SurveyUSA for KWCH-TV (9/14-15, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parens):
Raj Goyle (D): 40 (42)
Mike Pompeo (R): 50 (49)
David Moffett (L): 3 (4)
Susan Ducey (RP): 4 (1)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±4.3%)
SUSA strikes again, finding Dem Raj Goyle trailing Mike Pompeo by 10 points in this deep red district. Pompeo is helped by an implausible 66-22 lead among 18-to-34 year-olds (up from 48-26 in August). Eventually, SUSA will have to seriously examine why their methodology is conducive to this problem while other IVR pollsters, like PPP, haven’t been plagued by the same issue. Another issue is a bit of procedural sloppiness – SUSA tested Libertarian David Moffett, despite the fact that he dropped out of the race and was substituted for Shawn Smith a week ago. Meanwhile, the Goyle campaign has released their latest internal poll:
Gerstein | Agne for Raj Goyle (9/8-9, likely voters, 8/10-11 in parens):
Raj Goyle (D): 44 (47)
Mike Pompeo (R): 46 (50)
Shawn Smith (L): 4 (-)
Susan Ducey (RP): 2 (-)
Undecided: 4 (3)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Their full polling memo is available below the fold. One area of concurrence between SUSA and Goyle’s pollster is that Goyle is running quite strongly among independents: SUSA gave Goyle a 7-point lead among that bloc, while Gerstein has Goyle up by 8.