Swing State Project

• CO-Sen: 50% is a totally arbitrary mark in the Colorado caucus straw poll, and doesn’t mean anything from a legal perspective, but Andrew Romanoff’s total has fallen below the magic mark as ballots keep getting counted. Romanoff’s at 49.9% to Michael Bennet’s 41.9% with 20 precincts left to be counted, which, in the battle of perceptions, takes a tiny bit of shiny luster off his victory.

• IA-Gov: Actually, maybe the departure of Jonathan Narcisse from the Democratic gubernatorial primary isn’t the good news for Chet Culver that it originally seemed. The gadflyish Narcisse has decided to run as an independent instead, and if he a) gets on the ballot and b) gets any votes, it seems likelier they might come from Culver’s column than that of the GOP nominee (although he does talk a lot of shrinking government, so who knows).

• MD-Gov: Prince George’s Co. Exec Wayne Curry has occasionally flirted publicly with the idea of a challenge to Martin O’Malley in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and he’s popping up with the idea again today. (O’Malley already faces a challenge from the right in the primary from former state Del. George Owings). Meanwhile, Dems are launching some pre-emptive salvos at possible GOP candidate Bob Ehrlich, accusing him of using employees at his law firm to do campaign work for him.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Apparently there’s been some behind-the-scenes pressure on ex-Rep. Rick Lazio to get out of the GOP governor’s primary, where he’s aroused little enthusiasm despite having the field to himself for months, and into the Senate race instead — to clear the way for ostensibly prized recruit Steve Levy, the Suffolk Co. Exec who appears set to change parties and run as a Republican. Lazio says no way is he switching, though, assailing Levy as a liberal Democrat who called the stimulus package “manna from heaven.”

• AZ-03: The John McCain/J.D. Hayworth primary fight is turning into one of the main fracture lines in the primary further down the ballot to replace retiring GOP Rep. John Shadegg. Ex-state Sen. Jim Waring and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker have both endorsed McCain, while former state Rep. Sam Crump backs Hayworth. Former state Sen. Pamela Gorman says she isn’t getting involved.

• GA-07: Looks like GOP state Rep. Clay Cox is sitting in the catbird’s seat, as far as replacing retiring Rep. John Linder. Not only did his main rival, state Sen. Don Balfour, drop out of the race (and out of politics altogether) yesterday, leaving Cox alone in the field, but now state Sen. David Shafer (who many initially expected to run to succeed Linder) gave Cox his endorsement.

• ID-01: This is terribly disappointing… ex-Rep. Bill Sali called a big press conference today, just before Idaho’s filing deadline, to announce something, hopefully another kamikaze run to get his House seat back. (Or why stop there? Why not a primary run against Mike Crapo?) Unfortunately, it was just to endorse state Rep. Raul Labrador in the primary.

• MA-09: Is Stephen Lynch opening himself up to a primary challenge? Despite meeting personally with President Obama, he says that he is “firmly a ‘no’ vote” on healthcare reform. Lynch has always received strong support from labor, but with unions whipping this vote with unusual fervor, perhaps things might change on that front. (D) Here’s one possible explanation for Lynch mugging for the cameras today… Lynch may be thinking about a challenge to Scott Brown in 2012; he sorta-deflected questions on that front.

• NC-08: Tim d’Annunzio, the self-funding Republican who gets treated as the frontrunner in the GOP field to challenge freshman Rep. Larry Kissell, just keeps on pulling hot-headed stunts that threaten his status as a credible candidate. D’Annunzio got into a physical confrontation with Republican state Rep. Justin Burr (no punching, just lots of poking) and then issued a press release attacking the state party chair, Tom Fetzer, for “coordinated personal attacks” in the wake of the incident.

• NY-24: Speaking of strategically-challenged “no” votes, it looks like the Working Families Party isn’t bluffing on its threats to cut loose Rep. Mike Arcuri. They’re actively recruiting a challenger to run against him on their own ballot line, and the SEIU is supportive of the effort.

• Fundraising: Here’s a really interesting chart, which plots the DW/Nominate scores (i.e. ideological position) of Congress members against what sectors of the economy their contributions come from. The results aren’t too surprising: motion pictures, professors, printing and publishing, public schools, and lawyers lean the most left (darned cultural elite!) and oil and gas, auto dealers, construction, energy production, and agriculture lean most right. Health care and real estate seem to be smack in the middle.

Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/15-17, likely voters, 8/31-9/2/2009 in parens):

Rand Paul (R): 40 (25)

Trey Grayson (R): 28 (40)

Other: 14 (18)

Undecided: 18 (17)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 47 (37)

Jack Conway (D): 31 (30)

Other: 8 (15)

Undecided: 14 (18)

(MoE: ±5%)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (42)

Rand Paul (R): 46 (37)

Undecided: 17 (21)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 38 (41)

Trey Grayson (R): 43 (45)

Undecided: 19 (14)

Jack Conway (D): 39 (41)

Rand Paul (R): 45 (37)

Undecided: 16 (22)

Jack Conway (D): 36 (40)

Trey Grayson (R): 44 (46)

Undecided: 20 (14)

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 doesn’t have very appealing numbers out of the Kentucky Senate race, where, over the last half a year, Rand Paul seems to have strengthened his position considerably. Very little else has changed — in the Dem primary, Dan Mongiardo leads Jack Conway by about the same a bigger margin, while Mongiardo and Conway both poll about the same as before vis-a-vis Trey Grayson — but Paul has shot into the lead in the GOP primary. And Paul is now overperforming Grayson in relation to the Dems, instead of losing to them, as was the case in September.

Color me a little puzzled; the libertarian-minded Paul just seems to have the wrong profile for Kentucky, an Appalachian-flavored state that’s socially conservative and likes its earmarks. The SurveyUSA poll of a few weeks ago seemed to promise a competitive race in Kentucky, but it was based on a Generic D/R question. The problem seems to be that Paul is by no means a Generic Republican, and Grayson hasn’t seemed to be able to find a way to make a case on just how weird Paul is (while the Dems have been mostly focused on walloping each other). Let’s hope the Dems’ May 18 nominee will fare a little better on that front.

RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen

For this diary, the South Atlantic is defined as South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.  This area is one of the fastest growing areas in the nation in regards to population growth.  50 years ago the Democratic party dominated this region.  Today?  Well, it’s just complicated.  I will review the results of certain general election results over the last 50 years.

US House Representation Realignment

After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats).  I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.

After each US House election, The South Atlantic

1960:  23(D), 1(R)

1964:  25(D), 3(R)

1966:  22(D), 6(R)

1972:  24(D), 7(R)

1978:  25(D), 6(R)

1980:  22(D), 9(R)

1982:  25(D), 10(R)

1990:  22(D), 13(R)

1992:  20(D), 20(R)

1994:  14(D), 26(R)

2000:  13(D), 27(R)

2002:  14(D), 30(R)

2006:  17(D), 27(R)

2008:  18(D), 26(R)

50 years ago, the Republicans literally had no strength in this area.  With the introduction of the civil rights era, the Republicans made some modest gains.  However, the gains were very minimal until the 1992 election of Bill Clinton.  The Contract with (on) America resonated well with the South Atlantic, sweeping in Republicans on record pace.  The Democrats were fairly decimated as a result.  However, with the Bush Administration policies, this area became more skeptical of the Republicans.  There were some Democratic gains, but not as much as other regions in the US.

After each US Senate election, The South Atlantic

1960:  6(D), 0(R)

1964:  5(D), 1(R)

1966:  5(D), 1(R)

1972:  4(D), 2(R)

1978:  5(D), 1(R)

1980:  3(D), 3(R)

1982:  3(D), 3(R)

1990:  4(D), 2(R)

1992:  3(D), 3(R)

1994:  3(D), 3(R)

2000:  5(D), 1(R)

2002:  4(D), 2(R)

2006:  1(D), 5(R)

2008:  1(D), 5(R)

The Democrats had firm control in 1960.  The first Republican held seat in this region resulted from Strom Thurmond’s conversion to a Republican.  In 1980, on the coattails of the Reagan Revolution, the Republicans had a split with the Democrats.  In 2000, with Zell Miller having been appointed in 1999 as the replacement for Corvedell and Bill Nelson’s victory over McCollum, the Democrats again had firm control.  However, over the next few cycles the Democrats lost a seat in SC (Hollings retirement), 2 seats in GA (Miller’s retirement, Cleland’s defeat to Chambliss), and 1 seat in FL (Graham’s retirement).  The sole Democrat representing this region is Bill Nelson, a moderate Democrat.

Conclusions

The former Dixicrats are reluctant to support Democratic candidates.  However, certain Blue Dog Democrats are found appealing to these socially conservtive voters.  This region will support Blue Dogs, evident by Boyd (FL-2), Barrow (GA-12), Bishop (GA-2), Marshall (GA-8), and Scott (GA-13).  The area also contains several majority-African American districts which will be in the hands of Democrats for many years.  However, I believe that the Democrats can still build on these numbers in future years.  Florida is still seeing population growth, and Georgia is a fast growing state too.  Even South Carolina will gain a district from the 2010 Census.  I honestly believe that while the Republicans should hold a mild advantage, the Democrats should be able to obtain a split in the Senate and the House.  We haven’t reached our limit here at all.  Promoting moderate and Blue Dog Democrats in areas controlled by Republicans could help, along with an emphasis on Senior issues, especially in Florida.

Jonathan Narcisse told the Des Moines Register’s Kathie Obradovich yesterday that he won’t run against Governor Chet Culver in the Democratic primary. He plans to register for the ballot as an independent candidate. Narcisse served a term on the Des Moines School board is the publisher of several African-American and Latino-oriented publications. He also appears regularly on some talk radio programs in Iowa. His political views are an unusual blend, as you can see from reading his manifesto, An Iowa Worth Fighting For. Narcisse advocates some ideas commonly associated with Republican candidates (big reductions in corporate and property taxes and the size of government), as well as others usually heard on the political left (e.g. supporting living wage legislation and reform of drug laws and sentencing).

Obradovich reported yesterday,

Narcisse says he collected enough signatures to get on the ballot (the deadline is Friday), but he said his changed his mind about filing based on what he heard from Iowans as he’s traveled around the state.  “They really want an independent voice,” he says, someone not tied to either party.

I asked Narcisse if he would be willing to release the signatures, because otherwise people will be skeptical that he was able to collect them. He didn’t outright refuse but he also didn’t say he would release them. He said he’s used to dealing with skepticism from the media but he’s focused on making his case to voters around the state.  But if he’s going to say he’s collected them, he should prove it.

Obradovich posted a press release from Narcisse, which explained his decision and thanked the volunteers who “helped me obtain the signatures that I needed to be on the June 8th primary ballot.”

Ever since Narcisse announced plans late last month to run for governor as a Democrat, many political observers have privately predicted that he would not be able to meet the signature requirements. Narcisse can speak knowledgeably about public policy for hours, but his campaign manager is a management consultant and former teacher with no previous political experience. Democrats seeking statewide office in Iowa had to submit more than 4,000 total signatures (0.5 percent of the party’s statewide vote in the 2008 presidential election), including at least 1 percent of the party’s vote total in that election in at least 10 counties. (Statewide Republican candidates needed to meet the same percentage targets, but that worked out to fewer total signatures because Barack Obama did so much better than John McCain in Iowa.)

A strong statewide organization could collect more than 4,000 signatures on short order; Republican candidate Rob Gettemy’s campaign collected 3,000 in the second Congressional district in just two weeks. I agree with Obradovich that observers will remain skeptical about Narcisse’s campaign if he doesn’t release his nominating petitions. Republican blogger Craig Robinson writes today that Narcisse’s story has shifted dramatically in the last three days. He concludes, “The inability for Narcisse to get on the Democratic primary ballot is a deadly blow to any credibility he may have had as a candidate.”

Ed Fallon had been recruiting some Democrat other than Narcisse to challenge Culver, but nothing materialized. In my opinion, Culver didn’t deserve a primary challenger despite the many complaints you hear about him from Iowa Democrats.

AZ-Sen: Another Democrat, businesswoman Nan Stockholm Walden, is taking a look at the Arizona Senate race. Walden, a former staffer for Bill Bradley and Pat Moynihan, seems like she might be able to bring a good chunk of her own cash to the table (at the very least, she seems well-connected). Right now, the highest-profile Dem in race is Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman.

NV-Sen: Coming home to roost? One of those DOJ subpoenas in the investigation of John Ensign has landed on the doorstep of the NRSC. Ensign, of course, was chair of the organization during its disastrous 2008-08 campaign cycle.

PA-Sen: Reid Wilson takes a look at the divergent poll numbers between Susquehanna (Toomey +6) and Research 2000 (Specter +6). Susquehanna relies on voter lists and doesn’t weight; R2K uses random-digit dialing and does weight.

IA-Gov: I guess this is a little bit of good news for Gov. Chet Culver – the gadflyish Jonathan Narcisse won’t challenge him in the Democratic primary.

NY-Gov: I guess we should tag all David Paterson stories as “News of the Weird.” Yesterday, he bizarrely claimed that he was the NYT’s source for the exceptionally damaging stories about his administration which have led to the resignation of many top staffers and many, many calls for his resignation. Now the Times is saying “not so” – that Paterson was most definitely not their source. So, so strange.

GA-07: GOP state Sen. Don Balfour, who was considered a leading contender for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Rep. John Linder, has ended his campaign. Balfour also indicated that he won’t seek re-election to the state Senate. (JL)

PA-07: Heh – GOPer Pat Meehan’s motion to dismiss Dem Bryan Lentz’s challenge to his ballot petition signatures was rendered moot almost the instant after he filed it. Meehan tried to claim that Lentz hadn’t followed proper court procedures in serving him with notice of the challenge, but the court issued its own order saying that Lentz still has plenty of time to do so. Whoops.

IL-Lt. Gov: Gov. Pat Quinn apparently has a preferred choice for a running mate, state Sen. Susan Garrett, who as luck would have it is not up for re-election herself this fall. The IL Dem state party will pick a replacement on March 27th.

Healthcare: Greg Sargent has a source at the AFL-CIO who says that leaders of the umbrella organization’s member unions will be making “direct appeals” to the following Dems, implicitly backed up by the threat of a primary or third-party challenges:

Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Daniel Lipinski, Stephen Lynch, Michael Michaud, James Oberstar, Steve Dreihaus, Charlie Wilson, Marcy Kaptur, John Boccieri, Zack Space, Tom Perriello, Jason Altmire, Christopher Carney, Paul Kanjorski, Tim Holden, Jerry Costello, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Kathy Dahlkemper

Polltopia: Speaking of voter lists (see PA-Sen item above), Harry Enten at Pollster.com chides the NYT for claiming that it doesn’t publish polls which sample from voter lists (like that Chamber of Commerce healthcare poll). Yet on the very same day it made that claim, the Times cited the results of the recent CA-Sen Field poll in another article… and Field uses, well, voter lists. At SSP, we have a simpler rule: Don’t publish concern troll bullshit.

NRCC: Classic – the NRCC is touting ads its running against Dems undecided on healthcare, but they are spending just $3,900 per district. That gets you, what, a 30-second spot at 3am on the Smithsonian Channel, sandwiched between infomercials for the Flowbee and the Ronco Showtime Rotisserie? Props to the Hotline for unmasking this (typical) chicanery.

Passings: Memphis Rep. Steve Cohen gave a tribute yesterday on the floor of the House to the life of SSP hero and Big Star frontman Alex Chilton, who sadly passed away on Wednesday. (JL)

Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/15-17, likely voters, 11/16-18/2009 in parens):

Charlie Crist (R): 30 (47)

Marco Rubio (R): 58 (37)

Undecided: 12 (16)

(MoE: ±5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 36 (33)

Charlie Crist (R): 45 (50)

Undecided: 19 (17)

Kendrick Meek (D): 40 (38)

Marco Rubio (R): 41 (30)

Undecided: 19 (32)

(MoE: ±4%)

Another poll, another dose of heartbreak for Charlie Crist, who entered this race a year ago with a million bucks in his wallet and a pocketful of dreams. What’s especially notable is that this poll was taken in the immediate aftermath of Crist’s first real counter-attack on Rubio, which centered specifically around Rubio’s use of Florida Republican Party credit cards for personal expenses, including some ridiculous allegations of back waxing. It doesn’t look like Crist’s new aggressive posture has paid his campaign any immediate dividends.

And how about a journey into the hypothetical?

Kendrick Meek (D): 24

Charlie Crist (D): 21

Undecided: 55

(MoE: ±5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 27 (31)

Marco Rubio (R): 32 (27)

Charlie Crist (I): 29 (32)

Undecided: 12 (10)

Charlie Crist (D): 38 (45)

Marco Rubio (R): 40 (34)

Undecided: 22 (21)

(MoE: ±4%)

An indie run continues to look like the best bet for Crist, turning a certain defeat into a game of jump ball for all three candidates.

And, finally, the gubernatorial race:

Bill McCollum (R): 47 (45)

Paula Dockery (R): 9 (9)

Undecided: 44 (46)

(MoE: ±5%)

Alex Sink (D): 35 (33)

Bill McCollum (R): 41 (35)

Undecided: 24 (32)

Alex Sink (D): 37 (35)

Paula Dockery (R): 15 (13)

Undecided: 48 (52)

(MoE: ±4%)

This is a slightly more optimistic take than PPP’s poll last week, which had Sink trailing by 13 points. As we’ve said before, there are certain things that Sink can do right now to improve her campaign, but I hope that she has an effective paid media team on contract.

It has been quite some time since I’ve approached the netroots community to say this is the candidate that you need to support.  I try to be modest and about my capacities and try to only make asks of my friends when I’m sure it’s worth it … and my friend Manan Trivedi is worth it.

He’s running for Congress in Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional District, a gerrymandered monster of a district stretching from Reading to Lower Merion, cobbled together to create a slightly R-leaning district in Philadelphia’s western suburbs which Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) has held since the district was created in 2002.  Dan Wofford tried to best him in 2002, and I’m sure you remember Lois Murphy’s nail-biter challenges in 2004 and 2006.  It has always been a tight district, which is why Jim Gerlach had announced he was leaving it to run for Governor last year — but with minimal support there, he had no choice but to run for this office again, with it now being clear to everyone that his heart isn’t in this seat anymore.

This is our year.  Manan Trivedi is the candidate.

Manan — and I really should be calling him “Dr. Trivedi,” since he is one, but we’ve become friendly over the past few months — grew up in Berks County, where his Indian immigrant parents worked at the Red Cheek apple juice factory.  He attended college and med school at Boston University, then joined the United States Navy, where served as the battalion surgeon for a Marine Corps infantry battalion from 2001-03, commanding a medical team that cared for over 1,200 of our troops and hundreds of Iraqi civilians as part of the first ground forces entering Iraq.

For his service, Lt. Commander Trivedi earned the Combat Action Ribbon, the Navy Commendation Medal, and his unit was awarded the Presidential Unit Citation.

After his service in Iraq, Manan earned a Masters in health policy at UCLA. He drew on his experience with combat medicine to become one of the early researchers to investigate the unique mental health issues affecting our troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. Trivedi went on to serve as health policy advisor to the Navy Surgeon General and was an Assistant Professor of Medicine at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences.  He also served as a health policy advisor to the Obama for America campaign.  Manan is now back home in Reading, where he’s a board-certified internal medicine doctor at Reading Hospital.

That’s all background.  Let me tell you a story.

A few months ago a mutual friend encouraged Manan and I to meet, and we sat down for breakfast across the street from my office.  At this point — and this is not to brag but for context — I do meet with candidates fairly frequently, and they all seem to want to know the answers to two questions: (1) how can I raise money from the Netroots?, and (2) how can I raise money from your law firm?

Manan was different.  We spent the whole time in full wonk mode, talking about things Congress should be doing as part of the next wave of health care reform to increase the number of primary care doctors in America and the quality of that care.  I hope his genuineness and humility comes across in this early campaign video:

And make no mistake, he believes in the things we do — on health care, education, on energy and issues of war and peace.  And he is not shy.  Late last week, when 25 of 26 leading Democratic House challengers declined to answer whether they’d vote for the Senate bill, Manan said yes:

Out of the more than two dozen Democratic challengers and open-seat House candidates, only 10 commented for this story. Eight outright declined to comment. Eight more didn’t respond to several days’ worth of requests via phone and e-mail.

The only candidate to say unequivocally that he would support the Senate bill, which could be voted on in the House next week, is a primary-care physician running to face Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.). Dr. Manan Trivedi said it’s important to get the ball rolling on reconciliation. “The answer is yes,” he said flatly. That was about as direct as the answers got…

Among those declining to respond was his primary opponent, Doug Pike.  You may have met Doug at Netroots Nation last year, and he’s not like evil or anything … but he’s not the right guy, either, for a variety of reasons.

Basically, Pike is someone who at the age of 59 had decided to use his accumulated wealth and move into the 6th District for Congress, where he’s largely self-financing this campaign.  (His father, Otis Pike, was a Congressman from New York.)  Before that, his main job was as an editorial writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer, where he wrote some weird things — endorsing St. Rep. Stephen Freind, whom he acknowledged as “a zealous opponent of abortion” but stated that some issues were “more important” at the height of the Gov. Casey era.  

The other reason you might have heard of Pike is, ironically, the reason you aren’t hearing from Pike.  His campaign manager was banned from DailyKos and here last September for sockpuppetry employed to bash Trivedi at the start of Trivedi’s campaign.  The campaign declined numerous opportunities to apologize, to this day.

But I want to get back to the positives, because they’re so strong: with all apologies to my chosen profession in law, it’s doctors we need more of in Congress.  And, honestly, we need more South Asians in Congress as well — it’s about time.  

Those who meet Trivedi love him.  That’s why the Chester and Montgomery County Democrats — the two counties in the party which have endorsed so far — endorsed Manan Trivedi.  Several incumbents who had backed Pike when he was the only declared candidate either declared neutral or flipped to Trivedi altogether, including liberal St. Rep. Josh Shapiro’s hopping off the Pike train this morning.  And momentum is building.  Here’s some of what he said at that Chester County endorsement meeting:

(Another good campaign speech here.)  But Dr. Manan Trivedi doesn’t have Doug Pike’s million-dollar bank account.  He needs each of us.

Here’s my goal for today.  I want to add 100 new contributors to Trivedi for Congress.  In addition, I will match the first $500 you contribute, dollar for dollar.  I have established a new ActBlue page, Change We Need, to help Manan and other worthy challengers down the line.

Do you remember back when this community was so eager to get involved in Democratic primaries, in order to elect more and better Democrats?  Manan Trivedi is both, and it’s time for us to get into this primary.  All of us.  Can you help with $5, $10, $25 or more?

I have met a lot of candidates over the past year, and I am telling you this right now: Manan Trivedi deserves all the help you can give.  

Rep. Stephen Lynch, in MA-9, voted for the health care bill in November but announced today that he’s voting against the new compromise bill — supposedly from the LEFT.

That is, he says he won’t back the new bill because it’s weaker than the original House bill, doesn’t do enough to constrain insurance companies and doesn’t allow for a public option.  In other words, we’re supposed to believe Lynch is to the left of Kucinich on this issue.  This is wildly implausible.  Lynch is a DINO, and his opposition to the bill is from the right.  Who does he think he is fooling?

My larger question is: Is there any possibility of a labor-backed primary opponent for Lynch — from the actual left?  MA-09 (South Boston) is not the bluest of MA districts, but my hunch is that labor is pretty strong there.  It might be important for the larger project of keeping wavering “Yes” votes in line on this bill for some plausible primary opponent to at least begin to get talked about for Lynch.

The filing deadline in MA is not until 6/1…

Despite pressure from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats, Representative Stephen F. Lynch of South Boston said today that he will vote against President Obama’s health care overhaul when it comes to the House floor, contending that it doesn’t put enough pressure on insurance companies to reduce costs.

The move is a switch for Lynch, who voted in favor of the House health care bill in November. But he said the current version, which was approved by the Senate, is not as strong as that measure.

— http://blogcabin.boston.com/mt…

Lynch goes on to criticize the raw deal Massachusetts gets financially from the bill because it’s already so far ahead of other states in covering the uninsured, but the main line of his critique is that this bill is weaker than the House bill (not surprising, since he has to justify his vote switch).

This is not the first time a conservative Democrat has characterized skepticism about HCR as being from the left when it is actually from the right.  (Isn’t that the trick Massa tried to pull before his spectacular recent flameout?)

Field Poll (pdf) (3/9-15, likely voters, 1/5-17 in parentheses):

Tom Campbell (R): 28 (30)

Carly Fiorina (R): 22 (25)

Chuck DeVore (R): 9 (6)

Undecided: 41 (39)

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (48)

Tom Campbell (R): 44 (38)

Undecided: 13 (14)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (50)

Carly Fiorina (R): 44 (35)

Undecided: 11 (15)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (51)

Chuck DeVore (R): 41 (34)

Undecided: 14 (15)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Shit just got real.

• NV-Sen: It’s starting to look like the investigation into John Ensign may really take off. The DOJ is actually serving subpoenas to at least six different Las Vegas area businesses, as they expand a criminal probe into the tangle of quid pro quos that arose as Ensign tried to find lobbying work for cuckolded friend Doug Hampton.

• CA-Gov: Usually politicians wait to say this kind of thing privately instead of publicly, but maybe Jerry Brown, as is his way, is engaged in some sort of Jedi mind trick. Brown openly encouraged his union allies to start spending now in the governor’s race and to go on the attack against likely GOP opponent Meg Whitman, so that he can stay “the nice guy” in the race.

• MI-Gov: Chris Cillizza has access to a new poll from Inside Michigan Politics/Marketing Resource Group, which looks at the Republican primary in the Michigan Governor’s race. It’s more evidence that businessman Rick Snyder’s splashy spending and catchy “one tough nerd” ad has turned this into a real three-way race. The poll finds AG Mike Cox and Rep. Peter Hoekstra tied at 21, with Snyder right there at 20. Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard trails, at 10.

• NY-Gov: Guess who doesn’t like the idea of running a Democrat for the Republican nomination for Governor (even if NY GOP head Ed Cox seems to think it’s the best idea since sliced bread)? The RNC has threatened not to put money into New York races (and note that says “races,” not just the Gov’s race) if Democratic Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy winds up the GOP’s nominee. Meanwhile, David Paterson‘s case just gets weirder and weirder, as now he’s saying he himself was the anonymous source for the NYT story on his interceding on his aide’s behalf.

• WY-Gov: It’s still not clear that state Sen. Mike Massie is going to run for Governor on the Democratic side, but it is looking like he’s planning to move up. He confirmed he won’t run for his Senate seat again, although he’s interested in Superintendent of Public Education as well as Governor.

• NY-24: Chalk Rep. Mike Arcuri up as a “no” vote on health care reform. This comes despite the threat of losing the Working Families Party line in November, which will probably imperil his chances of re-election more so than any Republican votes he might pick up (which will probably equal zero, regardless of how he might vote on HCR).

• NY-29: Corning mayor Tom Reed has a bright idea on how to pay for the special election caused by Eric Massa’s resignation: make Massa pay for it, out of the money in his campaign fund (which is roughly equal to the actual cost of holding the election). Not that it’s going to happen, but it raises an interesting question: is there a legal mechanism for Massa to write a $644K check to the state of New York out of his account?

• PA-12 (pdf): There’s a second poll of the 12th, from a slightly more established pollster (although one who still requires a grain or two of salt): Republican pollster Susquehanna. Their numbers are pretty close to the weird robopoll from yesterday, finding Democrat Mark Critz leading Republican Tim Burns 36-31. Bad news for Dems: by a 49/44 margin, voters want to turn away from a candidate who, in the John Murtha tradition, supports earmarks for the district. Good news for the Dems: of the undecideds, 67% are Democrats, meaning that Critz has more room to grow.

• VA-11: Rich guy Keith Fimian is up with his first radio ad in the 11th, attacking Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly for saying, in reference to the stimulus, “I want to be there with all four paws and snout in the trough.” Um, yeah… except Connolly was saying that long after the stimulus passage, making fun of Eric Cantor’s hypocrisy on the issue. Too bad snark tags don’t translate to radio very well.

• NY-Something: Former Republican Lt. Governor, and then unsuccessful former health care industry spokesbot, Betsy McCaughey, apparently is looking for a way into the Republican field in one of the various statewide races in New York; she’s been polling both races. (There’s one small wrinkle: she’s still registered as a Democrat, and voted in the 2009 Democratic primary. She became a Dem after George Pataki dropped her from his 1998 ticket, and tried to run against Pataki as a Dem instead.)

• Votes: After all the sturm and drang surrounding the cloture vote, the final vote on the Senate jobs bill was pretty uninteresting, with 11 different GOPers crossing the aisle to vote for it: Alexander, Bond, Brown, Burr, Cochran, Collins, Inhofe, LeMieux, Murkowski, Snowe, and Voinovich.

• WATN?: A must-read editorial in today’s WaPo comes from ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, whose despite her two years in the House looms large in history as the decisive vote on the 1993 Clinton budget, which is usually assigned as the reason for her loss in 1994. She pushes back against the mind-numbing Beltway conventional wisdom that your electoral survival depends on bucking the party line on the tough votes, and seems to be weighing on the minds of members like the aforementioned Mike Arcuri. A wave is a wave, and it takes out those in unsafe districts who vote for or vote against; the key is to not let the wave become a wave in the first place:

Votes like this are never a zero-sum game…. While it is easy to say my balanced-budget vote cost me reelection, that assumes the line of history that followed the bill’s passage. Had I voted against it, the bill wouldn’t have passed, the Republican opposition would have been emboldened, the Clinton presidency would have moved into a tailspin . . . and all of this could have just as easily led to my undoing.

Simply put, you could be Margolies-Mezvinskied whether you vote with or against President Obama. You will be assailed no matter how you vote this week. And this job isn’t supposed to be easy. So cast the vote that you won’t regret in 18 years.

There’s still one strange contention in her piece: that “I was in the country’s most Republican district represented by a Democrat.” Sorry, not even close: that district would’ve been R+4 at the time, based on its 1988 and 1992 results, good for 51st most Republican held by a Democrat. Even though she famously got bounced out in 1994, the 13th was promptly back in Democratic hands in 1998, courtesy of Joe Hoeffel (and now, thanks to trends in the Philly suburbs and thanks to redistricting, it’s a safe Dem district). The most Republican district held by a Dem in 1993? FL-01, then held by Earl Hutto, at R+20. (Hutto retired in 1994, giving way to… wait for it… Joe Scarborough.)