Tag: Polls

AL-05: New Poll Shows Democrat Griffith Ahead

A new poll conducted by the Capital Survey Research Center shows state Sen. Parker Griffith, an oncologist from Huntsville, with an early lead over the presumptive GOP nominee, advertising executive Wayner Parker (4/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Parker Griffith (D): 48%

Wayne Parker (R): 32%

Undecided: 21%

(MoE: ±4%)

(Source: House Race Hotline)

On top of Griffith’s $115,000 fundraising haul in his first week of the race, this is encouraging news for Democrats as they seek to hold this open seat that Bush carried by 54-44 and 60-40 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  

Wayne Parker twice tried to win this seat against incumbent Democrat Bud Cramer; he nearly won in 1994, but lost decisively in ’96.  With the GOP failing to attract a stronger challenger (such as potential turncoat Democratic state Sen. Tom Butler), it appears that Griffith is starting with a clear edge here.

SSP will try to obtain a copy of the polling memo and post it when we can.

Pennsylvania: An Obama Lead?

cross-posted from Election Inspection.

The latest Pennsylvania primary polls show a lot of movement towards Obama:

Pollster Date Obama Clinton
PPP 3/31-4/1 45 43
Quinnipiac 3/24-3/31 41 50
SUSA 3/29-3/31 41 53
Rasmussen 3/31 42 47
ARG 3/26-3/27 39 51

Analysis below the flip.

Compared with the previous result from each pollster, all except ARG show a net gain for Obama:

PPP: Obama net gains 28 from two weeks prior

Quinnipiac: Obama net gains 3 from two weeks prior

SUSA: Obama net gains 7 from three weeks prior

Rasmussen: Obama net gains 5 from one week prior, 8 from 3/12, and 10 from 3/5.

ARG: Obama net loses 1 from 19 days prior.

PPP published an article immediately before they released their PA poll today touting their accuracy in prior contests like Texas and Ohio. Looks to me like they’re trying to protect their reputation in the face of the fact that today’s poll and the prior one in the state are major outliers in opposite directions. In other words, let’s discount PPP for now; and ARG while we’re at it, since ARG polls tend to be way off until the final day of the contest. That leaves a spead of 5, 9, and 12, which is right in line with my analysis from Monday suggesting that as things stand today, Clinton would win Pennsylvania by 5-15 points. However, the trending suggests that the race continues to tighten, and if this continues, Clinton will win Pennsylvania by single digits, if at all.

And as I’ve said previously, a single digit win in Pennsylvania will make any suggestion that she could win this nomination sound mathematically ridiculous instead of merely far-fetched. Clinton’s campaign should be in full panic mode by this point, because this is their last chance and it is slipping away.

Election Inspection’s current delegate breakdown: Clinton 55, Obama 48

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Poll Round-up: CO-Sen, ME-Sen, MN-Sen, IN-Gov

Three new polls today from GOP polling firm McLaughlin & Associates (3/6-9, likely voters, no trendlines).

CO-Sen:

Mark Udall (D): 44%

Bob Schaffer (R): 32%

(MoE: ±4.9%)

ME-Sen:

Tom Allen (D): 31%

Susan Collins (R-inc): 54%

(MoE: ±4.9%)

MN-Sen:

Al Franken (D): 40%

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46%

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Gov (D) (SUSA):

Jim Schellinger (D): 41%

Jill Long Thompson (D): 39%

Undecided: 20%

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rumor has it, Schellinger will pick up the endorsement of former Indiana Gov. Joe Kernan tomorrow, which should be a valuable boost in a race as close as this one.

KY-Sen: Lunsford Swamping All Comers in Dem Primary

SurveyUSA has the first public poll of the Democratic primary for race against Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, and so far, it’s looking like a rout for Bruce Lunsford:

Bruce Lunsford (D): 42%

David Williams (D): 11%

Greg Fischer (D): 6%

James Rice (D): 5%

David Wylie (D): 5%

Mike Cassaro (D): 4%

Ken Stepp (D): 3%

Other: 17%

Undecided: 8%

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Lunsford’s only serious opponent in the primary, Greg Fischer, a seller of stadium bleachers, has some serious ground to make up.  It’s likely that Lunsford, from his acrimonious runs for the Governor’s mansion, has a ceiling of support in the Democratic primary, but the crowded field opposing him is splitting the remainder of the vote so far.  

Will Fischer be able to close the gap and consolidate the non-Lunsford vote in time for the Kentucky’s May 20th primary?

AZ-03: Dem Poll Shows Weakness For Shadegg

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, 1/14-16 (likely voters):

Re-Elect John Shadegg: 39%

Vote for someone else: 38%

Undecided: 23%

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The full polling memo offers some other encouraging signs for Democrats:

While Republicans have a 14-point advantage in party registration in this survey of likely voters, they only have a three-point advantage in party identification (37% to 40%) and only a one-point advantage among strong party affiliation

This is an R+6 district, so it won’t be an easy ride for any Democrat, but Bob Lord has been raising enough money and making the right moves to keep this one interesting.  The numbers show that he does have something to work with.

NM-02: Internal Poll Gives McCamley the Edge in Dem Primary

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Bill McCamley, 3/17-19 (likely Democratic primary voters, no trendlines):

Bill McCamley (D): 43%

Harry Teague (D): 22%

Undecided: 35%

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Teague, a former Lea County Commissioner, is a self-funder who can pour in a decent amount of cash in an attempt to close the gap with Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley.  For now, at least, McCamley has the clear edge.

NY-25: DCCC Poll Shows Big Lead for Maffei

From a Global Strategy Group poll for the DCCC, 2/16-20 (likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Maffei (D): 41%

Peter Cappuccilli (R): 29%

Undecided: 30%

Dan Maffei (D): 41%

Randy Wolken (R): 25%

Undecided: 34%

MoE: ±6.9%

With a margin of error that high, the quality of this poll is a somewhat questionable.  Still, it’s not hard to believe the results, given the district’s clear Democratic lean: John Kerry won the CD by 2% in 2004, and Al Gore took the district by 6% four years earlier.  With the GOP brand cratering in New York state, Maffei is the clear front-runner here.