Jon Ensign is making Elizabeth Dole look like a political genius. Because while Dole wasn't successful in winning any seats, they had a number of races that they targeted and felt they could be compeitive like Washington, Michigan, New Jersey, Maryland and Minnesota. But I think you are looking at the possiblity that the GOP could be playing total defense.
The way I see it, barring retirements, and I think being very conservative with these estimates that their are 5 potentially competitive Senate races: Montana, Arkansas, New Jersey, South Dakota and Louisiana.
Montana: Some may disagree with this, but like I said I'm being conservative with these predictions. Baucus is doing everything right and is very well positioned to win another term. But I'm not ready to declare him safe yet. Its still Montana in a presidential year and while Mike Lange certainly has a temper the GOP could've done worse.
Arkansas: This race became a lot more safe with Huckabee's performance at the Straw poll. Had he finished fourth or worse he would've dropped out. I think he's the only credible possible opponent for Pryor. Having said that there's still the possibility this doesn't jumpstart his presidential campaign and he does still drop out. Even then I think Pryor could win, but it would be a helluva race.
New Jersey: Being conservative with the estimates is the main reason to put this here. There's no signs this will be a competitive race, but Lautenberg is old and has shoddy approval ratings. But he doesn't look to face any real competition at this point.
South Dakota: This race is just totally up in the air. All I'll say is that unless Johnson retires I don't see this becoming competitive. Rounds doesn't seem to be showing much interest in the race right now, and none of these second-tier cndidates stand a chance.
Louisiana: This was the race everyone expected to be competitive, and smart money says it probably still will be. But, no Republican wants to do it. Baker ruled it out, and Kennedy may still jump in but it'll be bizarre to see Kennedy give his victory speech one night, and that next morning switch parties and announce he will challenge Landrieu, which is basically what he would have to do.