Tag: IL-11

The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.

The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!

But don’t get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom’s Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:

• AL-02: $150,000
  

• IL-11: $430,000
  

• NJ-03: $74,000
  

• NJ-07: $500,000

The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.

The campaigns of Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Marty Ozinga both released new internal polls today, and they agree on one key point: Halvorson is ahead.

Public Opinion Strategies for Marty Ozinga (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 38 (40)

Marty Ozinga (R): 36 (33)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Anzalone-Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (9/14-16, likely voters, May in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 43 (43)

Marty Ozinga (R): 35 (32)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

If there is a point of concern, it’s that Halvorson hasn’t built on her lead despite a whopping $641,000 spent on her behalf and against Ozinga by the DCCC and EMILY’s List in the past couple of months. Both candidates have their own special kind of baggage (Halvorson for the Blagojevich association, Ozinga for his extremely shady business practices and various tax liens), so this could end up being a matter of which candidate emerges less banged-up at the end of the day.

Ozinga’s poll finds that McCain holds a 44-43% lead in IL-11 — that might at first glance seem a bit slanted given Obama’s home state advantage, but keep in mind that Bush beat John Kerry by a 53-46 margin here in 2004.

Oh, and there’s this nugget from NRCC Chair Tom Cole:

Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Monday the group will contribute the maximum $84,000 in direct or indirect aid allowable by law to Ozinga in the coming weeks.

Cole said the race for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller, R-Morris, is among at least 50 and maybe 60 seats the NRCC will seek to influence in the stretch run. He said the committee had not moved to help Ozinga and other candidates so far due to limited funds.

“This is a ‘don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes,’ ” strategy, Cole said.

It’s sort of fitting that Cole would use a battle cry from the American Revolutionary War, when the range of muskets was severely limited, as the NRCC’s capabilities have certainly regressed by a few decades over the past year and a half.

Also amusing is Cole’s note that the NRCC will influence “at least 50 and maybe 60 seats” this fall. With what? Spitballs? Well, I guess the NRCC can influence a race by not spending any money on it…

UPDATE: Full Anzalone-Liszt polling memo below the fold.

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

A few more expenditures tonight from the DCCC’s now-active independent expenditure arm:

• IL-11: $20,000 on direct mail in support of Debbie Halvorson
• NJ-07: $13,000 on direct mail in support of Linda Stender

The DCCC has now spent a total of $87,000 in IL-11 and $26,000 in NJ-07.

It looks like the DCCC’s independent expenditure operation is kicking into gear. After spending $100,000 on ads in Illinois’ 11th CD and Texas’ 22nd CD yesterday, the DCCC is spending money today on direct mail in Illinois and New Jersey:

• IL-11: $20,000 in support of Debbie Halvorson
• NJ-07: $13,000 in support of Linda Stender

With over $54 million in the bank, that’s just the start of many, many more expenditures to come. We’ll be sure to keep you up to date as more numbers come in.

The latest independent expenditure reports are in, and the DCCC has just dropped $100K on producing and airing new ads in Illinois and Texas.

In the open seat race for IL-11, the DCCC is spending $39,000 on an ad buy in support of Democrat Debbie Halvorson. The Hotline has the full script:

ANNCR: “The Middle Class is getting squeezed. Debbie Halvorson knows we’re working harder and getting less, that’s why she led the fight to lower prescription drug costs for Illinois seniors, and Halvorson helped give thousands of children and working families affordable health insurance. Now she wants to take our fight to Congress. She’ll take on George Bush’s Policies. And bring common sense back to our government. Debbie Halvorson, a fighter for us. The DCCC is responsible for the content of this advertisement.”

In Texas’ 22nd CD, the DCCC is dropping $44,000 on an ad buy in support of imperiled Democratic incumbent Nick Lampson. No copies of this ad have been made available yet.

SSP currently rates both IL-11 and TX-22 as Tossups.

Anzalone-Liszt Research for Debbie Halvorson (5/18-22, likely voters):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 43

Martin Ozinga (R): 32

Jason Wallace (G): 6

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Despite this being an R+1.1 district, Democrats hold a 44%-33% generic ballot advantage over Republicans, and a 41%-35% advantage in partisan self-identification.

Certainly not a bad place to start for Halvorson. Full memo below the fold.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Caught this story on The Fix.  Democratic candidate Debbie Halvorson has been removed from her chairmanship of the Illinois State Senate Rules Committee.

The Crete Democrat has been at the head of the committee for at least two years, but was removed completely after she came under fire by Republican Marty Ozinga III’s campaign for her apparent inability to pass a popular recall amendment, a measure Halvorson supported but Senate President Emil Jones and Gov. Rod Blagojevich vehemently opposed.

“Jones said we have some more issues that we need to work on for this session, and that my opponent is making a big deal and taking everything out of context, and that it’s distracting to what we need to get accomplished,” Halvorson said. “I’m very surprised. I did not ask for it.”

….

In a 2000 story by the Associated Press, Halvorson, then on the minority side, said the Rules Committee drives the legislative agenda of the in-power party. “That’s what happens when you rule the place. While you have the gavel, you have the power,” Halvorson was quoted as saying.

Ozinga’s campaign says Halvorson only started “bucking Jones” during her congressional campaign, but Halvorson offered two examples from before her campaign days: She opposed the proposed gross receipts tax and wanted a capital bill approved before a CTA bailout, both issues on which she and Jones disagreed, she said.

Are you kidding me?  Her Republican opponent complains about her standing up for what she believes in, so the Senate president removes her from her position?  Let’s hope this backfires on Ozinga from saying that Halvorson is simply a “rubber-stamp” for Jones.

Meanwhile, it looks like Ozinga hired Jack Abramoff consultant Jonathan Poe to be his media consultant.  We’ll see if this story has legs, though I doubt it, as Poe didn’t do anything illegal.

Per The Crypt, the GOP has found a wealthy magnate to take the place of Tim Baldermann.

Illinois Republicans selected concrete magnate Marty Ozinga III to be their nominee for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.), replacing New Lenox mayor Tim Baldermann on the 11th District Congressional ballot.

….

Ozinga also announced he has raised over $400,000 since he began fundraising earlier this month, significantly closing the cash-on-hand gap between himself and his Democratic opponent, state Senate President Debbie Halvorson. Halvorson reported $673,000 in her campaign account at the end of March.

What piqued my interest was that though Ozinga’s wealthy, he’s not exactly a self funder.  Why?

Ozinga told the Associated Press yesterday that, despite his substantial personal wealth, he was unlikely to put more than $350,000 of his own money into the race. He elaborated on those remarks in an interview with Politico today.

“It’s a mistake, a bad strategy to try to put your own money in yourself – it’s the broad base that gets people invested in the thing overall and makes you a better candidate,” Ozinga said.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Ryan Rudominer, meanwhile, attributed Ozinga’s fundraising haul to “cashing in on his rolodex of fellow fat cats who have made a career of gaming the system.”

OK, that may be well and good, but guess what else happens when you put in more than $350,000?  You trigger the Millionaires’ Amendment.  Methinks that was no coincidence he mentioned that specific amount as the one he didn’t want to break.

And a wag of the finger to the Politico for not catching that and mentioning it in their article.

Now even if the DCCC is correct that it’s Ozinga’s “fellow fat cats” giving to him, the bottom line is that he’s quickly become financially competitive against Debbie Halvorson, who was part of the DCCC’s first round of their Red to Blue program.  She’s raised a total of $433,970 since the pre-primary FEC report on January 17, 2008.  He’s raised over $400,000 in April alone.  Ugh.

So, what can we do?  Well, for starters, you can go to her ActBlue page and contribute!

You know times are rough for the GOP when they have to plow through twenty names in order to find a replacement candidate for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller:

Chicago-area concrete contractor Martin Ozinga (R) is expected to be added next month to the November ballot to succeed Illinois GOP Rep. Jerry Weller, a Republican operative in the Land of Lincoln told Roll Call on Monday.

For weeks, Republican county chairmen in Weller’s central Illinois district have worked their way through a list of 20 potential replacements for New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, who abruptly dropped out of the race to replace Weller a month ago.

Ouch!