Author: fatcathobbes

I know that the Dems controlling the trifecta in Texas is about as likely as the Detroit Lions winning the next Super Bowl, but I decided to give a Democratic gerrymander a shot anyways. Without further ado, here it is

East Texas:

District 1 (Blue): Louie Gohmert, a real nutjob’s nutjob, is safe as can be in this district, which is shifted north somewhat, but is still based in the congressman’s hometown of Tyler.

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert

Voting: 30% Obama, 70% McCain

Demographics: 72% White, 19% Black, 7% Hispanic

District 2 (Green): Ted Poe will be spending a lot less time in the suburbs, as this is now an East Texas district, although it still includes his home in Humble, which is located in Harris County.

Incumbent: Ted Poe

Voting: 29% Obama, 70% McCain

Demographics: 77% White, 12% Black, 9% Hispanic

District 5 (Yellow): Jeb Hensarling, much like Ted Poe, suddenly finds that most of his constituents are now East Texans. Much of this new territory is currently represented by Ralph Hall, who becomes a man without a district. However, Hensarling’s home is included in the tendril that reaches into Dallas County

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling

Voting: 33% Obama, 66% McCain

Demographics: 78% White, 10% Hispanic, 8% Black 5% Asian

District 6 (Teal): Joe Barton gets a cozy Republican vote sink, albeit with a small problem named Ralph Hall, since Rockwall County has been added to the district. Hall, being as old as he is, will probably opt to retire rather than be demolished by Barton in the primary.

Incumbents: Joe Barton, Ralph Hall

Voting: 28% Obama, 71% McCain

Demographics: 77% White, 12% Hispanic, 10% Black

District 8 (Periwinkle): Kevin Brady gets an overwhelmingly Republican district based in Montgomery County (Conroe). While most of the district’s population is in Montgomery County, it includes some other heavily Republican rural counties.

Incumbent: Kevin Brady

Voting: 26% Obama, 73% McCain

Demographics: 77% White, 12% Hispanic, 9% Black

District 4 (Red): This district isn’t quite as East Texas-y as the rest of the districts in this category, but it’s based in Beaumont, so I included it here anyways. It’s an open seat that stretches from Beaumont to Harris County, where it picks up some heavily Democratic neighborhoods. It’s drawn to elect a Democrat, and possibly a member of a minority group. If Nick Lampson still has any desire to be a Congressman, this would be the place for him to run.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 54% Obama, 46% McCain

Demographics: 42% White, 32% Hispanic, 23% Black

Greater Houston:

District 29 (Weird Grayish Green): Gene Green’s district is still heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Gene Green is safe here.

Incumbent: Gene Green

Voting: 60% Obama, 39% McCain

Demographics: 55% Hispanic, 27% White, 15% Black

District 18 (Yellow): Sheila Jackson Lee’s district now has a slight Hispanic plurality, and sees a drop in Democratic performance, although Obama still won this district in a landslide. The edge Hispanics have over Blacks in the district is small enough that a successful racial primary challenge is unlikely.

Incumbent: Sheila Jackson Lee

Voting: 64% Obama, 35% McCain

Demographics: 33% Hispanic, 31% Black, 30% White, 5% Asian

District 20 (Light Pink): This is an open seat that leans Republican. Its creation was necessitated by the screwing over of Pete Olson. In spite of this fact, it has no overlap with Olson’s current district. However, if 2012 is a good year, it’s possible we could contest this.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 44% Obama, 55% McCain

Demographics: 63% White, 21% Hispanic, 9% Black, 7% Asian

District 9 (Light Blue): This is a plurality-black district represented by Al Green. Like the 18th district, this district sees a sharp drop in Democratic performance. However, Obama won here in a landslide

Incumbent: Al Green

Voting: 64% Obama, 35% McCain

Demographics: 32% Black, 30% White, 28% Hispanic, 9% Asian

District 7 (Gray): Wanna know how I can get all these Democratic districts out of a county that gave Obama 50.5% of the vote? By making sure Republican votes are wasted in districts like this one, which is represented by John Culberson.

Incumbent: John Culberson

Voting: 34% Obama, 66% McCain

Demographics: 69% White, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 6% Black

District 33 (Medium Blue): Now we get to the fun part; setting Republican incumbents up for defeat. Enjoy it, because you won’t see any more of this until we get to Dallas. This is a new, Democratic district based in Fort Bend County. It also includes some minority-heavy areas currently represented by Al Green. Under these lines, Pete Olson’s second term will probably be his last.

Incumbent: Pete Olson

Voting: 55% Obama, 45% McCain

Demographics: 40% White, 23% Hispanic, 22% Black, 14% Asian

Central Texas:

District 17 (Bluish Purple): My number one priority while making this map was protecting Chet Edwards. Out of all 435 members of the House, he is probably my favorite, which is something I never thought I’d say about a Texan. (Seriously, learn to drive in the snow before you come to Colorado in the winter). This district includes his current base of Waco, his pre-DeLaymander base of Bell County, and some minority heavy areas of Travis County where Obama won a staggering 83% of the vote, enough for Obama to carry this district by about 1,000 votes. Edwards is untouchable here, and this district will be a tossup at worst when he retires.

Incumbent: Chet Edwards

Voting: 50% Obama, 49% McCain

Demographics: 54% White, 22% Hispanic, 20% Black

District 25 (Salmon): This district looks like a sprawling, rural slice of Central Texas where a liberal Democrat like Lloyd Doggett wouldn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell. However, looks can be deceiving. While Austin accounts for only a tiny fraction of the land area, it consists of most of the district’s population, and its liberal voting habits are more than enough to make this a safe Democratic seat.

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett

Voting: 58% Obama, 40% McCain

Demographics: 56% White, 30% Hispanic, 10% Black

District 36 (Orangeish): This district runs from southern Williamson County to San Marcos, passing through Austin along the way, which is where it gets most of its population. It is an open seat, with a strong Democratic lean.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 67% White, 20% Hispanic, 7% Black, 6% Asian



District 24 (Purple): The vote sink where most of the region’s Republicans, along with Congressman Mike McCaul, end up living. While I could have targeted the perpetually shaky McCaul for defeat, I chose to create a new open seat instead.

Incumbent: Mike McCaul

Voting: 33% Obama, 65% McCain

Demographics: 72% White, 18% Hispanic, 7% Black

District 21 (Wine Red): This district, while less Republican than before, would still be an uphill climb for any Dem. It consists of suburban San Antonio, and is represented by Lamar Smith.

Incumbent: Lamar Smith

Voting: 41% Obama, 58% McCain

Demographics: 62% White, 27% Hispanic, 7% Black

District 11 (Radioactive Green): This is a heavily Hispanic district based in San Antonio. It changes very little, but is renumbered (it used to be the 20th).

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzales

Voting: 62% Obama, 36% McCain

Demographics: 67% Hispanic, 24% White, 6% Black

Central Texas, Part II

District 31 (Yellowish Tan): This district is made much, much more Republican, largely due to the inclusion of some very hostile territory that is currently represented by Chet Edwards, and the removal of both Bell County and Democratic areas of Williamson County. Obama didn’t even break 30% here, and John Carter is completely safe.

Incumbent: John Carter

Voting: 29% Obama, 70% McCain

Demographics: 82% White, 11% Hispanic, 4% Black

District 26 (Dark Gray): Here’s another Republican vote sink. I really wouldn’t consider this a Central Texas district, as most of its residents live in Denton and Tarrant Counties, but it didn’t fit in the screen shot of Dallas, so it gets lumped in here. It is represented by Michael Burgess, who is an anonymous backbencher. However, it was formerly represented by Dick Armey.

Incumbent: Michael Burgess

Voting: 32% Obama, 67% McCain

Demographics: 82% White, 10% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 4% Black

District 12 (Light Blue): This district is designed to pack Republicans, and connects two separate, heavily Republican sections of Tarrant County via Johnson County.

Incumbent: Kay Granger

Voting: 34% Obama, 65% McCain

Demographics: 76% White, 13% Hispanic, 6% Black

Dallas/Fort Worth:

District 35 (Light Purple): This district, which resembles a backward L, is a newly created open seat that is composed of suburbs to the east and south of Dallas. It is contained entirely within Dallas County, and was won handily by Obama.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 56% White, 20% Black, 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian

District 30 (Salmon): This is a heavily Democratic, plurality Black district represented by Eddie Bernice Johnson. It meanders about Dallas County, combining minority-heavy Democratic areas with areas to the north of Dallas that are heavily White and Republican, and currently form the base of Pete Sessions, who is unfortunate enough to find his home in this district, although the prospect of him running here is unlikely, as there are several less hostile districts nearby.

Incumbents: Eddie Bernice Johnson, Pete Sessions

Voting: 66% Obama, 33% McCain

Demographics: 34% Black, 32% Hispanic, 31% White

District 34 (Green): This is another open seat which should lean Democratic. It includes a fair bit of territory that is currently represented by Pete Sessions, but I just don’t see a district that’s only 42% White electing a Republican.

Incumbents: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 55% Obama, 44% McCain

Demographics: 42% White, 38% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian

District 22 (Brown): This is easily the most gerrymandered district in the entire state. It meanders through Tarrant, Denton, Collin, and Dallas counties, picking up swingish areas, and includes a small portion of Central Dallas, which is enough to put Obama over the top here. While Kenny Marchant isn’t a sure loser under these lines, he’ll have a tough fight on his hands hold onto this district, where much of the territory is new to him. Even if he wins in 2012, this district is trending Democratic, and he will never be able to take it for granted.

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant

Voting: 51% Obama, 48% McCain

Demographics: 57% White, 22% Hispanic, 13% Black, 8% Asian

District 3 (Dark Purple): Nothing to see here, folks. This district is heavily Republican and based in Plano. It is represented by Sam Johnson, and even after he retires, as folks his age are bound to do eventually, it will be safe for the Republicans.

Incumbent: Sam Johnson

Voting: 37% Obama, 62% McCain

Demographics: 78% White, 10% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 5% Black

District 32 (Orange): This is a new, Democratic district which encompasses much of Tarrant County. Obama won here handily, and whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be a strong favorite.

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 48% White, 27% Hispanic, 20% Black

West Texas:

District 13 (Light Pink): It’s unbelievable that this district was represented by a Democrat as late as the 1990s, because now it’s the most Republican district in Texas, and possibly in the entire nation. Obama flirted with the 20% mark here, while McCain scored close to 80%. It’s based in Amarillo, and includes the Texas Panhandle, and expands to take in some conservative areas south of Wichita Falls.

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry

Voting: 22% Obama, 77% McCain

Demographics: 74% White, 18% Hispanic, 5% Black

District 19 (Pea Soup Green): This district, while still stretching from Lubbock to Abilene, takes on a much less gerrymandered appearance, but doesn’t lose any Republican strength. Randy Neugebauer is still a Congressman for life.

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer

Voting: 28% Obama, 71% McCain

Demographics: 63% White, 29% Hispanic, 6% Black

More West Texas/El Paso:

District 10 (Hot Pink): This Midland-based district exists due to Tom Craddick. It does an excellent job of packing Republicans, so I figured I’d keep it around.

Incumbent: Mike Conaway

Voting: 24% Obama, 75% McCain

Demographics: 67% White, 28% Hispanic, 3% Black

District 16 (Bright Green): This is a heavily Democratic and Hispanic district based in El Paso. It hardly changes at all from its current form.

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes

Voting: 65% Obama, 34% McCain

Demographics: 76% Hispanic, 18% White, 3% Black

District 23 (Pale Blue): Ciro Rodriguez comes out of redistricting as a big winner. His district goes from one that barely supported Obama over McCain to one that supported Obama with over 60% of the vote. This is because it no longer includes nearly as many Republican areas of Bexar County. Taking the place of those Republican areas are heavily Democratic neighborhoods in San Antonio.

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez

Voting: 61% Obama, 38% McCain

Demographics: 72% Hispanic, 21% White, 5% Black

South Texas:

District 28 (Light Purple): This district, which stretches from the border town of Laredo to the exurbs of Houston, adds some Democratic strength. I find the current map, where a couple of the South TX districts, including this one, have Republican PVIs, to be no bueno, and I set about rectifying that situation.

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar

Voting: 55% Obama, 44% McCain

Demographics: 76% Hispanic, 20% White, 3% Black

District 15 (Orange): This district becomes much more compact and Democratic, and is concentrated mostly in Hidalgo County. Ruben Hinojosa has nothing to worry about here.

Incumbent: Ruben Hinojosa

Voting: 66% Obama, 33% McCain

Demographics: 85% Hispanic, 13% White

District 27 (Greenish): This district, which stretches from Corpus Christi to Brownsville is, heavily Hispanic. Like the other Hispanic districts in South Texas, it becomes somewhat more Democratic.

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz

Voting: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 22% White, 2% Black

District 14 (Greenish Brown): We finish with the district of Ron Paul. The vast majority of this district’s population is in Brazoria County, which is where Paul is from. The district is heavily Republican.

Incumbent: Ron Paul

Voting: 34% Obama, 65% McCain

Demographics: 62% White, 28% Hispanic, 7% Black

  I set out to draw what the post-census congressional districts of Georgia might look like if we fail to win the governorship or take back one of the houses of the state legislature. I get nauseous when I look at this map, so I think I did a decent job. After all is said and done, this map will probably elect four Democrats and ten Republicans.

 When the Republicans DeLaymandered Texas, they mainly targeted moderate, white Democrats, and I think the Republicans in Georgia will probably try the same thing, so Jim Marshall and John Barrow are toast under this map. The other two goals of the Republicans will most likely be to hog the new 14th district for themselves, and to make sure John Linder’s district won’t have trended out from under him by the year 2022, especially since he will most likely retire before then.

 Without further ado, here are the pictures.

Northern Georgia:

Southern Georgia:

Greater Atlanta:

District 2 (Sanford Bishop vs. Jim Marshall):

District 5 (John Barrow):

District 1 – Jack Kingston (Light Blue) – Kingston’s district picks up some of Savannah’s African-American residents in order to remove them from Barrow’s district, and it shrinks somewhat in size, but this district should still be safe for him.

District 2 – Sanford Bishop vs. Jim Marshall (Dark Green) – While the old 2nd District was majority white and confined to Southwest Georgia, the new 2nd is majority-black and sprawls from Columbus to Augusta, and includes both Sanford Bishop’s home in Albany and Jim Marshall’s home in Macon. I think Bishop is an overwhelming favorite here, because it contains much more of his former territory than Marshall’s, and because he is African-American, which is always a plus when you’re running in a majority black district. If Marshall wants to stay in public life, he would probably want to either move to the 10th or 14th and run there, or retire and plan to either run for Senate or Governor in 2014.

District 3 – Lynn Westmoreland (Dark Purple) – Lynn Westmoreland’s loses Henry County and its portion of Douglas County, and picks up some territory near the Alabama border, as well as Monroe County. It is probably even more Republican than it is in its current form.

District 4 – TBD (Red) – With Nathan Deal running for Governor, I have no idea who this district’s representative will be, but unless hell freezes over, they will be a Republican who can stand to be weakened a bit, since Deal’s current district has a PVI of R+28! This district gets a new number (it used to be the 9th), and picks up part of Gwinnett County, while shedding some territory in the North Georgia Mountains. This district may look different, depending on where Deal’s replacement lives.

District 5 – John Barrow (Yellow) – This district is drawn for the sole purpose of defeating John Barrow. Barrow loses many of his African-American constituents to the 2nd, and to a lesser extent, the 1st. On top of that, there is a tendril that extends into some deeply conservative areas to the north of Augusta. Barrow will have a tough time holding this one.

District 6 – Tom Price (Teal) – This district, which was once represented by Newt Gingrich, changes very little, losing a small section of North Fulton, as well as Dunwoody, in DeKalb County, to the 7th district. Population growth is sufficient that it doesn’t take in any new territory.

District 7 – John Linder (Gray) – In an attempt to make sure Gwinnett County’s trend in our direction doesn’t imperil John Linder, this district loses much of Gwinnett to the 4th District (formerly the 9th), and to the new 14th. To compensate for this, it picks up small sections of North Fulton, as well as Dunwoody, from the 6th, and picks up Forsyth County, which gave McCain 79% of the vote.

District 8 – Hank Johnson (Periwinkle) – The only thing that really changes about this district, aside from the number,(it used to be the 4th), is that it no longer includes Rockdale County. Hank Johnson will be in congress for as long as he likes, assuming he learned a lesson from his predecessor and gives the Capitol Police their space.

District 9 – Phil Gingrey (Bright Blue) – This district contains a little bit more of Cobb County than it used to, and a little bit less rural territory along the Alabama border, but it is still a Republican stronghold. However, it is renumbered. (It used to be the 11th).

District 10 – OPEN (Hot Pink) – This district’s main population center is Warner Robins, a conservative city with a strong military presence. However, this district is mostly rural and is composed of Republican areas taken from the districts of Jack Kingston, Sanford Bishop, and Jim Marshall. Marshall might run here, but historically he hasn’t performed too well in the turf here that was formerly in his district. This is probably a likely pickup for the Republicans.

District 11 – John Lewis (Radioactive Green)- John Lewis’s district is still a majority-black Democratic stronghold, but it gets a new number, and some territory in Cobb County that was previously represented by David Scott.

District 12 – Paul Broun (Indigo) – Despite containing Athens, the 12th (formerly the 10th) is heavily Republican, thanks to its territory in North Georgia. Broun is safe here.

District 13 – David Scott (Salmon) – This district stays very similar in shape, but is now majority black as opposed to majority minority.

District 14 – OPEN (Greenish Brown) – This is the new district. Although it includes Rockdale County, which Obama won, and Henry County, which has been trending our way, as well as part of Gwinnett County, it also includes Walton and Barrow Counties, which are exurban and heavily Republican, as well as some heavily Republican rural areas. This district might be competitive someday, but for now it should go Republican. It wouldn’t surprise me to see former Rep. Mac Collins try and make a comeback here. Marshall could also conceivably run here, but he hasn’t done well in the section of his current district that is in this new district, and would be an underdog.

P.S. I don’t know as much about the Voting Rights Act as I should, so if you know how it might affect this map, be sure to let me know.

I had always assumed Johnny Isakson (R-GA) would have an easy time being re-elected to his senate seat in 2010, but according to this poll, he may be vulnerable. Here is the link. http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

The poll shows him with a lead of 47-43 against former governor Roy Barnes, and a lead of 48-40 against Rep. Jim Marshall. Hopefully a top tier candidate can be persuaded to run against him, and we won’t have a replay of the 2008 senate election, where we failed to nominate a top tier candidate and then realized Chambliss was vulnerable.

I found this site a few months ago and have really enjoyed the content, so I decided I would try and contribute something. If you have any questions, comments, constructive criticism, feel free to let me know.

Background: I decided to start with Colorado, since it’s my home state. Colorado has both a Democratic governor and a Democratic legislature, allowing the Democrats to do as they please when it comes to redistricting. My first priority was to protect Markey, and my second priority was to put Salazar into a more favorable district that we’ll have a good chance of holding if he ever decides to retire.

District 1 – Diana DeGette – I didn’t change this district too much. This district includes Denver and Arvada, in Jefferson county. It is still very heavily Democratic; Obama got about 73% of the vote here.

District 2 – Jared Polis – This is the district I am least happy with. I tried to give Salazar a more favorable district by removing Mesa County (Grand Junction), which is a deep shade of blood red, and giving him all of the ski resort counties, most of which are insanely Democratic. However, that means that Polis’s district now contains Grand Junction, as well as some other conservative areas like Delta County. It’s still anchored by Boulder, though, and Obama got 57-58 percent of the vote here, but I’m still worried I might have diluted the district too much.

District 3 – John Salazar – John Salazar is as safe as can be in his current district, but I wanted to create a district that we’d have a good chance of holding if and when Salazar retires. To do that, I removed a whole section of his district stretching from Wyoming to Grand Junction. In its place, he got some heavily Democratic territory currently represented by Jared Polis, some swing areas to the west of Colorado Springs that are currently being wasted in Doug Lamborn’s district. Unfortunately, I also had to give him part of Douglas County, and a few of the counties on the eastern plains, but they are more than offset by Pueblo and the San Luis Valley. Obama got about 51-52 percent of the vote here, making it a swing district in presidential races.

District 4 – Betsy Markey – One of my main goals was making Markey safer. This is the district that I live in, and after six years of having Marilyn Musgrave be my voice in Washington, Markey is a nice change. I didn’t have to work too hard to make her safer, since the rapid growth in Weld and Larimer counties allowed me to move most of the Eastern Plains to a different district while adding hardly any new territory. This is another swing district where Obama won 51-52 percent of the vote, but I think it’s enough to make Markey safe.

District 5 – Doug Lamborn – I wanted to do something to get rid of Doug Lamborn; his two biggest backers are the Christian Coalition and the Club for Growth; that should tell you all you need to know. However, for the forseeable future, there is going to be a heavily Republican district based in Colorado Springs, so I stripped the district of the swing areas in the western section, and added most of the counties in the Eastern Plains that Markey was relieved of, as well as part of heavily Republican Douglas County. McCain got about 61 percent of the vote here.

District 6 – Mike Coffman – I thought about trying to come up with a gerrymander that would make Coffman’s district too Democratic for him to be re-elected, but I decided against it. However, don’t lose hope yet. Because of explosive growth in the district, it is dramatically reduced in size, and it is anchored by Democratic leaning Arapahoe County, as well as about 60 percent of the population of Douglas County. In the new, more compact district, Obama got 52-53 percent of the vote, and it’s still trending our way. Coffman, like most Colorado Republicans, is very conservative, and thus is a poor fit for a classic swing district like this one. He’ll have the fight of his life in 2012, and if he survives that, we’ll get him eventually just because of the long term trends in the district.

District 7 – Ed Perlmutter – Perlmutter’s new district is sort of gerrymandered, and looks like a pair of nunchucks. It contains all of Jefferson County except Aurora, and the parts of Adams County that aren’t in Polis’s district. It leans Democratic. Obama got about 56% of the vote in this district.