Tag: AK-AL

Earlier this month I made a decision to financially support five House candidates through election day. They were Ethan Berkowitz (AK-AL), Paul Carmouche (LA-04), Betsy Markey, Mark Schauer (MI-07) and Eric Massa (NY-29). However, last night’s defeat of Chris Cannon in Utah convinced me that Don Young will not win his primary and Berkowitz will have to face a much stronger Sean Parnell, and that leaves me with a decision to make. Should I stick with Berkowitz or should I walk away?

When I made the above choices, I did so with the intent of helping to flip those seats from red to blue. I have no interest in “pinning the Republicans down”. The DCCC has millions to do that with, I don’t. So, I am looking at the following options.

1. Stick with Ethan through the end (the argument being he can still win no matter).

2. Keep up support and see what happens in August.

3. Find another House candidate.

4. Help Mark Begich, since the house and senate races cover the same turf and media markets.

If I do choose another candidate, I am looking at Dina Titus, Walt Minnick or Gary Trauner. So, I as always, I am seeking your valuable input and I thank you again for your suggestions.

We usually don’t delve too deeply into discussions on this year’s presidential race, but Barack Obama is waging an extraordinary campaign that could have some serious downballot effects, and that’s definitely worth a look when we discuss House and Senate campaigns across the country.

Putting his money where his mouth is, Obama has launched a new 60 second biographical ad in 18 states, including a number of “non-traditional” battlegrounds that are already making the pundit class chatter:

Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

This represents a serious commitment towards expanding the map. States like Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota are supposed to be off-limits for any reasonable Democrat, but Obama — aided by an unprecedented fundraising advantage — is playing by a different set of rules. We could see a very different kind of “trickle-down effect” this fall.

Alaska, for instance, hasn’t been seriously contested since the 1960s, yet Democrats are contesting the state at every level this year with extremely strong candidates (Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz). A number of recent polls — public and private — are showing Obama barely behind McCain in the state. This will make the lives of Begich and Berkowitz easier, as they won’t have to convince as many voters to split their tickets — a challenge, as Cillizza notes, that was too great of a burden for Tony Knowles to overcome in his strong campaign against Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2004.

In Georgia, few believe that GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in peril this year. However, we have seen indications that the Obama campaign plans to mount a massive registration drive to target 500,000 unregistered African-Americans in Georgia. If Democrats can field a strong nominee (say, Jim Martin?), could things get interesting here if Obama is not getting a John Kerry-like beating in the state?

There’s a lot to ponder here, but there’s a lot of potential for a rising Obama tide to lift many boats, especially with the great (but not surprising) news that Obama will not cede the GOP an inch by accepting public financing and abandoning his commanding financial edge. Unlike teasers like John Kerry’s brief ad campaigns in states like Louisiana and Virginia in 2004, Obama can afford to put his money where his mouth is — and that’s exciting.

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MS-Sen-B: Too Cute By Half?

The Wall Street Journal’s Washington Wire has an excellent piece up about a leaked unofficial document entitled “The 2111: An Intern’s Survival Guide” that was authored by interns of scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Don Young in 2007. The whole thing is worth a read if only to get a sense of what it’s like to work with the cantankerous Young and his wife.

One juicy detail is the so-called “A Team” — a group of lobbyists that interns are instructed to give unrestricted access to anyone in the office they like:

The A Team: Rick Alcalde, Colin Chapman, Randy DeLay, Billy Lee Evans, Jack Ferguson, Mike Henry, Duncan Smith, C.J. Zane, and Jay Dickey. These people can talk to whomever they want, normally Mike or Sara. Tell them who it is and transfer over unless they say otherwise. I recommend looking up who they are.

A good recommendation — one that the WSJ followed up on:

Some, like Alcalde, are tied to an ongoing investigation into a $10 million earmark Young secured for Coconut Road in Florida. Alcalde, a transportation lobbyist, worked for a real estate developer who sought the earmark and was a major financial contributor to Young’s campaign. DeLay is the Houston-based lobbyist brother of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, Ferguson is a former chief of staff to Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, who is also under federal investigation. Evans and Dickey are former congressmen, and Henry, Smith, Zane, and Chapman are former Young staffers.

When not bending over backwards for Young’s lobbyist pals, the congressman’s interns work hard to accommodate their boss’ personality quirks:

When he calls put him straight through. If whoever he wants is not her [sic] give it to Mike, if Mike is not here: Sara. You will not get this right, there is no way to. He does not introduce himself, should you realize who he is you will find another way to get it wrong. Rise above it.

Does not like facial piercings.

Keep your hands out of your pockets.

Expects you to open doors for him (particularly tricky when he does not specify where he is going, make a guess)

And Mrs. Young:

Wants Pumpkin Seeds when she says sunflower seeds

Don’t stand in her way-don’t stand anywhere I would suggest. Sit down or hide in the broom cupboard.

Does not tolerate noise from the computers.

Does not like Cologne

Eat what she tells you to eat.

If you sneeze it’s always allergies or pressure changes; stick strong to your case.

Wild.

According to some new polls from Hellenthal (5/6-10), we've got some mixed news coming to us out of Alaska.  First, the good news:

AK-Sen:

Mark Begich (D): 51  

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 44

(MoE: ±6%)

      Now, the tricky stuff:

 AK-AL:

Sean Parnell (R): 37

Don Young (R-inc): 34

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 8

 

Sean Parnell (R): 43

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38

 

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 58

Don Young (R-inc): 38

So apparently, it's not the GOP "brand" itself that is suffering in Alaska; it's the corruption of two particular elected officials.  Luckily, Stevens has no primary challenge (thus far!). [UPDATE: See below.]  As far as Young is concerned . . . I guess we've got to hope he beats Parnell in the primary, or else our chances of taking that House seat are significantly diminished.

UPDATE (James): While the article doesn’t offer any head-to-heads, the same poll tested Stevens’ strength against his GOP primary challenger, Dave Cuddy, and found Stevens ahead by 15%. Weak.

Everybody’s favorite group of Republican purity trolls, the Club for Growth, has weighed in in the primary for the Alaska at-large house race, and they’re supporting the challenger, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

Club President Pat Rooney made the case in a Wall Street Journal commentary today entitled simply “Don Young Embodies What’s Wrong With the GOP:”

Mr. Parnell is a solid conservative who led the fight for lower taxes and spending in the state legislature, and joined Gov. Sarah Palin in pushing for reform in the state. The man he is hoping to replace isn’t economically conservative in the least. Mr. Young is actually a poster child for what has gone wrong with the Republican Party in Washington.

Toomey’s commentary, interestingly, steers clear of the fact that Young is under Justice Dept. investigation for ties to Veco, and is armpit-deep in legal fees. Instead, it just focuses on the great right-wing walkback of 2008: that the GOP brand has failed because Republicans haven’t been conservative enough. They’re addicted to earmarks and subsidies (like the “Bridge to Nowhere” and the Coconut Road interchange in Young’s case), and if we just remove those, the clouds will lift and St. Reagan will return to walk the earth again.

But instead of using his power to steer Republicans down a principled, conservative track, he helped derail the GOP train in 2006. Mr. Young spends taxpayer money so wastefully he could make a liberal Democrat blush.

It’s worth noting this is a convenient way for Club for Growth to claim the scalp of one of the less conservative GOP representatives (for all his bluster and corruption, Young was in fact a vote for minimum wage increase, for SCHIP, and for stem cell research)… even though Young’s impending loss has little to do with bedrock conservatism and more to do with Alaska finally being ready to turn the page on its tradition of corruption.

Unfortunately, a Parnell victory in the primary might make our pickup of AK-AL more difficult in the fall, as Parnell is perceived as ‘clean,’ and an ally of popular GOP governor Sarah Palin. Here’s hoping Don Young can survive CfG intervention in the Aug. 26 primary and forestall his demise until November!

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/12-14, likely voters, 12/3-6 in parens):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 50 (49)

Don Young (R-inc): 40 (42)

(MoE: ±4%)

I really believe that Young is doomed this year, but I fear that he won’t survive his party’s primary.

On the other hand, with no meaningful primary challenge against him, Stevens very likely will go all the way to November:

Mark Begich (D): 48 (47)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

Damn, son.

Another fun fact: Obama only trails McCain by seven points in Alaska, so Begich and Berkowitz won’t be dealing with a John Kerry-like drag at the top of the ticket (Hillary trails by 18 in the same poll).  This is roughly in line with another recent Rasmussen poll, which showed Obama trailing McCain by only five points here.

Alaska could just be a major battleground not only for Berkowitz and Begich, but for Obama, as well.

SSP currently rates AK-AL as “Tossup” and AK-Sen as “Leans Republican“.

Hays Research (5/6-7, Republican voters):

Don Young (R-inc): 45

Sean Parnell (R): 42

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I’m not sold that this is a solid sample of likely GOP primary voters, but the results are still ominous for Young.

Young’s favorables?  A staggering 59% of all respondents (not just Republicans) have an unfavorable opinion of Young, with 30% feeling “very unfavorable” about the crumb-bum congressman.

Meanwhile, Ted Stevens is viewed favorably by 53% of respondents, and unfavorably by 43%.  That’s an improvement over the 49%/46% rating that Stevens held back in March.

Primary: 8/26.

R.A. Dillon, a journalist who writes for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, breaks the news on his blog:

Jake Metcalfe is reportedly going to announce tonight tomorrow that he’s dropping out of the race for the U.S. House of Representatives.

Metcalfe has been under pressure to drop out since his political adviser was linked to websites attacking fellow Democratic candidate Ethan Berkowitz. The adviser, Bill Scannell, resigned last week but never admitted guilt and the websites have remained online.

The controversy over the websites damaged Metcalfe’s reputation, but the real campaign killer was his inability to raise the kind of money necessary to be considered a serious contender. Metcalfe raised less than $50,000 in the first quarter.

Update: KTUU confirms it.  An unfortunate end to a campaign that didn’t have to go down the kind of road that it apparently chose to.  This race now moves to a two-way primary between ’06 candidate Diane Benson and former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz.

Crumb-bum Don Young just posted his first quarter fundraising report, and the numbers aren’t pretty for the embattled incumbent Republican.

In the first three months of 2008, Young raised $131,575 — a sum that wasn’t nearly enough to meet his net expenditures of $443,238.  His once-burgeoning cash-on-hand is now sitting at $604,268.  Will Young have the resources he needs to fend off very competitive primary and general election challenges?

Young’s tab included a long list of legal fees, including $212,752 paid to Akin Gump, $1100 to Holmes Weddle, $24,520 to Tobin O’Connor, and $15,020 to John W. Wolfe.  That’s a lot of scrilla, especially when you consider that Young began 2007 with $1.86 million cash-on-hand, a number that has dwindled in large part due to legal fees such as these.

Hays Research for the Jake Metcalfe campaign (3/10/08 – 3/12/08):

Jake Metcalfe (D): 45%

Don Young (R-inc): 37%

Democratic Nominee: 41%

Don Young (R-inc): 34%

MoE: ±4.9%

Let’s see, counting this poll, that’s one, two, three, four surveys in a row showing crumb-bum Young trailing his Democratic challengers.

At this point, the biggest danger for Democrats lies in Lt. Governor Sean Parnell’s primary challenge against Young.

(Hat-tip: TPM EC)