Tag: AK-AL

In case you haven’t heard yet, John McCain’s out-of-the-box Vice-Presidential pick is Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska. Now let me start by saying: I’m baffled, because her lack of experience (two years as governor of one of the nation’s smallest, and, let’s face it, most unusual states… and prior to that, mayor of a town of about 7,000) dramatically undercuts his ability to hit Obama on the not-ready-to-lead charge.

On top of that, there’s the mini-scandal associated with Trooper-gate, which revealed a rather vindictive and not so squeaky-clean Palin going after the head trooper who wouldn’t fire her screw-up ex-brother-in-law. There’s also the not-so-small matter of Alaska having only 3 electoral votes, although it does legitimately qualify as a swing state this year. Maybe after the Dem convention, the Republicans have realized the not-ready-to-lead thing just isn’t going to work on Obama, and, despite the pleasant whiff of unity coming out of Denver, are banking on peeling off a few points’ worth of PUMAs who may be attracted to a female pick (and Palin is one of the few prominent Republican women conservative enough that she won’t irritate the base).

Anyway, let’s step away from the Presidential politics; this is Swing State Project, after all! Here’s the hypothetical: what if, for some reason, McCain/Palin wins? The next person in line is Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. If the current vote count in the AK-AL race holds, it looks like Parnell might have his schedule free to take over as governor after all.

On the other hand, what if Parnell manages to squeak past Don Young in the recount (and since the person in charge of administering Alaskan elections is none other than Parnell, don’t rule it out!), and then makes it past Ethan Berkowitz in the general? We discussed this very possibility, remote as it seemed at the time, in our VP Vacancy Speculation thread a few months ago. It turns out that the Alaska constitution and election statutes don’t specify who the #3 person in the line of succession is, but an Attorney General opinion Alaska law allows the governor to designate a third person. The currently designated person is Republican Attorney General Talis Colberg.

There’s one more possibility: what if Parnell wins AK-AL, but put in the position of being able to choose between being governor or representative, chooses the power of governor over the potential longevity of representative? Then, as far as I can tell, we’d be in immediate special election territory for the vacant House seat.

Your thoughts?

UPDATE: In this video (from several weeks ago), Palin admits that she doesn’t really know what the VP does every day. Try doing that at your next job interview!

In the diaries, Andy Dufresne makes a nice catch — if GOP Rep. Don Young loses his primary bid to Sean Parnell, he won’t rule out an Independent run in November:

Asked if he would consider running as an Independent if he lost the primary, Young said he hadn’t considered it.

“It’s a good idea; I might,” he said. “But I don’t expect him to win the primary.”

Now, the next logical question is: Is it possible for Young to get on the ballot as an Indie?

A quick legal analysis of Alaska electoral statutes by the Law Offices of Crumb & Bum, LLC, tells us that the only path for Young would be to wage a write-in campaign. The deadline for filing petitions to get on the ballot was primary day, so the write-in option is really Young’s only choice:

If a candidate does not appear on the primary election ballot or is not successful in advancing to the general election and wishes to be a candidate in the general election, the candidate may file as a write-in candidate.

However, all of this may be moot, as Young still holds a 152-vote lead with one precinct — but several thousand absentee and questioned ballots — outstanding.

Andy cranks it up a notch by looking at the district-by-district returns in Alaska, and finds that Young has actually performed slightly better among the absentee ballots counted so far than he has in the overall vote. That seems to be a good sign that the outstanding absentee ballots will help The Donald pad his preciously narrow margin.

We still likely won’t have a final answer for another couple of weeks, which is fantastic news for Ethan Berkowitz. According to Roll Call, the state will take another 10 to 15 days to count absentee and provisional ballots, and a winner will be certified on Sept. 17th or 18th. But that’s not all:

If the final difference between the two candidates is less than a half percentage point, a defeated candidate or 10 voters can petition a recount with the state footing the bill. If the difference between Parnell and Young is more than a half percentage point, a recount could be implemented at their own expense to the tune of about $15,000.

The recount would take an additional three to five days, pushing the GOP tension and uncertainty all the way into late September.

A quick round-up of the results from last night’s congressional primaries:

• AK-Sen (D): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich won the Democratic Senate nomination with an impressive 91% of the vote, with 98% of precincts reporting.
• AK-Sen (R): Ted Stevens survived his primary against banker Dave Cuddy and Floridian beardo Vic Vickers (and several other also-rans), but only with 63.5% of the vote.
• AK-AL (D): Ethan Berkowitz won the Democratic nomination for the state’s at-large House seat by a 59-41 margin over ’06 candidate Diane Benson. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Don Wright received 5600 votes and will appear on the November ballot.
• AK-AL (R): With 98% of precincts reporting and many absentee ballots still outstanding, Don Young has taken a 145-vote lead over Sean Parnell. This race is heading into “contentious recount territory” real fast.
• FL-08 (D & R): Democrat Alan Grayson upset ’06 nominee Charlie Stuart by a 48-28 margin for the right to take on Ric Keller in November. Keller, meanwhile, barely survived his primary challenge from right-wing radio personality Todd Long, with only 53% of the vote to Long’s 47%.
• FL-09 (D): In a bit of an upset for the DCCC, attorney Bill Mitchell beat out wealthy former Plant City Mayor John Dicks by a 38-33 margin for the nomination against frosh GOP Rep. Gus Bilirakis.
• FL-10 (D): Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth dispatched ’06 nominee and Ron Paul acolyte Samm Simpson by a 47-29 margin for the chance to take on longtime GOP Rep. Bill Young. Max Linn, a self-funding candidate who ran for Governor in 2006 on the Reform ticket, only earned 24% of the vote.
• FL-15 (D & R): Physician Stephen Blythe crushed pilot Paul Rancatore by a 65-35 margin for the Democratic nomination for this open seat. Republicans nominated state Sen. Bill Posey with 77% of the vote, and he seems poised to run away with this race come November.
• FL-16 (R): Pittsburgh Steelers heir Ed Tom Rooney won a tight three-way race by a 37-35-28 margin for the GOP nod to face off with Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney.
• FL-24 (D): Former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas crushed ’06 nominee Clint Curtis by a 72-28 margin. Kosmas will face ethically-challenged GOP Rep. Tom Feeney in November.

RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com

11:50PM: Here are the exact numbers of outstanding sample ballots: 204 in Petersburg and 53 in Wrangell. Fenumiai also expects “between 5,000 and 10,000 questioned ballots to be counted Sept. 5” and as many as “8000-plus” absentee ballots (though it’s likely that this number is smaller rather than larger).

9:41PM: In the comments, ChuckinSeattle makes a great observation on the outstanding votes in Wrangell and Petersburg, where officials ran out of regular ballots and instead allowed voters to use sample ballots — Young won the reported votes in Petersburg by 158-135, and Wrangell by 158-75. So there’s a very good chance that these special ballots will help pad the Donald’s margin. But how will the outstanding absentee ballots break? That could be anyone’s guess.

5:53PM: At this precious time, it’s worth noting who is in charge of oversight at the Alaska Division of Elections. Why, you guessed it: Sean Parnell himself! Let’s hope he doesn’t pull another Katherine Harris here.

5:46PM: Wow, this could go on for another couple of weeks:

But absentee and questioned ballots won’t be counted until Sept. 5. Also, the division of elections ran out of Republican primary ballots in Petersburg and Wrangell late Tuesday afternoon. Republican voters in those Southeast Alaska towns were then allowed to vote using sample ballots, which are valid, but they won’t be counted until the state election review board starts its work on Sept. 8, Fenumiai said.

She said she didn’t know how many people in Wrangell and Petersburg voted using those sample ballots. It’s also unclear how many absentee ballots will be counted in the race. The state mailed out over 16,200 and has received about 7,600 back.

“So there’s still a potential for 8,000-plus of those to come back,” Fenumiai said.

She said some of the absentees were counted Tuesday, but she didn’t know how many. The state won’t be counting any more absentees until Sept. 5, Fenumiai said.

Awesome. This is set to be a long, drawn-out, bitter process.

5:39PM: With just a single precinct (and presumably a bunch of absentee ballots) remaining, Young is now up by 152 votes. Wow. Young may be a crumb-bum, but he’s OUR crumb-bum today.

12:06PM: From the Anchorage Daily News:

Most of the precincts that hadn’t reported election results as of midnight were from rural Alaska villages. Those are “typical Young strongholds,” Anderson said. But Parnell wasn’t convinced Young was going to clean up in the Bush, especially given many rural residents might choose to vote in Tuesday’s Democratic primary instead of Republican contest.

There are also the 16,000 absentee ballots the division of elections mailed out. It has received back 7,600 of them and Gail Fenumiai, director of the state division of elections, said she didn’t know how many of those have been counted. As long as the absentee ballots were postmarked Tuesday, the division will continue to count them for the next 10 days. Questioned ballots will be counted on Sept. 5.

12:00PM ET: Time for a fresh new thread. I know you all want to keep discussing these stunning results!

RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com

12:06PM: I’m awake and alive. Let’s keep this party going over in thread #3.

9:59AM (David): Wow. With 97.9% of all precincts counting, Don Young has taken a 145-vote lead. Let’s pray it holds.

6:27AM: Alright, one more update. Parnell’s lead has shrunk to 142 votes with 89% reporting.

6:04AM: My friends, I am zonked. We’ll sort this mess out in the morning. Goodnight, all!

5:51AM: With just under 86% of precincts reporting, Young has cut the deficit to just 213 votes. In other news, I can’t believe I’m still awake.

5:17AM: Young has inched back a bit closer, trailing Parnell by 263 votes with 84% counted. They don’t come any closer than this.

4:53AM: Parnell gains back a bit of precious ground — he’s now up by 367 votes with 76% counted.

4:47AM: Well, things seem to have screeched to a stop, so I wouldn’t blame anyone for deciding to hit the hay right now. I’m going to give this a few more minutes, myself.

4:28AM: If there was any doubt, just ask the locals:

Most of the uncounted precincts are in rural Alaska villages, where Young has traditionally enjoyed strong support.

4:20AM: Our back of the cocktail napkin analysis reveals that Young will have to run roughly 0.7% better in the two-candidate vote in the outstanding precincts in order to win. Entirely doable.

4:05AM: By “popular demand”, SSP is calling AK-Sen for Ted Stevens and Mark Begich. Our number crunchers are also coloring a gigantic imaginary red check mark beside Ethan Berkowitz’s name.

3:55AM: Getting closer — Parnell is up by just 230 votes. Come on, you old bastard!

3:51AM ET: Time for a fresh new thread.

Polls in Alaska close at 12am Eastern, and we’ll be following the results for the Alaska Senate primary, the Democratic primary for the state’s at-large House seat, and most importantly, the battle between Sean Parnell and Don Young. Stay tuned.

RESULTS: AP (House) | AP (Senate) | AK Division of Elections | ADN.com

3:52AM: Alright, let’s continue the discussion over in thread no. 2.

3:46AM: Uncle Ted is Uncle Ted:

This is still a Republican state. You think they’re going to go for Obama? You think they’re going to go with Schumer who’s against drilling in the arctic and offshore? […]

But this is a Republican state – don’t forget that. And we know why we’re Republican – because the Democrats have opposed our development every inch of the way.

Senator. How are you going to campaign during the trial?

(didn’t answer)

3:28AM: The gap is closing — Young now trails by only 360 votes…

3:23AM: Mush, mighty huskies, mush! We need to see the Coconut Road precincts before daylight!

3:11AM: A source close to the action in Alaska writes in to note (just as many of you have written about in the comments) that many of the Young-friendly precincts in rural Alaska have yet to report. Parnell doesn’t have anything in the bag yet.

2:58AM: Our quickie back-of-the-napkin analysis reveals that Young would have to perform about 1.51% better among the outstanding votes in order to win.

2:54AM: 58% reporting, and Parnell has increased his lead to about 700 votes.

2:38AM: Parnell is now up by over 400 votes.

2:07AM: Young trails by four. Not percent. Four votes. Jebus; there’s no way I’m going to bed tonight.

1:45AM: 37% in, and things are looking a bit hairier for The Donald, with Parnell ahead by 300 votes. With a ton of votes outstanding, though, this lead is hardly safe.

1:21AM: Why is the Dem primary ballot referred to as the “ADL” Party primary, you ask? Answer: typical Republican ballot box b.s.  

1:15AM: Here we go, folks! 31% is in, and Young is up by a nose. Wow. Berkowitz and Stevens are cruising.

1:07AM: A friend on the ground in Alaska tells SSP that AK officials may hold off reporting any numbers until 50% of precincts are counted.

12:38AM: It may take a few minutes before we start to see any results trickle in. They still have to wait for a shipment of ballot boxes stuffed with votes for Don Young to come in from the Coconut Road precincts in Florida, after all.

This is it — primary day in Alaska and Florida. The biggest prize of the day is the AK-AL primary, where scandal-tainted GOP Rep. Don Young is facing a stiff challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. If Young can hold off Parnell, Democrats stand a good chance of taking out Young in November; if the primary goes the other way, this will be a tougher but still doable race. Ethan Berkowitz and Diane Benson will face off for the Democratic nod tonight.

And while few expect indicted Sen. Ted Stevens to lose his primary against beardo Vic Vickers and businessman Dave Cuddy, his performance might give us a better reading on the level of discontent with Stevens among the GOP base in Alaska.

In Florida, the hottest action may be in the 8th District, where Charlie Stuart, Mike Smith, and Alan Grayson are vying for the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Rep. Ric Keller, and the 16th District, where the GOP is battling through a three-way primary to take on Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney.

Care to make any predictions for any of these primaries?

Polls close in Florida at 7pm Eastern, and in Alaska at 12am Eastern. We’ll be rolling with liveblog coverage for both of these states later in the evening, so be sure to check back with us then.

McLaughlin & Associates for the Club For Growth (8/18, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):

Don Young (R-inc): 42 (43)

Sean Parnell (R): 44 (39)

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8 (10)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Parnell takes the lead by a hair — but just a hair. This race just might end up coming down to a photo finish. (H/T: The Politico)

The Club For Brain Growth continues to do everything they can to push the empty suit of Sean Parnell across the finish line, including the release of this new attack ad yesterday that heavily hypes Sarah Palin’s endorsement:

Hiding behind Palin is a smart strategy for the Club, whose leaders have probably never even set foot in Alaska and whose agenda includes stopping the flow of controversial earmarks to the state.

In his corner, Don Young picked up an endorsement of his own this week — from libertarian nutball Rep. Ron Paul:

Paul, the 72-year-old congressman from Texas whose maverick presidential bid drew wide support in Alaska, sent out a letter to his supporters here urging them to vote for Young.

“Don and I have served together in Congress for many years, and I consider him a friend,” Paul wrote in the letter. “Don has been an outspoken voice against environmental extremists over the years and has strongly opposed the types of federal regulatory overreach advocated in the name of environmentalism.”

Strange bedfellows, indeed.

A sampling of some of the latest campaign ads cluttering the airwaves:

Ivan Moore Research (8/9-12, likely voters, 7/18-22 in parens):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (52)

Don Young (R-inc.): 41 (37)

Don Wright (I): 4 (7)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 42 (40)

Sean Parnell (R): 46 (43)

Don Wright (I): 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Just minor noise since July. Let’s check in with the primaries:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 58 (54)

Diane Benson (D): 24 (25)

Don Wright (D?): 3 (5)

(MoE: ?)

Don Young (R-inc.): 46 (46)

Sean Parnell (R): 40 (38)

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 7 (6)

(MoE: ?)

Young continues to hang on by his fingernails, but will this GOP roach be able to survive the Club For Growth’s moneynuke? Let’s hope so, but it could be a tall order. On the bright side for Team Blue, Alaskans are continuing to wake up to headlines and stories like this one calling Gov. Sarah Palin’s ethics (and therefore Lt. Gov. Parnell’s raison d’être) into question.

On the Senate side of the equation, Begich posts another solid lead (7/30-31 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 56 (56)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 39 (35)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Stevens continues to pummel his D-grade primary challengers by a 63-20-7 margin (Stevens-Cuddy-Vickers).