Tag: Ipsos

Ipsos for Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times (pdf) (8/6-10, registered voters, 7/9-11 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 30 (31)

Bill McCollum (R): 26 (30)

Bud Chiles (I): 12 (12)

Undecided: 29 (24)

Alex Sink (D): 29 (31)

Rick Scott (R): 30 (34)

Bud Chiles (I): 14 (13)

Undecided: 26 (16)

(MoE: ±4%)

The newest Ipsos poll in Florida finds Alex Sink gaining a little ground over her Republican opponents since last month, as they’ve continued to turn each other even more radioactive in their battle. However, unlike Mason-Dixon‘s gubernatorial poll from this week, they find Rick Scott matching up better with Sink than does McCollum… recall that Mason-Dixon showed a competitive Sink/McCollum race, but Sink demolishing Scott as the Medicare fraud story finally seemed to sink in with voters.

GOP primary numbers, with trendlines from 5/14-18:

Rick Scott (R): 42 (22)

Bill McCollum (R): 32 (46)

Undecided: 23 (25)

(MoE: ±5.9%)

There’s also a big difference here between Ipsos and Mason-Dixon, in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Mason-Dixon found McCollum shooting back into the lead 34-30, but here Ipsos gives Scott a solid lead like nothing has happened. (You’ll note the trendlines make it look like Scott is surging, but those go all the way back to May when Scott was just getting started.)

For what it’s worth, though, there are two new Republican polls out in the last few days that suggest that Mason-Dixon is on the right track. Neither one is for the McCollum camp, although they’re both for McCollum allies. A Tarrance poll for the Florida Medical Association (taken 8/10-12) gives McCollum a 44-40 lead. And a McLaughlin & Associates poll for the Chamber of Commerce (taken 8/11-12) gives McCollum a pretty wide lead, at 45-33.

Ipsos Senate numbers, trendlines from 7/9-11:

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (17)

Marco Rubio (R): 29 (28)

Charlie Crist (I): 33 (35)

Undecided: (20)

Jeff Greene (D): 19 (18)

Marco Rubio (R): 30 (29)

Charlie Crist (I): 32 (34)

Undecided: 19 (19)

(MoE: ±4%)

Last month’s Ipsos Senate numbers were pretty favorable to Charlie Crist, some of the best numbers he’d put up since his big switcheroo. There’s a little regression to the mean here this time, although he’s still in the lead in both Kendrick Meek and Jeff Greene matchups. Or is there some actual movement toward Marco Rubio going on? (See the Mason-Dixon poll below.)

Dem primary numbers, with trendlines from 5/14-18:

Jeff Greene (D): 35 (9)

Kendrick Meek (D): 31 (33)

Maurice Ferre (D): 4 (10)

Undecided: 30 (41)

(MoE: ±6.4%)

With the Dem primary fast approaching, Ipsos still sees a huge number of undecideds. They give Jeff Greene, of vomit-coated yacht fame, a small lead over Kendrick Meek. So Greene’s on track to win, right? Well, maybe not. (Again, see the Mason-Dixon numbers below.)

Mason-Dixon (pdf) (8/9-11, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 18 (19)

Marco Rubio (R): 38 (32)

Charlie Crist (I): 33 (38)

Undecided: 11 (11)

Jeff Greene (D): 12 (NA)

Marco Rubio (R): 38 (NA)

Charlie Crist (I): 39 (NA)

Undecided: 11 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

We’ve already posted about the surprising gubernatorial results from Mason-Dixon, but these are also surprising, because they’re the first non-Rasmussen pollster in a while to give an edge to Marco Rubio (at least in a Kendrick Meek matchup). Of all pollsters, they seem to pick up on the biggest disparity in how Meek and Greene perform: and here, it’s Greene who underperforms dramatically (compared with Meek), enough to throw the election to Crist. Crist clearly understands the dynamics and is further hitching his hopes to the Democratic wagon, as seen with his announcement yesterday that he supports Barack Obama’s support for construction of the mosque near Ground Zero.

Dem primary numbers, with trendlines from 8/2-4:

Kendrick Meek (D): 40 (33)

Jeff Greene (D): 26 (29)

Maurice Ferre (D): 5 (5)

Undecided: 28 (31)

(MoE: ±5%)

As I alluded to above, we have a very different result here in the Dem primary from Mason-Dixon, who show Meek starting to run away with it. So, with the Florida primary only a little more than a week away, we have agreement between Ipsos and Mason-Dixon on… absolutely nothing.

Ipsos for Reuters (8/6-10, likely voters, no trend lines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 39

John Kasich (R): 48

Undecided: 13

Lee Fisher (D): 36

Rob Portman (R): 43

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±4.3%)

This poll released on Tuesday has been the poor puppy at the SSP pound that no one wants to take home; the first look at the Ohio races by Ipsos finds the Dems in pretty dire shape. In fact, Ipsos’s numbers are worse than anything that Rasmussen has put up since March (for OH-Gov) or January (for OH-Sen). The problem here for Dems seems to be the enthusiasm gap, with Ipsos reporting that 75% of registered Republicans plan to vote while 52% of registered Dems plan to vote. (You might recall that Ipsos polled Nevada last week, and released two sets of numbers showing huge disparities between RVs and LVs. While they don’t release separate RV head-to-heads here, I can imagine similar numbers disparities here, based on that gap.)

The poll also looked at who to blame for the economic downturn, which has hit Ohio particularly hard, and lo and behold, “Wall Street” and banks draw the most of the blame, with 93% of respondents blaming them. Along those lines, Reuters has a companion article looking deeper at Kasich’s time with Lehman Brothers (including his relationship with Lehman head Dick Fuld), and also how Kasich is still touting his Wall Street experience as a plus, saying “This experience has been fantastic and will make me a much better governor,” (even as Dems bludgeon him with it).

Ipsos for Reuters (7/30-8/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 48

Sharron Angle (R): 44

Other: 2

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.6%)

The first poll of NV-Sen for Ipsos isn’t particularly surprising; most polls lately have averaged out to a lead for Reid in the low- to mid-single-digits. What is very interesting about this poll is that they release separate likely voter and registered voter numbers, and let me just say: holy crap, take a look at the disparity with the RVs! Among RVs (MoE 4%), Harry Reid completely dominates, leading 52-36 (with 2 for other). That points to as clear a quantification of the “enthusiasm gap” between the parties this year as I’ve seen, and certainly should spur more conversation on how Democrats should be looking to activate those currently “unlikely” voters who’d vote Dem if they actually voted.

It’s been a few days since we’ve talked about Nevada, and Sharron Angle has been very busy, saying enough bizarre things to fill a whole article. She started out on Monday with a Fox News interview, where she got a little too candid about her media strategy: she said she wanted “the press to be our friend,” and “ask the questions we want to answer so that they report the news the way we want it to be reported.” Well, that would certainly explain why she was appearing on Fox (whose Carl Cameron had to titter nervously and call her “naive” in the face of all that ill-advised honesty).

Then yesterday it came out that Angle, who’d previously referred to running for office as a “calling from God,” had gone way beyond that in a previously-unnoticed radio interview with a Christian news service from a few months ago. She attacked entitlement programs as wanting to “make government our God,” and referred to “dependency” on the government as “idolatry” and a violation of the First Commandment.

From his perch on the other side of the country, Mitch McConnell can clearly see the trainwreck unfolding, and he made it clear that there won’t be a repeat of 2004, when Bill Frist campaigned against Tom Daschle on his turf: McConnell confirmed he won’t campaign in person in Nevada this year. Nor can Angle count on help from Danny Tarkanian, whom she dispatched in the primary: Lois Tarkanian (Danny’s mom, and wife to basketball legend Jerry) announced she’s joining Harry Reid’s campaign, in order to “call out Sharron Angle’s extreme and dangerous positions.” At least Angle is still mixing it up on the airwaves, with her newest TV spot a relatively normal and coherent one, although it does make the leap of trying to blame the entire housing bubble collapse on Reid.

Rory Reid (D): 39

Brian Sandoval (R):  50

Other: 1

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Ipsos isn’t so kind to the younger Reid, finding him trailing Brian Sandoval by 11 in the open gubernatorial race. The registered voter numbers, as you might expect, show a much closer race, giving Sandoval a lead of only 43-42.

• Election results: Last night’s Georgia primary election went pretty much as expected. The main surprise was the collapse of John Oxendine in the GOP gubernatorial primary, who had the most money and led most polls, but his collapse was plainly foreseeable via polls over the last few weeks. He finished fourth, behind Karen Handel and Nathan Deal (who’ll advance to the runoff, where the Palin-backed Handel will attack Deal for being corrupt and the Gingrich-backed Deal will attack Handel for being a RINO), and Eric Johnson. Ex-Gov. Roy Barnes locked down the Democratic nomination without a runoff. Labor Comm. Michael Thurmond easily advanced to face GOP incumbent Johnny Isakson in the Senate race.

In the House races, Dems in two of the three potentially competitive races in Georgia know who their opponents will be: Mike Keown in GA-02 and Austin Scott in GA-08 won without runoffs. John Barrow — who beat back a challenge from the left from Regina Thomas in GA-12 (with a final score of 58-42, as Thomas’s Savannah stronghold reported late) — will need to wait for a runoff between Ray McKinney and Carl Smith. Hank Johnson in GA-04 escaped his three-way primary against Vernon Jones and Connie Stokes without a runoff, too. Finally, two dark-red seats will feature GOP runoffs: GA-09’s newly-elected Rep. Tom Graves will face off yet again against Lee Hawkins, who lost the special election, while the GA-07 race features a runoff between Rob Woodall and Jody Hice.

• AR-Sen, AR-Gov: That internal poll from Blanche Lincoln didn’t seem to do anything to stem the gusher of bad polls. One additional poll came out yesterday, from Ipsos on behalf of Reuters. It finds John Boozman leading Lincoln 54-35. On the plus side, it also looks at the Governor’s race and finds that the Zata|3 poll finding only a 9-point lead for incumbent Dem Mike Beebe may have been a bit pessimistic. They find Beebe leading Republican challenger Jim Keet 57-35, more consistent with other polling.

• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth is out with a new introductory TV ad in the Indiana Senate race. It focuses on his blue collar roots and his experience as Sheriff; there’s nary a mention of his time in Congress.

• LA-Sen: It turns out David Vitter may actually be a better family-values role model than his newly minted GOP primary opponent. Faulkner character State Rep. Noble Ellington says that Chet Traylor was “significantly involved” in his divorce from his ex-wife Peggy McDowell, who then married Traylor. Traylor is currently romantically involved with the estranged wife of one of his stepsons via McDowell. The two stepsons have also filed a lawsuit against Traylor, accusing him of hiding information about his financial assets, as part of their probate case concerning McDowell’s recent death without a will. (If someone wants to call me classist in the comments, please feel free, but I can’t help but notice that Traylor’s name is a homonym for a certain type of dwelling whose residents are stereotypically and often unfairly associated with such behavior.)

• WV-Sen, WV-Gov: As expected (at least as expected since late last night), Shelly Moore Capito announced this morning that she won’t run in the Senate special election in November, despite the nice Capito Carveout specifically designed by the legislature to facilitate her doing so. This leaves self-funding businessman John Raese the likely candidate. (In fact, he’d sounded likely to run in the primary with or without Capito, which may have been a major deterrent for Capito. She cited not wanting to run for two things at once, though, and the potential legal challenges to her doing so.) The primary is Aug. 28, so someone will need to fill the gap soon. West Virigina political analyst Hoppy Kercheval seemed to be the first to correctly diagnose the situation earlier yesterday, pointing out her risk-averse past.

There was one surprise, today, though: Joe Manchin drew a primary opponent, theoretically from the left. He was recently in the news for his staunch opposition to Mike Oliverio in WV-01; it’s former SoS and former Rep. Ken Hechler. Hechler, by the way, is 95 years old, older even than Robert Byrd was, so, well, take that for what it’s worth. Most of the speculation today instead seems to involve what happens with the Governorship. Succession laws aren’t very clear (and there’s no Lt. Gov.), but apparently State Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin will be acting Governor in the event of a Manchin move to the Senate. The bigger question is when the election to fill that job would occur: in a 2011 special election, or in 2012 when Manchin’s term would end anyway? Any discussion of GOP candidates for that begins and ends with Capito, but the Dem list is endless, ranging from temp Sen. Carte Goodwin to SoS Natalie Tennant, but almost certain to include state Treasurer John Perdue and state Sens. Jeff Kessler and Brooks McCabe.

• AL-Gov: Following the lead of Artur Davis on the Democratic side, Bradley Byrne finally got around to endorsing Robert Bentley, sticking his knife in his back a few more times along the way for good measure. His parting shot was that Bentley still needs to answer questions about his relationship with the teachers’ union, the Alabama Education Association.

• CO-Gov: OK, so it’s looking like if Scott McInnis does get kicked to the curb, no one is going to rally behind Dan Maes. His vaunted financial small-business acumen turned out to be a lot of inflated boasting, as newly-released tax returns reveal that his credit reporting business turns out to be a small operation and one that paid him earnings that put his family below the poverty line in 2005 and 2008. When asked how he made ends meet, he responded, “there are other ways to pay yourself than salary,” without further elaboration. Well, that’s true… are those ways legal, though?

• HI-Gov: After padding things out as long as he could, Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann finally resigned his day job today and launched his gubernatorial campaign in earnest. Hawaii has a “resign to run” law, so Hannemann wasn’t officially running until now, despite having been transparently campaigning for many months in the Dem primary against Neil Abercrombie.

• MA-Gov: Massachusetts Citizens for Life endorsed ex-Dem indie candidate Tim Cahill, rather than Republican Charlie Baker. Baker, from the moderate blue-blood side of the party, is pro-choice.

• NV-Gov (pdf): PPP’s Tom Jensen finds it ironic that somehow the Nevada GOP managed to pick the strongest possible Republican for the gubernatorial race and the weakest possible one for the Senate race. The telegenic and inoffensive Brian Sandoval is somehow managing to avoid having his GOP predecessor Jim Gibbons’ unpopularity (25/63) rub off on him (Sandoval is at 42/31). Sandoval leads Rory Reid (who’s at 34/48) by 52-38 in the general election.

• RI-Gov: Bill Clinton will be appearing in Rhode Island on behalf of Democratic candidate Frank Caprio, last man standing in the Dem primary, on July 29. Caprio backed Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary.

• WI-Gov: Fundraising numbers in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race are out. Democrat Tom Barrett raised $2.39 million in the period of January through June, while GOPers Scott Walker and Mark Neumann raised $2.59 million and $1.96 million respectively (although some of Neumann’s money seems to be out of his own pocket). In terms of CoH, it’s Barrett (with no primary opposition) with $2.89 million, Walker with $2.57 million, and Neumann with $1.05 million.

• IA-02: Marianette Miller-Meeks, the ophthalmologist who lost severely to David Loebsack in 2008, is back for a rematch, and seems to be in better shape this time (better, even, than Raul Labrador), if her own internal is to be believed. Her poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research gives Loebsack a 46-41 lead.

• NJ-03: The Courier-Post wonders aloud “who the heck is Peter DeStefano?” That’s because no one really seems to know. He’s the independent Tea Party candidate in the 3rd, who hasn’t done anything to promote himself and whose main claim to fame was polling in the double-digits in John Adler’s recent internal poll where he was dominating Jon Runyan. This led, naturally, to GOP claims that DeStefano was some sort of plant from the Adler camp. DeStefano denies that, but isn’t helping matters with his pattern of ducking publicity, not just among the teabagging rank and file but even with the Courier-Post too.

• PA-11: Naturally, it’s never a sign of strength for an incumbent to go negative on his challenger this early… but it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Paul Kanjorski is in a heap of trouble in his rematch against Lou Barletta. But Kanjorski may feel he’s not only better served by localizing, not nationalizing his race, but also that he has a target-rich environment for hits on Barletta, given Barletta’s tenure as mayor of city of Hazleton, which has the highest unemployment in the state and whose local government is in danger of going into receivership.

• TX-06: I suppose this is an example of karma at work. Rep. Joe Barton’s campaign fund took a loss of $154K over the last three months because of hits to its investments… perhaps most significantly, because of losses at BP.

• RNC: It seems like Michael Steele can say all the dumb things he wants and keep his job (fo shizzle), but could financial mismanagement be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? The RNC has had to report new debts that were kept off the books by staffers loyal to Steele, and treasurer Randy Pullen (not a Steele ally) is going public alleging that the debts go much deeper than what was reported to the FEC, claiming that more than another $7 million in debt is out there. The dispute is likely to dominate matters at the RNC’s annual meeting in two weeks. This also leads to speculation that American Crossroads, the Karl Rove 527 operation that finally seemed to kick into high gear last month, will be the de facto main source for independent expenditures this year while the RNC sputters.

• House: Well, it looks like we’re stuck with 435 for the foreseeable future. A federal district court ruled against the plaintiffs in a lawsuit that claimed that only 435 seats was unconstitutional under 14th Amendment grounds, because of malapportionment between different states (i.e. Montana and Wyoming each getting one Rep., despite their population differences).

• Rasmussen:

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 41%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%

• MN-Gov: Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 35%

• MN-Gov: Matt Entenza (D) 37%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43%, John Kasich (R) 48%

Ipsos for Reuters (7/9-11, registered voters, 5/14-18 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (15)

Marco Rubio (R): 28 (27)

Charlie Crist (I): 35 (30)

Undecided: 20 (23)

Jeff Greene (D): 18 (NA)

Marco Rubio (R): 29 (NA)

Charlie Crist (I): 34 (NA)

Undecided: 19 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

It seems like Charlie Crist successfully threaded the needle with his abandonment of the GOP primary and his move to an independent candidacy; Ipsos finds that he’s leading Marco Rubio and in fact gaining a little ground since their last poll in May. (Worth noting: no pollster other than Rasmussen has given a lead to Rubio since Crist pulled the trigger on his switch.) Democrats Jeff Greene and Kendrick Meek perform at about the same level of futility; either way, it looks like Crist is successfully vacuuming up a big share of center-left votes.

Alex Sink (D): 31 (32)

Bill McCollum (R): 30 (34)

Bud Chiles (I): 12 (NA)

Undecided: 27 (26)

Alex Sink (D): 31 (NA)

Rick Scott (R): 34 (NA)

Bud Chiles (I): 12 (NA)

Undecided: 23 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

It’s a dramatically different gubernatorial race since the last time Ipsos polled, with Rick Scott having appeared on the scene and spent one-time frontrunner Bill McCollum into near obscurity, and with independent Bud Chiles having launched an inexplicable centrist bid. Here’s an indication of how far McCollum has fallen: now he’s actually trailing Democrat Alex Sink. (The movement is all within the margin of error, though, and Rick Scott has a small lead over Sink instead, probably by virtue of his saturation advertising — although his latest round of advertising, allegedly about his pro-life credentials, may be backfiring, given that the St. Petersburg Times is now calling him “deceitful” and “heartless.”) Interestingly, since the entry of Chiles, this is the second poll to show that Chiles hardly budges the needle at all (rather than taking all his votes out of Sink’s column, as many had feared); he seems to draw evenly from both sides, probably finding most of his support among conservative Dixiecrats.

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There’s no shortage of pollsters looking at California, and now Canadian firm Ipsos (on behalf of Reuters) piles on. They find, like most pollsters, single-digits leads for the Democrats in both major races: Jerry Brown leads Meg Whitman 45-39 in the gubernatorial racer, while Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina 45-41. They also find the proposed ballot initiative legalizing marijuana failing but by a close margin, 48-50.

• CO-Sen: The endorsement that seemed to blow everyone away yesterday was Bill Clinton’s unexpected backing of Andrew Romanoff, who’s mounting a primary challenge to appointed incumbent Michael Bennet in the Senate primary. It may not be that surprising, though, given Clinton’s willingness to go to bat for lost causes who backed Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2008, which Romanoff did. It sounds like Clinton’s intervention will be limited to fundraising e-mails, though, rather than stumping with Romanoff.

• FL-Sen: The criminal case against former state GOP party chair Jim Greer is interesting enough on its own. But it could get even more interesting if Charlie Crist gets called to testify as a witness, which could happen, as his name is on a list of potential witnesses that’s being circulated.

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk, having offered some weak excuses (“I wasn’t thinking”) at his public appearance yesterday to apologize for his resume embellishments, tried to get back on the offensive against Alexi Giannoulias, rolling out two ads. That includes one that tries to get back to the whole “mob banker” meme. Giannoulias, however, isn’t letting the resume flummery issue die; he rolled out his own attack ad today keeping Kirk’s misrememberments front and center.

• KY-Sen: Charming: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who narrowly lost the Democratic primary to AG Jack Conway, isn’t going to endorse anyone in the Senate race. Also, he said he isn’t planning to run for Governor next year. (Steve Beshear is running for re-election, but dropped Mongiardo from the ticket in favor of Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson, perhaps assuming that Mongo would already be Senator by 2011.)

• NC-Sen (pdf): SurveyUSA (6/23-24, likely voters):

Elaine Marshall (D): 40

Richard Burr (R-inc): 50

Mike Beitler (L): 6

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4%)

We haven’t been intentionally ignoring this poll from last weekend, just kept dropping the ball on getting it onto the front page. At any rate, this is one of those weird instances where Rasmussen sees a better race for the Dems than does SurveyUSA, although that may have to do with Rasmussen’s odd tendency to see huge post-primary bounces.

• NV-Sen: Last night’s title heavyweight bout was between Sharron Angle and Jon Ralston on Ralston’s public affairs TV show. Angle tried to emphasize her softer side, walking back earlier vague threats about armed insurrection, but still voiced support for Social Security phaseout and, maybe even more fatal for Nevada, support for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site.

• WV-Sen: Don’t get too comfortable in assuming that the West Virginia election to replace Robert Byrd won’t be held until 2012. There are vague rumblings that, despite the SoS’s decision, there might be a legislative special session this year to move the election date to November 2010. Bear in mind, though, that Dems thoroughly control the legislature so they’d be doing it only if they thought there was an advantage to doing it now instead of ’12. As Aaron Blake points out, Joe Manchin is not only the heir apparent to the Senate seat but also the Governor, who has the power to move the special session agenda, so the whole thing is really up to him. (Manchin might figure his heavy popularity is more of an advantage in a shortened election season, instead of a multi-year ramp-up to 2012.) At any rate, Manchin seems content to take his time, wanting to wait until after Byrd’s funeral next week to make any moves.

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton is flying in the face of conventional wisdom (conventional wisdom that ignores the success of recent pro-tax ballot measures in Oregon and freakin’ Arizona) by making tax increases for the wealthy a cornerstone of his gubernatorial campaign. Dayton also just landed endorsements from 2006 gubernatorial candidates Mike Hatch, and ex-Rep. Bill Luther.

• ID-01: Raul Labrador, the gift that just keeps on giving. Labrador, who just had to walk back criticisms of John Boehner, is now facing reports that he recently tore into John McCain at a pre-primary appearance and voiced his support for J.D. Hayworth. On a related note, the NRCC just promoted 16 more Young Guns to the top tier of their fundraising pyramid, but despite having won the primary here, Labrador‘s name is still nowhere to be seen on the list.

• KS-04: Here’s some trouble for Wink Hartman, the businessman competing with Mike Pompeo for the GOP nomination in this Todd Tiahrt-held open seat. Pompeo’s camp is making hay out of reports that Hartman, whom they’ve accused of carpetbagging in from Florida, is still taking a valuable homestead exemption on his expensive house in Florida, which would require that to be his primary residence.

• LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond seems to have a big advantage in his quest to win the Democratic nomination in the 2nd; he’s released an internal poll taken by Zata|3 (which you might remember polling the Arkansas primaries on behalf of Arkansas Business Journal), giving him a 53-13 lead over fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta. No general election numbers for the battle against Republican Rep. Joe Cao were released.

• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello is out with what might get my vote for the best candidate TV ad of the cycle so far. (Well, the best ad not featuring Dale Peterson, I suppose.) It’s attention-grabbing and light-hearted enough to break through the clutter, while still staying on-message on the issue of jobs.

• WA-02: Talk about an utter polling fail. John Koster, the Republican challenger to Rep. Rick Larsen, is touting a poll with a lead over Larsen but isn’t giving the name of the pollster or even the specific numbers (saying he’s “in the neighborhood of 53 to 47 percent” – wow… no undecideds?). Larsen’s camp is saying the poll is crap, and they have a little more than the usual platitudes to back that up: Larsen was actually one of the persons polled, and he helpfully jotted down all 12 questions the poll asked. One of them identified Larsen as… a Republican.

• DCCC: Here’s some good news; now that they’re down to the final day of the quarter, the DCCC is actively twisting some arms to get recalcitrant House Dems to cough up their DCCC dues. So far, through the end of last month, House Dems have given $19.5 million over the cycle to the DCCC… but deadbeats still abound.