Tag: Polls

Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now (8/10-17, likely voters, 4/23-28 in parens):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 49 (36)

Mufi Hannemann (D): 44 (32)

Undecided: 8 (21)

(MoE: ±4.8%)

General election numbers:

Neil Abercrombie (D): 53 (49)

Duke Aiona (R): 41 (35)

Undecided: 6 (16)

Mufi Hannemann (D): 54 (48)

Duke Aiona (R): 37 (35)

Undecided: 9 (17)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This one’s been sitting on our shelf for a couple of days, so now’s a good time to clear the decks before it starts to collect dust. Note that Ward Research has shifted away from their unusual approach in sampling that they deployed back in May and gone for a more conventional sample.

Favorable ratings for all three of these guys are pretty even: Aiona’s at 57-31, Abercrombie’s at 57-36, and Hannemann’s at 55-38. In the general election, both Democrats lose independents to Aiona by varying degrees (Abercrombie by 41-49 and Hannemann by 32-52) and aren’t holding onto Democrats very strongly (Hannemann leads among Dems by 72-21 and Abercrombie leads by 71-24). The problem remains, though, that there are just way more Democrats than Republicans in Hawaii. Aiona has a shot, but he’ll probably need the Democratic primary to get a bit nastier first.

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters,

Alex Sink (D): 41 (36)

Rick Scott (R): 34 (30)

Bud Chiles (I): 8 (13)

Undecided: 22 (NA)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PPP is out of the gate with the first poll of the Florida gubernatorial election now that billionaire creepazoid Rick Scott is the Republican nominee (although, note that the poll was conducted over the weekend). It seems that Rick Scott has gorged himself on cat fud, as his favorable rating is an abysmal 28-49 compared to Sink’s 35-23. Only 57% of Republicans are committing to Scott while Sink enjoys the support of 72% of Democrats. Independents, who detest Scott (giving him a 54% unfavorable rating), lean toward Sink by a 37-28 spread.

It doesn’t sound like Billy McCollum is all that keen on hopping aboard the Rick Scott bandwagon. His concession statement doesn’t even mention Scott by name, choosing instead to refer to the medicare fraudster as “a multi-millionaire with a questionable past” who put out “false and misleading advertising”. That sure doesn’t sound like the tone of a man who’s anywhere near ready to endorse his party’s nominee, does it? I’m sure McCollum would rather let Scott grease for a while (at least) instead.

Things are definitely looking up for Alex Sink, although she’ll be faced with the whirling blades of Rick Scott’s gazillions. She’s already up on the airwaves with her first post-primary ad, though, with a spot that highlights her reform priorities.

AR-Sen: Quelle surprise: The AFL-CIO, which was a major supporter of Bill Halter, won’t endorse Blanche Lincoln in the general.

NV-Sen: Your daily dose of Angle Crazy comes courtesy Greg Sargent:

MANDERS: We have domestic enemies. We have home-born homegrown enemies in our system. And I for one think we have some of those enemies in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.

ANGLE: Yes. I think you’re right, Bill.

PA-Sen: Karl Rove’s gang of ne’er-do-wells is out with an ad attacking Joe Sestak. NWOTSOTB.

WI-Sen: Weirdo Ron Johnson has a new ad out, trying to sell himself as just a reg’lar guy. NWOTSOTB, but the “ad is airing statewide on cable and broadcast TV starting Tuesday, according to a campaign spokeswoman.” Meanwhile, the new right-wing group American Action Network is dropping a $325K ad buy against Russ Feingold. Some background on the group (whose backers include Nixon hatchet man Fred Malek – whataguy!) here.

HI-Gov: Wow. Former Rep. (and recent special election loser) Ed Case went somewhat against type and endorsed Neil Abercrombie over Mufi Hannemann in the Dem gubernatorial primary. The “centrist” Case seemingly had more in common with Hannemann, the urbane mayor of Honolulu, than Abercrombie, the septuagenarian progressive. And Case didn’t just issue some anodyne statement – he utterly lambasted Hannemann:

Case called him “the most dangerous politician in a generation,” adding that Hannemann governs “by fear and intimidation.”

“He is the product and clear choice of a political machine that must end. While professing unity, he’s practiced the politics of division, exploiting rather than healing differences of race, origin and economic status,” Case said.

CO-03: Republican Scott Tipton is touting an internal poll from Magellan, showing him with a 49-43 lead over Rep. John Salazar. Salazar says his own internals have him leading. One FYI about this (and most other) Magellan polls: It’s a one-day sample, much like Rasmussen, and – I would guess – does not include callbacks. Nate Silver previously laid out in great detail how a lack of callbacks can negatively affect poll quality.

KS-04: Raj Goyle is up with a positive bio spot touting his “Kansas values.” NWOTSOTB, though this district is centered around Wichita, which is a pretty cheap media market.

MA-10: Great headline:

Jeff Perry ‘proud’ despite work on bogus degree

Meanwhile, Dem Rob O’Leary is out with his first TV ad, which interestingly enough calls for an end to the war in Afghanistan. NWOTSOTB, and WARNING – AUTOPLAYING YOUTUBE. Very annoying.

MI-07: AFSCME has a new ad out hitting Republican retread Tim Walberg for his votes in Congress, though I think the messaging is a little muddled. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB just yet, but presumably the union will have to file an IE report soon.

NJ-12: GOPer Scott Sipprelle claims he’s launching his “third positive, issue-based cable television commercial this summer.” First off, check out the ad (which attacks “Washington politicians right at the start”) and then tell me if you think it’s “positive.” Secondly, I’m guessing that this ad is much closer to a “video press release” (as Nathan Gonzales calls them) than a real buy, given that this district lies mostly in the #1-most expensive media market in the country (and the rest is in Philly, which ain’t exactly cheap), and that Sipprelle acknowledges it’s a cable-only buy.

NY-14: It seems like a long time ago now, but remember when Carolyn Maloney came oh-so-close to primarying appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand? Well, it’s an old memory indeed, seeing as Gillibrand is hosting a breakfast fundraiser in Manhattan for Maloney next week.

OH-16: Jim Renacci is up with his first ad of the general election campaign – which I can only assume is targeted at his race against me for NYC Zoning Board. But it’s weird that he keeps talking about Ohio, no? Anyhow, a spokesman says the ad “is part of a $250,000 two-week buy” on both broadcast and cable. Do you think it’s running on New York 1?

OH-17: Jim Traficant missed the deadline to file as a write-in candidate, but his supporters are still hoping for a favorable ruling from SoS Jennifer Brunner on whether Traficant can appear as an independent. If not, they are supposedly threatening to go to court.

PA-04: Great, another one of these. Much like Joe Donnelly, Jason Altmire has a new ad up claiming he that he’s “not afraid to stand up to the president – and Nancy Pelosi.” Lovely. NWOTSOTB.

PA-10: It’s nice when Republican delusions help us win campaigns. Here’s Tom Marino’s latest:

“My generation and probably the generation that follows me, we are going to have to step up to the plate and say,” he said. “We are not going to get Social Security,” he said. “But we are going to pay into it to get this debacle squared away. So if I have to sacrifice my Social Security to get it squared away … because we can’t take Social Security away from people that are on it now.

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: ColoradoPols has an interesting question up at their site: who’s crazier, the Republicans’ candidate in the Senate race or the Governor’s race? (In fact, that’s a good question for the comments here… not just Colorado, but for a whole number of other states too.) The DSCC would like the answer to be “Ken Buck,” the whole Dan Maes UN-bicycle-plot thing notwithstanding: they’re out with a new ad working the Paul/Angle-style “too extreme” angle, here focusing on Buck’s support for eliminating the 17th amendment.

• PA-Sen: This is going to be a hard one for Pat Toomey to explain without some high-impact semantic gymnastics. At the Pennsylvania Press Club yesterday, Toomey said “I’ve never said I favor privatizing Social Security.” The DSCC promptly rolled out 36 different newspaper articles in which Toomey favored privatizing Social Security. We Ask America did offer some sustenance for Toomey, though: they find him leading Joe Sestak 48-35.

• FL-Gov: Here’s a bad sign for the Republican Party of Florida (aka RPOF, pronounced “rip-off”), who poured a lot of money into carrying Bill McCollum across the finish line in the primary and will have to keep propping him up for November. They’re down to $54K in their federal campaign finance account (after plowing much of their holdings into outside committees backing McCollum). Maybe they’d been counting on a reimbursement check from disgraced former state party chair Jim Greer to help fill their coffers a bit, but here’s the ultimate ignominy: Greer’s $7K check to reimburse the party for overcharges bounced.

• LA-03: Politico has a preview of the Republican primary in the open seat 3rd (which will be decided this Saturday, don’t forget). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty universally considered frontrunner, but he faces a double-teabagging from attorney Jeff Landry and engineer Kristian Magar, who are pointing to his decades as a Democrat, and his snubbing of Tea Party events. Downer’s fate could rest on whether he clears the 50% mark and avoids a runoff, as he could face more trouble against just one opponent.

• MI-01, MI-07: It looks like the Tea Party won’t be getting a ballot line in Michigan, after a 2-2 decision by the state’s Board of Canvassers. (The tie means they’re kept off the ballot.) Republicans brought the challenge pointing to possible Democratic involvement in getting the Tea Party on the ballot (to the extent that a member of the Oakland County Dem leadership helped them). This probably has the greatest impact in the competitive races in the 1st and 7th, where the Tea Party had had candidates ready to go (Lonnie Lee Snyder and Danny Davis, respectively), presumably who would eat into the GOP’s vote share.

• NJ-06: Who knew that when Facebook was created that it’d become a preferred venue for leaking internal polls? Anna Little, the surprise victor in the NJ-06 GOP primary, is now touting a poll from National Research showing her trailing Rep. Frank Pallone 40-34.

• OR-05: One other GOP internal poll kicking around today: state Rep. Scott Bruun, is out with a poll via local Republican pollster Bob Moore giving him a 41-38 lead over freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader.

• Ads: The big ad of the day may be Harry Reid’s newest attack on Sharron Angle in NV-Sen, using her own words to seize on her claims that the state aid package was “money laundering.” Ted Strickland in OH-Gov is also out with a new ad, hitting John Kasich again on his ties to Lehman Brothers. Two House members facing credible challenges this year are also out with their first ads of the season: Republican Lee Terry in NE-02, focusing on his hatred of pork, and Democrat Martin Heinrich in NM-01, focusing on his constituent services.

• Outside Money: The Washington Post has a fantastic new little tool, in the form of a sortable chart that keeps track of outside expenditures by unions, Republican front groups, assorted weirdos, and all other manner of interest groups outside the two parties. Fun fact: did you know that Robert Kirkland (who spent $2.1 million) is #5 overall in total IEs for 2010 (on behalf of his brother Ron’s losing GOP primary run in TN-08), more than the Club for Growth, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or even the DSCC?

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 46%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 40%, Roy Blunt (R) 51%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 45%

• KY-Sen: The online “moneybomb” technique seemed to help Rand Paul get a lot of traction in the early months of the Republican primary, but his latest few scheduled moneybombs have been fizzles. Yesterday’s was a case in point: $258K is still a lot of dough for two days, but it was far short of the planned $400K. (And every penny counts: Paul reported only $319K CoH at the end of June.) Are Paulists feeling tapped out these days, or are his early-adopting libertarian-minded nationwide fans chafing that he’s increasingly parting ways with his dad and becoming more of an NRSC sock puppet? (As seen just today with their divergence over Cordoba House.)

• PA-Sen: Two pieces of good news in Pennsylvania: first, Joe Sestak is rolling out an endorsement from Chuck Hagel, the former GOP Senator from Nebraska who was on the short list for an Obama cabinet position. Not that Hagel is probably a household name in the Keystone State, but it certainly burnishes Sestak’s bipartisan (and military) cred. Also, the DSCC is planning to spend even more on this race, letting Sestak, presumably, keep marshaling his resources for a big late push (the kind that helped him shoot past Arlen Specter in the closing weeks in the primary). They’re spending $546K on broadcast media this week, on top of $494K last week; the DSCC’s total spending and reservations so far in this race amount to $4.4 million.

• WI-Sen: Hmmm, maybe all that sunspot and Greenland stuff actually started to stick. Republican wingnut candidate Ron Johnson is trying to undo the crazy on his various climate change comments, offering the usual last refuge of the pathetic walkback, that his remarks were “taken out context.” Johnson is also trying to walk back his previous support for elimination of the home mortgage interest deduction, about as popular a provision of the tax code as there is. If you wanted to simultaneously set back both the entire real estate business and the middle class by several decades, eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction would be a good way to do it.  

• IL-Gov: The exodus from the field of broken dreams that is the Pat Quinn camp just continues. Today, the departee is CoS Jerry Stermer, and while it isn’t a rancorous departure (as was the case with Quinn breaking it off with David Axelrod’s media firm last week), he is resigning to avoid being a distraction with an ethics investigation (over whether he sent political e-mails from his government account) hanging overhead. With Quinn seemingly circling the drain, that ain’t gonna help.

• AZ-05: In the “ooops, spoke too soon” department, presumed Republican primary frontrunner David Schweikert opted for a last-minute ad buy for $14K on cable, apparently worried that he was losing momentum going into tomorrow’s primary. Last week, his camp had said he was so far ahead they were just going to go dark and start saving money for the general. Meanwhile, next door in AZ-03, Steve Moak, the only candidate who rivals Ben Quayle on the money front, is out with a new ad hitting Quayle over his pseudonymous tenure writing for the website that was the precursor to TheDirty.com.

• FL-24: Wow, Craig Miller actually went there: he sent out a last-minute mailer going after the widely-known, but not yet broached in the campaign context, issue of GOP primary opponent Karen Diebel’s mental stability. Maybe he’d been planning to do a last-minute boom-lowering all along, but it seems kind of strange, as Miller’s millions have seemed to have the race locked down, not requiring him to get his hands dirty. Was there a last minute Diebel surge (she’s been attacking him on being too soft on immigration)?

• TX-23: Republican challenger Quico Canseco is out with an internal poll, via OnMessage, giving him a small lead over incumbent Dem Rep. Ciro Rodriguez. The poll gives Canseco a 43-37 lead, a turnaround from Rodriguez’s lead of 48-45 in a Canseco poll from June.

• Ads: Bobby Bright’s out with his first ad, in AL-02. SSP southern correspondent Trent Thompson’s description of the ad says it all, so I’ll just quote him: “”Bobby” voted against everything Obama. Also, he kisses a baby.” Ben Chandler is also out with an ad in KY-06, touting his saving the local VA Hospital. Finally, Rick Boucher’s GOP opponent, Morgan Griffith, is also out with a new TV spot, reminding you that he’s a conservative. (As an interesting ethno-linguistic observation, one clear indicator that VA-09 is an Appalachian district, not a Southern district, is that Griffith cites “Warshington” as being the source of all our problems.) NWOTSOTB, in all three cases.

• We Ask America: The quirky little Republican-linked pollster that could, We Ask America, is out with an array of polls in Illinois (the state where they’re based). They find Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias 39-33, but they also look at three House races. In fact, they looked at these races back in March, so we now have trendlines. In IL-11, they find Adam Kinzinger leading Debbie Halvorson 52-32 (down from an already bad 42-30); in IL-14, they have Randy Hultgren leading Bill Foster 44-37 (also down, from 38-36). The good news: they have Dan Seals leading Bob Dold! in IL-10, 43-40 (Seals led 40-37 in March, so he’s holding his own). We’ve also discovered a few recent WAA odds and ends that we didn’t cover earlier: they also see Roy Blunt leading Robin Carnahan 47-43 in MO-Sen, and see Sean Duffy leading 42-33 over Julie Lassa in WI-07.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Sen: William Barnes (D) 28%, Richard Shelby (R-inc) 60%

• AR-Gov: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 53%, Jim Keet (R) 33%

• MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) 55%, Eric Wargotz (R) 39%

• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 41%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 49%

Talk Business Research/Hendrix College for Talk Business (8/17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Chad Causey (D): 32

Rick Crawford (R): 48

Ken Adler (G): 4

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Ouch; what a brutal starting position for Chad Causey. Crawford, the beneficiary of a slam-dunk primary win, has an eye-popping 43-13 favorable rating, a much higher mark than the battle-scarred Causey’s 29-26. Each man is unknown to nearly half of the electorate, so there is still quite a bit of room for this race to evolve, but shifting it back away from the GOP will be a tough task. For his part, Causey will have to hope that Crawford’s past bankruptcy troubles become a bigger deal than that issue is today.

Note that this sample has a sample composition of 33% Republican and 31% Democratic — probably a more GOP-friendly sample than we’d be used to seeing from this ancestrally Democratic district, but maybe indicative of the folks who will actually be showing up to the polls this November.

UPDATE: The Causey campaign has responded by releasing their own internal poll (available below the fold) by Garin Hart Yang (8/16-18) showing the race at a much closer margin of 41-40 for Crawford. Details below.

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters, 7/16-18 in parens):

Rick Scott (R): 47 (43)

Bill McCollum (R): 40 (29)

Undecided: 13 (28)

(MoE: ±5.6%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 51 (28)

Jeff Greene (D): 27 (25)

Glenn Burkett (D): 5 (6)

Maurice Ferre (D): 4 (4)

Undecided: 13 (37)

(MoE: ±5.4%)

With the Sunshine State’s primaries tomorrow, three major pollsters have rolled out last-minute predictions today. For the Democratic Senate race, everyone’s in agreement, except for maybe the magnitude of the victory. However, for the Republican gubernatorial primary, there are some divergent results, and PPP seems to be the odd man out this time. Contrary to the general trend of this race lately (I don’t know if there’s ever been a clearer illustration of “peaking too early” than this graph of Pollster trendlines), they give Rick Scott a 7-point lead over Bill McCollum. It’s still an improvement for McCollum over their July numbers, where he trailed by 14.

PPP’s GOP sample gives McCollum favorables of 38/45, while Scott’s actually above water at 46/33. Did they manage to find a group of voters who somehow have avoided the last few months’ worth of attack ads about Scott’s gigantic Medicare fraud?

Quinnipiac (8/21-22, likely voters, 8/11-16 in parens):

Bill McCollum (R): 39 (44)

Rick Scott (R): 35 (35)

Undecided: 22 (19)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 39 (35)

Jeff Greene (D): 29 (28)

Maurice Ferre (D): 3 (6)

Undecided: 28 (29)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Quinnipiac finds a small lead for McCollum (smaller than they did a week earlier, showing that McCollum’s late surge seems to have maxed out); their pool of GOP voters gives 39/37 faves to McCollum and 31/40 to Scott. Interestingly, they also find a much smaller lead for Meek than did PPP, and freakishly high undecideds (28%) for an election that’s, y’know, tomorrow, indicating how little motivation the Dem primary seems to have generated.

Mason-Dixon for Miami Herald (pdf) (8/17-19, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parens):

Bill McCollum(R): 45 (34)

Rick Scott (R): 36 (30)

Mike McAlister (R): 4 (3)

Undecided: 15 (33)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 42 (40)

Jeff Greene (D): 30 (26)

Maurice Ferre (D): 4 (5)

Glenn Burkett (D): 1 (NA)

Undecided: 23 (28)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Mason-Dixon’s numbers are a few days older than PPP’s and Quinnipiac’s; they’re pretty closely in line with Quinnipiac, although they see the biggest lead of all three for McCollum over Scott (and more momentum, compared with last week). They give McCollum 43/32 favorables, compared with 33/40 for Scott. Could this truly be the end of the line for shameless bald supervillain Scott? (The Lex Luthor comparisons have written themselves this cycle — but to me Scott’s always been the Bizarro World version of Peter Garrett, the very liberal, very earnest, very tall, very bald Australian Labor Environment Minister… who those of you who were listening to music in the 80s probably remember better as the singer for Midnight Oil.)

UPDATE: Was it worth it? Pre-primary campaign finance reports came out, and between Scott and McCollum, $70 million was spent on the GOP gubernatorial primary: $49.9 million from Scott, $21 million for McCollum (although the majority of the money spent on McCollum’s behalf was from allied outside groups). No worries: even after that spending, Scott still has a net worth of $218 million.

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (8/18-19, likely voters, 4/19-22 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 45 (42)

Dino Rossi (R): 52 (52)

Undecided: 3 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

Let’s see… we could believe this SurveyUSA poll, which seems to be one of a growing string of west coast outliers for them (leaving them fully 11 points to the right of Rasmussen), or we could believe the poll taken on Tuesday, that had 0% undecideds, 0% leaners, a MoE of 0%, and an n of probably 1.6 million (1 million so far, with only two-third counted). I’m talking, of course, about Washington’s Top Two primary, which, because of its unusual all-parties-in-one-pool nature, functions as essentially the most accurate poll you’re going to see taken all cycle.

The usual rule of thumb in the Top 2 primary is to project the total Dem and total GOP percentages out toward November. The current individual totals (with only 2/3ds of votes counted, though) are still Patty Murray 46, Dino Rossi 34, Clint Didier 12, but the real story is that the total Dem and GOP votes are essentially 50-49 right now, with a lead of 10,000 for all GOP candidates (Rossi, Didier, Paul Akers, and a whole bunch of anonymous weirdos) over all Dem candidates, out of more than a million votes. So for this SurveyUSA poll to be right:

a) Dino Rossi would have to consolidate every GOP vote behind him — every Didier vote, every Akers vote, every Norma Gruber vote, and so on — pick up every vote from every third-party or no-party candidate, pick up every vote for all the other hapless Dems who ran in the primary (including every Goodspaceguy vote and Mike the Mover vote), and then somehow turn around 1% of the electorate who voted for Patty Murray in the primary to vote for him instead,

a1) and that’s all presuming that the 46-34-12 percentages don’t change, although they most likely will, in a Murray-favorable direction by another percent or two, as the majority (1200 out of 2000) of outstanding precincts still to report are in traditionally slow-to-report King, Pierce, or Snohomish Counties… or

b) the number of Dems participating in November would have to be smaller, rather than bigger, than the number particpating in the primary… despite the fact that Dems had no major incentive to participate in Tuesday’s primary, seeing as how there weren’t any noteworthy Dem-on-Dem primary battles above the state legislative level, compared with the intensely fought Republican Senate contest in the primary and several others in House races. (In other words, the Democratic share in November is likely to go up from the primary, not down, when it’s actually for all the marbles instead of an academic exercise.)

Unlike a lot of SurveyUSA crosstabs, there isn’t the frequently-present quirk of young people loving the Republicans (here, the 18-34 set goes for Murray 50-49). Instead, the strangest number is that Murry and Rossi are tied in “metro Seattle” 48-48. That would be approximately true if “metro Seattle” were limited to suburban Pierce and Snohomish Counties (where current counts from Tuesday are 50 all GOP/48 all Dems in Pierce, and 50 all Dems/49 all GOP in Snohomish), but King County (which has a population greater than Pierce + Snohomish combined) is at 60 all Dems/37 all GOP. So, no, they aren’t tied in metro Seattle.

Also worth noting: SurveyUSA seemed to misunderestimate Murray’s vote share in their pre-primary polls (their last one saw a 41-33-11 primary), despite being close enough to the election to include a number of “actual voters,” i.e. those who’d already mailed in ballots. PPP, by contrast, came closer to nailing the primary from several weeks further out (predicting 47-33-10). SurveyUSA’s pre-primary sample didn’t also include general election matchups (their last general election trendlines are from April), but that same PPP sample that was quite close on the primary also projected a 49-46 race in favor of Murray in November (closely matching Rasmussen’s 50-46 win for Murray, with leaners pushed, from this week).

Also, PPP, in their sample several weeks ago, found that Rossi isn’t on track to consolidate all Didier and Akers voters; they were planning to go for Rossi by an 82-11 margin. That’s even more complicated by what seems to be an increase in tensions between the Rossi and Didier camps in the last few days, rather than any moves toward unity, after Didier gave a list of demands on Friday before he’d endorse Rossi. After Rossi shrugged that off, the Didier camp started dropping f-bombs in response to questions from local politics website Publicola:

Didier’s spokeswoman, Kathryn Serkes was more candid with us:

“So is Dino saying, ‘Fuck you’ to those people [who supported Didier]? ‘Fuck you, I don’t need your votes? I can win with 33 percent.'”

UPDATE: In my more cynical moments, I think that it could be that this whole conflict was scripted ahead of time, professional wrestling-style, in order to help Rossi burnish his moderate credentials by refusing to be held hostage by the teabagger, as he now has to sprint back to the middle. Somehow, though, it feels like it has that spark of autheniticity.

Public Policy Polling (8/14-16, likely voters, 6/19-21 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 35 (35)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (45)

Undecided: 17 (20)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

In the other half of the Pennsylvania sample that saw a big drop in Joe Sestak’s numbers against Pat Toomey because of PPP’s inevitable jump from a registered to likely voter model, the news isn’t quite as bad for Dan Onorato… but that’s mostly because he wasn’t doing very well to begin with. He loses only three points’ worth of ground, compared to Sestak’s nine. We’re getting to the point where we can’t blame Onorato’s failure to close within single digits on his unknownness, as this sample has about the same number of no-opinions for him (30/28 favorables) as it does for Corbett (33/23); it seems to have more to do with the anti-Dem nature of the year (which seems disproportionately strong in Pennsylvania), as well as the downdraft eminating from Ed Rendell (current approvals of 27/63).

One other point of serious concern for Pennsylvania Democrats: PPP did a generic House ballot test within the state, and it has a 48-39 advantage for the GOP. (That contrasts with a generic House ballot with a 46-40 Democratic advantage in Illinois, also from this week’s PPP sample.) With a lot of the state’s Democrats concentrated in just a few districts in Philly and Pittsburgh, that points to serious potential trouble for more than just the most vulnerable seats (the open seat in PA-07, Paul Kanjorski in PA-11) to some of the other ones too. While a statewide generic ballot isn’t of much more predictive value than a nationwide generic ballot, it certainly suggests that, say, Kathy Dahlkemper and Patrick Murphy need to be at the top of their games this cycle.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has to be feeling good about having limited this damage: few major Republican donors have switched over from Crist to Marco Rubio, after his switch to an independent campaign. Only five of Crist’s donors who gave more than $200 pre-switch have given similar amounts to Rubio since then, totalling only $6,340.

• LA-Sen: Clarus Research, on behalf of local TV station WWL, finds a somewhat closer Senate race in Louisiana than other pollster have; they see David Vitter leading Charlie Melancon 48-36 (with Vitter sporting a 51/37 approval). Vitter’s also in solid shape in his primary (suggesting that Chet Traylor internal was pretty thoroughly ginned-up with “informed ballot” questions); Vitter leads Traylor 74-5, with 3 for Nick Accardo.

• MO-Sen: The Missouri Senate race, not the recipient of much national attention until just recently, is now at the epicenter of ad spending. The DSCC is plowing $4 million into ads here (along with $1.3 million in KY-Sen), while Karl Rove-linked American Crossroads is also launching a new ad in Missouri, as well as one in NV-Sen. The combined buy is for $2 million (no word on how it breaks down between the states); maybe not coincidentally, Crossroads raised $2 million in July, almost all of which came from exactly two donors (prominent conservative donors Harold Simmons and Jerry Perenchio).

• WA-Sen: Maybe that usual calculus of adding Dino Rossi and Clint Didier votes in the primary to see if they add up to the Patty Murray votes shouldn’t apply… Didier just held a press conference today to announce that he’s not endorsing Rossi (at least not yet). He said he’d back Rossi if he promised to pledge to support no new taxes, sponsor an anti-abortion bill, and… get this… never vote for anything that would “increase the federal budget.” We’ll have to see if Rossi even bothers dignifying that with a response.

• WV-Sen, WV-Gov: A new “MindField Poll” (yes, that’s what they call it) by local pollster R.L. Repass finds an unsurprisingly large lead for Gov. Joe Manchin in the Senate special election; he leads GOPer John Raese 54-32, and is sitting on a 65% approval. They also look at the gubernatorial election in 2012 in the post-Manchin world, and find GOP Rep. Shelly Capito in the best shape. She beats all Democrats mentioned: Senate President (and Governor, if Manchin quits) Earl Ray Tomblin (43-29), state House Speaker Rick Thompson (44-29), Treasurer John Perdue (44-32), and SoS Natalie Tennant (40-37). Former Republican SoS Betty Ireland was also polled, but loses to all the Democrats (by margins as large as 44-24 to Tennant).

• CO-Gov: On what seems like a quest to be the first ever major party candidate to get 0% in a gubernatorial race, Dan Maes is busy pissing off his one remaining clutch of supporters, the teabaggers, with his choice of the somewhat centrist Tambor Williams as his running mate. She was a supporter of anti-TABOR Referenda C and D, but more aggravating to Maes backers is that although she says she’s anti-abortion, she’s taken some notably pro-choice votes in the leigslature. Maes hasn’t lost any major endorsers over it, but is running damage control on the right.

• IL-Gov: It seems like Pat Quinn may be racing Maes to the bottom, in terms of campaign woes. He and his media team — David Axelrod’s former firm, AKPD — parted ways, seemingly at Quinn’s decision. AKPD doesn’t seem to sad to be heading out the door; their terse statement about the parting of ways was, “We and the Quinn campaign agreed that our divergent approaches to disciplined, professional communications are incompatible. We wish Pat well.”

• FL-08: Daniel Webster is getting some last minute help on the stump in the closing days of the Florida primary campaign. Mike Huckabee (who endorsed Webster a long whiel ago) will appear with him this weekend.

• FL-22: Here’s a hilarious little piece on Allen West’s attempts to surround and conquer his district, rather than actually do anything in it: he just opened his new campaign office in West Palm Beach… in FL-23. He recently also held a town hall in FL-19, and perhaps most significantly, lives in Plantation, in FL-20. (It is worth noting the 22nd is one convoluted-looking district.)

• Mayors: That vaunted “anti-incumbent” year hasn’t panned out much in the primaries, but there is one other race coming up soon that looks like it’s on track for a loss by an incumbent. A new Clarus poll of the Washington, DC mayoral race finds Vincent Gray leading incumbent mayor Adrian Fenty, 39-36, in the Democratic primary.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks (D) 34%, Robert Bentley (R) 58%

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 27%, John Boozman (R) 65%

• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 38%, John Robitaille (R) 20%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 32%

• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 40%, Victor Moffitt (R) 17%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

• WY-Gov: Leslie Petersen (D) 24%, Matt Mead (R) 58%