Republican Gerrymander – Swing State Project

TX Redistricting, 35 Seats, GOP Gerrymander

Nathaniel90’s diary motivated me to make my own Republican gerrymander of Texas. By the time I was done, I was kinda shocked at how “ugly” some of my districts looked, notably TX-7, TX-8, and TX-10 all reaching into downtown Houston to dilute a new minority district, and how TX-21, TX-17, TX-10, and a new Republican TX-35 were snaked across central Texas so as to keep all these seats in Republican control for 10 years and likely dislodge Edwards. My inspiration here was a comment by TXMichael to separate Bell, Williamson, and McLennan into three different districts. Originally I was going to allow Edwards to be “safe” and create a district for him out of these three counties and Travis, but I think the TX Republican party is more likely to try something like this.

TX-7 is the most “at risk” GOP district in the state at 56% White. Most GOP districts are close to 60% white. All Democratic seats, except the Travis county based TX-25 are over 75% minority.

Full State, Top Half

Full State, Bottom Half

El Paso

Dallas/Fort Worth This is what I am the most proud of. Sessions and Marchant are safe, and a new Democratic seat is made on Dallas’ west side.

Harris CountyA new Republican seat is made. I’m shocked at how I had to have TX-7, TX-8 and TX-10 reach into downtown to grab leftover minority precincts. If a 36th seat comes around, I think this is where it’s going to go providing an extra buffer for TX-7 and TX-34 (TX-2, TX-29, and TX-34 are all green and border each other, sorry)

Travis County

Bexar County

Central Texas OMG! What did I do to TX-10, TX-17, TX-21, TX-31, and TX-35? I eliminated Chet Edwards with a can not win district and made a new rural Republican seat. Sucks to be Chet, I guess the Republicans can make things worse.

Districts in Review:

TX-1 (Blue): Louie Gohmert (R) Smith County, Nacadoches, and northern East Texas. 67% White

Contracts in size, loses a few counties, but still the same East Texas district full of people JSmith does not tolerate 😛

TX-2 (Dark Green): Ted Poe (R) Far East Harris County, Beaumont, and Jasper. 65% White

Loses some Harris County precincts and expands to become mostly based out of East Texas grabbing all of Jefferson county and several other rural East Texas counties.

TX-3 (Purple): Sam Johnson (R) Collin County, Plano. 65% White

Contract, contract, contract. Loses all Dallas precincts and grabs a handful of new Collin county precincts in exchange.

TX-4 (Red): Ralph Hall (R) Rural Colin County, Rockwall County, Paris. 75% White

Almost no changes. Only changes were the addition of Wood County and Loss of all of Cass County.

TX-5 (Yellow): Jeb Hensarling (R) Mesquite, Grand Prairie, Ellis County, Athens County. 60% White.

Hensarling’s district rotates clockwise in Dallas county, losing some of the stuff on his north end and reaches around to the southwest corner. Additionally, the addition of Ellis county gives TX-5 a rural county with a large population.

TX-6 (Sea Green): Joe Barton (R) Arlington, Johnson County. 59% White

In Tarrant, TX-6 grabs a little more of downtown. The rest of the district is entirely different. Gone is the I-45 stretch to Centervile, instead the Heavy straight-ticket GOP county of Johnson is added.

TX-7 (Grey): John Culberson (R) West Houston. 56% White

The most “vulnerable” GOP district in the state. relatively the same, bleeds some precincts out of Jersey Village and few more out of Spring Village. Grabs some new precincts out of West University Place and Bellaire.

TX-8 (Deep Purple): Kevin Brady (R) The Woodlands, West Downtown Houston. 64% White

The first “special” district. TX-8 gives up all of the rural East Texas districts (no more Jim Turner to dislodge) and now reaches it’s tentacle from Montgomery county into downtown Houston grabbing as many leftover minority districts as it can find.

TX-9 (Light Blue): Al Green (D) Southwest Houston, Rosenburg. 32% Black, 29% Hispanic, 24% White

TX-9 begins a run towards Fort Bend County. Despite the Delay reputation left with Sugarland and Fort Bend, Obama got 49% in this County. TX-9 reaches to Rosenburg to grab all the minority precincts to make a safe TX-22.

TX-10 (Bright Pink): Mike McCaul (R) Northeast Travis, North Harris, Downtown Houston, Temple. 59% White

The next special district. A lot of this would be easier is McCaul did not live in Travis County. Some Travis counties were shed, as was Burleson, Austin, and some of Waller county. The district gains by grabbing those other minoirty precincts in Harris that TX-8 could not get and reach around College Station to Bell County and grabs as much as it can from this shifting democratic county.

TX-11 (Lime Green): Mike Conaway (R) San Angelo, Midland, Odessa. 57% White

Not many changes.Grabs Coryell and Hamilton County, burns Kimble, Mason, Llano, and Gillespie.

TX-12 (Blue): Kay Granger (R) North West Tarrant County. 59% White.

Not much change. Loses some land to TX-6 and takes some downtown precincts from TX-24.

TX-13 (Peach): Mac Thornberry (R) Panhandle. 67% White.

Loses no land, grabs a handful of new counties, including Deaf Smith, Archer, Young, and Castro, and Parmer.

TX-14 (Safari Green): Ron Paul (R) Galveston, Aransas, La Grange. 55% White

Om nom nom, land. TX-14 grows and grows a lot. Goodbye Wharton county, hello I-10 corridor and lands north of Corpus Christie. Don’t let the low numbers of Whites fool you, this is libertarian land that loves Ron Paul crazies.

TX-15 (Orange): Ruben Hinojosa (D) McAllen, Harlengen. 87% Hispanic.

If TX-14 was scarfing food, TX-15 is bulimic. It contracts to just these two cities.

TX-16 (Nuclear Green) Sylvester Reyes (D) El Paso. 81% Hispanic

I think it bleed 3 precincts total. No change.

TX-17 (Dark Purple) Chet Edwards (D) Waco, Hood County, Corsicana, Huntsville, San Jacinto County. 67% White.

Okay, Chet Edwards should have been eliminated in 2004, but he wasn’t and he’s a BAMF. The addition of College Station should have finished him off, except the legislature forgot Aggies are idiots (if you live in Texas, you know the jokes and you are laughing) and will vote for someone only if they wear their A&M class ring. First thing to do, get rid of A&M. He now has Sam Houston University in Huntsville and the entire backwoods region north of Houston. My only regret with this district? Getting rid of Johnson county, maybe I should have kept Johnson and eliminated Hood instead. Oh well . . . Either ways, behold the end of Rep. Edwards.

TX-18 (Yellow) Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) Downtown Houston. 51% Black, 34% Hispanic

Grabs a lot of area on the South side of Houston and burns stuff near Jersey Village. I’m surprised I got a 51% black district.

TX-19 (Puke Green) Randy Neugenbauer (R) Rural West Texas, Lubbock. 61% White.

Grabs Erath and Andrews County, not many other changes

TX-20 (Light Pink) Charlie Gonzales (D) Downtown San Antonio. 72% Hispanic.

Contraction. Sam shape, just loses a few precincts on each side.

TX-21 (Burnt Red) Lamar Smith (R) North Bexar County, Hayes County, McMullen County. 57% White.

WHAT IS THIS THING?!?!?! The most altered district in Texas is what it is. North San Antonio is the only part that is the same. It adds barely democratic Hayes county, and lost of other rural counties on the east side of Austin/San Antonio . My surprise was how far south it had to reach to get enough voters.

TX-22 (Dirt Brown) Pete Olson (R) Fort Bend County, North Brazoria County, Wharton, Austin, Waller Counties and Far West Harris County (including Katy). 58% White.

TX-22 gives up on Galveston county and lots of the urban parts of Fort Bend. In exchange it reaches out of Houston and goes for rural lands. The Addition of Katy in Houston is the most straight ticket republicans you can find, anywhere.

TX-23 (Sea Blue) Ciro Rodriguez (D) South Bexar County, Rural lands to El Paso, Del Rio. 67% Hispanic.

Goodbye white northern precincts in Bexar county, hello safe Dem seat for Ciro.

TX-24 (Purple) Kenny Marchant (R). North East Tarrant County.

Goodbye Dallas, Goodbye Denton. Yes, I know Kenny lives in Denton, but he’s gonna have to move, his district moved fast, and he’s going to have to as well. Southlake, Grapevine, etc will cancel out the addition of downtown Fort Worth precincts.

TX-25 (Pink) Lloyd Doggett (D). Austin 43% White, 41% Hispanic.

So much for the 2002 plans to split up Austin, Rep. Doggett comes home and represents the White liberals in his new condensed district.

TX-26 (Grey) Michael Burgess (R) Denton and Cooke Counties. 68% White.

Burgess is going to be real safe for a real long time with this district. All of Denton and Cooke, Burns all of Tarrant.

TX-27 (Gak Green) Solomon Ortiz (D) Corpus Christie to Brownsville. 71% Hispanic.

Grabs all of San Patricio county, besides that, pretty much the same.

TX-28 (Lavender) Henry Cuellar (D) Laredo, Maverick County, Jim Wells County, and North Hidalgo County. 92% Hispanic.

TX-28 grabs a lot of the rural land that was previously held by TX-15. It’s rural growth, but it is still a safe valley seat.

TX-29 (Grey Green) Gene Green (D) East Downtown Houston. 76% Hispanic.

I don’t know if Gene Green can be dislodged via a primary, but this is a safe Democratic district that will elect a Hispanic should he retire in the next decade. Eliminated Baytown.

TX-30 (Peachy) E.B. Johnson (D) South Dallas, Bits around Garland. 42% Black, 35% Hispanic

TX-30 is still an african American district thanks to Duncanville, but it won’t be by 2020. It trades a lot of land around Garland with TX-32 to still be a safe Dem seat.

TX-31 (Goldenrod) John Carter (R) Williamson County, Killeen, College Station. 63% White.

Williamson is moving blue, but the College Station parts should offset it through the decade. Carter is not be vulnerable to a democrat, but he may be vulnerable to an Aggie challenge (see TX-17 rant)

TX-32 (Orange) Pete Sessions (R) Richardson, Garland, Rowlett 62% White.

I don’t know how I did it, but I made a safe Republican TX-32. All the suburbs, all the mansions, none of the risk. Loses West Dallas, gains from TX-5 on the East Side.

TX-33 (Blue) NEW (D) Corckett Hill, West Dallas, Irving. 66% Hispanic.

Safe new Dem seat. Get ready to say “Rep. Rafael Anchia,” if he is not mayor of Dallas by then.

TX-34 (Glowing Green) NEW (R) Clear Lake, North Galveston County, Humble. 58% White.

If Katy is the most Republican part of Harris County, this is the second most. North Galveston is getting whiter and more Republican and Clear Lake continues to hold NASA and the white collar engineers and mansions. It may get closer near the end of the decade due to growth on the north side, but this one will be R and stay that way due to straight ticket voters. Likely new Rep: State Rep. Larry Taylor of Friendswood.

TX-35 (Bright Purple) NEW (R) West Travis County, Northwest Bexar county, Comal County, Llano, Kerrville. 72% White.

Very Republican, very rural with growing exurbs. Don’t let the Travis county parts fool you, that is the swing part of the county. New Rep will be . . .a Republican, who knows.

Conclusion:

20R-12R is going to become 23R-12D. However, even if the republicans controlled the process in 2020, I don’t think they can make more R seats. Hispanics are moving in, and they are taking over. Who knows, by 2020, they might actually start voting.

Let me know what you all think!

Georgia Republican Gerrymander

This is the second of my Georgia maps. I've already done a Democratic gerrymander. In this edition, I tried to think like a Georgia Republican (but failed because I'm not that damn crazy or evil). With the fate of the VRA seemingly in doubt, I went ahead and discounted it, using only the requirements of contiguousness and equal population and political realities in shaping the districts (because there's no way the Republicans could get a 14-0 Georgia delegation short of epic measures).

My “goals” for this round were:

To protect John Linder, who's Gwinnett-based district is rapidly diversifying from black, Hispanic, and Asian growth and taking on some liberal whites as well, as seen in long-term trends toward our side.
To ensure the long term (at least to the next round of redistricting) sustainability of the other Republican districts.
To make the new district a Republican district.
To try to eliminate as many Democrats as possible.
To try to avoid primary battles within the Republican Party.
To make the districts look as nice as possible.

I think I achieved these goals with the following districts:

Metro Atlanta: Metro

The major non-Atlanta regional population centers (Athens, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, and Savannah) all get a district to themselves and their surrounding areas, intact, without sharing with another major city.

The first of the Republican pickups comes in coastal Georgia. Chatham County (Savannah) is made whole, putting Jack Kingston and John Barrow in the same district. Kingston has a decided advantage here. Of the seventeen counties in the new district, Barrow represents only three, one of which is a major thorn in his side. He loses his secondary base in the Augusta area and picks up several rural/exurban, white, and VERY Republican counties. Kingston, on the other hand, has much of his old district intact. Barrow has struggled before in a far more minority, far more Democratic district. His ability to survive here is very much in doubt. His only saving grace would be his fundraising prowress.

With the 2nd, I essentially pushed the district over, cutting Bishop off from his secondary base in the Columbus area and instead moving the district east, taking up large swarths of white, Republican, rural areas. While we're used to Bishop winning easily, he has had trouble in less Democratic districts. And not only does the change in direction (from the Georgia-Florida-Alabama border east instead of from the Florida border to Columbus) make the district more Republican but it also, as would be expected, makes for a larger Republican bench and a smaller Democratic bench, increasing the chances of a higher tier Republican emerging while decreasing the chances of a higher tier Democrat emerging when Bishop hangs it up (or gets defeated).

The loss of parts of North Fulton and Cherokee to sure up Linder next door and the fact that some parts of the district are shaky (North DeKalb and Sandy Springs) necesitated moving the 6th down into the white, Republican parts of Atlanta on the northside. Short of something major, Price should be okay

In the four maps I've made for Georgia, I always have trouble with the Nineth because we don't yet know who's going to be the Congressman. The map I made tries to put the all of the potential candiates into the district (sans State Rep. Bobby Reese, who entered after I made this map and who doesn't lIVe in the current district anyways). The new district has the same general shape but sheds all of Forsyth, Lumpkin, Union, White Counties, as well as about 45% of Hall County (done to keep the Tenth from getting too mishapen. In return, it gains all of Chattooga County, the parts of Gordon County originally in the Eleventh, and the Northern parts of Bartow and Floyd Counties. In sum, it becomes more rural.

Not a huge change in shape, the 11th compacts somewhat and shifts south a bit, shedding Chattooga, its parts of Gordon, and the Northern halves of Floyd and Bartow in return for picking up the southern half of Carroll and the western half of Douglas. In sum, it becomes more suburban. Unfortunately, these are not the suburbs that are trending our way at any speed (or at all).

With John Barrow set to lose in the new 1st and Paul Broun getting an Athens-Northeast Georgia district, Republicans can placate the Augusta-area Republicans. While including Augusta-Richmond County and other small blue and purple counties (e.g. Burke, Screven), they're more than outweighed by the the red areas in the Atlanta exurbs, Northeast Georgia, etc. And even if Barrow decides to run here instead, he'll still have a district stacked against him racially (he's had trouble in far less white districts AND will be carpetbagging for the second time in four cycles.

Due to population increases, the 13th loses its territory in DeKalb and Henry, but remains mostly the same otherwise. It falls just short of being majority-black. So, it would take just a little reshuffling to get it to that point if the Republicans end up getting smacked for diluting black voting strenght elsewhere (or feel the need to shore up other districts). Scott will be safe.

Although unintended, this district bears a strong resemblance to John Douglas' state senate district.

I think a lesson to take from this is that ostensible communities of interest and clean lines making geometric districts can really fuck us over and an unwillingness to cross political and geographic boundaries can really kill us.

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Georgia Republican Gerrymander

My “goals” for this round were:

To protect John Linder, who's Gwinnett-based district is rapidly diversifying from black, Hispanic, and Asian growth and taking on some liberal whites as well, as seen in long-term trends toward our side.
To ensure the long term (at least to the next round of redistricting) sustainability of the other Republican districts.
To make the new district a Republican district.
To try to eliminate as many Democrats as possible.
To try to avoid primary battles within the Republican Party.
To make the districts look as nice as possible.

I think I achieved these goals with the following districts:

Metro Atlanta: Metro

Redistricting Georgia – Inside the Mind of a Republican

I set out to draw what the post-census congressional districts of Georgia might look like if we fail to win the governorship or take back one of the houses of the state legislature. I get nauseous when I look at this map, so I think I did a decent job. After all is said and done, this map will probably elect four Democrats and ten Republicans.

When the Republicans DeLaymandered Texas, they mainly targeted moderate, white Democrats, and I think the Republicans in Georgia will probably try the same thing, so Jim Marshall and John Barrow are toast under this map. The other two goals of the Republicans will most likely be to hog the new 14th district for themselves, and to make sure John Linder’s district won’t have trended out from under him by the year 2022, especially since he will most likely retire before then.

Without further ado, here are the pictures.

Northern Georgia:

Southern Georgia:

Greater Atlanta:

District 2 (Sanford Bishop vs. Jim Marshall):

District 5 (John Barrow):

District 1 – Jack Kingston (Light Blue) – Kingston’s district picks up some of Savannah’s African-American residents in order to remove them from Barrow’s district, and it shrinks somewhat in size, but this district should still be safe for him.

District 2 – Sanford Bishop vs. Jim Marshall (Dark Green) – While the old 2nd District was majority white and confined to Southwest Georgia, the new 2nd is majority-black and sprawls from Columbus to Augusta, and includes both Sanford Bishop’s home in Albany and Jim Marshall’s home in Macon. I think Bishop is an overwhelming favorite here, because it contains much more of his former territory than Marshall’s, and because he is African-American, which is always a plus when you’re running in a majority black district. If Marshall wants to stay in public life, he would probably want to either move to the 10th or 14th and run there, or retire and plan to either run for Senate or Governor in 2014.

District 3 – Lynn Westmoreland (Dark Purple) – Lynn Westmoreland’s loses Henry County and its portion of Douglas County, and picks up some territory near the Alabama border, as well as Monroe County. It is probably even more Republican than it is in its current form.

District 4 – TBD (Red) – With Nathan Deal running for Governor, I have no idea who this district’s representative will be, but unless hell freezes over, they will be a Republican who can stand to be weakened a bit, since Deal’s current district has a PVI of R+28! This district gets a new number (it used to be the 9th), and picks up part of Gwinnett County, while shedding some territory in the North Georgia Mountains. This district may look different, depending on where Deal’s replacement lives.

District 5 – John Barrow (Yellow) – This district is drawn for the sole purpose of defeating John Barrow. Barrow loses many of his African-American constituents to the 2nd, and to a lesser extent, the 1st. On top of that, there is a tendril that extends into some deeply conservative areas to the north of Augusta. Barrow will have a tough time holding this one.

District 6 – Tom Price (Teal) – This district, which was once represented by Newt Gingrich, changes very little, losing a small section of North Fulton, as well as Dunwoody, in DeKalb County, to the 7th district. Population growth is sufficient that it doesn’t take in any new territory.

District 7 – John Linder (Gray) – In an attempt to make sure Gwinnett County’s trend in our direction doesn’t imperil John Linder, this district loses much of Gwinnett to the 4th District (formerly the 9th), and to the new 14th. To compensate for this, it picks up small sections of North Fulton, as well as Dunwoody, from the 6th, and picks up Forsyth County, which gave McCain 79% of the vote.

District 8 – Hank Johnson (Periwinkle) – The only thing that really changes about this district, aside from the number,(it used to be the 4th), is that it no longer includes Rockdale County. Hank Johnson will be in congress for as long as he likes, assuming he learned a lesson from his predecessor and gives the Capitol Police their space.

District 9 – Phil Gingrey (Bright Blue) – This district contains a little bit more of Cobb County than it used to, and a little bit less rural territory along the Alabama border, but it is still a Republican stronghold. However, it is renumbered. (It used to be the 11th).

District 10 – OPEN (Hot Pink) – This district’s main population center is Warner Robins, a conservative city with a strong military presence. However, this district is mostly rural and is composed of Republican areas taken from the districts of Jack Kingston, Sanford Bishop, and Jim Marshall. Marshall might run here, but historically he hasn’t performed too well in the turf here that was formerly in his district. This is probably a likely pickup for the Republicans.

District 11 – John Lewis (Radioactive Green)- John Lewis’s district is still a majority-black Democratic stronghold, but it gets a new number, and some territory in Cobb County that was previously represented by David Scott.

District 12 – Paul Broun (Indigo) – Despite containing Athens, the 12th (formerly the 10th) is heavily Republican, thanks to its territory in North Georgia. Broun is safe here.

District 13 – David Scott (Salmon) – This district stays very similar in shape, but is now majority black as opposed to majority minority.

District 14 – OPEN (Greenish Brown) – This is the new district. Although it includes Rockdale County, which Obama won, and Henry County, which has been trending our way, as well as part of Gwinnett County, it also includes Walton and Barrow Counties, which are exurban and heavily Republican, as well as some heavily Republican rural areas. This district might be competitive someday, but for now it should go Republican. It wouldn’t surprise me to see former Rep. Mac Collins try and make a comeback here. Marshall could also conceivably run here, but he hasn’t done well in the section of his current district that is in this new district, and would be an underdog.

P.S. I don’t know as much about the Voting Rights Act as I should, so if you know how it might affect this map, be sure to let me know.