Tag: Polls

Earlier this week, we wrote about the latest Ipsos poll of the Kentucky Senate race, and highlighted some reservations made by Jonathan Singer on inconsistencies between Ipsos’ turnout model and turnout statistics from the Kentucky Board of Elections. Clifford Young of Ipsos reached out to us via email in order to explain the math, and I thought it would only be fair to share his explanation with you:

[T]here was mention that our turnout estimates were incongruent with past Kentucky board of election turn out figures-that they were too high.  On your specific point, we agree that the official Kentucky electoral turnout results are lower than our estimates (approximately 50% versus 70%).

We, however, shy away from using electoral board results as such data sources are notorious for double counting people that have moved and not culling those who have died.  In our estimate, such data sources over-estimate by 20 to 30% the actual registered vote count.

Instead, we rely on the Census Bureau’s CPS (Current Population Survey) for our estimates.  In November of every electoral year, the CPS includes a registered voter and turnout module on the survey and produces official estimates of turnout. See here for an example.

For full disclosure, in the below table, I include our estimates of registered voter turnout based on CPS data.

Percent Turnout in Kentucky by Registered Voters and Citizen Adult Population

Source: Current Population Survey, US Census

	1998	2002	2006
Percent Registered Voters who Voted	68%	68%	67%
Percent Total Population of Citizens who Voted	46%	45%	49%

I think it worthwhile to point out that the Kentucky election results that you cite indicate that in 2006 there were a total of 2,766,288 registered voters, while the CPS estimates that there were 2,240,000 registered voters-an approximate 500,000 voter difference.  If the Kentucky registered voter numbers were right, that would mean that about 91% of the adult citizen population is registered to vote–which is too high by any standard.

For these very reasons, we use the CPS estimates-with all the caveats in using sample surveys-as our turnout estimates.

Hope this clarifies our rationale.  I hope this was not too esoteric.  Keep up the good work.

Best,

Cliff Young

Managing Director, Public Sector

Ipsos Public Affairs

Public Policy Polling (8/14-15, likely voters, 6/12-13 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 30 (30)

Bill Brady (R): 39 (34)

Rich Whitney (G): 11 (9)

Undecided: 20 (27)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Just brutal. Some numbers: Pat Quinn’s job approval rating is an off-the-rails 23-53, he’s in third place among independents (at 15% to 19% for Whitney and 40% for Brady), and can only muster up 60% of Democrats to support his campaign.

Bill Brady may be a crazy, conservative SOB, but this is the type of year where voters may be willing to give crazy a chance — or at least, enough of them seem prepared to not stand in crazy’s way while it barrels down on Mr. Unpopularity like a freight train. After all, it’s not like the DGA isn’t trying to define Brady in the minds of voters. We just aren’t seeing any positive polling results so far for all their efforts.

InsiderAdvantage for WSB-TV (8/18, likely voters, no trend lines):

Roy Barnes (D): 41

Nathan Deal (R): 45

John Monds (L): 5

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4%)

InsiderAdvantage is out with their first general election poll of Georgia, and all signs are pointing to a tight race this fall. Among independents, a demographic that’s been giving Dems a hard time across the country, Deal leads Barnes by only 41-38.

Deal’s camp is spinning the results as if they represent something of a high-water mark for Barnes, arguing that their candidate just emerged from a bloody runoff (not to mention several days of Barnes attack ads), and is still standing on top. Maybe, but I can’t help but get the feeling that this race is just getting warmed up.

Also of interest is an accompanying article by InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery on the poll’s results. One graf in particular stands out:

Make no mistake – this will be a tight race. But for Barnes to win he must shed the country boy image he has been projecting on television and go after the independent voters who seem inclined to consider voting for him. Barnes must become the metro Atlanta candidate, and that means the real Roy Barnes, who is articulate and sophisticated, must emerge in his commercials. For Deal to win, he must convince voters that he is familiar with statewide issues and that he is not tainted by ethical problems, tax problems or other questions that would be left hanging were he to be elected governor.

Interesting food for thought: Can Barnes successfully resurrect the old rural/urban Democratic road map to statewide victory in Georgia, or is he going to need to write a new playbook?

Meanwhile, we’ve also got some Senate numbers:

Michael Thurmond (D): 35

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 47

Chuck Donovan (L): 7

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4%)

Pretty weak tea for Isakson — this guy is hardly beloved by any means. Still, it’s hard to see Thurmond powering himself to anything beyond a respectable showing.

Braun Research for cn|2 (8/16-18, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 42 (31)

Rand Paul (R): 41 (41)

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3.5%)

cn|2 is reporting this one as a tie, and it essentially is — down to decimal points, Conway leads by a margin of 41.7 to 41.2 for the rogue ophthalmologist. (Update: Not that we think it’s legit to go to so many significant digits…)

Rand Paul’s campaign is questioning Braun for its gyrating results, but cn|2 notes that other results from the last two polls, such as Obama’s approval (40%) and the generic ballot (a 12-point GOP advantage), have been consistent. Perhaps the shift is legit, and perhaps it could be explained in part by Paul’s controversial comments on how the illicit drug trade in Kentucky is not a “real pressing issue” and that federal funding for anti-drug initiatives should be pulled. That sort of talk didn’t go over too well with law enforcement officials in Eastern Kentucky, where the problem is particularly pronounced; it’s worth noting that the Congressional District with the biggest jump in support for Conway was the Eastern 5th CD. Conway trailed in that district by 24-38 two weeks ago, and now trails by only 38-42. (Yes, the usual caveat about obese margins of error applies for small sub-samples like these.)

There’s still some life in this one, yet.

• LA-Sen: That ginned-up internal poll that Chet Traylor released a few days ago (showing him within 12 of David Vitter) seems to have served its intended purpose, for what its worth: the contributions have started coming in at a much greater pace over the last few days. He pulled in $30K in three days, almost doubling up on the $42K he raised over the previous duration of his campaign (and most of which he blew on his new anti-Vitter radio ad). And this can’t please Vitter, either: a local paper is reporting to Vitter’s troublesome ex-aide, Brent Furer, traveled back from DC to Louisiana several times on the public’s dime, at points that just happened to coincide with his various trials on charges of drunk driving.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle seems to be wandering all over the map in search of a position on Social Security privatization, one that’s extreme enough to satisfy her teabagging core supporters but not so extreme that it scares off, y’know, old people. She’s removed the words “transitioned out” from her website (regarding Social Security) but, when pushed yesterday, said that she hasn’t changed her view that that’s how she feels about it (despite running ads claiming that she wants to “save” Social Security).

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak, meet Raul Labrador? As you probably know, there’s a common-sense rule of thumb that you don’t release your internal polls unless they show you, y’know, ahead of your opponent. Nevertheless, somebody (unclear whether it was the DSCC or the Sestak camp) leaked NBC a Peter Yang internal of the race giving Pat Toomey a 2-point lead over Sestak, 46-44. Obviously, that’s not designed to create a sense of Sestak’s inevitable victory as most internals are designed to do, but it’s pushback against this week’s PPP poll, where the switch to LVs hurt Sestak’s numbers, probably oriented toward letting contributors know that this race is still in play. The DSCC has also been nailing Toomey on the rather arcane issue of derivatives, which had a key role in inflating the asset bubble that popped and left all our faces covered in pink sticky goo in 2008. Somehow I doubt more than 1% of the nation can offer a cogent explanation of what derivatives (especially credit default swaps) do, but at any rate, they’ve tracked down three separate times when Toomey as Congressman, on the House floor, praised the use of derivatives, something he’s lately tried to distance himself from.

• WA-Sen: We’re up to 67% reporting in Washington, with the numbers not really having budged from Tuesday night (still 46 Patty Murray, 34 Dino Rossi, 12 Clint Didier), but more than three-quarters of the remaining precincts are in the Dem-friendly King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties, so look for some future budging. Meanwhile, here’s a comparison that only true politics junkies will get… remember Fred Heineman? (The one-term Republican House member from NC-04 swept in in 1994, who then said that his $183,000 salary made him “lower-middle-class” and that the middle class extended up to $750K, and promptly got swept out in 1996.) Dino Rossi has apparently decided that he should be Washington’s answer to Heineman, as he essentially said that one-third of Washingtonians make over $200K per year. More specifically, he said 2.5 million Washingtonians would benefit from keeping the Bush-era tax cuts for those making more than $200K/yr. (In reality, 105K households, or 1.6% of the state’s population, fit that profile.)

• CA-Gov: Here’s an iceberg in the way for the serene cruise of the Queen Meg: activists at a convention of state conservatives this weekend plan a rude welcome for her. They plan to lambaste her on her non-extreme positions on an Arizona-style immigration law in California, and her support for greenhouse gas-limiting Proposition 19 23. Also, here’s some quantitative evidence for something that I’ve long suspected: Whitman has so oversaturated the airwaves with advertising that it went well past the point of having its desired effect and is now just getting people pissed off at her. A Jerry Brown staffer leaked that nugget from internal polling, finding that her own advertising has helped Whitman with 8% of voters and hurt her with 27% of voters.

• IA-03: Hot on the heels of the David Rivera story in FL-25, here’s another uncomfortable blast from the past for another Republican House candidate: records reveal that Brad Zaun, the GOP’s nominee against Leonard Boswell, had to be told by West Des Moines police to stay away from his ex-girlfriend after a late night visit to her house to pound on her windows and call her names.

• MO-03, MO-04: Odd little pollster We Ask America seems to be entering another period of being prolific, as now they’re out with a couple House polls from the underserved state of Missouri. They find Russ Carnahan fairly comfortable against Republican challenger Ed Martin in the 3rd, leading 48-39, but find veteran Dem Ike Skelton in a tighter race in the 4th, leading Vicky Hartzler 45-42. Skelton still draws the support of 27% of Republicans and 37% of indies, crucial to surviving this dark-red district.

• CfG: The Club for Growth is starting to switch gears from primaries (where they seem to have had a more productive run this year than in previous cyles) to the general. They’ve endorsed four Republican challengers who all cleared the primary bar: Stephen Fincher in TN-08, Todd Young in IN-09, Mick Mulvaney in SC-05, and Tim Griffin in AR-02.

• Ads: The most attention-grabbing ad today seems to be from Indiana Dem Joe Donnelly, who already tried to distanced himself from “the Washington crowd” in his previous ad. Now he’s basically thrown in the towel on trying to fight the messaging war and just start running with Republican memes, touting his opposition in his newest ad to “Nancy Pelosi’s energy tax.” Other ads worth checking out today include an RGA ad for Duke Aiona in HI-Gov, a Joyce Elliott ad in AR-02, a Michelle Rollins spot in DE-AL, and a Mike McIntyre ad in NC-07.

• Rasmussen:

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D) 45%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 44%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 36%, Brian Sandoval (R) 52%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 44%

Talk Business Research/Hendrix College for Talk Business (8/17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Joyce Elliott (D): 35

Tim Griffin (R): 52

Lance Levi (I): 3

Lewis Kennedy (G): 1

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Oof. The story is in the favorables: Griffin, who won his two-way primary back in May without a runoff, has a net favorable rating of 53-21. Elliott, who slogged through two rough rounds of primary balloting, is underwater at 32-45. Griffin even leads in Dem-friendly Pulaski County, which was one of those rare spots in Arkansas that voted for Barack Obama back in 2008.

The NRCC is already telegraphing that they consider this race in the bag, going so far as to highlight the open seat race in Arkansas’ 1st CD as a target for ad dollars this fall while signaling that they’re prepared to let Griffin stand on his own.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Quinnipiac (8/11-16, Florida voters, 7/22-27 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 31 (26)

Bill McCollum (R): 29 (27)

Bud Chiles (I): 12 (14)

Undecided: 21 (27)

Alex Sink (D): 33 (27)

Rick Scott (R): 29 (29)

Bud Chiles (I): 12 (14)

Undecided: 20 (26)

(MoE: ±3%)

All manner of other pollsters have given Alex Sink small leads in the gubernatorial race over the last month, thanks to the bizarre no-holds-barred civil war on the GOP side. Believe it or not, this is the first time that Quinnipiac has joined the rest in giving Sink the lead, despite that they’ve been one of the Crist-friendliest pollsters this year. Sink’s winning mostly just by standing around, smiling, and staying mud-free; she’s at 30/15 favorables, compared with 33/43 for McCollum and 28/40 for Scott among the general population.

Jeff Greene (D): 15 (17)

Marco Rubio (R): 32 (32)

Charlie Crist (I): 40 (37)

Undecided: 10 (12)

Kendrick Meek (D): 16 (13)

Marco Rubio (R): 32 (33)

Charlie Crist (I): 39 (39)

Undecided: 10 (14)

(MoE: ±3%)

With the gubernatorial race having gotten so explosive, it’s actually gotten easy to forget about the Senate race (which for a brief while was the absolute marquee Senate race). Things have been decidedly low-key lately between Crist and Rubio, while Meek and Greene pound each other in the Dem primary, all to little effect in the general. Crist actually gains a little ground in this sample, more pronouncedly with Jeff Greene as the Dem candidate (although they don’t find as wide a disparity in how Crist performs against Greene as against Meek as, say, Mason-Dixon did). With Crist having had the chance to dominate the airwaves acting gubernatorial during the oil spill, he’s actually pulled his favorables back above the 50% mark, at 53/33, while Rubio’s at 35/28. (Meek is at 24/25, while Greene is pretty much in ruins, at 18/31.)

With the likelihood (seeming apparent to all but Rasmussen) that Crist goes to Washington, questions are getting louder about what he’ll do when he gets there. Matt Yglesias raises an interesting (if terrifying) specter of a scenario for 2011, wherein Crist still wouldn’t have to pick sides: 49 Democrats (or 48 + Sanders, I presume), 49 Republicans, and then Charlie Crist and Joe Lieberman in the middle, forming their own caucus (the CfL/FLfC Party?) and wielding all the control over organizing the Senate.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (8/14-15, likely voters, 3/27-28 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 38 (41)

Roy Blunt (R): 45 (45)

Jerry Beck (C): 5

Jonathan Dine (L): 3

Undecided: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Robin Carnahan once had a small, persistent lead in this contest, but all that went up in depressingly sweet, sweet smoke back in January. (Granted, most of the polls since that time have been from the desk of Scott Rasmussen…)

PPP’s likely voter universe for Missouri has taken a turn for the red, with a sample that supported McCain over Obama by seven percent. With that in mind, Carnahan’s strategy seems based in part on making Blunt’s name poison among the anti-bailout crowd, releasing a new ad touting his role in shepherding the Wall Street bailout through the House in 2008. Maybe that’ll be good enough to shave off a few points from Blunt’s hide to the third-party candidates in November, but Carnahan will need to find a way to get listless Dems to the polls while she’s at it.

Ipsos/Reuters (8/13-15, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jack Conway (D): 40

Rand Paul (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Ipsos has dipped their thumb into the Kentucky pie for the first time this week, finding a 40-40 tie between Jack Conway and Rand Paul among registered voters, and a five-point Paul advantage among likely voters.

Jonathan Singer, formerly of MyDD, has some thoughts at his new blog, Polising, on Ipsos’ likely voter screen that are well worth considering. In screening their registered voter sample down to a pool of likely voters, Ipsos has whittled down their sample from 600 to 435 voters — suggesting a voter turnout at a level close to 73% of registered voters. That number is over 20 points higher than Kentucky voter turnout in the past three midterm elections, so it’s quite possible this sample has a few unlikely voters in its midst. Whom that would benefit, however, is up to debate.

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller has two things going for him in the Alaska GOP Senate primary: the endorsements of Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. On the other hand, Lisa Murkowski has the backing of about 1.9 million dead presidents behind her. That’s her cash on hand, based on $300K raised in July and early August. Miller raised only $68K in that span and now has $84K CoH.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA, no stranger to Republican-friendly samples lately, comes up with quite the GOP wipeout in Kansas. They find Republican Rep. Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston in the Senate race, 69-23, and find Sam Brownback leading state Sen. Tom Holland in the gubernatorial race, 67-25. They even find several Dem incumbents losing to GOP challengers in downballot races. It may be worth, noting, however, the disparity in self-described ideology between this sample and the 2008 exit polls: this poll is 49 conservative, 37 moderate, 9 liberal, compared with 2008’s 45 moderate, 38 conservative, 16 liberal.

• NV-Sen: With her endorsement percentage starting to trend steeply downward (with last night’s losses by Rita Meyer and Clint Didier), Sarah Palin’s trying out a new angle, literally. She’s backing Sharron Angle in Nevada, saying she’ll “actively help” her and that Angle “is putting up with more crap than she deserves.” Palin avoided getting involved in the primary, probably in large part because of other family members’ support for Danny Tarkanian.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov (pdf): Siena’s out with another look at the big-ticket races in New York, finding the same-old same-old. Kirsten Gillibrand leads Bruce Blakeman 55-28, Joe DioGuardi 54-29, and David Malpass 55-27. DioGuardi is on track to win the GOP Senate primary, leading Blakeman and Malpass 19-8-5. And Andrew Cuomo is even more dominant, leading Rick Lazio 60-26 and Carl Paladino 60-27. Lazio leads Paladino 43-30 in the GOP primary, much closer than previous months. Further down the ballot, they find incumbent Dem comptroller Tom DiNapoli leading Harry Wilson 46-28, and Dems leading a generic ballot-type question about the state legislature, 33-27.

• CO-Gov: Dan Maes picked his running mate: former state Rep. and former Dept. of Regulatory Agencies head Tambor Williams. Williams seems to actually be something of a moderate by today’s GOP standards, which is an interesting act of ticket-balancing by the wackadoodle Maes (although you have to wonder how “moderate” someone willing to be joined at the hip to Maes can be). Meanwhile, Tom Tancredo is focusing most of his fire on Maes, not on John Hickenlooper, attacking Maes’, well, utter lack of qualifications. Tancredo seems to realize that the only path to viability in this election as an indie is reducing Maes to the Alan Schlesinger-style single-digits role. And guess who’s throwing up their hands and walking away? The RGA, which according to several local Republicans, has confirmed it won’t be spending money in Colorado.

• ID-Gov, ID-01: We’ve gotten an inkling that the Idaho gubernatorial race (where GOP incumbent Butch Otter was elected with lackluster numbers in 2006) was possibly a real race, and these poll numbers seem to confirm it. I don’t know whether to call this a Republican poll (it’s taken by a local pollster who usually works for Republicans, Greg Strimple, on behalf of the Idaho Hospital Association) or an independent one, but either way, it’s not good news for the GOP. Otter leads Dem Keith Allred by only 47-36. Also good news: that Raul Labrador internal poll that had him losing by double digits was actually pretty optimistic, on his part. This sample sees Dem Walt Minnick beating Labrador by a startling 52-29 margin. Maybe all that chatter about the NRCC moving to write off this seat has some real roots.

• VT-Gov: Lone Republican Brian Dubie is the fundraising leader in the decidedly small-dollar gubernatorial race in Vermont. Dubie has raised the most over the course of the campaign (slightly more than $1 million). (Maybe if Meg Whitman can’t win in California, she should consider moving to Vermont and buying the gubernatorial race here. In fact, maybe she should just consider buying the entire state of Vermont, which would still be cheaper than buying the gubernatorial race in California.) The Dems are all closely bunched, with Peter Shumlin and Deb Markowitz more or less tied for most raised. But all five major Dems are low on cash, each reporting less than $100K CoH (Matt Dunne has the most, at $83K). For some reason, the article doesn’t tell us Dubie’s CoH.

• GA-08: GOP state Rep. Austin Scott (following hot on the heels of fellow legislator and GA-02 candidate Mike Keown’s internal poll release) is out with an internal showing a competitive race against Rep. Jim Marshall. Marshall leads Scott 44-39 in the poll conducted in late July by American Viewpoint.

• MI-01: This has the potential to mightily reshuffle things in the open seat race in the 1st… or it could turn out to be so much wind in sails, as promises of massive self-funding usually are. Random teabagger and indie candidate Glenn Wilson is promising to spend $2 million of his own money in order to defeat Gary McDowell and Dan Benishek, the Dem and GOP nominees. In this rural seat with dirt-cheap media markets, that could go a long way toward blanketing the airwaves… but without the organizational backing that the party apparatuses provide, that seems like it still might not translate into actual votes.

• TN-08: Humble farmer/gospel singer and, in his spare time, director of Fight Club, Stephen Fincher is out with an internal poll from the Tarrance Group that gives him a lead over Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron in this open seat race. He claims a 47-37 lead, with conservative indie Donn James at 5, in a poll taken immediately post-primary. Herron, who avoided much trouble in the primary and was able to bank a lot of money, is already hitting Fincher with TV ads, though.

• RGA: One nice thing about the post-Citizens United universe is that it lets us see everything in the open that we’ve only just suspected in the past. Case in point: Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. (the Fox News and WSJ parent corporation) just gave $1 million to the Republican Governors Association. Insert obvious snarky comment about “Fair and Balanced” here.

• Rasmussen:

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 40%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 40%, John Kasich (R) 48%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 38%, Tom Corbett (R) 48%