Taking the last non-Rasmussen polls (four as maximum) and calculating the average between the key numbers of the polls we have the next rank:
(Begining from the number of democratic senate seats and the number of democratic governors what need not run for reelection this year, the first number mean the number of democratic senate seats and governors what dems would have winning until every race of the list.)
(When I tell not the number of polls is because they are four or more)
(I bold emphasize the race with a negative poll what include an outsider key value what make down the average).
RANK OF SENATE AND GUBERNATORIAL RACES BY LAST NO-RASMUSSEN POLLS AVERAGE
41 senate seats in the democratic caucus need not run this year.
07 democratic governors need not run this year.And taking L Chafee and C Crist as friendly candidates:
42S +??.??% VT-Sen 0 polls
43S +??.??% MD-Sen 0 polls
44S +??.??% HI-Sen 0 polls
08G +38.50% AR-Gov 2 polls
09G +37.75% NY-Gov
45S +36.67% NY-Sen 3 polls
10G +23.50% NH-Gov
46S +22.75% OR-Sen
47S +21.00% NY-Sen(s)
11G +20.00% RI-Gov 2 polls
48S +19.25% CT-Sen
49S +15.67% WI-Sen 3 polls
12G +10.67% HI-Gov 3 polls
13G +09.00% AZ-Gov
14G +07.67% CT-Gov 3 polls
15G +07.50% MA-Gov
16G +07.00% MD-Gov
17G +06.25% CA-Gov
50S +06.25% WA-Sen
51S +06.00% FL-Sen
18G +05.25% OH-Gov
19G +04.00% NM-Gov 2 polls
52S +04.00% CA-Sen
53S +03.00% OH-Sen
20G +02.00% MN-Gov
21G +02.50% OR-Gov 2 polls
22G +02.00% VT-Gov 1 poll
23G +01.75% CO-Gov
54S +01.50% CO-Sen
55S +01.25% PA-Sen
56S +01.00% MO-Sen
57S +00.75% NV-Sen
24G =??.??% ME-Gov 0 polls25G – 00.50% IL-Gov
**** – 00.75% NJ-Gov
58S – 01.50% IL-Sen
26G – 01.50% GA-Gov
59S – 04.25% KY-Sen
60S – 04.75% NC-Sen
**** – 05.75% MA-Sen
27G – 06.00% TX-Gov
28G – 06.25% WI-Gov
29G – 06.50% FL-Gov
61S – 09.25% NH-Sen
30G – 10.00% SC-Gov 1 polls
31G – 11.00% NV-Gov
62S – 11.00% IN-Sen 2 polls
32G – 11.75% IA-Gov
33G – 12.67% AL-Gov 3 polls
34G – 13.00% PA-Gov
35G – 13.00% SD-Gov 1 poll
63S – 14.25% LA-Sen
**** – 14.25% VA-Gov
64S – 15.00% DE-Sen 2 polls
36G – 15.25% MI-Gov
65S – 15.25% AR-Sen
66S – 16.00% IA-Sen
37G – 16.25% OK-Gov
…
I take as the negative outsider polls, the polls what have a difference of -9.50 or more with the average (higher with the other polls for the race).
This is a rank of outsider values:
(The first number is the difference between the outsider value and the average for the race).
– 12.50% NH-Gov by PPP
– 11.00% PA-Gov by Muhlenberg College
– 10.75% MN-Gov by Survey USA
– 10.00% NM-Gov by Survey USA
– 10.00% IA-Sen by PPP
– 09.75% OR-Sen by Survey USA
– 09.75% WI-Gov by St Norbert College
– 09.50% IL-Gov by PPP
– 09.50% OR-Gov by Survey USA
The two colleges seems local pollsters attacking the democratic prospect in PA and WI. I worry about WI-Gov race because I think should be better than this and no-one is polling the race. Without the outsider poll, the average for WI-Gov race would be – 02.25%.
Survey USA seems begin a campaign for include outsider values for the races with lower number of polls (the poll for WA-Sen was too an outsider value but is not included because they are more recent polls for the race). ME-Gov with 0 polls and VT-Gov with 1 poll are good candidates for the next Survey USA poll in this strategy.
Just Survey USA polls create the alone positive outsider values at this level (+9.50 or more) because the average between the key value of two polls is in the middle of both values and if one is included as outsider, both values get as outsiders. A third poll would show what is the real outsider value.
And PPP has too some unpleasant polls. The dems from NH (the value for NH-Sen is not an outsider but is very bad too), IA and IL (Obama’s home state) are not favored by PPP what gives to they negative outsider key values in the polls. The new PPP poll of IL-Sen and IL-Gov races included after the updates, improves the previous numbers but still makes down the average of both races to negative numbers.
Of course all the races with positive average are races for fight and try win. And someone of the races with negative average can be too for fight but the democratic candidates need emerge. In the poll of the diary are included the 20 first races with negative average in the moment of write the diary (before the updates).
I will update the diary with the results of the new polls while the diary continues in the frontpage of SSP. I include too the reference of the NJ-Gov, MA-Sen and VA-Gov races with the average of the last four polls just before the elections of 2009 and 2010.
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