Tag: David Vitter

• PA-Sen: Democratic internal pollsters Garin-Hart-Yang, at the behest of the DSCC, took a look at the possible Pennsylvania Senate primary between Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak. There’s no information about the dates or the MoE, but it shows Specter beating Sestak 56-16 (with 16% undecided), not much different from R2K‘s 56-11 a few weeks ago. This falls against a backdrop of coalescing conventional wisdom that Specter has, after a rocky first week, settled down into reliable Dem-ness (although Campaign Diairies offers an effective rebuttal of that idea).

• The Corrections: Two things have already changed since yesterday’s digest: Suzanne Haik Terrell, suddenly rumored to be ready to primary David Vitter, backed down and endorsed Vitter. And in California, Dianne Feinstein walked back comments about running for Governor, saying it’s “very unlikely” and that she’s tired of being asked about it.

• Senate: PPP put together a handy scorecard of all the approval ratings for Senators they’ve polled so far this year. Amy Klobuchar is tops, at 62/25, followed by Tom Coburn and Kay Bailey Hutchison. The bottom 3? Jim Bunning, Mel Martinez, and Roland Burris (at 17/62). The only other Dems in net-negative territory are the Colorado 2, Mark Udall and Michael Bennet (and that’s from that widely-poo-pooed Colorado sample).

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek just got two endorsements as he and state Sen. Dan Gelber battle for supremacy in their shared south Florida stomping grounds: Broward County Mayor Stacey Ritter and West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel. (Of course, Gelber may shortly be in the AG’s race instead, so this all may be moot.)

• FL-16: Speaking of the Florida AG’s race, the DCCC has a top contender in mind for the 16th: state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who instead seems likely to square off with Gelber, and 2006 gov candidate Rod Smith, in the AG’s race). Aronberg’s seat is up in 2012, and wouldn’t have to give up his Senate seat to go for FL-16, although state law would require him to give it up to run for statewide office. The DCCC is talking to St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft as a backup plan.

• MS-01: Nobody’s exactly sure what “national pundits” the rumors came from, but Rep. Travis Childers quickly quashed suggestions in a recent interview that he might jump to the GOP (and the deep minority) to have an easier go in the 2010 election. (What is this, the 90s?) “Absolutely not,” he said. “I’m a Southern Democrat – I vote what’s best for Mississippi.”

• LA-Sen: David Vitter may get a serious primary challenger after all (Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins and ex-Rep. John Cooksey have declined, and SoS Jay Dardenne has been laying low). It’s someone we haven’t seen in a while, though: former state Elections commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell, who let her interest be known last week. Terrell’s last appearance in the spotlight was the 2002 Senate race, where she lost narrowly to Mary Landrieu. Terrell is the only Republican woman to have ever held office in Louisiana.

• NY-Sen-B: Like a giant game of Whack-a-mole, Kirsten Gillibrand jammed a couple potential primary challengers back into their holes last week, but now a new one popped up: Rep. Jose Serrano. The Bronx-based Serrano might be able to make a lot of hay out of the immigration issue, but he may not have the cash to make a race of it (although as an Appropriations cardinal, he’s well-connected). Meanwhile, Gillibrand nailed down endorsements from three other Reps. — John Hall, Mike Arcuri, and Scott Murphy — as well as Nassau County Dem party chair Jay Jacobs (important because he has a lot of sway over Rep. Carolyn McCarthy).

• PA-Sen: Roll Call tried to pin down the Democratic House members from Pennsylvania on whether or not they’d endorse Arlen Specter in a potential Democratic primary with Rep. Joe Sestak. Interestingly, PA’s most liberal Dem, Chaka Fattah, was probably the most enthusiastic and unconditional endorser of Specter, while its most conservative Dem, Jason Altmire, was most reluctant to offer an endorsement one way or the other, although more out of admiration for Sestak than on ideological grounds. Tim Holden also endorsed Specter and Bob Brady came as close as possible to it, while Patrick Murphy took a “wait and see” attitude and the others simply punted the question.

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren (having recently shot himself in the foot by calling Charles Schumer “that Jew”) is now vacillating and may not run in the GOP Senate primary after all, despite having announced his candidacy.

• IL-Sen: Here’s some confirmation on what we speculated last week: Rep. Mark Kirk isn’t lost in space; he’s just deferring any decisions on the Senate race because he’s waiting to see what AG Lisa Madigan does. He reportedly won’t run for Senate if Madigan does.

• FL-Gov: Ag Commissioner Charles Bronson will announce today that he won’t run for the open governor’s seat, leaving an unimpeded path to the GOP nomination for AG Bill McCollum. Bronson is term-limited out of his job in 2010 and looking to move up, but couldn’t buck the pressure from state chair Jim Greer — I mean, the guy doesn’t have a Death Wish.

• CO-Gov: Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis officially filed yesterday to enter the Colorado governor’s race, amidst sniping that he started soliciting funds before filing his campaign paperwork. State Senate minority leader Josh Penry also launched into an oblique attack on McInnis, suggesting he might be interested in a primary battle.

• CA-Gov: Dianne Feinstein, occasionally rumored to be interested in what has to be the least desirable job in America (California governor), has said that she “might” run for governor next year, depending on her assessment of the other candidates’ plans for dealing with California’s seemingly perpetual budget crisis. Polls that have included Feinstein have shown her dominating the race if she got in.

• IL-13: 71-year-old Rep. Judy Biggert just confirmed that she’ll be running for re-election in 2010, despite a return engagement with Scott Harper, who held her to 54%, and the district’s shift to only R+1. (Of course, her inclusion in the first round of 10 in the NRCC’s Patriots program Tuesday showed her hand already.)

• AL-02: Republicans have at least one candidate lined up to go against Rep. Bobby Bright as he seeks his first re-election in this R+16 district: 32-year-old Montgomery city councilor and attorney Martha Roby. GOP State Rep. Jay Love, who narrowly lost to Bright last time, may also try again.

• MI-13: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, who narrowly won a 3-way primary in 2008, may have to face off against both of the same challengers again in 2010: state Sen. Martha Scott and former state Rep. Mary Waters. Former interim mayor Ken Cockrel also is mentioned as interested. Kilpatrick may be less vulnerable in 2010, though, as the brouhaha surrounding her son (former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick) recedes in the distance.

• Maps: Here’s another interesting map for the geography nerds out there. It’s a map of which party controls all the state House seats throughout the South. (It’s a lot bluer than you might initially think.)

• KY-Sen: It wouldn’t occur to me to assign great meaning to Jim Bunning’s decision to skip attending the Kentucky Derby this year, but apparently that’s a big deal, as there’s lots of behind-the-scenes elbows-rubbing with potential donors. It’s one more clue in the retirement puzzle, in view of GOP SoS Trey Grayson’s formation of an exploratory committee, supposedly with Bunning’s blessing, and the likelihood that Grayson’s emergence will further dry up Bunning’s fundraising.

• FL-Sen: With Gov. Charlie Crist poised to make a decision on whether or not to run for Senate upon the end of the Florida legislative session Friday, former state House speaker Marco Rubio has kept turning up the heat on him, suggesting that he’s running in the primary with or without Crist. Regarding Crist’s support for the stimulus package, said Rubio: “If you agree with Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe on some of these issues, you might as well become a Democrat.”

• LA-Sen: David Vitter posts some mediocre numbers in a new poll from Southern Media & Opinion Research. He gets an approval rating of 58%, but only 30% say they would definitely vote to re-elect him (with 28% saying definitely not and 35% open to an alternative). Most ominously, only 35% of white voters said they would definitely vote to re-elect. In related news, potential primary challenger Stormy Daniels is embarking on a “listening tour” of Louisiana. I got nothing here; make up your own lascivious pun.

• OH-17: Turns out that Gov. Ted Strickland talked the 36-year-old Rep. Tim Ryan out of jumping out of a promising House career and into the #2 slot on his ticket. (Strickland said that when he does announce his Lt. Gov., it’ll be a “huge surprise.”)

• Redistricting: Dave’s Redistricting blog is about to release a new feature that should keep SSP’s many redistricting fans awake into the wee hours: a free and allegedly easy-to-use Flash-based online redistricting tool. It sounds like it’s only based on Census population data and not precinct-level voting data, but even that would be a huge help for tinkerers like us. Keep your eyes peeled for the tool’s launch some time this week.

Are Dems finally lining up a challenger to take on GOP Sen. David Vitter? Roll Call reports that state Sen. Eric LaFleur may be close to making a decision:

LaFleur said this week that he’s been in touch with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee about the race and “we are going in that direction.”

However, LaFleur said he doesn’t expect to make a final decision on a Senate bid until after the state legislative session ends.

This is the first time I’ve ever heard LaFleur’s name tossed around for this race — and if the DSCC is asking him out to this dance, it might mean that some of the bigger names (Chris John, Charlie Melancon, Don Cazayoux, and self-funder Jim Bernhard) are taking a pass. Whatever the case, “we are moving in that direction” is about the most exuberant statement we’ve heard from a prospective Democrat about this race so far.

Meanwhile, Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is neither shitting nor getting off the pot:

While the names of other would-be primary challengers to Sen. David Vitter (R) have come and gone, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) said this week that he remains on the fence about a 2010 Senate bid.

“I’m continuing to get a lot of encouragement from a lot of people,” Dardenne said Tuesday. “I have not decided to run, nor have I ruled out the possibility that I may run.”

Maybe this jerkweed just likes the free press.

Despite being caught kvetching like a major league douchebag at the Dulles airport a few days ago, it looks like the week is ending on a positive note for Diaper Dave Vitter, as yet another potential primary challenger has removed his name from consideration:

Family Research Council president Tony Perkins has decided not to challenge [Vitter] in next year’s Republican primary.

“I am grateful for those who’ve encouraged me to consider returning to elected office, but this is not the right time,” wrote Perkins in a letter to state party chairman Roger Villere. “Along those lines, I would like members of the State Central Committee to know that I support Senator David Vitter’s bid for reelection in 2010.”

With Perkins out, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne may be our last hope for a major R-on-R battle here… and somehow I suspect that the odds of such a cage match occurring are getting slimmer.

Meanwhile, for Team Blue, Cillizza brings up a new potential candidate whose name has escaped my notice until now: Baton Rouge-area state Sen. Rob Marionneaux.

Roll Call:

According to an HOH tipster who witnessed the scene, the Louisiana Republican arrived Thursday evening at his United Airlines gate 20 minutes before the plane was scheduled to depart, only to find the gate had already been closed. Undeterred, Vitter opened the door, setting off a security alarm and prompting an airline worker to warn him that entering the gate was forbidden.

Vitter, our spy said, gave the airline worker an earful, employing the timeworn “do-you-know-who-I-am” tirade that apparently grew quite heated.

That led to some back and forth, and the worker announced to the irritable Vitter that he was going to summon security.

Vitter, according to the witness, remained defiant, yelling that the employee could call the police if he wanted to and their supervisors, who, presumably, might be more impressed with his Senator’s pin.

But after talking a huffy big game, Vitter apparently thought better of pushing the confrontation any further. When the gate attendant left to find a security guard, Vitter turned tail and simply fled the scene.

Best snark in the comments wins a prize.

(Hat-tip: Taegan)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/2-4, registered voters):

Charlie Melancon (D): 41

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Don Cazayoux (D): 39

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Charlie Melancon (D): 40

Jay Dardenne (R): 49

Don Cazayoux (D): 38

Jay Dardenne (R): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

David Vitter (R-inc): 43

Jay Dardenne (R): 32

Stormy Daniels (R): 1

(MoE: ±5%)

David Vitter still seems to have an edge in his quest for re-election to his Louisiana senate seat, but it looks like he could have a rocky time of it in both the primary and the general. Vitter is polling below the 50% mark in each, and he has a lukewarm 49/42 favorable/unfavorable.

Vitter performs about the same against both Democrats polled (Rep. Charlie Melancon and ex-Rep. Don Cazayoux, neither of whom seem to be moving in the direction of running). Neither Melancon nor Cazayoux seems well-known outside their respective districts, so this is basically a test of “Generic D.” (Names that get talked up more as the eventual candidate include ex-Rep. Chris John, who lost to Vitter in 2004, and former Louisiana Democratic Party head Jim Bernhard, not that either of them are well-known, either.)

On the other hand, notice that Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne perfoms just as well as David Vitter, if slightly better. It may be that we’re seeing “Generic R” on the GOP side as well, and partisan lines are pretty hard-set (at least at this point, before people know much about the individual candidates). Dardenne is being talked up for the race by others, but publicly has been noncommital so far; out of all the favorables/unfavorables in this poll, Dardenne fares the best of anybody at 48/22.

Despite Dardenne’s favorables, Vitter beats Dardenne in the primary — not surprising, given how conservative the Louisiana GOP base is, and that Dardenne is something of a moderate figure while Vitter has been charging to the right. However, there’s a wild card here that wasn’t polled: Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins, who has made his interest in the race known. It would be interesting to see Perkins polled in this race, both whether the polarizing religious right talking head would fare worse than Vitter in the general, and his effect on the primary. It’s possible that in a 3-way primary, with Vitter and Perkins splitting the hard-right vote, Dardenne could sneak through with the support of what passes for moderates in Louisiana. (As you can see, the Stormy Daniels candidacy hasn’t aroused much interest yet, although I’m sure she won’t take that lying down.)

David Vitter continues to dodge bullets:

Late last week, former Rep. John Cooksey (R-La.) was reportedly interested in taking on Vitter in the primary. But the former 5th district Congressman announced Monday that he is not running, in a statement that included some nuance.

“While I do not always agree with David Vitter’s position on social issues, I believe David Vitter does a good job representing the people of Louisiana on fiscal matters,” Cooksey said in a statement to the Concordia Sentinel. “If David Vitter emerges as the Republican nominee in the 2010 Senate race in Louisiana, I will vote for him.”

I think we all know which “social issue” in particular Cooksey is referring to. In more good news for Vitter, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon says that he’s probably not going to run:

Despite the urging of state and national Democrats, local Congressman Charlie Melancon says that, at least for now, he has decided against running for the U.S. Senate in 2010. […]

“Never say never,” Melancon told The Courier Thursday, “but I’m not contemplating a run at this time.”

Democrats still have a number of other potential candidates on the table, including ex-Rep. Chris John and Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard. I remain convinced that Republicans have a more-than-good shot at retaining this seat, but we’ll have some raw data to look at soon: Daily Kos will release primary and general election polling numbers from Louisiana later this week.

Bayou Buzz:

In a breaking story, Bayoubuzz.com and The Louisiana Weekly have learned that a Campaign has begun to draft former Fifth District Congressman Dr. John Cooksey to run in the GOP primary against David Vitter in 2010.

Moreover, sources close to the Monroe Ophthalmologist say that the retired member of Congress is very interested.  So interested, in fact, that he is willing to commit a sizable portion of his personal savings to a campaign against the incumbent Republican Senator.  

“John is willing to put up $200,000 of his own money to take on Vitter.  He only wants to know that there is public support for a run,” said a senior advisor to the former Congressman-who asked not to be named.

200 G’s is not nothin’, but Cooksey will need to amass considerably more financial support in order to have a shot against Vitter in a primary. (Perhaps the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology may be willing to lend an assist to one of their own here.) Cooksey, a former Representative who served in the House for three terms, was last seen flaming out spectacularly in Louisiana’s 2002 Senate race after he compared turbans to diapers, winning only 14% in the multi-party primary.

So now we have Cooksey, Tony Perkins, and Secretary of State Jay Dardenne all sniffing around Vitter’s seat. Let’s just hope that someone can get off the pot soon.

(H/T: The Hill)

At this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tom McClintock and Gary Coleman show up to run in the Republican senate primary in Louisiana. So far, we have a potential challenge to David Vitter, a man who allegedly paid for sex, from Stormy Daniels, a woman whose career is based around being paid for sex. (If Mary Carey’s candidacy for governor of California is any indication, the Daniels candidacy shouldn’t be expected to get any serious traction, if it even becomes official. As a marketing ploy it might not even pencil out for her, if the anticipated revenues from increased sales of DVDs to curious constituents interested in learning more about her positions are exceeded by lost residuals from campaign advertising laws preventing her cinematic works from being shown on Louisiana cable systems.)

As of today, add a more legitimate potential challenger: Tony Perkins, prominent religious right talking head and current head of the Family Research Council. This is what Vitter was trying to head off with his recent moves to the hard right (taking on Clinton for SoS, for instance), but Perkins apparently still smells blood, today telling Politico that he’s “considering” the race.

“I don’t think he needs to say anything else about it, but I don’t think he can do anything else about it,” Perkins said. “Can people feel a sense of trust in him to publicly stand with him and support him and help him? Maybe he has [gotten to that point]. I know I still get some questions. I think he is certainly vulnerable [to] a challenge from the right – a candidate without issues.”

Perkins does have a background in elective politics: he lost the 2002 Senate primary and prior to that was a state representative in Louisiana, where he helped pass the state’s “covenant marriage” law which allows couples to opt into a marriage where divorce becomes more difficult. He also managed the failed 1996 Senate campaign for Woody Jenkins (last seen losing the LA-06 special to Don Cazayoux).

This is an extremely difficult race to handicap, since it’s still unclear who will be running (no Dems have stepped forward yet). It’s also unclear how the Republican base would split in the case of one of the nation’s most right-wing senators being challenged from the right: the breakdown may not be ideological as much as based on religion and region, as Vitter is a Catholic who used to represent New Orleans suburbs, while Perkins is from Baton Rouge and will play better among evangelical Protestants in the state’s north. (And don’t forget that while Louisiana threw out its traditional jungle primary for federal races, it still uses runoffs for primary races where no one hits 50%, and if there’s a third candidate a runoff may result.)

It’s tempting to say that a Democrat would have a better shot against the ostensibly more polarizing Perkins (with his links to the Council of Conservative Citizens and, via the Jenkins campaign, David Duke) than Vitter, but with Vitter’s travails, maybe not. And with Louisiana one of the few states trending away from the Democrats, they might not have much of a shot against either one.