Tag: IL-Sen

April 15, 2009:

“I’m going to be spending the next two weeks doing a very careful analysis of the issues presented in Illinois on both sides and then make a decision about whether I would run for Congress again or look to the Senate or governorship,” [Mark] Kirk told reporters after a speech at the City Club of Chicago. “And so, I have set a deadline for myself of making a decision by the end of the month and we’ll stick to that.”

Huh, see the current stardate? I guess Captain Kirk must still be stuck in spacedock.

• PA-Sen: Tom Ridge’s appearance on Hardball yesterday may have set a new bar for equivocation. He wouldn’t commit to whether or not he’d vote for would-be rival Pat Toomey in the GOP primary, instead veering off into extolling the virtues of the secret ballot. On the flipside, in a nice bit of symmetry, Arlen Specter told Fox News that he can’t promise to vote with the Dems “all the time” on procedural votes. So, the takeaway is: nobody’s promising anything.

• NY-Sen-B: Charles Schumer has ratcheted up his efforts to grease the wheels for Kirsten Gillibrand’s re-election path in 2010, hooking her up with donors, lobbying to get her on the good committees, and trying to tamp down possible primary challenges. “There is not going to be a primary!” he recently announced at a fundraiser (to the laughs of the audience… although I’m not sure whether the insiders were laughing due to his comic timing or the audacity and/or futility of his statement).

• IL-Sen: Roland Burris is starting to seem like that last guest at the party who isn’t getting the message that it’s time to go home. Burris says he would like to keep his Senate seat, but will have to make “a formal decision in the next few weeks based on his ability to raise money for a campaign.” With a total of $845 raised so far… well… you do the math.

• KY-Sen: One more Kentuckian is touring the state gauging potential support for the GOP Senate primary, which may or may not contain Jim Bunning. It’s Rand Paul, a doctor who’s never held elected office before but has one important ace in the hole: he’s the son of Rep. Ron Paul, which, if nothing else, establishes his liberatarian bona fides and gives him a nationwide fundraising base of fringe weirdo small donors.

• NM-Gov: Two new candidates have emerged as possible contenders for the Republican nomination for governor in the Land of Enchantment: former state GOP chair Allen Weh (who was intrumental in the firing of US Attorney David Iglesias), who opened an exploratory committee this week, and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who’s in the “considering” stage. National Guard Brig. Gen. Greg Zanetti is already in the race. This race could get more interesting if ex-Rep. Heather Wilson joined this paltry lot, but with the Dems already coalesced behind Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, the GOP is starting out in a hole here.

• CA-47: Remember how Bill Sali had his campaign HQ in the wrong district? GOP assemblyman Van Tran seems to be following in Rep. Brain Fade’s fine footsteps, at least in the map skills department. He kicked off his campaign with an event in the Little Saigon neighborhood in Westminster… in CA-46.

• CA-32: In the run-up to the May special election, state Sen. Gil Cedillo has turned his fire toward the race’s third wheel: Emanuel Pleitez. Pleitez, a 26-year-old up-and-comer who was part of the Obama transition team, threatens to eat into Cedillo’s share of the Latino vote (which he’ll need to dominate if he’s to beat Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu). Cedillo is sending flyers using photos grabbed from Pleitez’s Facebook page to make the case that he’s too young and immature for Congress.

• TN-04: A stem-winding progressive-sounding speech came from a very unlikely place: Blue Dog Rep. Lincoln Davis, holder of a newly-minted R+13 seat, speaking at last weekend’s Tennessee Democratic Party summit.

• Mayors: There’s another batch of big-city mayoral elections this Saturday, all in Texas. In San Antonio, 34-year-old former city councilor Julian Castro is favored to win. Castro finished second four years ago to Phil Hardberger, who’s now termed-out. In Austin, the best-known mayoral contender is Carole Strayhorn, who was mayor of Austin in the 1970s and ran for governor as an independent in the crazy 2006 gubernatorial election. Strayhorn, however, is probably too conservative for today’s Austin, and the frontrunner seems to be city councilor Brewster McCracken.

• Census: The state of New York is ponying up $2 million in state funding to bolster participation in the 2010 Census, mostly for outreach campaigns to traditionally undercounted populations. Assumedly, they think this money will pay much greater dividends later, if a more accurate count reveals more New Yorkers and thus brings in more federal funding for social programs.

• LA-Sen: In a tantalizing item, the Hotline teases that “The DSCC won’t let Rep. Melancon (D) alone.” Does this mean Melancon could be back in the recruiting crosshairs, despite previously saying he was “not contemplating a run”? The Hotline’s note is behind a subscription paywall; if you have access to it, please feel free to elaborate in comments.

April 15, 2009:

“I’m going to be spending the next two weeks doing a very careful analysis of the issues presented in Illinois on both sides and then make a decision about whether I would run for Congress again or look to the Senate or governorship,” Kirk told reporters after a speech at the City Club of Chicago. “And so, I have set a deadline for myself of making a decision by the end of the month and we’ll stick to that.”

Well, look at that: it appears that the current stardate is already past Mark Kirk’s self-imposed decision-making “deadline”, with nary a peep out of his camp yet on the results of his deliberations. So what’s it gonna be, Captain?

Just a quick blurb is all so far:

WASHINGTON — Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) is poised to jump in the 2010 Illinois Senate race.

Developing …

More as it comes. Earlier today, James posted a PPP poll which showed Kirk in the mid-30s against all contenders except the embarrassing Roland Burris.

If Kirk does make the move, this will be great news for open seat fans. At D+6, this is the second-bluest seat held by a Republican nationwide. Obama won the district (in his home state, of course) by a monstrous 61-38 margin according to SSP’s analysis, and even Kerry carried it 53-47. Democrats also have a strong contender at the ready for this seat, state Sen. Michael Bond, though I’d expect others to become interested if it opens up.

UPDATE (James): In a bit of a sleazy move, Lynn Sweet of the Sun-Times has wiped over her original blog post on Kirk’s supposed entry without making a note of her revision, and replaced it with a new entry saying that he is merely “mulling” the race — hardly a newsworthy nugget at all.

Public Policy Polling (4/24-26, registered voters):

Roland Burris (D-inc): 19

Mark Kirk (R): 53

Undecided: 28

Jan Schakowsky (D): 33

Mark Kirk (R): 37

Undecided: 30

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 35

Mark Kirk (R): 35

Undecided: 29

Lisa Madigan (D): 49

Mark Kirk (R): 33

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±3.1%)

You’ve gotta figure that if Mark Kirk had a clear shot at a one-on-one race against Roland K. Burris, he’d leap at the opportunity… but the problem for him is that pesky Democratic primary, which is all but certain to weed out Burris from contention. While on the surface, Kirk polls very competitively against any Democrat for the Senate race other than Lisa Madigan (who does not appear to be a likely candidate), a disproportionate number of undecideds are Democratic voters (around 30% in the Schakowsky and Giannoulias head-to-heads), compared to only 19% of Republicans who are on the fence. In other words, once that money starts rolling, the Democratic nominee will have a lot more room for growth.

And who may that nominee be? PPP took a look at the Senate primary yesterday, too (4/24-26, likely Democratic voters):

Roland Burris (D-inc): 20

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 49

Undecided: 30

Roland Burris (D-inc): 16

Jan Schakowsky (D): 26

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38

Undecided: 21

Roland Burris (D-inc): 13

Jan Schakowsky (D): 11

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 19

Lisa Madigan (D): 44

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.8%)

No matter which way you slice it, Burris is done. As for Lisa Madigan, it seems that whichever race she chooses, she’s favored to win it (see David’s piece yesterday for the gubernatorial primary numbers). She’s also performing even more strongly than incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn in the gubernatorial general election against GOP state Sen. Bill Brady:

Lisa Madigan (D): 46

Bill Brady (R): 27

Undecided: 26

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 39

Bill Brady (R): 32

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±3.1%)

Lisa’s got options.

• FL-Sen: It’s poorly sourced, but conventional wisdom seems to be reaching some sort of critical mass on the idea that Gov. Charlie Crist will announce within the next week whether or not he will run for the open senate seat in Florida. Some say he is a “near lock” to switch over to the senate race.

• IL-Sen: Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, is now publicly pondering entering the Illinois senate race. Kennedy has never held elective office; he’s a developer who runs Chicago’s Merchandise Mart. On the other hand, he’s been a Chicago fixture most of his life, and has that certain last name. One source says there’s an “85% chance” he’ll do it.

• CA-Sen: In case there was any doubt, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has officially announced her plans to seek re-election. (J)

• GA-Gov: State senator Eric Johnson has, with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropping out of the gubernatorial race, switched from running for lieutenant governor to governor. He joins SoS Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and state rep. Austin Scott in the hunt for the GOP nomination.

• AL-Gov: Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, Alabama’s only Democratic appellate judge, is interested in joining the already-crowded field seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She would have to resign her position (in which case GOP governor Bob Riley would appoint a new chief justice) in order to campaign for governor, though.

• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is the likely candidate to take on Carol Shea-Porter, and he has produced an internal poll showing him trailing Shea-Porter 43-34. Shea-Porter is well-below the danger mark of 50, but on the other hand, Guinta isn’t an unknown; he already represents nearly 20% of the district.

• ID-01: Are you there, God? It’s me, Brain Fade. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali (R) sounds like he’s angling to make a comeback against Democrat Walt Minnick next year. In an email to supporters, Sali says that he’s “increasingly troubled by the direction our country is headed” and is asking his supporters to pray for him as he considers his political future. (J)

• SD-AL: South Dakota’s Republican Secretary of State, Chris Nelson, has made known his interest in running for South Dakota’s at-large House seat. Nelson, who’s term-limited out, didn’t seem to make this contingent on whether or not Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ran for higher office, like the open governor’s seat (which has been rumored, but doesn’t seem to be taking shape).

• CA-47: The GOP is looking to Vietnamese-American assemblyman Van Tran as a candidate against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Orange County district. This very low-turnout district is about 15% Asian and 70% Hispanic.

• CA-26: Businessman Russ Warner, who ran unsuccessfully against GOP Rep. David Dreier in 2008 (and attempted to do the same in 2006, but ran into a snag in the form of a primary loss), says that he plans to run for a third time next year in this Dem-trending CD. (J)

• DCCC: Everybody’s favorite new villainess, Michele Bachmann, has been so prolific with the oddball fringe-right comments lately that she’s actually getting her own page at the DCCC’s website. Imagine that: from backbencher to public enemy #1 in less than half a year!

Lake Research Partners for Jan Schakowsky (4/19-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jan Schakowsky (D): 24

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 22

Roland Burris (D-inc): 18

Undecided: 36

(MoE: ±4%)

Schakowsky represents IL-09, a northern Chicago district with a D+20 PVI. Her own polling memo (Progress Illinois has the full text) frames the race as being “wide open,” which makes sense – Giannoulias, the state Treasurer, has a lot of money and is buddy-buddy with Barack Obama. Schakowsky will have to fight hard to wrest this nomination away from him. The memo says Giannoulias has higher name rec than Schakowsky, but doesn’t specify numbers (I’d bet both are pretty low, though).

Progress Illinois also reports that Schakowsky is sending out a separate letter today saying that she’ll announce her plans on June 8th. The bigger question mark is still probably Roland Burris – not that I think he has much of a shot at winning, but if he bails, his supporters have to go somewhere. Schakowsky thinks it might be to Chicago Urban League CEO Cheryle Jackson, but we’ll have to wait and see. Illinois does have the earliest primary in the nation (February 2010), so serious candidates can’t wait too much longer to make up their minds.

Big news in the Illinois senate destruction derby. William Daley, the Clinton-era Commerce Secretary and brother to Chicago mayor Richard Daley, has opted not to get into the race after all:

It’s over: “I was gung-ho, and hired pollsters and talked to fund-raisers and planned to make an announcement in mid-April,” Daley told Sneed yesterday. “But I’m getting remarried in June and decided I want to take a new tack in my life. I just don’t want to live a commuter life back and forth from Washington.”

Hmmm. Maybe he didn’t like what the pollsters were telling him, or more likely, he didn’t like what he was in his wallet, compared with the $1.1 million that treasurer Alexi Giannoulias pulled down in the first quarter. Still, with the full force of the legendary Daley machine behind him, he would have presented Giannoulias with a formidable challenge… maybe enough of a challenge to outright win, or more ominously, enough of a challenge for him and Giannoulias to punch each other out and accidentally allow Roland Burris, on the strength of African-American votes, to win the primary.

With Daley out, a one-on-one contest between (Friend of Barack) Giannoulias, and Roland Burris and his $845, seems like no contest whatsoever. But now Daley bailing out (and Burris’s increasingly apparent ineptitude) raises the question of whether someone else gets in. Rep. Jan Schakowsky is certainly interested in the senate seat but seems loath to leave her safe house seat; a likelier possibility may in fact be Rep. Danny Davis, who has been urging Burris to get out of the way and may now see more of an opening for himself now that it looks like Burris may not even have much of a foothold on the African-American vote.

That’s Bond, Michael Bond:

State Sen. Michael Bond (D) is gearing up to run for Rep. Mark Kirk’s (R) seat, according to sources familiar with the situation. Kirk is pondering a bid for Senate in 2010, and his departure would make his north Chicagoland seat a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Bond has tapped John Lapp to do his media campaign, Bennett, Petts & Normington to his polling and Ed Peavy to do direct mail for the race, according to one source familiar with the arrangement. The source also said a former aide to Rep. Melissa Bean (D), Brian Herman, will manage his campaign.

Kirk himself has set a pretty definite timeline for deciding his 2010 plans (“by the end of the month”), but the fact that Bond is already putting a campaign team together may indicate a willingness to run regardless of Kirk’s intentions. In any case, Bond may have company in an open seat race — fellow state Sen. Susan Garrett says that she’s considering a bid, and ’06/’08 nominee Dan Seals is known to be interested to run again if Kirk bails on the seat.

More info on Bond is available here.

• DNC/RNC: The RNC seems to win the fundraising month for March, in a bit of a split decision. The DNC reported $7.57 million in contributions last month, while the RNC pulled in $6.7 million. However, $2 million of those Democratic dollars were transferred from the Obama campaign. More ominously, the RNC is sitting on $23.9 million cash on hand and no debt, while the DNC has $9.7 million cash on hand and $6.9 million in debt.

• IL-Sen: Hot on the heels of his $845 fundraising quarter, the new Rasmussen poll shows Roland Burris might want to make some post-2010 plans. 4% of respondents say they will “definitely” vote for him and 54% will vote against, with 39% saying it depends on who’s running. 62% think he should resign, with 24% believing he should remain in the Senate. (The poll doesn’t test Burris in any head-to-heads.) The poll also finds Jesse Jackson Jr. looking badly tarnished in the wake of the Blagojevich implosion: his favorables are now 32-63. One other tidbit that makes Lisa Madigan’s job harder if she runs for IL-Gov: Pat Quinn’s job approval is a surprisingly high 61-37.

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln has drawn at least one legitimate challenger for 2010: state senate minority leader Kim Hendren has announced his candidacy. Hendren has self-funding abilities and a strong base in northwest Arkansas (the traditionally Republican part of the state), which at least gives him a leg up in the primary. Hendren, however, is old (71)… old enough that one claim to fame is that he lost a race to Bill Clinton (the 1982 gubernatorial primary, when Hendren was still a Democrat)… and promising to serve only one term. Lincoln defeated state senators in both her 1998 and 2004 bids.

• NV-Sen, NV-02: GOP Rep. Dean Heller says that “his plan today” is to run for re-election, but he’s also refusing to rule out a run against Handsome Harry Reid. (J)

• IL-14: After getting their pants kicked in by Democrat Bill Foster in two consecutive elections, the Illinois GOP may turn to the Name You Know in 2010 — Dennis Hastert’s son, Ethan. 31 year-old Ethan Hastert, a Chicagoland attorney, says that he’s “exploring” a run for his dad’s old seat, and is already polling his name against Foster in a trial poll. Ethan’s previous claim to fame: serving as assistant to Lewis “Scooter” Libby. (J)

• FL-05: Jim Piccillo will be challenging Ginny Brown-Waite in this light-red district. Piccillo has an interesting backstory: no previous political experience, and was a Republican until last year when he was driven away by the tenor of the campaign, but the recipient of a lot of media exposure after being profiled by the NYT in a feature on Florida Republicans abandoning the party. At least he sounds better than this guy.

• DE-AL, FL-10: Our top-shelf Democratic recruits have launched new websites: John Carney and Charlie Justice. (D)

• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they’ll poll next. The choices: Georgia, Illinois, and Oklahoma. Get busy voting and then tell us which race you picked in the comments. (J)