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AZ-Sen: Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? J.D. Hayworth thinks so!
CT-Sen: Dave Weigel tweeters that Rob Simmons will “make statement on the future of his campaign” at 9am today. What could this mean? A) He’s getting married to Ginny Brown-Waite; B) he’s announcing endorsements from Nikolai Volkoff and the Iron Sheik; or C) he’s bailing out of the race in the face of Linda McMahon’s zillions of dollars and new party endorsement. The Connecticut Mirror says it’s option C. If so, that would pretty much just leave Paulist weirdo Peter Schiff in the mix against McMahon.
IA-Sen: Dem Roxanne Conlin has launched her first TV ad of the campaign, a biographical spot. Of course, no word on the size of the buy. I think Conlin will need to go sharply negative against Grassley if she wants to make a real dent in his poll numbers.
KS-Sen: Todd Tiahrt’s probably wondering what exactly he did wrong on the way to (probably) losing the Republican nomination: “Didn’t I out-teabag him my whole career?” I guess it doesn’t matter. SurveyUSA now has him down 52-29 to fellow Rep. Jerry Moran in the GOP primary. Two months ago he trailed “only” 42-32. The primary here isn’t until Aug. 3rd, but Tiahrt’s consistently crappy polling is going to make it hard for him to make the case that he can turn things around before then.
NV-Sen: Because we like to keep track of such things, we note that the Tea Party Express – the shady, consultant-backed apparatus that appears to be trading on the “Tea Party” name in order to drum up business – has already spent $300K on behalf of Sharron Angle in the GOP primary. If she pulls off an upset against Chicken Lady, the TPE will have a nice notch in its belt – and will probably be able to put the fear of god into a few Republican candidates here and there.
KY-Gov: Freshman Rep. Brett Guthrie says he won’t seek the Kentucky governor’s mansion in 2011, but didn’t rule out an eventual run some point in the future (he’s 46 years old).
OH-Gov: A group backed by the DGA and the American Federation of Teachers called “Building a Stronger Ohio” is going up with a $300K ad buy on behalf of Ted Strickland which is likely to hammer John Kasich some more. (You may recall that Strickland’s first ad out of the box blasted Kasich for his Wall Street ties.) Nathan Gonzales reports that this new group has $1.7 million in funding (so far), so more and bigger buys are probably on the way.
AL-05: Turncoat Parker Griffith just loaned his campaign $75K ahead of the June 1 primary, on top of $180K he loaned himself earlier.
HI-01: In light of Charles Djou’s 40% plurality win, his conservative record, and the fact that we’ll have a normal election in November, we’re moving this race back to Tossup status.
NC-08: Now that their attempt to create a third party in North Carolina has fizzled, SEIU is scaling back their plans. Instead, they are trying to recruit former Larry Kissell staffer and Iraq War vet Wendell Fant to challenge his old boss (who of course voted no on healthcare reform) as an independent.
PA-11: Some Dude Brian Kelly managed to score 17% in the Democratic primary against Paul Kanjorski, despite refusing all financial contributions. Now, he’s gone and endorsed Republican Lou Barletta. Kanjorski was in trouble anyway, but this certainly doesn’t help.
PA-12: Mark Critz’s impressive eight-point win, combined with the fact that he’ll get square off again in November against a guy he already beat soundly (Tim Burns), has us convinced that this race should be Lean D. It’s been a very long time since anyone won a special and then lost the subsequent rematch – Wisconsin Dem Peter Barca was the last to do so, in 1993/94. However, Barca won his special by just 675 votes, while Critz cruised by over 10,000.
VA-05: Saying he would “rather see Tom Perriello for two more years than the wrong conservative there for 20 years,” teabagger Jeffrey Clark says he’ll launch an independent bid if the hated Rob Hurt wins the GOP primary.
WI-07: Dem state Rep. Louis Molepske says he won’t challenge state Sen. Julie Lassa in the primary, more or less clearing the field for her. The picture on the GOP side is less clear, where state Rep. Jerry Petrowski is still considering a bid, even though Ashland DA Sean Duffy has been running for a while (and has some establishment support).