Tag: IN-03

IN-03: First Poll of the Race

Cooper & Secrest for Michael Montagano (likely voters, 4/24 and 4/26-27):

Michael Montagano (D): 28

Mark Souder (R-inc): 55

(MoE: ±4%)

You might remember Indiana’s 3rd CD as one of those freak races from 2006. An R+16.3 district, Democrat Tom Hayhurst waged a decently-financed campaign that hit hard against Washington corruption and the status quo. In the end, he held incumbent Rep. Mark Souder to a surprisingly close 54-46 result, which is none too shabby in a district that gave Bush 68% in 2004.

This time, the numbers clearly show an uphill fight for Democrat Michael Montagano. But while he may be unknown right now, Montagano has raised a decent amount of money, currently sitting at #14 on SSP’s Cash-on-Hand Competitiveness rankings.

Other findings from the poll offer glimmers of hope: Souder’s job approval is at a mediocre 46% positive/46% negative.  And while it is pushy, 46% agree and 44% disagree with the following statement: “We can’t change the culture of Congress unless we change our Reps; it’s time for Souder to come home and for someone else to represent us.”

This race is one of the longer long shots, but it’s still worth watching.

IN-03: A Sleeper?

$226,409.87

That’s how much the National Republican Congressional Committee spent in the fall of 2006 to protect Republican incumbent Mark Souder in a district that delivered only 31% of its vote to John Kerry in the last Presidential election.  (The DCCC saved its money for other races.)

In that race, Souder faced off with a Fort Wayne city councilman, Tom Hayhurst, who only had to raise $690K to outspend the incumbent’s war chest of $642K.  Souder eventually went on to win that election, but by a much smaller margin than any Republican has any business winning in the 33rd most Republican congressional district in the nation: 54%-46%.

Souder, who seems set in his sluggish fundraising ways, has found himself with yet another quick-moving Democratic challenger: Michael Montagano.  Montagano, a young (26!) lawyer, outraised Souder by a $106K to $84K margin in the second quarter.  That showing has already inspired comparisons between Souder and another lethargic Republican Indiana of yore: John Hostettler (formerly of the 8th District).  According to Roll Call (subscription required), DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen met with Montagano recently and came away impressed:

Souder’s 3rd district is heavily Republican – it gave President Bush 68 percent of its 2004 presidential vote – but even Republicans privately concede that Souder, who came to Congress in the Republican wave of 1994, had too close of a call last year.

[…]

Democrats think Souder could be 2008’s Hostettler.

“Chairman Van Hollen came away impressed from his meeting with Michael Montagano yesterday and believes this seat could be a potential sleeper race in 2008,” DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer said Friday.

With a PVI of R+16.3, Montagano would be serving the fourth-most Republican district in the nation with Democratic representation if elected.  The top three Democrats in that class?  Chet Edwards of Texas, Jim Matheson of Utah, and Gene Taylor of Mississippi.  In other words, if Montagano is to have a shot in a Presidential year, even against a luckluster incumbent, he’s gonna need some mad political skills.  But if Montagano, like Hayhurst before him, could force the NRCC to drop some precious cash to shore up an incumbent in crimson red territory, that will be a victory in and of itself.