Tag: MD-01

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

Frank Kratovil (D): 40

Andy Harris (R): 44

(MoE: ±5%)

Ordinarily, you wouldn’t expect a Democrat to be within close range in an R+10, culturally conservative district like this one. However, Frank Kratovil has a number of things going for him. One, it’s an open-ish seat, where beloved moderate incumbent Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary by Club for Growth nutcase Andy Harris… and Gilchrest gave his endorsement to Kratovil. And also, this is a case (like the Staten Island/Brooklyn split in NY-13) where geography plays a big role in a provincial district: Kratovil is a state’s attorney from the Eastern Shore, where the bulk of the district’s population lives, and Harris is a state senator from Baltimore County, a part of the state that’s not too popular on the Eastern Shore.

This appears to be the first public poll of the race, but Kratovil’s internal polls have shown him steadily gaining ground, culminating in a 2-point lead in an internal from several weeks ago. Harris still has built-in advantages in this conservative district (although the same sample finds McCain leading Obama only 47-43, so this district may not be R+10 much longer), but the polls suggest this may be one of our closest races next week.

Garin Hart Yang for Frank Kratovil (10/7-8, likely voters, 4/23-24 in parens):

Frank Kratovil (D): 43 (34)

Andy Harris (R): 41 (43)

Undecided: 16 (23)

(MoE: ±5)

The last poll we saw from this open seat race, a DCCC internal from Grove Insight, had the race tied at 36-36 — a result fueled in part by outgoing GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest’s endorsement of Kratovil in early September. Since then, the DCCC has come in with over $630,000 in expenditures against Harris.

While the Harris campaign predictably is scoffing at these numbers, it seems telling that we haven’t seen a GOP-sponsored poll of this race since July. So in response to two promising polling results for Kratovil in a row, will they now put out some of their own numbers?

UPDATE: The full polling memo is available below the fold.

The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.

The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!

But don’t get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom’s Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:

• AL-02: $150,000
  

• IL-11: $430,000
  

• NJ-03: $74,000
  

• NJ-07: $500,000

The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.

Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/9-12, likely voters):

Andy Harris (R): 36

Frank Kratovil (D): 36

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4.9%)

When we last checked into this race, Andy Harris posted a 44-28 lead in his own poll from July, and Kratovil was trailing by 43-34 in an internal poll of his own from April.

It looks like that endorsement from sitting GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest is beginning to pay off:

The economy, access to affordable health care and cutting taxes are the three top issues according to Maryland voters. And when asked whether Congressman Gilchrest’s endorsement makes respondents more or less likely to vote for Frank Kratovil, one in four independent voters and one in three voters over the age of 60 said Gilchrest’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Frank Kratovil.

A sweet score for Democrat Frank Kratovil:

Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest, ousted after nine terms in a bitter Republican primary campaign last winter, will cross party lines today to endorse Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr. in the 1st Congressional District.

A senior member of Gilchrest’s staff confirmed yesterday that the veteran lawmaker – who earned a reputation as a staunch environmentalist who frequently clashed with Republican Party leaders – will join Kratovil, an Eastern Shore prosecutor, at appearances today in Annapolis and Easton.

Gilchrest succeeded for nearly a decade in the far-flung district, which covers the Eastern Shore and parts of Anne Arundel, Harford and Baltimore counties, by tapping support from moderate Democrats and Republicans in general election wins.

Gilchrest was defeated in the GOP primary by state Sen. Andy Harris, and has now done what seemed inevitable and endorsed the Democrat in the race. It’s a timely boost that gives Kratovil a fighting chance this November in this R+10 district.

(H/T: conspiracy)

UPDATE: Like clockwork, Kratovil is out with this new ad starring none other than Rep. Wayne Gilchrest:

A poll from University of New Hampshire Survey Center that showed Shaheen leading Sununu 46%-42% also came with half the people polled in CD-01.

University of New Hampshire Survey Center (7/11-20) 240 people (MoE 6.4%)

Bradley – 46%

Shea-Porter – 40%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Next, an internal poll from the Harris campign that should probably be taken with a grain of salt (as the link says – High MoE + Poll Taken in one day)

Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates for Harris (7/15) 300 people (MoE 5.65%)

Harris – 44%

Kratovil – 28%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

I would take both polls with a grain of salt because I doubt Sununu is only down four points in the NH-Sen race.  

MD-01 Fundraising round-up

Maryland-01*** (R+10) – – –  R2B

Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris

Total Raised — $789,000 v. $1,905,000

Cash On Hand – $454,000 v. $609,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 results – http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…

NH-01 Fundraising round-up

New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

Total Raised — $919,000 v. $714,000

Cash On Hand – $748,000 v. $475,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 results – http://www.opensecrets.org/rac…  

Finkelstein & Associates for Andy Harris (7/15, registered voters):

Frank Kratovil (D): 28

Andy Harris (R): 44

(MoE: ±5.7%)

A different internal poll taken for Frank Kratovil in May had the race slightly closer, at 43-34. For what it’s worth, between the Finkelstein poll’s high margin of error, its single day range and its sample of registered (and not likely) voters, I think I prefer the Garin-Hart-Yang numbers.

Kratovil has the geographical advantage of being the only candidate in the race from the district’s Eastern Shore, whereas Harris’ base is in the Baltimore suburbs. But this race will instantaneously get more interesting if Kratovil could manage to score a fall endorsement from Wayne Gilchrest, the longtime moderate incumbent whom Harris defeated in the GOP primary. Many of Gilchrest’s staffers are already working for the Democrat’s campaign, so perhaps it could happen.

Garin-Hart-Yang for Frank Kratovil (4/23-24, likely voters):

Andy Harris (R): 43

Frank Kratovil (D): 34

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±5)

Harris, as you recall, knocked off moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in a contentious primary earlier this year.  Despite Gilchrest’s non-endorsement of war wingnut Harris, at a PVI of R+9.8, this is going to be a tough district for Kratovil to win.  He’ll need to wage an aggressive campaign painting Harris as an extremist in order to have a shot here.

(H/T: RandySF)

This is hot off the presses. A new poll of the MD-01 race shows Democrat Frank Kratovil is withing strking distance of his Republican opponent, Andy Harris, who beat Wayne Gilcrest in a primary back in February.

As Democrats reassess their chances in once-safe Republican districts after their successes in a series of special elections this spring, one place they may take a closer look at is Maryland’s Eastern Shore-based 1st district.

In that race, Queen Anne’s County State’s Attorney Frank Kratovil (D) has pulled within single digits of state Sen. Andy Harris (R), according to a month-old Democratic poll obtained by Roll Call today.

The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group poll of 400 likely voters gave Harris 43 percent of the vote and Kratovil 34 percent, with 23 percent undecided. The poll was conducted April 23-24 and had a 5-point margin of error.

The numbers got even tighter among voters who were familiar with the backgrounds of both candidates.

I’m still digesting this, so I will have more to say on the thread later.

Now this is something.  Lynn Caligiuri, who served as GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest’s campaign and finance director since 1999, has joined the campaign of Democrat and state’s attorney Frank Kratovil a few months after the moderate Gilchrest was defeated in a primary by the Club For Growth-backed nutcase Andy Harris.  From the Politico:

Lynn Caligiuri, who worked on all of Gilchrest’s reelection campaigns, called Kratovil’s campaign “the best opportunity to continue the thoughtful, moderate approach that Gilchrest has brought to the district for nearly two decades” and endorsed the Democrat. […]

“Obviously many of us were disappointed in the Republican primary results, but we now have an opportunity to send someone to Washington to continue to represent our values and end the partisan attacks and divisiveness that has rendered Congress ineffective and unresponsive,” said Caligiuri. “Frank Kratovil is the right choice.”

Could this be a harbinger of a Gilchrest endorsement for Kratovil?