Tag: Polls

SurveyUSA (4/26-28, likely voters, 4/12-14 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 43 (47)

Greg Fischer (D): 18 (9)

David Williams (D): 7 (8)

James Rice (D): 4 (5)

Ken Stepp (D): 4 (1)

Mike Cassaro (D): 3 (5)

David Wylie (D): 2 (3)

Other: 12 (14)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

The new numbers show some movement for Greg Fischer, due in no small part to his recent statewide ad buys introducing himself to voters.  Fischer’s ads are pretty low-key (a few of them can be viewed here, here, and here), and I’m not convinced that they’ll be enough to mount a come-from-behind win here with three weeks left on the clock.

Primary: 5/20.

SurveyUSA (4/25-27, likely voters, 4/11-13 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48 (46)

Jim Schellinger (D): 36 (38)

Undecided: 16 (16)

(MoE: ±4%)

This Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll has a different take (4/23-4/24, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 26

Jim Schellinger (D): 28

Undecided: 46

(MoE: ±4.2%)

General election match-ups:

Jim Schellinger (D): 41

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45

Jill Long Thompson (D): 44

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 43

Research 2000 (4/21-24, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48

Jim Schellinger (D): 42

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±5%)

General election match-ups:

Jim Schellinger (D): 44

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 10

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 10

(n=600)

These numbers are awfully similar to the last poll of this race by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics — Thompson seems to have a small edge in the primary, while both potential November match-ups are dead heats.

Research 2000 for KCCI and KCRG (likely voters, 4/21-23):

Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 52

Ed Fallon (D): 28

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±5%)

There’s still over a month to go to Iowa’s June 3rd primary, but Boswell has a strong lead so far.  With only $20K cash-on-hand at the start of the month, it looks doubtful that Fallon has the resources he needs to topple Boswell this year.

On the heels of her statewide advertising blitz, Democrat Kay Hagan is putting some distance between her campaign and that of her primary opponent, Jim Neal, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll (4/19-21, likely voters, 4/5-7 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 38 (21)

Jim Neal (D): 16 (20)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

With more resources at her disposal than Neal, it would be a surprise for Neal to make up this lost ground over the next few weeks.

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

Below is a handy table of all the verifiable House polls I could find for the current election cycle. Special election polls are only included for upcoming elections, not for those that are already over. Every poll contains a link and an exact date range. Polling for candidates who have dropped out or decided against running is not included.

Cross posted from Election Inspection.

District	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	43	Harri Anne Smith	38
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	46	Jay Love	27
AL-05	Bud Cramer (D)	Capital Survey Research Center 4/1	Parker Griffith	48	Wayne Parker	32
AK-AL	Don Young (R)	Research 2000 12/3-12/6	Ethan Berkowitz	49	Don Young	42
AZ-08	Gabby Giffords (D)	Summit Group (R) 12/3-12/4	Gabby Giffords	36	Tim Bee	30
FL-13	Vern Buchanan (R)	Public Opinion Strategies 3/5-3/6	Christine Jennings	37	Vern Buchanan	53
FL-24	Tom Feeney (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 7/9-7/11	Suzanne Kosmas	23	Tom Feeney	42
IL-10	Mark Kirk (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 2/7-2/8	Dan Seals	39	Mark Kirk	46
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/8-4/10	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	42
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 3/16-3/20	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	44
MD-01	Wayne Gilchrest (R)	Moore Information 1/15-1/16	Frank Kratovil	22	Andy Harris	37
MI-07	Tim Walberg (R)	EPIC-MRA 2/27-3/2	Mark Schauer	40	Tim Walberg	51
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 10/31-11/02	Gary Peters	35	Joe Knollenberg	42
MS-01	Roger Wicker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/3-4/7	Travis Childers	41	Greg Davis	40
NM-01	Heather Wilson (R)	Public Opinion Strategies (R) 10/8-10/9	Martin Heinrich	33	Darren White	51
NY-25	Jim Walsh (R)	Global Strategy Group (D) 2/16-2/20	Dan Maffei	41	Peter Cappuccilli	29
NC-08	Robin Hayes (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 11/13-11/15	Larry Kissell	49	Robin Hayes	47
OH-02	Jean Schmidt (R)	Tarrance Group (R) 3/11-3/12	Vic Wulsin	33	Jean Schmidt	51
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	53	Dan Meuser	23
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	55	Chris Hackett	21
TX-07	John Culberson (R)	IVR 4/8	Michael Skelly	39	John Culberson	57
WY-AL	Barbara Cubin (R)	Mason-Dixon 1/18-1/21	Gary Trauner	41	Cynthia Lummis	40

Based on the polling above, Democrats are likely to pick up at least 5-10 seats, and that’s with many competitive races yet unpolled and many campaigns just starting to rev up. Although there are a few seats held by Democrats that are in danger, none yet polled show us losing to the GOP.

Keep an eye on EI for House and Senate polls updated daily.

It’s looking like a rout in Kentucky.  From SurveyUSA (likely voters, 4/12-14, 3/23-30 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 47% (42%)

Greg Fischer (D): 9% (6%)

David Williams (D): 8% (11%)

James Rice (D): 5% (5%)

Mike Cassaro (D): 5% (4%)

David Wylie (D): 3% (5%)

Ken Stepp (D): 1%

Other: 14% (17%)

Undecided: 8% (8%)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Primary: 5/20.

Rasmussen (likely voters, 4/7):

Mark Begich (D): 45%

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46%

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen (likely voters, 4/8, 2/18 in parens)

Tom Udall (D): 54% (50%)

Steve Pearce (R): 40% (42%)

Tom Udall (D): 56% (50%)

Heather Wilson (R): 36% (43%)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

How’s that nasty primary working out for you, NM GOP?

(H/T: X-Stryker)

SurveyUSA polls the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate race (likely primary voters, 4/5-7, 3/8-10 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 21% (18%)

Jim Neal (D): 20% (21%)

Duskin Lassiter: 6% (6%)

Marcus Williams: 5% (7%)

Howard Staley: 4% (4%)

Other/Undecided: 45% (44%)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Nothing terribly revealing here — primary voters are unfamiliar with both Hagan and Neal, but one would expect these numbers to settle out once the candidates ramp up their advertising efforts with four weeks to go until primary day.

Next up, NC-Gov (D):

Richard Moore (D): 40% (28%)

Beverly Perdue (D): 40% (44%)

Dennis Nielsen (D): 3% (3%)

Other/Undecided: 17% (25%)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Finally, NC-Gov (R):

Bill Graham (R): 9% (16%)

Bob Orr (R): 10% (12%)

Pat McCrory (R): 38% (26%)

Fred Smith (R): 19% (18%)

Undecided: 25% (28%)

(MoE: ±5%)

If the Democratic race here is neck-and-neck between state Treasurer Richard Moore and Lt. Gov. Beverly Purdue, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory looks like the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nod.

SurveyUSA (4/4-6, likely Democratic primary voters):

Steve Novick (D): 23%

Candy Neville (D): 12%

Jeff Merkley (D): 11%

David Loera (D): 6%

Roger Obrist (D): 5%

Pavel Goberman (D): 3%

Undecided: 40%

(MoE: ±4.1%)

With six weeks to go until Oregon’s primary, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley has some work to do in order to claim a victory here.  Part of Merkley’s deficit can be chalked up to the fact that his campaign had not yet begun airing TV ads when this poll was conducted, while Novick has already aired several quirky, attention-grabbing spots.  Merkley launched his air campaign today, so that should help him raise his name recognition.  The question is — with Obama and Clinton buying up chunks of airtime in advance of the May 20th primary, is Merkley at risk of getting swamped out by the presidential spotlight?  He has an awful lot of primary voters to introduce himself to in the coming weeks.

(H/T: Blue Oregon)