crossposted at RRH
We at Stochastic Democracy are proud to announce preliminary forecasts for selected 2011 Gubernatorial, 2012 Gubernatorial and 2012 Senatorial contests- namely the 24 out of 48 races that have already been polled. We expect to expand our forecasts in this area within the next few weeks, but for now our predictions are little more than a smoothed average of available polling data.
Still, it’s useful to have all of this data in one centralized place. All of the polls were done with Registered Voters, and so we have provided adjustments for different turnout scenarios in the same style as our Presidential forecasts.
2011 Gubernatorial Elections
The 2011 West Virginia Gubernatorial Race is fully open at this point. Well, that’s maybe the wrong way to put it- West Virginians have clear preferences depending on if Congresswoman Shelley Moore-Capito (WV-02, R) gets in the race. If she does, she’s a clear favorite, if not, then the leading Democratic candidates (SoS Tennant and Acting Governor Tomblin) are heavily favored.
2012 Gubernatorial Elections
If North Carolina Republican Pat McCrory decides to run for Governor, the race leans strongly in his favor. Incumbent Missouri Democrat Jay Nixon is favored to win his race against probable Republican nominee, Lt.Gov. Peter Kinder at this point.
2012 Senate Elections
Now this is a lot of data to digest- and we won’t attempt to give an interpretation of it right now. But depending on the turnout scenario and the success of the party committees in candidate improvements it appears as if the Republicans would either narrowly miss picking up the Senate or narrowly take it over. Informative!