Tag: Polls

• OH-Sen: Auto dealer Tom Ganley hasn’t really attracted anyone’s attention yet in the GOP primary, as ex-Rep. Rob Portman has the whole ‘inevitability’ thing going for him. This ought to get some attention, though: Ganley says he’s ready to spend more than $5 million, mostly his own money, to get noticed. Ganley has been sharpening his attacks on Portman as “career politician,” not a label you really want to get saddled with these days.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): The polls keep looking worse for Jon Corzine; this time it’s PPP’s turn. Chris Christie leads 50-36, with Corzine getting the votes of only 64% of Democrats and 26% of Independents. The 14-lead for Christie is up from 10, in PPP’s last outing in late June.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac finds that Democratic NYC Comptroller William Thompson pulls within 10 points of incumbent Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 47-37, but they note that this may have to do with a small tweak in method than any larger trend. In this poll, they identified Bloomberg as “Independent and Republican” instead of just “Independent” as they did last time, when he did much better at 54-32. Thompson has been going on the offensive, though, so his name rec is probably much improved, too. Thompson beats Queens city council member Tony Avella in the primary, 44-11. Both Bloomberg and Thompson has positive job approval rates: 63/29 and 53/10, respectively.

• CA-10: The fields are set for the Sep. 1 special primary election, and now state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier is the first to hit the TV airwaves, running an ad focusing on health care reform.

• RNC: Also on the health care front, the RNC (not the NRCC, interestingly) is running radio spots against 60 different House Democrats, mostly in conservative-leaning districts, accusing them of a “dangerous experiment.” There are also TV ads in the cheapo markets of Nevada, North Dakota, and Arkansas. That sounds like a huge package, but the whole thing is only costing them $1 million.

• TN-St. Sen.: Get ready for a special election in the Tennessee Senate in SD 31 in the Memphis suburbs; GOP Sen. Paul Stanley resigned yesterday (leaving the GOP with an 18-14 edge, with 1 vacancy) after he was Unmasked having an affair with his 22-year-old female intern, after the intern’s boyfriend tried extorting him over naughty pictures. Naked pictures of state senate groupies? Hmmm… that sounds more like Gene Simmons to me than Paul Stanley. (In case you’re wondering, her name is not “Beth,” although based on her previous track record, she does certainly seem to like to rock and roll all night and party ev-er-y day) (Actually, I’m wondering if any one of these KISS references is going to have any resonance among SSP’s key readership demographics.)

• Initiatives: Michigan Democrats are interested in using the ballot initiative process in 2010 to short-circuit the whole legislative song-and-dance on some key issues that have some populist resonance with the voters. These might include a hike in the minimum wage to $10, temporary moratoria on home foreclosures, and requiring all employers to provide health insurance.

SurveyUSA (7/27-28, likely voters, 6/5-7 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (43)

Bob McDonnell (R): 55 (47)

Jody Wagner (D): 42

Bill Bolling (R-inc): 54

Steve Shannon (D): 42

Ken Cuccinelli (R): 53

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Whoa, those are some pug-ugly numbers for Democrats. Sure, McDonnell has gained back a bit of ground in recent weeks after Deeds’ primary bounce faded, but are things really this bad for Team Blue? (The second and third head-to-heads listed here are the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races, respectively.)

One note of caution is that SUSA’s voter ID composition for this poll has gyrated fairly significantly in the Republican direction. Back in June, their general election poll was composed of a 36% Dem, 34% GOP sample. This time, the poll is 38% Republican, 32% Dem. That’s an unusually favorable spread for the GOP; recent polls by R2K and PPP had 39D-32R and 34D-33R samples, respectively. Not coincidentally, those pollsters also showed a tighter gubernatorial race.

UPDATE: One thing that I missed in my first scan of the poll is that SUSA asked voters who they picked for President in 2008… and according to this sample, it was 52-43 in John McCain’s favor. (Obama won Virginia by 53-46.) Now, it could be that McCain fans are feeling pumped up these days and Obama voters are still taking a jenga break, but it’s clear that we’re dealing with a very different universe of voters here.

RaceTracker: VA-Gov

Quinnipiac (7/16-20, registered voters, 5/20-25 in parens, 3/26-31 in parens for Foley match-up):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39 (39)

Rob Simmons (R): 48 (45)

Undecided: 10 (13)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (41)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 40 (39)

Undecided: 15 (17)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (35)

Tom Foley (R): 42 (43)

Undecided: 14 (16)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 43

Peter Schiff (R): 38

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Woof. The subtle consensus over the past couple of months has been that Dodd was beginning his slow climb back to respectability (and electoral viability) by keeping his nose clean and burying himself in the legislative process — especially since his numbers ticked upward slightly in the last Q-Poll of the race — but these numbers are still freak-nasty.

The Q also takes another look at the Dem and GOP primaries:

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 52 (44)

Merick Alpert (D): 18 (24)

Undecided: 27 (30)

(MoE: ±4%)

Rob Simmons (R): 42 (48)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 5 (10)

Tom Foley (R): 5 (n/a)

Peter Schiff (R): 0 (n/a)

Undecided: 45 (39)

(MoE: ±5%)

Well, at least those numbers look a little better for Dodd, but they’re hardly anything to brag about. On the bright side, though, Dodd’s overall favorables are inching in the right direction. After cratering in Quinnipiac’s late March survey at 30-58 (ouch!), Dodd’s currently sitting on a 40-50 favorable rating, up from 37-51 in May. Still bad, but no longer utterly toxic.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

Strategic Vision (R) (7/17-19, likely voters, 6-12/14 in parentheses):

Roy Barnes (D): 46 (49)

Thurbert Baker (D): 31 (30)

David Poythress (D): 4 (5)

Dubose Porter (D): 3 (2)

Undecided: 16 (14)

John Oxendine (R): 38 (35)

Nathan Deal (R): 16 (12)

Karen Handel (R): 9 (13)

Eric Johnson (R): 5 (4)

Ray McBerry (R): 3 (2)

Austin Scott (R): 2 (2)

Undecided: 27 (32)

(MoE: ±3%)

Republican pollster Strategic Vision takes another look at both the primary fields in the Georgia governor’s race (sorry, no general election matchups). As their previous polls have shown, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine has a head start on the GOP field, while former Gov. Roy Barnes leads the Dems. Strategic Vision has repeatedly shown AG Thurbert Baker polling much stronger than Rasmussen.

Strategic Vision (R) (7/17-19, likely voters, 6-19/21 in parentheses):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (39)

Chris Christie (R): 53 (51)

Christopher Daggett (I): 5 (N/A)

Undecided: 4 (8)

(MoE: ±3%)

Strategic Vision also takes a look at the New Jersey’s governor’s race. This is very consistent with the most recent Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls. Suffice it to say that if Jon Corzine is going to start making a move, now would be the time to do it.

Quinnipiac (7/14-19, registered voters, 5/20-26 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (46)

Pat Toomey (R): 44 (37)

Undecided: 14 (10)

Joe Sestak (D): 35 (37)

Pat Toomey (R): 39 (35)

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Primary:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 55 (50)

Joe Sestak (D): 23 (21)

Undecided: 19 (27)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Snarlin’ Arlen finds himself on slightly more comfortable footing in the primary, but the general election is a different story. I can’t tell if the sample’s been skewed a bit in the GOP’s favor or not — Quinnipiac did poll an almost equal amount of Dems as they did Republicans this time, which is not something they did in May (and not something that reflects the Democratic registration advantage in PA), but it’s also possible that these are oversamples made for the purposes of getting a clearer primary picture on both sides. It’s hard for me to tell without being able to pop open the hood. It’d be surprising to me if Quinnipiac fell victim to a mistake that any Polling 101 student would spot, but stranger things have happened.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen

Quinnipiac (7/14-19, registered voters):

Dan Onorato (D): 16

Jack Wagner (D): 16

Tom Knox (D): 13

Undecided: 55

Tom Corbett (R): 38

Jim Gerlach (R): 15

Pat Meehan (R): 9

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Quinnipiac’s first look at the Pennsylvania governor’s race of 2010 finds that, well, people still haven’t decided on much of anything yet. AG Tom Corbett has a pretty solid edge in the GOP field (as the only statewide GOPer), and Rep. Jim Gerlach may be left wondering if he was safer staying in PA-06 all along. On the Democratic side, Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner both poll at 16, leaving them way behind “Undecided,” who has a solid majority.

Given that few people have any idea who these guys are, Quinnipiac simply asks a Generic Democrat/Generic Republican question instead of a bunch of different head-to-head permutations. Hearteningly for Democrats, that race is a dead heat, with R beating D 38-37. One other interesting number: Gov. Ed Rendell, who’s termed-out, seems to have caught the same case of recession-itis that’s dragging down all the other governors in the northeast and Rust Belt: his approvals are down to 39-53, in the wake of Pennsylvania’s month without a budget, down from 54-37 from their last measurement in May.

One other thing to think about: former US Attorney Pat Meehan had, for a period of about half a day in May, looked like he was about to bail on the governor’s race and move over to the probably open seat in PA-07, where he used to be Delaware County DA. Meehan batted down that rumor, but with his paltry performance in today’s poll, and now with Rick Santorum (an ally of Meehan) urging him to give a second thought to running in the 7th, you’ve gotta wonder if Meehan is reconsidering.

RaceTracker wiki: PA-Gov

Public Policy Polling (7/17-19, registered voters):

Charlie Melancon (D): 32

David Vitter (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Here’s our first public polling glimpse of this race in several months, and these numbers aren’t too terrible for Vitter, although he actually does worse against a Generic Democrat than against Melancon, leading by only 44-38. However, voters aren’t exactly thrilled with the idea of sending Vitter back for a second term; only 38% say he deserves another term, while 47% say that it’s time to give someone else a chance. Still, Vitter’s favorable scores (44-39) and job approval rating (44-36) are both in net positive territory.

Somewhat disturbingly, Melancon’s favorable rating is 26-32. You never like to see a challenger starting off a race in the net negative territory, but that still leaves him with 42% of the electorate that are approaching him with no firm opinions. And it’s also possible that this poll is a bit off; a March poll by Research 2000 gave Melancon a 43-18 rating, and also pegged the race at 48-41 in Vitter’s favor.

Tom Jensen sees parallels to Mary Landrieu’s 2008 race:

Vitter really is in a pretty similar situation to where Mary Landrieu found herself a couple years ago. She polled in the 40s in a lot of early surveys against John Kennedy, raising Republican hopes that she could be defeated. But she still ended up winning by a solid if not spectacular margin. Whether Democrats can better take advantage of the opening they appear to have here only time will tell.

And speaking of Melancon… it’s been over a month since word leaked that he was planning on running against Vitter, and those in the know assure us that he is definitely in. Melancon said that he would be making an announcement “in the coming weeks”. Just how many weeks did he have in mind?

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that there is also some continued speculation (hope?) among Louisiana’s press that Bobby Jindal will run against Vitter in order to save the office for the GOP, and many are now pouncing on a recent non-answer that he gave about the Senate race as proof that he’s leaving his options open. To me, it looks more like a brush-off by someone in a hurry rather than anything substantive, though.

RaceTracker: LA-Sen | LA-03

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/13-15, likely voters, no trend lines):

Paul Hodes (D): 42

Charlie Bass (R): 37

Paul Hodes (D): 38

Kelly Ayotte (R): 39

(MoE: ±4%)

This is probably the first legit public poll of the New Hampshire Senate race in a while (no, UNH and ARG do not count), so take a good long look.

Each of the three pols tested here boast decent favorable ratings, with Hodes at 34-21, Bass at 31-23, and Ayotte leading the pack at 36-13. However, as Laura points out, Ayotte also holds the largest share of “No Opinion” responses (51%), meaning that Hodes and the NHDP have a big opportunity to define her before she can set her own narrative.

RaceTracker wiki: NH-Sen

A backlog of polls have built up over the last couple days, none of which are that remarkable. Let’s clear the decks:

• NJ-Gov (pdf): Monmouth finds Chris Christie leading incumbent Jon Corzine 45-37 among likely voters (43-37 among RVs), with independent Chris Daggett pulling in 4%. That looks better than the Quinnipiac poll from Tuesday, but it’s a drop from the last Monmouth in April, where Christie led 39-35 among registered voters. Also troublesome: they ask whether Obama’s upcoming visit and endorsement will have any effect on how to vote, and 70% say it would have no effect.

• NY-Sen-B: Rasmussen polls the Democratic primary in New York’s senate special election for the first time, and finds Carolyn Maloney with a 33-27 edge over Kirsten Gillibrand, although 9% opt for “some other candidate” (presumably Jonathan Tasini, although some might just holding out for someone better). Both have high favorables: Gillibrand is at 49-25, while Maloney is at 44-24. They also looked at the NY-Gov Democratic primary, and found Andrew Cuomo whomping David Paterson, 61-27.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s latest suggests it’s time for someone in North Carolina to legally change his name to “Generic Democrat.” GOP incumbent Generic Republican Richard Burr leads Generic Democrat only 40-38 (after trailing G.D. 41-38 last month). Turning to actual human candidates, Burr leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham 40-31 and attorney Kenneth Lewis 42-31. Burr also shows a small uptick in his approval rating, 36-29, maybe the first time this year his “approves” have exceeded the “don’t knows” (at 35%).

• TX-Gov: Rasmussen finds that Gov. Rick Perry’s lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Texas governor’s GOP primary is growing. He holds a 46-36 lead, while he led only 42-38 in May. Hutchison may be having second thoughts about giving up her day job.

• VA-Gov: Finally, Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor’s race, and like the other most recent polls here, Dem nominee Creigh Deeds seems to have come down from his post-primary bump and it’s settled down into a very close equilibrium with a tiny advantage for GOPer Bob McDonnell. McD leads 44-41, while Deeds was up in their previous poll last month, 47-41. Both men are well-liked; McDonnell’s favorables are 50-27 and Deeds’ are 49-35.

Quinnipiac University (7/8-12, likely voters, 6/3-8 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (40)

Chris Christie (R): 53 (50)

Undecided: 6 (9)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Optimists like to point out that New Jersey seems to hate all its politicians, but hates Republicans a little bit more. This would explain why the Garden State GOP hasn’t won a single statewide race since 1997, and hasn’t won by more than a single percentage point since 1985. So it’s certainly tempting to think that Jon Corzine might sweat this one out like so many of his Democratic predecessors have.

But this race simply feels different. In particular, the economy – and the deep unhappiness it engenders – weighs more heavily than at almost any time in recent or even distant memory. The traditional unemployment rate is almost 9% in Jersey. Broader measures like the U6 are much worse. Painful budget cuts have been made. And Corzine has also stumbled on his own, like with his series of failed plans involving the always-sensitive issue of turnpike tolls. Like it or not – fair or not – the folks in power get blamed when things go to hell. If you’re a guy like Jon Corzine, who didn’t start off with high approvals and goodwill to burn, it puts you in a very precarious spot.

Ordinarily, we don’t like to move races with unindicted incumbents past “Tossup.” But there’s nothing ordinary about 2009, or these poll numbers:

If you want to see what a classic “Jersey Dem sweats one out” race looks like, check out this chart of Bob Menendez vs. Tom Kean, Jr. from 2006 (turn off “poll results” to better see the trendlines):

Sure, Menendez definitely started perspiring a bit  in September, but he never spent months lagging by double digits. He also benefitted from a good economy and a huge Democratic wave – and he wasn’t an incumbent with anemic favorables.

Back in 2009, things have picked up somewhat for Corzine in recent months, but his Republican opponent, Chris Christie, has also steadily improved. And the other internals on this Q-poll are a lot more worrying. Corzine’s job approval is at its lowest ever (33-60), his attacks on Christie for being close to Bush don’t resonate at all with voters (only 10% call it a “fair criticism”), and the state legislature “generic ballot” is a virtual tie at 45D-43R (in a state where Dems otherwise hold wide margins in the lege).

This, of course, is just one poll – but pick apart any survey and you’ll find plenty of bad news. The fact that Corzine leaked an internal allegedly showing him at 38% is perhaps most disturbing of all. Is this supposed to constitute good news? (The fact that no one’s seen the full memo is also telling.)

We’re also pretty troubled by word that Corzine might tap a reality TV star (yes, you read that right) for the newly-created post of Lieutenant Governor. This is beyond bizarre, and is reminiscent of John McCain picking Sarah Palin as his number two. Let’s pray Corzine doesn’t go this route – but it’s not a heartening sign that he’s considering something so gimmicky when he should be picking someone experienced and fit to succeed him if need be.

The one genuinely positive event on the horizon is the rally Obama is doing with Corzine on Thursday. But that’s just a one-time event, and given how parsimoniously the President spends his political captial, I doubt Obama’s going to attach himself to Corzine at the hip and drag him across the finish line in November.

As I say, this isn’t a move we make lightly, but nonetheless we’re changing the rating on NJ-Gov to “Lean Republican.” This doesn’t mean we think Corzine can’t stage a comeback, or that Christie has this one in the bag. It simply means that he has the edge right now, something which seems hard to deny at this point. But if that changes, our rating will, too.