Overview
Basically, this Illinois map is a Democratic Gerrymander designed to give the best shot at reasonably-drawn districts, drawn with a trifecta. I was quite creative, but out of 18 (IL loses a seat), only 2 are Safe Republicans (both Central+Southern Illinois). I seek to restore all of the districts we lost in 2010, gain Kirk’s, Roskam’s seat, make the Rockford seat vulnerable in an open-seat situation, snag Judy Biggert’s seat, and create a Champaign/IL-11 mid-state cities district, making for a possibility of 16-2 (at max), but more likely towards 14-4 or 13-5. All while retaining the general spirit of most of the current districts, almost all the districts, except for the general combination of IL-11 and IL-15, contain most of their current territory, though some like Jan Shakowsky and Lipinski are now taking in some suburban and exurban territory. Since there’s no partisan info in david’s redistricting Ap, All districts are either ‘safe’ or a rough approximation by me based on the current structures, plus or minus vote totals/percentages from counties, plus rural v. urban factors.
Oh, and I guess I’m not the only one who suddenly wanted to redistrict Illinois. I like mine better, though 😛
Downstate
IL-15 (R-John Shimkus)
Since the 19th is to be removed, the 19th becomes most of the 15th, except adding counties here and there especially into the present-day 15th, but it’s basically a solidly safe GOP district for Shimkus.
IL-18 (R-Aaron Schock)
He loses Peoria to Hare’s district, but gains a bunch of rural counties from Hare’s district and elsewhere. Safe Republican seat.
IL-12 (D-Jerry Costello)
Very similar to the present district, except with 2 counties worth 50k population that are heavily GOP are removed for the rest of Madison County, and some Macoupin and Calhoun counties, which should make this district ever so slightly more D.
IL-17 (D-Phil Hare?)
Removed the more GOP south and some of the stretcher salient counties (to Shock) for the rest of Whiteside County (solidly dem), a few swing counties, Peoria and some Suburbs in Tazewell County, and another sliver into a good chunk of Springfield. Should likely make the configuration even bluer, for a Phil Hare return, but it’s not impossible for the GOP incumbent to hold onto it in GOP wave elections, but is generally a Likely D (Schock could run here too!).
Central East
IL-11 (D- someone new, Debbie Halvorson? or R-Tim Johnson)
This district contains a bunch of cities scattered across the Eastern-Central part of Illinois, including the cities of Champaign, Danville in Vermillion County, Mattoon and Charleston in Coles County, core urban Dactuar in Macon County, Bloomington in McLean County, Pontiac in Livingston, and then a more IL-11 territory in La Salle, Bureau, Putnam, Northern Grundy and city of Kanzakee in Kanzakee Counties. Basically, it’s pretty amendable to a Democrat, and Tim Johnson will be running for only the most unfriendly places of his former district, probably only 40% of this current district, with highly amendable areas in the remaining 60%. Lean D in a neutral year, with Obama atop the ticket next year.
IL-13 (D- someone new? or R-Judy Biggert)
This district takes the remainders of Ford, Iroquos, Livingston, Kankakee and Grundy counties, which lean GOP, but a rather small portion of the district. It takes up the 70% Southern portion of Will County (a swing, 56% Obama district), and the South+Eastern portion of Kendall county, and part of some South Side Cook County. Overall, with the strongly D Cook County, the swingy nature of Will+Kendall counties, and only small population rural precincts, this should lean D in a neutral year. Judy Biggert could try for this, but she’d only be familiar with Most of Will and a bit of Cook County in her own district, so not very hopeful.
Northern
IL-14 (D- Foster? or R)
similar to the current 14th, takes in most of Ogle, Lee, southern 1/2 of DeKalb, 70% of Kane, and the Aurora-Naperville area of DuPage+Will Counties. Rural counties are meh, but the amount of suburban cities in it with Kane County/Aurora as its base should make this a toss-up, with Foster being favored.
IL-16 (R-Donald Manzullo, or toss-up open seat)
Similar to his current seat, but takes a bit out esp. McHenry and takes in some of DeKalb, Kane and a small bit of Cook counties. This would favor Manzullo quite a bit, but being a modestly Obama district (54% or so), this could be captured in an open-seat situation or wave.
Chicago
IL-01 (D-Bobby Rush)
A Black Majority district (about 52%) based in Southside Chicago, Safe D.
IL-02 (D-Jesse Jackson)
A Black Majority district (about 52%) Based in Southside Chicago, but now extending along the coast into Northern Chicago. Safe D
IL-03 (D-Dan Lipinski)
Now extending into the northern 3/5s of Kendall County, and a slice of Will County, and most of Lipinski’s working-class white sectitons of Cook County – should be more conservative, but since Lipinski is more conservative and it’s still solidly D (56% Kerry / 60% Obama), this remains a Safe D.
IL-04 (D-Luis Guitierrez)
Has a similar C-shaped district based in Cicero and hispanic-majority areas of Chicago, slightly less ugly now. Safe D
IL-05 (D-Mike Quigly)
Extends now into some of DuPage county, loses some of the top of his thin district, but remains similar with some ‘burbs. Safe D
IL-06 (D-Tammy Duckworth/Christine Cegalis? Peter Roskam?)
About 50% of DuPage county here, and then extending into former Schakowsky and Quigley areas, making this much bluer than before. A Democrat should win this, but it’s not impossible that Roskam can too, if he decides to run here.
IL-07 (D-Bobby Rush)
A Black-majority district with some of North Chicago, now safe D.
IL-08 (D-Melissa Bean?)
Similar to the setup now, except takes in slightly more of Lake, slightly less of McHenry, and slightly more of her Cook Suburbs, making this a lean/likely-Melissa Bean / toss-up otherwise.
IL-09 (D-Jan Schakowski)
She loses some of her Northern Cook base like Evanston to extend into the rest of McHenry and NW Cook/DuPage, making this slightly less Democratic in this very safe D seat.
IL-10 (D-Dan Seals? / R-Bob Dold!)
Loses a bit of Lake and extends into Evanston + environs, making this tilt even more D. Dan Seals is a 3-time loser, jeez!, but even he should be able to win it next time around (or how about someone new?!) against Bob Dold!
So, there it is. If this were the map in 2012 predict us picking up the IL-17, IL-08, IL-10 with a good shot at picking up IL-11, IL-13, IL-14, with IL-15 in an Obama+Open Seat scenario. Final prediction would be a 14-4 split, with 1-2 districts to grow in. What do you think?