRCC, $100K by the Club For Growth, $500K by Freedom’s Watch, and another $150K or so by Leonard Grisby on an effort to re-brand Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and lover of Barack Obama, Cazayoux still has higher favorability ratings than Woody Jenkins.  Remarkable.

Special election: 5/3.