Virginia and Rhode Island don’t have a lot in common, except for the fact that PPP just put out Republican primary numbers for both states this week. So we figured we’d bundle `em up into one post.
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (2/24-27, VA Republican primary voters, no trendlines):
George Allen (R): 67
Bob Marshall (R): 7
David McCormick (R):3
Jamie Radtke (R): 4
Corey Stewart (R): 3
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.9)
This is disappointing news for anyone – such as myself – hoping to see George Allen get teabagged. In a one-on-one matchup against Republican Jesus (aka “someone more conservative”), Allen wins by 52-25 – impressive numbers, and far better than anyone else PPP has asked this question of. The important thing to remember, though, is that in 2010, the most important factor in whether an establishment candidate could be successfully teabagged to death was the involvement of the Tea Party Express. Though they’re a bunch of grifters who keep the lion’s share of what they raise for themselves, they’re also capable of changing elections. The Club for Growth can do this, too (and did so, in the NY-23 special), though they seem to be playing ball with the GOP bigs more often these days.
If Allen doesn’t cheese off TPX, or if they simply decide he’s too strong, then he may well just cruise to the nomination. I have a hard time seeing Bob Marshall gaining much traction (i.e., raising much money) without some outside help. (Anyhow, the most interesting news out of Virginia is just how well Obama is doing there: 48-42 over Mitt Romney and bigger margins against everyone else.)
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (2/16-22, RI Republican primary voters, no trendlines):
Don Carcieri (R): 44
Scott Avedisian (R): 12
Buddy Cianci (R): 12
John Loughlin (R): 12
John Robitaille (R): 12
Allan Fung (R): 6
Catherine Taylor (R): 2
Giovanni Cicione (R): 0John Robitaille (R): 31
John Loughlin (R): 24
Scott Avedisian (R): 21
Allan Fung (R): 14
Giovanni Cicione (R): 3
Catherine Taylor (R): 2
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±6.2)
As Tom notes, Carcieri, the immediate past governor, actually performs the worst of all Republicans against Whitehouse. However, no one’s actually confirmed a run, so who knows who the GOP nominee will be. (For what it’s worth, Romney, the former governor of next-door Massachusetts, unsurprisingly cleans up in the presidential race.)