Tag: AK-AL

Ivan Moore is back with a new batch of Alaska polls. Let’s see how the Killer B’s are doing.

Ivan Moore Research (10/3-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 49 (48)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 45 (46)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

And here’s the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (49)

Don Young (R-inc): 42 (44)

So the Senate race remains pretty close (a recent Rasmussen poll had Stevens ahead by a point), and Stevens’ favorable rating has actually improved over recent weeks: from 48-44 to 51-41 today. That’s despite being under trial (albeit one that looks to be something of a gong show on the prosecution’s part).

Interestingly, Moore also finds that the kids are much bigger Stevens fans than their elders: Stevens leads Begich by 52-36 among 18-34 year-olds, while Begich flips those numbers and takes a 55-38 lead among voters aged 65 and up. A bit confounding, but there you go.

In the House race, Ivan has better news for Democrats:

At last, the Berk moves. He started with an ad on TV last Monday which was much more along the lines of what he needed, showing strength and his willingness to stand up and do the right thing. All of sudden, with just a week of that spot airing, his positive is up to a high of 53 percent and his negative has ticked back down. The race is now a 9-point Berkowitz lead.

Meanwhile, Don is nowhere to be seen. No TV, no radio, no campaign really. Just in the last few days, he’s gotten a TV buy in that starts mid-next week, on or around the 15th. If that’s when he comes up, he’ll be giving Ethan a 2-plus week headstart with unopposed media-a death sentence this close to the election.

Now, Moore goes on to say that he never counts Young out (and we shouldn’t either), as evidenced by a massive $700K media buy against him by the DCCC — serious money for a committee that wants to take no chances here.

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (9/17-21, likely voters)

Mark Begich (D): 47

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 47

Don Young (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Fairleigh Dickinson has decided to expand its operations from New Jersey… to Alaska? Well, at any rate, it’s at an opportune time, as they join the pack of pollsters seeing tightening races in Alaska in the post-Palin environment (and as the initial shock of Uncle Ted’s indictment fades). In fact, these numbers quite closely resemble those announced by Ivan Moore earlier today (Begich up 48-46, Berkowitz up 49-44).

Ominously for the incumbents, Stevens pulls down only 67% support from Republicans, and Young is supported by only 50% of Republicans. Both races are also built on glaring gender gaps: for instance, Young is up by 10 among men, while Berkowitz is up by 22 among women.

Ivan Moore Research (9/20-22, likely voters, 8/30-9/2 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (49)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (46)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

And here’s the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49 (54)

Don Young (R-inc): 44 (37)

In other words: these races are far from over. Ivan Moore offers some candid thoughts on why neither Begich or Berkowitz have been able to put their races away:

My thinking is that Begich stayed too long on his cutesy advertising message: He started off in the car wash talking about minimum wage and congressional pay increases, then segued to a charming No Child Left Behind ad featuring his son Jacob. Nice ads, both of them, but the feel is wrong. They don’t set him up as being strong, decisive and dominant, they don’t give him weight and gravitas, they don’t establish him in effective contrast to Stevens, and I think therein lies the fall in numbers. All this while Ted’s growling about how he’s never going to get taken alive.

Begich needs something strong, something that portrays him as someone who can go to DC and kick ass. He needs to rely less on attack ads from the DSCC, which I don’t think are doing him any good, and more on convincing people that he’s got the balls to do this job.

I’m inclined to agree with his note on the DSCC’s ads being counter-productive in this race. Look, you won’t find a bigger booster of the party committees in the blogosphere than us, but the DSCC injecting itself into this contest allows Ted Stevens to frame the race around “enemies of Alaska” trying to “take him down”. This stuff does not play well in Alaska. Just ask the Club For Growth, who learned their lesson the hard way.

And here’s Moore on Berkowitz:

Berkowitz, on the other hand, has a problem. In the last two months, his positive hasn’t moved anywhere and his negative’s gone up nearly ten points. That despite a bunch of pre-primary advertising and a solid win in the primary. He needs to catch fire and he’s not going about it the right way to make it happen. So far, we’ve seen him doing the walking and talking thing on his ads, and having a little love-in on his deck with people hanging on his every word. But for goodness sakes, he’s running against Don Young! Where’s the feistiness, where’s the strength, where’s the toughness, where’s the courage that he had in Juneau to stand up to the powerbrokers and the lobbyists and the corruption? It hasn’t appeared yet, and as a result, the race has narrowed to just five points.

Berkowitz and Begich both have the same problem. Both these races set up perceptually as contests between a couple of intellectual, wishy-washy, weak-kneed, liberal Ds (and that’s not me talking, I’m channeling voter thoughts out there) and a couple of tough, grizzled, possibly corrupt but otherwise experienced old warhorses who know how to get the job done. It’s incumbent on the Ds to show that the perception of them is false, and that they can stand toe-to-toe with Stevens and Young. But time is running out.

Food for thought.

UPDATE: Sarah Palin just declined to endorse Ted Stevens. That can’t help.

Research 2000 for The Great Orange Satan (9/15-17, likely voters, 7/14-16 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 50 (47)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 44 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

I never underestimate the ability of Republicans to rally around their own — especially in Alaska — but things are still looking good for Begich. How about the House race?

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 53 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 39 (40)

(MoE: ±4%)

Looking even better. Kos also tested Berkowitz against Sean Parnell, and found that Berko held a 48-43 lead — a sharp contrast with other recent polls that indicated that Parnell would have an edge in a general election match-up.

But still, I want to extend a warm thank you to Sean Parnell and the Club for Growth for gingerly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. A job well done, you nuts.

Bonus finding: In the Presidential race, McCain has a 55-38 lead over Obama.

Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell won’t be seeking a recount in his primary challenge against Don Young:

“If I thought there was anything wrong, inappropriate or unprofessional about the way this election tally was conducted, I would not only call for a recount, I would demand one. But that is not the case here,” Parnell stated. “While a recount could change the outcome of this exceedingly close election – normal human error being what it is – such a result is unlikely. As such, I do not believe it justifies an expenditure of taxpayer funds.”

Now, other parties can petition the state to push for a recount, so that may still happen. But it won’t be done with Parnell’s blessing.

Parnell and the Club For Growth really let this one slip through their fingers. As Stuart Rothenberg might say (but won’t), they should be ashamed of themselves. Young now is facing the fight of his life against former Democratic state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz.

I’ve heard that we might see a new poll of this race relatively soon, so stay tuned.

It looks like Alaska Dems have got their crumb-bum:

In a close race only decided Wednesday with the final counting of about 350 outstanding absentee and questioned ballots, Young beat Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell by 304 votes.

State election officials will certify the election on Thursday.

Parnell has said he may ask for a recount. Election officials have said a recount of the Aug. 26 vote could take up to 10 days to complete.

The most recent poll of this race, by Ivan Moore Research, shows Democrat Ethan Berkowitz with a big 54-37 lead over Young. A great margin to start out with, but I don’t think we can afford to take this race for granted, given both Young’s tenacity and Palin at the top of the ticket.

Still, this is exactly the match-up we need. It wouldn’t hurt for Parnell to stretch out the uncertainty by forcing a recount, though.

UPDATE: Time to revisit The Donald’s own words:

“If I win this primary, when I win this primary and [Ethan Berkowitz] is my opponent, which is not a given, he’ll be a very good challenge,” Young said. “He’s very qualified for the job. … I just think he’s got more on the ball. Not as much as I, but more than anybody else running.”

UPDATE II: Like a laser, Berkowitz is honing in on those Parnell-LeDoux voters:

“I would like to congratulate Don Young on his victory, but also give particular thanks to Sean Parnell and Gabrielle LeDoux,” Berkowitz said in a statement reaching out to their supporters.

He said both fought to “bring positive change to Alaska’s seat in Congress. I want their supporters to know that they still have that chance. Together, we will finish what your campaigns started,” he said.

The Alaska Division of Elections has just updated the primary results for the state’s at-large House race:

Don Young: 48,006 (45.45%)

Sean Parnell: 47,767 (45.22%)

Gabrielle LeDoux: 9,856 (9.33%)

That looks to be just about it, although the state is still accepting oversees absentee ballots until Wednesday, when the count will be made final.

All told, Young has made a net gain of 21 votes since election night. However, given that either Parnell or ten petitioning voters can request a state-paid recount if the margin is tighter than 0.5% (as is the case here), a recount seems likely.

So far, so good for Ethan Berkowitz.

Update: The Anchorage Daily News writes that “an uncertain number of absentees and questioned ballots remain to be counted”.

Later Update: With another cluster of votes counted, Young’s lead has expanded from 172 to 239 votes.

Great news.  After the Alaska Division of Elections counted the remaining 25,000 absentee and questioned votes, Don Young’s lead is at 129 votes, down from 151.  

With the lead shrinking a bit, it looks like we’re headed to recount territory, but Young is holding on.  This is solid news for Ethan Berkowitz, as Palin and Young’s bitter relationship likely won’t bring the longtime incumbent many coattails.  

http://www.ktuu.com/Global/sto…

Young’s lead over Parnell down to 129 votes

Posted: Sep 5, 2008 09:22 PM EDT

by Jason Lamb

Friday, Sept. 5, 2008

ANCHORAGE, Alaska — After counting absentee and questioned ballots Friday the Alaska Division of Elections released new numbers in the airtight Republican primary race between incumbent Congressman Don young and Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell for Alaska’s U.S. House seat.

Young now leads Parnell by a mere 129 votes.

There were 85,000 votes cast in the race leading up to today’s adjusted tallies.

Elections workers began counting the questioned and absentee ballots Friday morning at the Anchorage office of the Division of Elections.

The most recently counted ballots were checked to ensure they were postmarked correctly. Absentee ballots had to be postmarked by the Aug. 26 primary election day.

Elections officials also made sure that ballots were cast by registered Alaska voters.    

Parnell released a statement earlier Friday, saying, “We understand that over 25,000 ballots were to be counted today. Given that the current difference in votes is so small, anything can happen and we remain cautiously optimistic about the results.”

Despite Friday’s updated results, though, the race is still not over.

Elections officials still must count a few areas that ran out of ballots on primary election day, totaling about 250 votes.    

Absentee ballots cast overseas will not be counted until next week.

Ivan Moore Research polls the Alaska races (8/30-9/2, likely voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 49 (56)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (39)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I believe we could call this the “Tom Reynolds effect” of political scandals: Stevens’ numbers took a nosedive immediately after his indictment, but now that the shock is wearing off (and after his primary win), the numbers have readjusted back to a tight race. The good news is, Mark Begich is running a brilliant campaign, and is doing everything right. Let’s just hope that Stevens isn’t acquitted before election day.

And now for the House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 37 (41)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38 (42)

Sean Parnell (R): 49 (46)

The numbers tell you everything you need to know about this race: we better hope that Young survives his primary. The crumb-bum currently leads by 151 votes, but guess what? There are over 25,000 uncounted absentee and provisional ballots still outstanding. This primary isn’t nearly over by any stretch of the imagination — and the electoral fate of Ethan Berkowitz could rest in the balance.

Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, Alaska is no longer in play, according to the poll. McCain crushes Obama by a 54-35 margin, up from 47-44 in July.

Democrats were sitting pretty in these two races (esp. if Young hangs on in the primary) until McCain picked Gov. Palin.

My short take:

Stevens is done unless he is acquitted.  The outcome of the trial may be important.  I just don’t think there are many coattails in this race.  The House race may be a different story as Palin could pull Young through.

Any thoughts?