Swing State Project

CA-Sen: Barack Obama will attend a joint fundraiser for the DNC and Barbara Boxer’s re-election campaign in April. More details on the event are not yet available, but I’m guessing it won’t take place on a blimp.

KY-Sen: Mmm, I could eat cat fud for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The Politico has a new piece on the increasing panic among Kentucky and DC establishment Republicans over the possibility that Rand Paul may win the Senate primary against Mitch McConnell’s protege Trey Grayson. Dick Cheney’s inner circle is apparently sounding the alarm bells in private emails to neo-con leaders, warning that “Rand Paul is NOT one of us”. It’s funny, because that’s exactly why he’s winning!

PA-Gov: Democrat Dan Onorato has abruptly reversed course on his challenge to Joe Hoeffel’s ballot signatures. Onorato’s stated reasons for pulling the plug on the challenge can only be described as oblique.

CO-04: State GOP Rep. Cory Gardner got a double-dose of good news this week. Not only did he convincingly win the GOP precinct caucuses on Tuesday night, but his teabaggish primary challenger, ex-Ft. Collins Councilor Diggs Brown, dropped out of the race and endorsed him.

MI-01: The National Organization for Women says that it will mobilize its Michigan chapters to support Dem Rep. Bart Stupak’s primary challenger, Charlevoix County Commissioner Connie Saltonstall. NOW President Terry O’Neill says that defeating Stupak will be her organization’s “highest priority”.

NY-29: The 29th District’s eight county Democratic chairs plan to meet on either March 27 or 29 to interview at least six potential candidates who are interested in running in the still-to-be-scheduled special election to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Eric Massa. If they follow the same script used last year in the special election to replace Kirsten Gillibrand, the final selection should come almost immediately after the interview process.

PA-12: I don’t know what it is about this district that has attracted so many fly by night pollsters in recent years, but a new automated polling group, We Ask America, has emerged to cough up a survey showing Democrat Mark Critz ahead of Republican Tim Burns by a 39-35 margin. UPDATE: We Ask America COO Gregg Durham writes in:

While our polling operation is only entering its 5th year, the principals of our firm have each been involved in political polling for nearly three decades. Since our founding, We Ask America has been conducting private polls for clients ranging from gubernatorial, congressional and state-level candidates, as well as large national trade associations and private businesses. We call an average of four million household a year through the U.S. In addition, we also perform many live interview polls as well.

The decision to enter the public-polling arena was made only after we experienced a great deal of success privately. We fully understand that taking a more public stance will require time and quality work to earn a reputation as a reliable voice in the public polling industry.

PA-15: Joe Biden is planning on sharing some of his own Joementum on the campaign trail soon, with an upcoming event planned for Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan.

Primaries: After record low turnout in the state’s most recent round of primary elections (not to mention the Scott Lee Cohen debacle), Illinois lawmakers have moved the state’s primary back to the third week of March.

Passings: It is with great sadness that we mourn the loss of rock legend Alex Chilton, whose fractured style of pop will forever remain the soundtrack of SSP.

It appears to be on:

A governor’s race that seemed all but settled is about to be upended again, by a popular Democrat from Long Island who is set to announce that he is switching parties. The move is certain to excite Republican leaders pessimistic about their party’s hopes this fall. […]

[Steve] Levy, 50, the Suffolk County executive, said he wanted voters to see him as “Scott Brown II,” referring to the Massachusetts senator who pulled off an upset against a heavily favored Democrat in January.

“There really seems to be a void out there that I can fit perfectly,” Mr. Levy said, describing Albany’s political culture as a “cesspool.”

“We’ve got to clean house, tear that place down and build it back in a cleaner, more efficient manner,” he added.

A spokeswoman for Mr. Levy, Rene Babich, said late Wednesday that Mr. Levy would announce in a news conference in Albany on Friday that he was seeking the Republican nomination for governor.

But will New York Republicans, the same party that turned the name “Scozzafava” into a verb, be willing to accept a guy who will still technically be a Democrat on election day?

Mr. Levy will face considerable hurdles in winning the Republican nomination. Technically, his change in party registration would not take effect until after the November election; so to gain a spot on the Republican primary ballot, he would have to receive more than 50 percent of the vote at the state party convention in June.

Levy will have to go toe-to-toe with ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, which could promise to be a pretty fun primary — if Levy’s bid even gets that far.

Last week, former US Attorney Pat Meehan flagged his own nominating petitions for possible forgeries, asking the Delaware County DA (who, incidentally, is a major donor to Meehan’s campaign) to investigate the matter. Meehan’s campaign isolated the possible forgeries as the work of one veteran GOP operative, Paul Summers, who was responsible for 650 of Meehan’s 3,627 submitted signatures. (To qualify for the ballot, House candidates must file 1,000 valid signatures.)

It looks like the Lentz campaign thinks there may be even more meat on that bone:

Republican congressional candidate and former U.S. attorney Patrick Meehan filed nominating petitions riddled with enough errors to disqualify him from the ballot in the Seventh District U.S. House race, according to a challenge filed with Commonwealth Court.

The motion asks the court to rule that most of the 3,623 signatures Meehan submitted are invalid, leaving him with fewer than the 1,000 required to run in the May 18 GOP primary. […]

Technically, the petition challenge was brought by four unknown registered Republican voters in Delaware County, though the Lentz campaign expressed support in a statement released Tuesday night after the document was filed.

The challenge says two longtime leaders of the county GOP, Thomas Judge Sr. and John McNichol, were among those who signed affidavits as circulators of Meehan petitions without witnessing the signatures of voters, as required by law.

A line-by-line examination of the petition sheets found fictitious signatures, people who were not registered to vote or were not enrolled with the Republican Party, illegible signatures, and other defects, the complaint said. All signatures gathered by circulators who acted improperly should be thrown out, it said.

“What’s unusual is when a candidate recognizes impropriety,” said Cliff Levine, a Pittsburgh lawyer specializing in election law who filed the challenge. “Mr. Meehan agrees with us that there was impropriety. Our point of difference is over the scope.”

More from PA2010:

The complaint is nothing if not wide in scope, claiming to have evidence enough to strike 2,284 signatures simply on their individual merits. The signatures in question, according to the complaint, include ones that, among other things, were illegible; incomplete; belonging to voters not registered in the district; belong to voters not registered as Republicans; or forged entirely by someone else. It further alleges that many of the petitions on which signatures were gathered were circulated by people other than those who signed affidavits confirming they had witnessed each signature.

The full complaint is available here (.pdf). This looks like it’ll yield some pretty juicy news in the coming weeks, to say the least. I especially love Meehan’s response:

Meehan also said this his campaign had reviewed Lent’s nominating petitions and found 550 signatures that could be challenged (Lentz’s campaign collected more than 5,000).

“But I chose not to engage in the waste of court resources that your campaign has willingly embraced,” Meehan wrote. “I believe voters deserve better.”

So are we to believe that Meehan is not challenging Lentz’s petitions because he respects “court resources”, or because he knows that, even if his challenges were successful, Lentz would still have over four times the required signatures to qualify for the ballot? I think we all know the answer to that one.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-07

Field Poll (pdf) (3/9-15, likely voters, 1/5-17 in parens, 9/18-10/6 in brackets):

Meg Whitman (R): 63 (45) [22]

Steve Poizner (R): 14 (17) [9]

Undecided: 23 (38) [49]

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Jerry Brown (D): 43 (46) [50]

Meg Whitman (R): 46 (36) [29]

Undecided: 11 (18) [21]

Jerry Brown (D): 49 (48) [50]

Steve Poizner (R): 32 (31) [25]

Undecided: 19 (21) [25]

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Whitman’s had the airwaves to herself, utterly pummeling state Insurance Co. Steve Poizner into submission. Unless Poizner can hit back, the chances of seeing a Westley/Angelides-style dogfight for the GOP nomination look pretty grim, indeed.

Fun stat: 8% of voters who “identify a lot” with the Tea Party movement favor Brown over Whitman. (Not that it matters, though, as 20% of Democrats defect to Whitman.) Whatever the case, it certainly appears that Brown is no longer in control of this race.

Quinnipiac (3/9-15, registered voters, 1/8-12 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 62 (62)

Rob Simmons (R): 26 (27)

Undecided: 10 (10)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 61 (64)

Linda McMahon (R): 28 (23)

Undecided: 10 (11)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 64 (66)

Peter Schiff (R): 21 (19)

Undecided: 13 (14)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

And the GOP primary:

Rob Simmons (R): 34 (37)

Linda McMahon (R): 44 (27)

Peter Schiff (R): 9 (4)

Undecided: 12 (28)

(MoE: ±5%)

Let me ask you this: If you were Rob Simmons, why would you possibly want to stay in this race? Don’t get me wrong; I’m glad to see him duke it out against McMahon’s millions instead of making more winnable runs for Governor or his own old Congressional seat, but staying on this course makes little sense if he actually is planning on winning something in November.

I know that the Dems controlling the trifecta in Texas is about as likely as the Detroit Lions winning the next Super Bowl, but I decided to give a Democratic gerrymander a shot anyways. Without further ado, here it is

East Texas:

District 1 (Blue): Louie Gohmert, a real nutjob’s nutjob, is safe as can be in this district, which is shifted north somewhat, but is still based in the congressman’s hometown of Tyler.

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert

Voting: 30% Obama, 70% McCain

Demographics: 72% White, 19% Black, 7% Hispanic

District 2 (Green): Ted Poe will be spending a lot less time in the suburbs, as this is now an East Texas district, although it still includes his home in Humble, which is located in Harris County.

Incumbent: Ted Poe

Voting: 29% Obama, 70% McCain

Demographics: 77% White, 12% Black, 9% Hispanic

District 5 (Yellow): Jeb Hensarling, much like Ted Poe, suddenly finds that most of his constituents are now East Texans. Much of this new territory is currently represented by Ralph Hall, who becomes a man without a district. However, Hensarling’s home is included in the tendril that reaches into Dallas County

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling

Voting: 33% Obama, 66% McCain

Demographics: 78% White, 10% Hispanic, 8% Black 5% Asian

District 6 (Teal): Joe Barton gets a cozy Republican vote sink, albeit with a small problem named Ralph Hall, since Rockwall County has been added to the district. Hall, being as old as he is, will probably opt to retire rather than be demolished by Barton in the primary.

Incumbents: Joe Barton, Ralph Hall

Voting: 28% Obama, 71% McCain

Demographics: 77% White, 12% Hispanic, 10% Black

District 8 (Periwinkle): Kevin Brady gets an overwhelmingly Republican district based in Montgomery County (Conroe). While most of the district’s population is in Montgomery County, it includes some other heavily Republican rural counties.

Incumbent: Kevin Brady

Voting: 26% Obama, 73% McCain

Demographics: 77% White, 12% Hispanic, 9% Black

District 4 (Red): This district isn’t quite as East Texas-y as the rest of the districts in this category, but it’s based in Beaumont, so I included it here anyways. It’s an open seat that stretches from Beaumont to Harris County, where it picks up some heavily Democratic neighborhoods. It’s drawn to elect a Democrat, and possibly a member of a minority group. If Nick Lampson still has any desire to be a Congressman, this would be the place for him to run.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 54% Obama, 46% McCain

Demographics: 42% White, 32% Hispanic, 23% Black

Greater Houston:

District 29 (Weird Grayish Green): Gene Green’s district is still heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Gene Green is safe here.

Incumbent: Gene Green

Voting: 60% Obama, 39% McCain

Demographics: 55% Hispanic, 27% White, 15% Black

District 18 (Yellow): Sheila Jackson Lee’s district now has a slight Hispanic plurality, and sees a drop in Democratic performance, although Obama still won this district in a landslide. The edge Hispanics have over Blacks in the district is small enough that a successful racial primary challenge is unlikely.

Incumbent: Sheila Jackson Lee

Voting: 64% Obama, 35% McCain

Demographics: 33% Hispanic, 31% Black, 30% White, 5% Asian

District 20 (Light Pink): This is an open seat that leans Republican. Its creation was necessitated by the screwing over of Pete Olson. In spite of this fact, it has no overlap with Olson’s current district. However, if 2012 is a good year, it’s possible we could contest this.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 44% Obama, 55% McCain

Demographics: 63% White, 21% Hispanic, 9% Black, 7% Asian

District 9 (Light Blue): This is a plurality-black district represented by Al Green. Like the 18th district, this district sees a sharp drop in Democratic performance. However, Obama won here in a landslide

Incumbent: Al Green

Voting: 64% Obama, 35% McCain

Demographics: 32% Black, 30% White, 28% Hispanic, 9% Asian

District 7 (Gray): Wanna know how I can get all these Democratic districts out of a county that gave Obama 50.5% of the vote? By making sure Republican votes are wasted in districts like this one, which is represented by John Culberson.

Incumbent: John Culberson

Voting: 34% Obama, 66% McCain

Demographics: 69% White, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 6% Black

District 33 (Medium Blue): Now we get to the fun part; setting Republican incumbents up for defeat. Enjoy it, because you won’t see any more of this until we get to Dallas. This is a new, Democratic district based in Fort Bend County. It also includes some minority-heavy areas currently represented by Al Green. Under these lines, Pete Olson’s second term will probably be his last.

Incumbent: Pete Olson

Voting: 55% Obama, 45% McCain

Demographics: 40% White, 23% Hispanic, 22% Black, 14% Asian

Central Texas:

District 17 (Bluish Purple): My number one priority while making this map was protecting Chet Edwards. Out of all 435 members of the House, he is probably my favorite, which is something I never thought I’d say about a Texan. (Seriously, learn to drive in the snow before you come to Colorado in the winter). This district includes his current base of Waco, his pre-DeLaymander base of Bell County, and some minority heavy areas of Travis County where Obama won a staggering 83% of the vote, enough for Obama to carry this district by about 1,000 votes. Edwards is untouchable here, and this district will be a tossup at worst when he retires.

Incumbent: Chet Edwards

Voting: 50% Obama, 49% McCain

Demographics: 54% White, 22% Hispanic, 20% Black

District 25 (Salmon): This district looks like a sprawling, rural slice of Central Texas where a liberal Democrat like Lloyd Doggett wouldn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell. However, looks can be deceiving. While Austin accounts for only a tiny fraction of the land area, it consists of most of the district’s population, and its liberal voting habits are more than enough to make this a safe Democratic seat.

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett

Voting: 58% Obama, 40% McCain

Demographics: 56% White, 30% Hispanic, 10% Black

District 36 (Orangeish): This district runs from southern Williamson County to San Marcos, passing through Austin along the way, which is where it gets most of its population. It is an open seat, with a strong Democratic lean.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 67% White, 20% Hispanic, 7% Black, 6% Asian



District 24 (Purple): The vote sink where most of the region’s Republicans, along with Congressman Mike McCaul, end up living. While I could have targeted the perpetually shaky McCaul for defeat, I chose to create a new open seat instead.

Incumbent: Mike McCaul

Voting: 33% Obama, 65% McCain

Demographics: 72% White, 18% Hispanic, 7% Black

District 21 (Wine Red): This district, while less Republican than before, would still be an uphill climb for any Dem. It consists of suburban San Antonio, and is represented by Lamar Smith.

Incumbent: Lamar Smith

Voting: 41% Obama, 58% McCain

Demographics: 62% White, 27% Hispanic, 7% Black

District 11 (Radioactive Green): This is a heavily Hispanic district based in San Antonio. It changes very little, but is renumbered (it used to be the 20th).

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzales

Voting: 62% Obama, 36% McCain

Demographics: 67% Hispanic, 24% White, 6% Black

Central Texas, Part II

District 31 (Yellowish Tan): This district is made much, much more Republican, largely due to the inclusion of some very hostile territory that is currently represented by Chet Edwards, and the removal of both Bell County and Democratic areas of Williamson County. Obama didn’t even break 30% here, and John Carter is completely safe.

Incumbent: John Carter

Voting: 29% Obama, 70% McCain

Demographics: 82% White, 11% Hispanic, 4% Black

District 26 (Dark Gray): Here’s another Republican vote sink. I really wouldn’t consider this a Central Texas district, as most of its residents live in Denton and Tarrant Counties, but it didn’t fit in the screen shot of Dallas, so it gets lumped in here. It is represented by Michael Burgess, who is an anonymous backbencher. However, it was formerly represented by Dick Armey.

Incumbent: Michael Burgess

Voting: 32% Obama, 67% McCain

Demographics: 82% White, 10% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 4% Black

District 12 (Light Blue): This district is designed to pack Republicans, and connects two separate, heavily Republican sections of Tarrant County via Johnson County.

Incumbent: Kay Granger

Voting: 34% Obama, 65% McCain

Demographics: 76% White, 13% Hispanic, 6% Black

Dallas/Fort Worth:

District 35 (Light Purple): This district, which resembles a backward L, is a newly created open seat that is composed of suburbs to the east and south of Dallas. It is contained entirely within Dallas County, and was won handily by Obama.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 56% White, 20% Black, 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian

District 30 (Salmon): This is a heavily Democratic, plurality Black district represented by Eddie Bernice Johnson. It meanders about Dallas County, combining minority-heavy Democratic areas with areas to the north of Dallas that are heavily White and Republican, and currently form the base of Pete Sessions, who is unfortunate enough to find his home in this district, although the prospect of him running here is unlikely, as there are several less hostile districts nearby.

Incumbents: Eddie Bernice Johnson, Pete Sessions

Voting: 66% Obama, 33% McCain

Demographics: 34% Black, 32% Hispanic, 31% White

District 34 (Green): This is another open seat which should lean Democratic. It includes a fair bit of territory that is currently represented by Pete Sessions, but I just don’t see a district that’s only 42% White electing a Republican.

Incumbents: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 55% Obama, 44% McCain

Demographics: 42% White, 38% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian

District 22 (Brown): This is easily the most gerrymandered district in the entire state. It meanders through Tarrant, Denton, Collin, and Dallas counties, picking up swingish areas, and includes a small portion of Central Dallas, which is enough to put Obama over the top here. While Kenny Marchant isn’t a sure loser under these lines, he’ll have a tough fight on his hands hold onto this district, where much of the territory is new to him. Even if he wins in 2012, this district is trending Democratic, and he will never be able to take it for granted.

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant

Voting: 51% Obama, 48% McCain

Demographics: 57% White, 22% Hispanic, 13% Black, 8% Asian

District 3 (Dark Purple): Nothing to see here, folks. This district is heavily Republican and based in Plano. It is represented by Sam Johnson, and even after he retires, as folks his age are bound to do eventually, it will be safe for the Republicans.

Incumbent: Sam Johnson

Voting: 37% Obama, 62% McCain

Demographics: 78% White, 10% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 5% Black

District 32 (Orange): This is a new, Democratic district which encompasses much of Tarrant County. Obama won here handily, and whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be a strong favorite.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 48% White, 27% Hispanic, 20% Black

West Texas:

District 13 (Light Pink): It’s unbelievable that this district was represented by a Democrat as late as the 1990s, because now it’s the most Republican district in Texas, and possibly in the entire nation. Obama flirted with the 20% mark here, while McCain scored close to 80%. It’s based in Amarillo, and includes the Texas Panhandle, and expands to take in some conservative areas south of Wichita Falls.

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry

Voting: 22% Obama, 77% McCain

Demographics: 74% White, 18% Hispanic, 5% Black

District 19 (Pea Soup Green): This district, while still stretching from Lubbock to Abilene, takes on a much less gerrymandered appearance, but doesn’t lose any Republican strength. Randy Neugebauer is still a Congressman for life.

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer

Voting: 28% Obama, 71% McCain

Demographics: 63% White, 29% Hispanic, 6% Black

More West Texas/El Paso:

District 10 (Hot Pink): This Midland-based district exists due to Tom Craddick. It does an excellent job of packing Republicans, so I figured I’d keep it around.

Incumbent: Mike Conaway

Voting: 24% Obama, 75% McCain

Demographics: 67% White, 28% Hispanic, 3% Black

District 16 (Bright Green): This is a heavily Democratic and Hispanic district based in El Paso. It hardly changes at all from its current form.

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes

Voting: 65% Obama, 34% McCain

Demographics: 76% Hispanic, 18% White, 3% Black

District 23 (Pale Blue): Ciro Rodriguez comes out of redistricting as a big winner. His district goes from one that barely supported Obama over McCain to one that supported Obama with over 60% of the vote. This is because it no longer includes nearly as many Republican areas of Bexar County. Taking the place of those Republican areas are heavily Democratic neighborhoods in San Antonio.

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez

Voting: 61% Obama, 38% McCain

Demographics: 72% Hispanic, 21% White, 5% Black

South Texas:

District 28 (Light Purple): This district, which stretches from the border town of Laredo to the exurbs of Houston, adds some Democratic strength. I find the current map, where a couple of the South TX districts, including this one, have Republican PVIs, to be no bueno, and I set about rectifying that situation.

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar

Voting: 55% Obama, 44% McCain

Demographics: 76% Hispanic, 20% White, 3% Black

District 15 (Orange): This district becomes much more compact and Democratic, and is concentrated mostly in Hidalgo County. Ruben Hinojosa has nothing to worry about here.

Incumbent: Ruben Hinojosa

Voting: 66% Obama, 33% McCain

Demographics: 85% Hispanic, 13% White

District 27 (Greenish): This district, which stretches from Corpus Christi to Brownsville is, heavily Hispanic. Like the other Hispanic districts in South Texas, it becomes somewhat more Democratic.

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 22% White, 2% Black

District 14 (Greenish Brown): We finish with the district of Ron Paul. The vast majority of this district’s population is in Brazoria County, which is where Paul is from. The district is heavily Republican.

Incumbent: Ron Paul

Voting: 34% Obama, 65% McCain

Demographics: 62% White, 28% Hispanic, 7% Black

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: As we mentioned on the front page yesterday, Andrew Romanoff won the Democratic primary precinct-level caucuses last night; the final tally, percentage-wise, was 51-42 (with 7% uncommitted) over Michael Bennet (who, by the way, hit the airwaves with the first TV spot yesterday, a decidedly anti-Washington ad). Things were actually much closer on the GOP side, where it looks like ultra-conservative Weld County DA Ken Buck is actually leading establishment fave Jane Norton by a paper-thin margin (37.9% to 37.7%). Of course, the activist-dominated straw polls are going to be Buck’s strong suit and his strength here may not translate as well to the broader GOP electorate, but he performed well enough to show that he’s in this for the long haul. (A similar dynamic played out in the Governor’s race, where ex-Rep. Scott McInnis easily beat teabagger Dan Maes, 61-39, although Maes has polled in the single digits out in reality.)

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s monthly poll of the North Carolina Senate race general election shows little change, with Richard Burr (with a 35/37 approval) still winning in very humdrum fashion. Burr leads Elaine Marshall 41-36 (a positive trend, as she was down by 10 last month, although she was also within 5 of Burr in December). He also leads both Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 43-32, and leads Generic Dem only 41-39. With low familiarity for all three Dems (Marshall’s the best-known, but even she generates 71% “not sure”s), PPP’s Tom Jensen expects the race to tighten once they actually have a nominee.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some food for thought on why Dino Rossi has retreated back to the private sector and has seemed reluctant to come back out to play, despite the NRSC’s constant entreaties: his financial links to Seattle real estate developer Michael Mastro, whose local real estate empire collapsed in late 2008, leaving hundreds of investors out to dry.

• MA-Gov: Here’s more evidence that Tim Cahill, a Democrat until a few months ago, is heading off to the right to try and claim some of Republican Charlie Baker’s turf for his independent challenge to Deval Patrick: he fessed up to having voted for John McCain and is attacking Massachusetts’s universal health care plan (which even Scott Brown didn’t have a beef with, during his campaign) and saying that if the nation took the same approach it would be bankrupt “in four years.”

• NM-Gov: Oooops. Pete Domenici Jr. got a little presumptuous prior to the state’s Republican convention, issuing fliers touting his “great success” and his getting put on the ballot. Turns out neither happened — his 5% showing was last place, not a great success, and didn’t qualify him for the ballot either (he can still do so by gathering signatures).

• NY-Gov: This may be a tea leaf that Democratic Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy is gearing up to challenge ex-Rep. Rick Lazio for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. He hired a Republican consultant, Michael Hook, to help with preparations. Meanwhile, will the last person left in David Paterson‘s employ please turn the lights out? Another top staffer, press secretary Marissa Shorenstein just hit the exits today.

• PA-Gov, PA-Sen: Could ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel be knocked off the Democratic gubernatorial primary ballot? That’s what Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato is trying to make happen, as his team is challenging the validity of Hoeffel’s 7,632 ballot petitions. In order to qualify for the ballot, candidates need 2,000 valid signatures, including at least 100 from 10 different counties. (JL) Hoeffel’s not the only one; Joe Sestak‘s also challenging signatures in the Senate primary. Sestak’s target isn’t Arlen Specter, though, but rather Joseph Vodvarka, a Pittsburgh-area businessman who was a surprise last-minute filer and is the primary’s only third wheel. Sestak, no doubt, is worried that Vodvarka could peel off enough anti-Specter votes to throw a very close election.

• HI-01: Here’s a sign of life from the seemingly placid Colleen Hanabusa campaign; she just got the endorsement of the Hawaii State Teachers’ Association. (Not that it was likely they’d endorse Ed Case, but it’s still important for GOTV.)

• NY-13: Politico’s Ben Smith reported that Republican state Senator Andrew Lanza was taking a second look at the race in the 13th, now that the possibility of the Working Families Party withdrawing its support for Rep. Mike McMahon (if he votes against health care reform) could make a GOP challenge easier in the face of a divided left. The NRCC denied having reached out to Lanza; Lanza confirmed, though, that they had, but said that he was still unlikely to get in the race, preferring to focus on taking back GOP control of the state Senate. While the two GOPers in the race, Michael Grimm and Michael Allegretti, both have had some fundraising success, Lanza would be a definite upgrade for the GOP in the unlikely event he runs.

• PA-06: Another bummer for Doug Pike, who seems to be losing as many endorsements as he’s gaining these days. State Rep. Josh Shapiro, who briefly explored a bid for U.S. Senate last year, has officially switched his endorsement from Pike to “neutral”. (JL)

• SC-03: With rivals Rex Rice and Jeff Duncan (both state Reps.) having gotten the lion’s share of the endorsements and money, state Sen. Shane Massey appears ready to drop out of the GOP primary field in the 3rd. It looks like it’ll be a two-man fight between the Huckabee-backed Rice and CfG-backed Duncan.

• VA-05: I’ll repeat all the usual caveats about how straw polls reflect the most extreme and engaged activists, not the broader electorate, bla bla bla, but there’s just no good way for state Sen. Robert Hurt to spin his showing at the Franklin County GOP Republican Womens’ straw poll. The establishment pick drew 11.6% of the vote, while self-funding teabagger Jim McKelvey grabbed 51%.

• WA-03: The Dick Army (aka FreedomWorks) has weighed in with a rare primary endorsement in a rather unexpected place: the GOP primary in the open seat in the 3rd. They endorsed David Castillo, the financial advisor and former Bush administration underling who stayed in the race despite state Rep. Jaime Herrera’s entry. Here’s the likely explanation: Castillo actually used to work for FreedomWorks’ predecessor organization, Citizens for a Sound Economy. Still, that’s a boost for Castillo, who’s been faring pretty well on the endorsements front against the establishment pick Herrera (and a boost for Dems, who’d no doubt like to see a brutal GOP primary). Meanwhile, on the Dem side, state Sen. Craig Pridemore is holding outgoing Rep. Brian Baird’s feet to the fire to get him to switch his vote to “yes” on health care reform; primary opponent Denny Heck has avoided taking much of a position on HCR.

• Census: Here’s some interesting background on how the Census protects respondents’ privacy. Not only are individual responses sealed for 72 years, but the Census intentionally adds “noise” that camouflages individuals whose particular combination of data would make them unique in some way and thus not be anonymous, at least to someone seeking them out (for instance, they cite the hypothetical only 65-year-old married woman attending college in North Dakota). (P.S.: You probably got your form in the last day or two. Please fill it out!)

AR-Sen: As Reid Wilson says, here’s something you don’t see every day – at least, not in a Dem primary. Blanche Lincoln is attacking the labor unions who are supporting her opponent, Bill Halter. Lincoln is also doing her best to warm the hearts of the faithful by taking John Boehner’s side in the latest kerfuffle over House procedural tactics with regard to healthcare reform.

CO-Sen: Dem Sen. Michael Bennet has his first TV ad up, a $300K buy in Denver and Colorado Springs. Greg Giroux suggests that the timing is deliberate, since Bennet will be looking to blunt any possible momentum Romanoff might have received coming out of last night’s precinct caucuses.

FL-Sen: All the cool kids have already done it, which means anyone getting on the Marco Rubio bandwagon at this late date is just a fair-weather fan. Still, GOP Rep. Tom Price is chair of the Republican Study Committee, which is the Borg collective mothership of right-wing crazy, so this gives Rubio the Good Wingnut Seal of Approval™. Resistance is futile.

MA-Sen: That didn’t take long – newly-minted GOP Sen. Scott Brown will be hosting his first inside-the-beltway fundraiser, at $1000 a head. Of course, it’ll be at the offices of lobbying firm Duane Morris. My advice to Scott Brown is to hold lots and lots of events with lobbyists. Also, become the anti-healthcare frontman for your party. Thanks for helping out with that, Mitch McConnell!

NV-Sen: Memo to reporters: Please include information about the size of ad buys (especially for attack ads) when you’re writing them up. There are too many tiny buys made solely for the purpose of spinning the media. We the people need to know if we’re being spun, too.

NY-Sen-B: Republican ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi officially offered himself up as a sacrificial lamb entered the race to take on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand yesterday.

PA-Sen: Arlen Specter snagged another valuable endorsement yesterday, this time from the 191,000-strong Pennsylvania State Education Association. (JL)

WI-Sen: A source close to Tommy Thompson’s jowls says that the former governor is “50-50” on whether he will play Droopy Dog in the upcoming remake.

SC-Gov: It’s payback time – Willard Mitt Romney is endorsing Mark Sanford protégé and state Rep. Nikki Haley for governor. Haley, as you’ve probably gathered, had endorsed Mittens in 2008 for the key SC primary. Other presidential wannabes have also returned the favor to their respective buddies; Reid Wilson has the full scorecard.

AZ-08: GOPer Jonathan Paton, who recently resigned from the state Senate to challenge Rep. Gabby Giffords, was added to the NRCC’s Young Guns program. Three other Republicans are seeking their party’s nod, including one candidate already on the Young Guns list, Marine Corps vet Jesse Kelly. Paton is almost certainly the establishment favorite, though.

LA-02: It’s hard to know what to make of the GOP’s attitude toward Joe Cao’s seat. On the one hand, they let him get mixed up with the sketchmeisters at BMW Direct. On the other, John Boehner just held a $500/person fundraiser for Cao last night on Capitol Hill. But then on the flipside, it looks like Cao will flip-flop and vote against healthcare this time, which will surely doom him in November. So why waste the money on him? Perhaps GOP bigs figure that buying Cao off will pay dividends when the party is able to point to unanimous opposition to the healthcare bill.

ND-AL: The campaign manager for former state House Majority Leader Rick Berg, a leading challenger to Earl Pomeroy, resigned yesterday, after misusing a state Republican Party email list and lying about it.

NY-13: Andy Stern wasn’t kidding. The SEIU is running a full-page ad in today’s Staten Island Advance urging Rep. Mike McMahon to vote in favor of healthcare reform. Greg Sargent has a copy of the full ad (PDF). This ad could presage a primary or third-party challenge should McMahon vote no, something Stern has already threatened.

SD-AL: Steve Hildebrand, a top Obama campaign official, says he’s considering a challenge to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary, particularly if she votes against healthcare.

DNC: This is Not News. DNC chair Tim Kaine says that Organizing for America will help Dems who vote “yes” on healthcare reform… but of course doesn’t say that he’ll withhold help from Dems who vote “no.” I wouldn’t expect him to, hence why this is Not News.

Healthcare: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce absolutely, definitely, most assuredly is not not NOT concern trolling House Democrats on the upcoming healthcare vote. They have our best interests at heart, and spent money on polling because they genuinely care about us.

Much more interesting poll numbers on healthcare can be found here. It turns out that the public was evenly divided on Medicare before it became law, too. Now, of course, the program is unassailable.

Kentucky: A bill to let independents vote in Democratic or Republican primaries died in the KY House.

WATN: I guess with Eric Massa stealing the limelight these days, Mark Foley feels emboldened to make his return to DC. He’ll be a guest at one of those unduly cozy black-tie beltway affairs, the Radio and TV Correspondents’ Dinner.

SSP: I’m not done begging. We’re at 1,386 Twitter followers. SO close to 1,400. Make it happen. Pretty please?

Sorry for not putting up a thread earlier. In tonight’s special election for the state Senate in Queens, it looks like Dem Jose Peralta is crushing disgraced ex-Sen. Hiram Monserrate (now running as an independent) 60-33 with a quarter of precincts reporting.

UPDATE (James): Looking for Colorado caucus results? Democrats have a nice spreadsheet of results, while Republicans are actually forcing you to download an Excel file to see their state of affairs. The Colorado Springs Gazette and the Denver Post are also liveblogging the caucuses.

UPDATE (J): With 56 of 158 precincts in, Peralta leads Monserrate by 61-33.

CONCESSION UPDATE (J): Monserrate has conceded the race. Woo-hoo!

UPDATE: So far, Romanoff leads Bennet by 904-704 in the precinct caucus count.

UPDATE: Romanoff now has a 4764-3248 edge on Bennet after a big win in the Denver precincts.