Tag: Polls

Hays Research for the Jake Metcalfe campaign (3/10/08 – 3/12/08):

Jake Metcalfe (D): 45%

Don Young (R-inc): 37%

Democratic Nominee: 41%

Don Young (R-inc): 34%

MoE: ±4.9%

Let’s see, counting this poll, that’s one, two, three, four surveys in a row showing crumb-bum Young trailing his Democratic challengers.

At this point, the biggest danger for Democrats lies in Lt. Governor Sean Parnell’s primary challenge against Young.

(Hat-tip: TPM EC)

cross-posted from Election Inspection

According to the most recent polls taken, Democrats stand to pick up 5 Senate seats (AK, MN, NH, NM, VA). Two more are tossups (CO, MS-B), and only one Democratic-held seat is vulnerable enough to rate Lean Democratic (LA). Check out the polls below the fold; some are recent, some are old!

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	SUSA 8/25-8/27	Figures	37	Sessions	59
AK	Stevens	R2K 12/3-12/6	Begich	47	Stevens	41
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 2/11	Mark Udall	43	Schaffer	44
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Vernon Jones	27	Chambliss	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Dale Cardwell	25	Chambliss	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Rand Knight	23	Chambliss	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision 12/7-12/9	Josh Lainer	22	Chambliss	58
ID	Craig	Myers Research 11/13-11/19	LaRocco	34	Risch	48
LA	Landrieu	SUSA 12/06-12/10	Landrieu	46	Kennedy	42
ME	Collins	SUSA 10/26-10/29	Allen	38	Collins	55
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 2/16	Franken	49	Coleman	46
MS	Wicker (replaces Lott)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 12/2-12/5	Musgrove	48	Wicker	34
MS	Wicker (replaces Lott)	Research 2000 12/10-12/12	Musgrove	39	Wicker	47
NE	Hagel	Research 2000 11/12-11/14	Kleeb	39	Johanns	47
NH	Sununu	Rasmussen 2/13	Shaheen	49	Sununu	41
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 2/27	Lautenberg	46	Joe Pennacchio	38
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 2/27	Lautenberg	46	Murray Sabrin	31
NM	Domenici	NM State U. 1/22-1/31	Tom Udall	58	Heather Wilson	30
NM	Domenici	NM State U. 1/22-1/31	Tom Udall	53	Steve Pearce	31
NC	Dole	PPP 1/21	Kay Hagan	35	Dole	48
NC	Dole	PPP 1/21	Jim Neal	30	Dole	49
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 2/13	Jeff Merkley	30	Smith	48
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 2/13	Steve Novick	35	Smith	48
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TX	Cornyn	Research 2000 9/24-9/26	Noriega	35	Cornyn	51
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 2/19	Mark Warner	57	Gilmore	37

Election Inspection will be tracking these polls through November and beyond.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (registered voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc.): 46%

John Kennedy (R): 42%

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Those numbers don’t quite jive with Kennedy’s internal polling that he published late last month, which showed him leading Landrieu by a 45%-38% margin.  We can’t yet tell for sure which poll is the outlier, but at this point, I’m inclined to trust SUSA over Kennedy’s Zogby poll.

Whatever the case, this one’s gonna be tough.

UPDATE: The full poll is available here.

UPDATE #2: Hey, guess what?  Kennedy finally took a bold leap into the 21st Century and removed his official campaign site from Geocities.  His next task?  Remove all those “Under Construction” and dancing Calvin & Hobbes GIF files from his current site.

Another day, another terrible poll for Alaska’s scandal-plagued duo of Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young.

Research 2000 for DailyKos (12/3-6, likely voters):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49%

Don Young (R-inc): 42%

Mark Begich (D): 47%

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 41%

(MoE: ±4%)

The fact that Young is losing to Berkowitz is not so surprising anymore.  An August poll conducted for the DCCC showed Berkowitz with a 5 point lead, and an internal poll for Democratic challenger Diane Benson had Young down by nearly 15% at the end of October.

The numbers for Stevens against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, his potential ’08 opponent, are the real eye-openers, and show just how embarrassed Alaskans have grown over their federal representation over the course of the year.  The biggest danger for Democrats?  A primary defeat or a retirement from either of them.  But given how pompous both of these crumb-bums are (e.g., Young’s actual slogan on his website is: “No one has done more.  No one will do more.”), I bet this gruesome twosome will attempt to stick it out.

I’d like to announce some really great (and even surprising) poll results regarding the Texas Senate race here in Texas. The following poll was conducted a couple weeks ago by Lake Research, a highly regarded polling firm. Analysis of each major point will be below the section.

The survey was conducted among 500 registered voters in Texas who are likely to vote in the 2008 General Election.  The survey was conducted November 13-18, 2007. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

1. Opinion of John Cornyn

40% favorable

22% unfavorable

24% no opinion

14% never heard of him

Cornyn has been a statewide elected official since 1990- he’s been a Supreme Court Justice, Attorney General, and Senator. Given all that, only 62% of Texans know enough of Cornyn to have an opinion of him. That’s pretty shocking but verifies the rumors I heard earlier this year from other polls that said about a 1/3 of the state has no idea who he is. So even though Rick Noriega, like most Texas Democrats, is not well known by the general electorate yet, Sen. Cornyn does not enjoy as large of an name ID advantage as we might think.  

2. Job Approval of John Cornyn

36% favorable

41% unfavorable

23% no opinion

Cornyn continues to maintain a net negative job approval rating in stark contrast to Texas’ other Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison who fares over 20% points better. While 1/4th of voters don’t know enough to have an opinion, those who do clearly aren’t happy with what they see. Cornyn’s base of support is weak and there is a large pool of voters who seek change.

3. Re-Elect of John Cornyn

31% vote to re-elect

16% vote to replace

53% consider someone else

Texas voters are very open to replacing Cornyn as 69% want to replace or will consider replacing him. Having a 31% re-elect number is awful for Cornyn and is probably one of the most concerning results for him in this poll.

4. Approval of Bush in Texas

20% very favorable

22% favorable

16% unfavorable

37% very unfavorable

The President has lost the support of his home state with a 53% unfavorable rating to 42% favorable among Texans. Talk about a turnaround. Bush is the personification of the Texas Republican Party. If voters are rejecting him, including 37% who deeply disapprove, the Democratic nominee can count on a larger and more passionate partisan base vote in 2008. Cornyn’s continued attempts to tie himself to the President will only serve to drag him down.

5. Country Right/Wrong Track

62% Country on off on the wrong track

28% Country heading in right direction

Wow. Those numbers indicate that Texans think that the country has not only gone off in a wrong direction, but that’s it’s jumped clearly off the tracks.  Cornyn’s claims that we need to stay the course in Iraq, stay the course on tax cuts causing a ballooning deficit, and stay the course on a health care system that is broken are so out of touch the only course he’ll be staying on is a golf course after we retire him from office in 2008.  

Diane Benson, Rep. Don Young’s foe in 2006, just released a new poll (PDF) today showing the scandal-plagued incumbent trailing both Benson and former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz, who are vying for the Democratic nomination.  Both Dems also lead Young’s Republican primary challenger, state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux.

Craciun Research Group for Diane Benson (10/27-11/02):

Diane Benson (D): 45.3%

Don Young (R-inc): 36.7%

Undecided: 15.6%

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49.7%

Don Young (R-inc): 35.1%

Undecided: 13.8%

Diane Benson (D): 45.0%

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 12.3%

Undecided: 38.2%

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49.0%

Gabrielle LeDoux (R):  13.8%

Undecided: 32.9%

(MoE: ±4.9%)

If this poll is remotely accurate, Young is screwed.  An earlier poll, conducted in August by Ivan Moore Research, showed Young trailing Berkowitz by nearly 6 points.  The environment hasn’t exactly improved for young since then, so who knows.

The poll also shows a reasonably close primary race between Benson and Berkowitz, with former Alaska Democratic Party Chair Jake Metcalfe in third:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 28.6%

Diane Benson (D): 21.1%

Jake Metcalfe (D): 8.3%

Undecided: 33.8%

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Interestingly, 6% of respondents volunteered the name of Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who appears set to challenge Sen. Ted Stevens (R) next year.  Another Ivan Moore poll, released last month, showed Berkowitz leading Benson by a 26 point margin.

This is shaping up to be an explosive race.

PS: Check out Young’s new campaign website.  Get a load of his slogan: “No One Has Done More, No One Will Do More.”  Who does he think he is?  Superman?

Could Indiana be due for a major political upheaval in 2008?  A new poll confirms that incumbent Republican Gov. “My Man” Mitch Daniels is standing on shaky ground.

Selzer & Co. for the Indianapolis Star-WTHR TV (Nov. 13-16, likely votes):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 44%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 43%

Undecided: 13%

Jim Schellinger (D): 44%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 40%

Undecided: 16%

(MoE: ±4.6%)

So we’ve got Daniels, an incumbent Governor, well under 50% against someone who has been out of the political spotlight for quite some time (JLT) and someone who’s never held an elected office before (Schellinger, an Indianapolis architect).  

Want some gravy for those trimmings?  Mitch’s approve/disapprove rating stands at a rough 40%/50% and 57% think that the state is headed in the wrong direction.

Daniels won’t be easy to beat by any means, but these and other poll results showing that more Hoosiers plan to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate than they do for the Republican nominee are leaving many wondering if blue dreams could come true next year.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

We’ve just confirmed the veracity of  this poll, which was conducted between Sept. 18 and 24 by Penn, Schoen, Berland Associates.  The poll shows conservative Democrat Dan Lipinski vulnerable to a primary challenge.  Here are the excerpts from Archpundit (likely primary voters):

Lipinski Re-elect: 35%
Generic Congressional Approval: 37%
±5%

82%: Less likely to vote for Lipinski on the issue of choice once they learn that he opposes a woman’s right to choose and supports criminalizing abortion even in cases of rape or incest

83%: Less likely they would vote for Lipinski after they learned that he voted for the Bush energy proposal and voted to allow drilling in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge

76%: Favor a mandate calling for a pull-out of troops from Iraq beginning immediately with all troops out within a year as well as a cap on war funding to ensure the Bush Administration meets that goal

17%: Favor a proposal calling for a complete pullout within five years and no cap on funding.

Dan Lipinski has been one of the most out-of-touch Democrats in the House, consistently voting as if he were in a conservative area while representing a Chicago district with a PVI of D+10.  With a credible primary challenger in the race — progressive attorney Mark Pera — Lipinski is roaming in very perilous territory right now.

You can view a copy of the polling memo here.

Dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, a candidate for the open seat of retiring Republican Rep. Dennis Hastert, released an internal poll this week that shows him looking strong in the upcoming special election.  From McLaughlin & Associates (R) (10/16-18, likely voters):

Jim Oberweis (R): 49%
Bill Foster (D): 22%
Undecided: 29%

Jim Oberweis (R): 47%
John Laesch (D): 27%
Undecided: 26%

Jim Oberweis (R): 47%
Jotham Stein (D): 20%
Undecided: 33%
(MoE: 5.7%)

Huge leads in every scenario for Oberweis.  If accurate, he’s in a strong position to retain this seat for the GOP.  To the best of my knowledge, Foster, the self-funding physicist, has yet to go up on the air (Oberweis has been running commercials), so his numbers are dampened by a general lack of name ID.  Still, that is a tough position to claw back from in a district that gave 55% of its vote to Bush in 2004.

The one caveat: the GOP primary still looks unsettled at this point.

Jim Oberweis (R): 41%
Chris Lauzen (R): 37%
Kevin Burns (R): 3%
Undecided: 19%
(MoE: 5.4%)

Not a commanding lead for Obie-Wan just yet, although he definitely has the cash to smoke Lauzen, a state senator, out of contention.

With the December 11th special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R), we now have our first poll of the race.

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Bob Latta (Nov. 11-12, likely voters):

Robin Weirauch (D): 36%
Bob Latta (R): 50%

Generic Democrat: 37%
Generic Republican: 45%
(MoE: ±5.2%)

This is a district that gave Bush 61% of its vote in 2004, so Latta’s 50% and especially the generic R tallies are especially underwhelming.  POS isn’t the most reputable of Republican pollsters, but the result is still interesting.  Weirauch has a tough hill to climb and not much time to do it, but Latta isn’t blowing her out of the water yet.