Tag: NV-02

First, some numbers to chew on from 2006:

Jill Derby (D): 104,593

Dean Heller (R): 117,168

Tessa Hafen (D): 98,261

Jon Porter (R): 102,232

Now, some more numbers to chew on. Let’s compare the voter registration numbers from Nevada in November 2006 and August 2008. In the chart below, let’s tally the Democratic and Republican registration advantages in all three of Nevada’s congressional districts from both time periods, with blue indicating a Democratic registration advantage and red indicating a GOP advantage. Here’s what we get:

Statewide, Democrats have turned a voter registration deficit of 4,000 into an advantage of 62,000 in less than two years. The biggest shift is in Clark County, where Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley’s 1st District is getting even bluer, and where the ground is shifting rapidly under GOP Rep. Jon Porter’s feet in the 3rd District. Porter is going to have his work cut out for him against Democrat Dina Titus this fall.

It’s also not hard to see why Jill Derby was tempted to make another run in the 2nd District: the reduction of the GOP’s voter registration advantage is bigger than her losing margin in 2006. However, with the increased turnout of a presidential year, she’s going to have a heck of a challenge persuading the big chunk of independent voters that she’ll need to close the gap.

Overall, these are very encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot this fall.

Research 2000 (8/18-20, likely voters):

Jill Derby (D): 42

Dean Heller (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±5.0%)

That’s a very nice starting position for Jilly Derby, but she’ll have her work cut out for her in order to swing that extra 8% in this R+8.2 district. On the bright side, Democrats have seen a voter registration surge in the district, and she recently received fundraising support from the DCCC and EMILY’s List.

It’ll be tough, but this race certainly merits watching.

Dean Heller, friend of big business, friend of Dick Cheney, friend of Halliburton.

Yep, the company formerly chaired by Dick Cheney, the company getting probably the most bang for the buck out of the Iraq war, the company so infamous that there’s an entire website devoted to its shameful practices, that company, Halliburton Energy Services, has contributed $1,000 to Heller for Congress on August 1. And Heller gladly excepted it.

Why? I refer you to the first sentence of this diary. Honestly, though, without the loans he gave to his campaign (his current debts are $365k) and without the big business PAC money his campaign finances wouldn’t look so good. In fact, out of the $1.2 million Heller has received this cycle, more than $500k came from PACs or other committees. That’s more than 40%. You can view the whole list of PAC money here.

And don’t kid yourself about the individual contributions. Doesn’t mean they’re all ordinary folk. A lot of those are business executives, real estate, development, financial services giving in four figure sums. From Nevadan casino executives alone Dean Heller received at least $75,500 thus far. That’s more than 10% of all his individual contributions.

So, in case you’re wondering why we’re still in Iraq, why we have a big budget deficit, Heller getting contributions from companies like Halliburton is one of the reasons.

Heller’s Democratic challenger Jill Derby may not have Halliburton. But Jill Derby has ordinary supporters like you. How about giving her ten bucks?

Crossposted from My Silver State

With only three and a half month left before election day, Nevada bloggers have joined forces and today announce the creation of the “Nevada Bloggers for Jill Derby and Dina Titus” ActBlue fundraising page.  

Dean Heller and Jon Porter were almost beaten in 2006 in what were the closest races the 2nd and 3rd Nevada Congressional Districts have seen to date. Considering that Democratic voter registration has significantly increased since 2006 and that Nevada will be a battleground state in the presidential contest both Jill Derby and Dina Titus have a big chance of beating the Republican incumbents this fall.

However, both have one disadvantage: they have significantly less cash-on-hand than the incumbents. While they both reported good fundraising numbers in the last quarter it will be hard to make up the time and incumbency advantages of Heller and Porter. Therefore, Jill Derby and Dina Titus need all the help they can get. Whether you can give $5,$20 or $100 – anything helps!

The following blogs have been and will continue to cover one or both of these contests and today we are announcing that we stand together to help elect Jill Derby and Dina Titus: Blue Sage Views, Desert Beacon, Helluva Heller, My Silver State, Nor’Town, Nye – Gateway to Nevada’s Rurals, Reno and Its Discontent, and Vote Gibbons Out.

We support Jill Derby and Dina Titus for Congress! Help us in our effort!

[Cross-posted at Daily Kos, Swing State Project, Reno & Its Discontents]

http://www.jillderby.com

I’m Jill Derby, Democratic Candidate for Congress in Nevada’s Second Congressional District.  Many of you know me from 2006 when I ran for this seat against Republican Dean Heller.  Well, I’m back.  And I’m running to change the way business is done in Washington.

When Heller went to Washington after our very close race, many here in Nevada hoped that he would be an independent, moderate voice for Nevada.  Dean Heller has let them down.  Heller has stood as a rubber stamp for the Bush Administration from his very first day in the House, voting over 92% of the time with the party.  That record, and the continued decline of our great nation has me back in this race.

More below the fold…

The growth of the Netroots community has been remarkable over the last half-decade.  You have renewed and revitalized progressive discourse in America using a new medium, playing a powerful and ever-growing role in the success of Democratic candidates across the country.  I am excited to have the opportunity to meet many of you in person this weekend at Netroots Nation in Austin, where I will be on Friday’s “Future Leaders” panel with Jim Himes (CT-04), Dan Seals (IL-10) and Annette Taddeo (FL-18), and later at the Netroots Candidates Celebration.  But before we get a chance to meet in person, I wanted to tell you a bit more about myself and my race.

I am not a career politician.  I am an activist like many of you, who got my start in politics fighting for the Equal Rights Amendment in the 1970s.  Since then I have stayed active, serving on Nevada’s Board of Regents, and later as Chair of the Nevada Democratic Party.

I have always taken a strong stand against the Iraq War.  I opposed it from Day 1.  When my good friend Darcy Burner called me to about a plan she was putting together to find a comprehensive solution to the Iraq War and the problems it had created, I was thrilled to sign on as one of its first supporters.   The Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq is committed to bringing our troops home from Iraq and repairing the damage done to our democracy by eight years of Republican mismanagement.

I stand together with many members of the Netroots community in supporting our civil rights and condemning the recent passage of the FISA amendments granting retroactive immunity to the telecom industry.  Here in Nevada, we take our civil liberties very seriously.  This abdication of the constitution by the Bush Administration, supported by my right-wing opponent Dean Heller, has let big telecom off the hook.  This was wrong, plain and simple.

I stand together with members of the Netroots in supporting the working and middle classes of America.  Nevada has the highest rate of home foreclosures per capita in the United States.  We have a high rate of bankruptcy as well.  I stand with my friends in organized labor in supporting a living wage, healthcare for all Americans, secure retirement benefits, and the right to collective bargaining.  I am appalled by the assault on middle America, with gas prices rising and bankruptcy protections eroded at the same time that oil companies make record profits and Republicans–including my opponent–refuse to make critical investments in energy independence and renewables.

Since November of 2006, the Republican registration advantage in this district has been cut by a remarkable 40%, from 48,000 to 29,000.  This 19,000 voter Democratic shift is more than 50% greater than Heller’s margin of victory in 2006.

I just outraised my opponent by over nearly 30% this quarter and am quickly gaining ground on him as his far right voting record becomes better known throughout the district.

We have a real race on our hands in this R+8 district and I am thrilled to have a chance to earn the support of the Nevada Netroots and those of you across the nation.  I look forward to meeting many of you this weekend in Austin.  And I look forward to working together in the coming months to set America back on track.  

www.jillderby.com

Mason-Dixon polls the battle for Nevada’s 3rd CD (6/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

Dina Titus (D): 42

Jon Porter (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±6.6%)

If this race is as close as the poll suggests, then Porter is in a lot of trouble. He never fared this badly in the polls against Democrat Tessa Hafen, whom he narrowly beat by a 48-47 margin in the 2006 cycle. Indeed, the closest poll of that race by Mason-Dixon came days before the election and showed Porter leading by 46-39. The fact that Titus is as close as she is only six weeks after launching her candidacy is both a testament to her high profile and Porter’s weaknesses, including his glaringly bad 36-56 job performance rating.

Recent registration drives in the state have produced a 20,000-strong Democratic voter registration advantage in the 3rd district, which used to be more evenly divided. This may prove to be Porter’s toughest year yet.

Over in the 2nd CD, the story is a bit different:

Jill Derby (D): 39

Dean Heller (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±6.6%)

In her rematch bid against freshman incumbent Heller, Jill Derby is facing an uphill climb in this R+8.2 district. Heller’s approval rating, at 52-44, could be stronger but still is in much better shape than Porter’s.

Derby’s candidacy will help spread the GOP thin, but turning Nevada completely blue will be a tough task.

SSP currently rates NV-02 as Likely Republican and NV-03 as Leans Republican.

Cross posted from My Silver State.

Remember 2004? When the incumbent Senate Democratic Leader was beaten when he was running for reelection in South Dakota? The first time the Republican  Senate Leader Bill Frist broke one of those so called DC “gentlemen’s agreeements” of not actively campaigning against the leader of the other party?

You want that to happen again in 2010?

No? Then follow me below the fold to see what you can do NOW to stop the Republicans from beating Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010!

Why help Harry Reid now:

The Republican party in Nevada is as much in dire straits as the national party. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t put up a fight to defeat Harry Reid in 2010. Harry Reid once survived a very close race after against now Sen. John Ensign only after a recount (1998). In 2004 he won by a more than comfortable margin. However, that was before he was elected the leader of Senate Democrats. Because of his new leadership role his approval ratings in Nevada have suffered and Nevada Republicans have no greater goal but to topple Harry Reid in 2010.

Now, this is not about whether you like Harry Reid and his actions as the Senate Majority Leader. I’ve personally been very critical of him on several occasions. No, this is about whether you want the Republicans to once again take out the Democratic Leader in the Senate. And Republicans, in Nevada and nationally, will be itching for a fight in 2010 if they lose the White House and more seats in the Senate and the House. And who will be the most prominent target in 2010? Harry Reid.

Potential opponents:

Republicans already suffered pretty badly in 2006 when they lost four out of the six statewide constitutional offices. The only statewide incumbents right now are Gov. Jim Gibbons who is scandal plagued and currently divorcing his wife who has barrickaded herself in the Governor’s mansion. He’s lucky if he won’t either have to resign before 2010 or be primaried.

The other is Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki who seems to be more likely to succeed Gibbons than Reid.

The other top Republicans in the state are Sen. John Ensign who obviously can’t run against Reid and Congressmen Dean Heller (CD2) and Jon Porter (CD3). In 2006 Dean Heller barely managed to get above 50% in this open seat against Democrat Jill Derby. Porter barely won his reelection campaign in 2006 against Democrat Tessa Hafen. Hafen was a Reid staffer who received major financial backing from Reid. A sign that Reid thought Porter to be his strongest and most likely opponent in a future Senate race.

Once you’re done with the most obvious opponents, you have to search in the State Legislature or the local level to find a possible opponent for Reid. You might find one, whether it would be a strong and credible one is highly questionable as the Democrats are only one seat away from a 2/3 majority in the Assembly and just one seat away from getting the majority in the State Senate.

So, the two most likely opponents for Harry Reid are Congressmen Jon Porter and Dean Heller (in that order).

What you can do now:

In one sentence: help defeat Porter and Heller this fall.

Both are vulnerable. Currently, CQ rates CD 2 as Republican Favored and CD 3 as Leans Republican. However, that’s mostly on the basis of the Republicans current financial advantage. After serving as Nevada Democratic State Party Chair for the past year and preparing the state for the caucus in January, Jill Derby announced another run against Heller in late February. By the end of the first quarter filing deadline she had raised $144,000.

In CD 3 a lot of Democrats were mentioned as possible challengers last year. In the end Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas was the candidate backed by most in the Democratic Party. He was added to the DCCC’d red to blue list in March. However, everyone was shocked when Daskas dropped out this month just two weeks before the filing deadline. Local Democrats, the DCCC and Daskas’ primary opponent Andrew Martin soon rallied around Senate Minority Leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus. However, six months before the election Titus is at a serious fundraising disatvantage.



Why Jill Derby and Dina Titus can win:

So, both of our candidates are way behind in fundraising. Why, then, can they still win?

Jill Derby ran a hotly contested race in 2006 for a seat that Democrats have not seriously contested since Gov. Jim Gibbons first ran in 1996. While everyone pronounced this seat unwinable for any Democrat, Jill Derby ran a strong campaign and won 45% of the vote and kept Heller at 50%. One reason, Gibbons was even a serious contender for Governor and eventually won in 2006 is that Democrats never seriously contested his seat after his first election in 1996.

Two years later, the situation for Jill Derby is much better. She has new DC and national connections due to her time as State party chair during the caucus (which will help with fundraising), the caucus led to an increase in registered Democratic voters and Heller now has to run on his two year Bush rubber stamp record. The race has gained attention from national Democrats as Derby was endorsed by the Blue Dogs in Congress. Yes, I know, none of us are two fond of the Blue Dogs. That said, I’m happy about any help Jill Derby will get and this is after all still a pretty conservative district. When Derby talks about joining the Blue Dogs in Congress, she’s mostly talking about fiscal conservatism. Yet, she’s progressive on other issues, announcing her campaign at a green architecture form, has made health care and supporting SCHIP one of her main campaign themes (Heller voted against SCHIP). Also, her campaign will be managed by the former head of Americans Against the Escalation in Iraq in Nevada. Subsequently, she also endorsed the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq.

As for Dina Titus, she has actually already won in CD 3. In 2006 she won here by two points against Jim Gibbons in her run for Governor. Additionally, the district is trending Democratic as the registration advantage now is at 43% Dem, 37% Rep. Plus, Porter only won by 4,000 votes in 2006.

All Jill Derby and Dina Titus need now is the money to be competitive.

You can do three good deeds today:

You can help two great Democratic women get elected to Congress.

And you can help beat two possible opponents of Harry Reid.

All you need to do is give as much or little as you can and contribute through the My Silver State ActBlue page.

Links:

Jill Derby for Congress

Dina Titus for Congress

Helluva Heller – local blog with more information.

Mcjoan on Jill Derby in 2006.

Jill Derby, who lost to then Secretary of State Dean Heller 50-45 lis back and back with a vengeance.  In fact, those are Derby’s own words.

Derby had been serving as the Chair of the Nevada Democratic Party and scrupulously avoided building her own political career while she shepherded the caucuses in their new, nationally important time slot.

Derby, of course, is the former Chancellor of the University of Nevada and she is running in a district that covers at least 75% of the state’s area but only a third of the population.  

This was one of Benawu’s open seats.  It has a daunting RVI of R+8.2.  It covers a huge and different area from the Vegas centered districts.  Yet Heller has gone from a respected statewide official to a backbencher for a minority party.  He doesn’t add name recognition and is probably more vulnerable than he was two years ago considering the poor poll ratings of Congress in general and Republican congress members in particular.

Derby’s web site, www.jillderby.com, has a huge picture odf a smilling Jill Derby with a desert background superimposed and a February 20 dateline.  It starts, “Today, I am announcing my candidacy for Congress.  I’m Jill Derby and I’m back.”

She’s probably the only candidate who can make this seat competitive.  Well, she has.

Nationally, many pundits and bloggers didn’t take Nevada’s 2nd district too seriously in 2006. It was too safe a Republican district to be even slightly competitive, so the argument went.

Well, we all know that Dean Heller in the end won his election against Democrat Jill Derby. Against expectations though, his result wasn’t very convincing. The man who was elected Secretary of State of Nevada three times, barely won more than 50% of the vote in a district that doesn’t include Democratic Las Vegas. So today, I ventured out in search of Republicans who won their districts in 2006 and did worse than him. Turns out that there weren’t that many.

Only 11 Republicans were elected with a worse result than Heller. Among them: Rep. Sali of Idaho, Rep. Cubin of Wyoming, Rep. Musgrave of Colorado and Rep. Doolittle of California. All these districts were presumed to be safely in Republican hands. There was no way they would become competitive and yet they were.

Again, there is talk of Heller being safe, of other Republican districts more important than Nevada’s 2nd. This is reminder for all of these folks that Heller is among the vulnerable dozen Republicans currently serving in Congress:

  * 50.37% Heller
  * 50.24% Pryce (OH-15)
  * 50.21% Wilson (NM-01)
  * 50.14% Hayes (NC-08)
  * 50.08% Buchanan (FL-13)
  * 50.05% Bachmann (MN-06)
  * 49.95% Sali (ID-01)
  * 49.53% Ferguson (NJ-07)
  * 49.26% Doolittle (CA-04)
  * 48.46% Porter (NV-03)
  * 48.33% Cubin (WY-01)
  * 45.91% Musgrave (CO-04)

Results were taken from NPR.

PS: Please note that I only looked at how many people were willing to vote for the Republican, not how well the opponent did. This is not a diary on close margins. Feel free to comment on that below.

Cross posted from Helluva Heller, where Nevada bloggers have united to take down Heller in 2008.

When talking about trying to win the 2nd congressional district in Nevada, which encompasses almost all of Nevada except for the heavily populated parts of Clark County, you almost always encounter one argument: Democrats cannot win in the rurals.

Now, at first look that might be true, statewide Democratic candidates often lose the rural counties and often by a large margin. One reason for that might be that statewide Democratic candidates most often hail from Clark County and might not campaign too much in the rurals.

However, when you take a closer look you might come away shocked. Why? Because Democrats actually get elected in the rurals on a regular basis.

Just take a look at this list of current office holders who identified themselves as Democrats on the ballot:

Churchill County:

Vicky Tripp, County Recorder
John Serpa, County Public Administrator

Elko County:

Mike Nannini, County Commissioner

Esmeralda County:

Nancy Boland, County Commissioner
R.J. Gillum, County Commissioner
Karen Scott, County Auditor/Recorder

Eureka County:

Michael Rebaleati, County Recorder/Auditor

Lander County:

Gladys Burris, County Clerk

Lincoln County:

Bill Lloyd, County Commissioner
Leslie Boucher, County Recorder/Auditor
Kathy Hiatt, County Treasurer
Tommy Rowe, County Commissioner

Mineral County:

Ed Fowler, County Commissioner
Richard Bryant, County Commissioner
Cheri Emm-Smith, District Attorney

Nye County:

Gary Budahl, County Treasurer
Sandra Musselman, County Assessor

Pershing County:

Roger Mancebo, County Commissioner
Celeste Hamilton, County Assessor
Donna Giles, County Clerk/Treasurer
Darlene Moura, Recorder/Auditor
Dave Ayoob, County Commissioner

Storey County:

Harold Swafford, District Attorney

White Pine County:

Robert Bishop, County Assessor
RaLeene Makley, County Commissioner
Martha Rivera Sindelar, County Recorder

Now, that’s one impressive list. You know how I got this information? By skimming through the Secretary of State’s website and writing down each person who won an election in the last four years and was marked as a Democrat. By doing that I may have missed someone, and there may also be persons included who are registered as Democrats but might just be so called DINOs (Democrats in name only). But I have no way of knowing. Why? Because the Nevada State Democratic Party hasn’t actually advertised the fact that Democrats get routinely (and sometimes without even having an opponent) elected in the rurals. Just take a look at their page listing county commissioners. They list the five Clark County commissioners and Pete Sferrazza from Washoe County. That’s it. No mention of the county commissioners from Elko, Esmeralda, Lincoln, Mineral, Pershing, and White Pine counties.

What conclusions can be drawn from that list? Democrats can win in the rurals, so much is for sure. How do they win? My guess is by meeting the voters and proving that they’re more qualified for the job than their Republican opponent.

Ahead of her election as Chair of the Nevada State Democratic Party, I asked Jill Derby about her experiences on the campaign trail. Here’s what she had to say:

I was able to connect with many people in all 17 of Nevada’s counties during my campaign for Congress. That experience provides me with a network of positive relationships with which to build the unity, focus, and cohesion which will be important to the Party in the year ahead. Democrats often talk about being the party of inclusion and I intend to make that happen by involving everyone – rural and urban, north and south. I also learned that many Nevadans are independent and not locked into strict party vote. I learned that reaching out and framing our message in ways that resonate beyond our traditional Democratic audience can bring support across party lines, and is particularly attractive to independent voters, of which there are many in Nevada.

In order for a Democratic candidate to beat Dean Heller next year, one can only encourage Jill Derby and hope she’ll focus more heavily on the rurals, highlight achievements in counties like Lincoln and Pershing, and set up a party structure in the rural counties.

Cross-posted from Helluva Heller, a group effort by Nevada bloggers to take on freshman Rep. Dean Heller (R, NV-02) and defeat him in 2008.