Author: trowaman

For those of you who saw the State of the Union last night, you may remember Obama said he was heading to Florida today to talk about a high speed rail project that was starting today. Well, the addendum here is Gov. Crist, Republican candidate for US Senate, is appearing with The President at the ground breaking ceremony.

Crist took a political pounding for standing with Obama a year ago for promoting the stimulus project. It is now a year later and Crist is doing the same thing all over again. Crist has some political smarts, there would have to be a real reason for him making such a poor political move as he’s beginning to sink in his upcoming primary election. The New Republic is now asking openly if Crist is thinking about changing parties.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonath…

I went over to Crist’s website in mid-December (it has changed since then) and noticed there was not much in way of being a conservative with “Republican,” and “GOP” being nowhere to be found and “conservative” listed only once in reference to his fiscal policies (and really, who does NOT run as a “fiscal conservative” these days?).

There was also no issue page in December. There is one now and the issues listed seem rather . . . sensible. The only red flag I see, as a Democrat, is opposition to the Health Care reform bill.

So, what say the lot of ya? Is Crist about to bolt the GOP and join Team Blue?*

*I put my lot down in mid December and said he would join the Dems by Valentine’s Day, so I am a YES. May be a little later than Valentine’s Day, but I’m standing by my prediction.

Nathaniel90’s diary motivated me to make my own Republican gerrymander of Texas. By the time I was done, I was kinda shocked at how “ugly” some of my districts looked, notably TX-7, TX-8, and TX-10 all reaching into downtown Houston to dilute a new minority district, and how TX-21, TX-17, TX-10, and a new Republican TX-35 were snaked across central Texas so as to keep all these seats in Republican control for 10 years and likely dislodge Edwards. My inspiration here was a comment by TXMichael to separate Bell, Williamson, and McLennan into three different districts. Originally I was going to allow Edwards to be “safe” and create a district for him out of these three counties and Travis, but I think the TX Republican party is more likely to try something like this.

TX-7 is the most “at risk” GOP district in the state at 56% White. Most GOP districts are close to 60% white. All Democratic seats, except the Travis county based TX-25 are over 75% minority.

Full State, Top Half

Full State, Bottom Half

El Paso

Dallas/Fort Worth This is what I am the most proud of. Sessions and Marchant are safe, and a new Democratic seat is made on Dallas’ west side.

Harris CountyA new Republican seat is made. I’m shocked at how I had to have TX-7, TX-8 and TX-10 reach into downtown to grab leftover minority precincts. If a 36th seat comes around, I think this is where it’s going to go providing an extra buffer for TX-7 and TX-34 (TX-2, TX-29, and TX-34 are all green and border each other, sorry)

Travis County

Bexar County

Central Texas OMG! What did I do to TX-10, TX-17, TX-21, TX-31, and TX-35? I eliminated Chet Edwards with a can not win district and made a new rural Republican seat. Sucks to be Chet, I guess the Republicans can make things worse.

Districts in Review:

TX-1 (Blue): Louie Gohmert (R)  Smith County, Nacadoches, and northern East Texas. 67% White

Contracts in size, loses a few counties, but still the same East Texas district full of people JSmith does not tolerate 😛

TX-2 (Dark Green): Ted Poe (R) Far East Harris County, Beaumont, and Jasper. 65% White

Loses some Harris County precincts and expands to become mostly based out of East Texas grabbing all of Jefferson county and several other rural East Texas counties.

TX-3 (Purple): Sam Johnson (R) Collin County, Plano. 65% White

Contract, contract, contract. Loses all Dallas precincts and grabs a handful of new Collin county precincts in exchange.

TX-4 (Red): Ralph Hall (R) Rural Colin County, Rockwall County, Paris. 75% White

Almost no changes. Only changes were the addition of Wood County and Loss of all of Cass County.

TX-5 (Yellow): Jeb Hensarling (R) Mesquite, Grand Prairie, Ellis County, Athens County. 60% White.

Hensarling’s district rotates clockwise in Dallas county, losing some of the stuff on his north end and reaches around to the southwest corner. Additionally, the addition of Ellis county gives TX-5 a rural county with a large population.

TX-6 (Sea Green): Joe Barton (R) Arlington, Johnson County. 59% White

In Tarrant, TX-6 grabs a little more of downtown. The rest of the district is entirely different. Gone is the I-45 stretch to Centervile, instead the Heavy straight-ticket GOP county of Johnson is added.

TX-7 (Grey): John Culberson (R) West Houston. 56% White

The most “vulnerable” GOP district in the state. relatively the same, bleeds some precincts out of Jersey Village and few more out of Spring Village. Grabs some new precincts out of West University Place and Bellaire.

TX-8 (Deep Purple): Kevin Brady (R) The Woodlands, West Downtown Houston. 64% White

The first “special” district. TX-8 gives up all of the rural East Texas districts (no more Jim Turner to dislodge) and now reaches it’s tentacle from Montgomery county into downtown Houston grabbing as many leftover minority districts as it can find.

TX-9 (Light Blue): Al Green (D) Southwest Houston, Rosenburg. 32% Black, 29% Hispanic, 24% White

TX-9 begins a run towards Fort Bend County. Despite the Delay reputation left with Sugarland and Fort Bend, Obama got 49% in this County. TX-9 reaches to Rosenburg to grab all the minority precincts to make a safe TX-22.

TX-10 (Bright Pink): Mike McCaul (R) Northeast Travis, North Harris, Downtown Houston, Temple. 59% White

The next special district. A lot of this would be easier is McCaul did not live in Travis County. Some Travis counties were shed, as was Burleson, Austin, and some of Waller county. The district gains by grabbing those other minoirty precincts in Harris that TX-8 could not get and reach around College Station to Bell County and grabs as much as it can from this shifting democratic county.

TX-11 (Lime Green): Mike Conaway (R) San Angelo, Midland, Odessa. 57% White

Not many changes.Grabs Coryell and Hamilton County, burns Kimble, Mason, Llano, and Gillespie.

TX-12 (Blue): Kay Granger (R) North West Tarrant County. 59% White.

Not much change. Loses some land to TX-6 and takes some downtown precincts from TX-24.

TX-13 (Peach): Mac Thornberry (R) Panhandle. 67% White.

Loses no land, grabs a handful of new counties, including Deaf Smith, Archer, Young, and Castro, and Parmer.

TX-14 (Safari Green): Ron Paul (R) Galveston, Aransas, La Grange. 55% White

Om nom nom, land. TX-14 grows and grows a lot. Goodbye Wharton county, hello I-10 corridor and lands north of Corpus Christie. Don’t let the low numbers of Whites fool you, this is libertarian land that loves Ron Paul crazies.

TX-15 (Orange): Ruben Hinojosa (D) McAllen, Harlengen. 87% Hispanic.

If TX-14 was scarfing food, TX-15 is bulimic. It contracts to just these two cities.

TX-16 (Nuclear Green) Sylvester Reyes (D) El Paso. 81% Hispanic

I think it bleed 3 precincts total. No change.

TX-17 (Dark Purple) Chet Edwards (D) Waco, Hood County, Corsicana, Huntsville, San Jacinto County. 67% White.

Okay, Chet Edwards should have been eliminated in 2004, but he wasn’t and he’s a BAMF. The addition of College Station should have finished him off, except the legislature forgot Aggies are idiots (if you live in Texas, you know the jokes and you are laughing) and will vote for someone only if they wear their A&M class ring. First thing to do, get rid of A&M. He now has Sam Houston University in Huntsville and the entire backwoods region north of Houston. My only regret with this district? Getting rid of Johnson county, maybe I should have kept Johnson and eliminated Hood instead. Oh well . . . Either ways, behold the end of Rep. Edwards.

TX-18 (Yellow) Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) Downtown Houston. 51% Black, 34% Hispanic

Grabs a lot of area on the South side of Houston and burns stuff near Jersey Village. I’m surprised I got a 51% black district.

TX-19 (Puke Green) Randy Neugenbauer (R) Rural West Texas, Lubbock. 61% White.

Grabs Erath and Andrews County, not many other changes

TX-20 (Light Pink) Charlie Gonzales (D) Downtown San Antonio. 72% Hispanic.

Contraction. Sam shape, just loses a few precincts on each side.

TX-21 (Burnt Red) Lamar Smith (R) North Bexar County, Hayes County, McMullen County. 57% White.

WHAT IS THIS THING?!?!?! The most altered district in Texas is what it is. North San Antonio is the only part that is the same. It adds barely democratic Hayes county, and lost of other rural counties on the east side of Austin/San Antonio . My surprise was how far south it had to reach to get enough voters.

TX-22 (Dirt Brown) Pete Olson (R) Fort Bend County, North Brazoria County, Wharton, Austin, Waller Counties and Far West Harris County (including Katy). 58% White.

TX-22 gives up on Galveston county and lots of the urban parts of Fort Bend. In exchange it reaches out of Houston and goes for rural lands. The Addition of Katy in Houston is the most straight ticket republicans you can find, anywhere.

TX-23 (Sea Blue) Ciro Rodriguez (D) South Bexar County, Rural lands to El Paso, Del Rio. 67% Hispanic.

Goodbye white northern precincts in Bexar county, hello safe Dem seat for Ciro.

TX-24 (Purple) Kenny Marchant (R). North East Tarrant County.

Goodbye Dallas, Goodbye Denton. Yes, I know Kenny lives in Denton, but he’s gonna have to move, his district moved fast, and he’s going to have to as well. Southlake, Grapevine, etc will cancel out the addition of downtown Fort Worth precincts.

TX-25 (Pink) Lloyd Doggett (D). Austin 43% White, 41% Hispanic.

So much for the 2002 plans to split up Austin, Rep. Doggett comes home and represents the White liberals in his new condensed district.

TX-26 (Grey) Michael Burgess (R) Denton and Cooke Counties. 68% White.

Burgess is going to be real safe for a real long time with this district. All of Denton and Cooke, Burns all of Tarrant.

TX-27 (Gak Green) Solomon Ortiz (D) Corpus Christie to Brownsville. 71% Hispanic.

Grabs all of San Patricio county, besides that, pretty much the same.

TX-28 (Lavender) Henry Cuellar (D) Laredo, Maverick County, Jim Wells County, and North Hidalgo County. 92% Hispanic.

TX-28 grabs a lot of the rural land that was previously held by TX-15. It’s rural growth, but it is still a safe valley seat.

TX-29 (Grey Green) Gene Green (D) East Downtown Houston. 76% Hispanic.

I don’t know if Gene Green can be dislodged via a primary, but this is a safe Democratic district that will elect a Hispanic should he retire in the next decade. Eliminated Baytown.

TX-30 (Peachy) E.B. Johnson (D) South Dallas, Bits around Garland. 42% Black, 35% Hispanic

TX-30 is still an african American district thanks to Duncanville, but it won’t be by 2020. It trades a lot of land around Garland with TX-32 to still be a safe Dem seat.

TX-31 (Goldenrod) John Carter (R) Williamson County, Killeen, College Station. 63% White.

Williamson is moving blue, but the College Station parts should offset it through the decade. Carter is not be vulnerable to a democrat, but he may be vulnerable to an Aggie challenge (see TX-17 rant)

TX-32 (Orange) Pete Sessions (R) Richardson, Garland, Rowlett 62% White.

I don’t know how I did it, but I made a safe Republican TX-32. All the suburbs, all the mansions, none of the risk. Loses West Dallas, gains from TX-5 on the East Side.

TX-33 (Blue) NEW (D) Corckett Hill, West Dallas, Irving. 66% Hispanic.

Safe new Dem seat. Get ready to say “Rep. Rafael Anchia,” if he is not mayor of Dallas by then.

TX-34 (Glowing Green) NEW (R) Clear Lake, North Galveston County, Humble. 58% White.

If Katy is the most Republican part of Harris County, this is the second most. North Galveston is getting whiter and more Republican and Clear Lake continues to hold NASA and the white collar engineers and mansions. It may get closer near the end of the decade due to growth on the north side, but this one will be R and stay that way due to straight ticket voters. Likely new Rep: State Rep. Larry Taylor of Friendswood.

TX-35 (Bright Purple) NEW (R) West Travis County, Northwest Bexar county, Comal County, Llano, Kerrville. 72% White.

Very Republican, very rural with growing exurbs. Don’t let the Travis county parts fool you, that is the swing part of the county. New Rep will be . . .a Republican, who knows.

Conclusion:

20R-12R is going to become 23R-12D. However, even if the republicans controlled the process in 2020, I don’t think they can make more R seats. Hispanics are moving in, and they are taking over. Who knows, by 2020, they might actually start voting.

Let me know what you all think!

The Texas House is supposed to be one of our top priorities in 2010, however as of this morning it just got that much harder. Long time state representative Chuck Hopson announced he would be seeking re-election as a Republican.

Now, re-election for Hopson was going to be difficult. He barely scraped by in 2008 with 26, 042 votes (49.3%) over his republican opponent who got 25,928 votes (49.1%). At the same time Obama got clobbered in Hopson’s district 11 collecting only 27.5% of the vote to McCain’s 71.9%.

Hopson’s statement on switching parties is short, sweet, and shallow.

President Obama and the Democrats in Congress just don’t reflect the values of this district.”

Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie released the following statement.

It takes strength and integrity to stand against the special interests – and while some members have that strength, others like Chuck Hopson, apparently do not. In the Democratic Party, there is room for members who are conservative and progressive – the only reason anyone would leave is for crass political reasons and a refusal to stand up to special interests.

Democrats lost three seats they previously controlled in 2008, one of them being an open seat with similar demographics to district 11, located in the area between San Antonio and Houston. Going into 2010, Democrats have another rural open seat near Withita Falls that is currently held by David Farabee. With Farabee and Hopson gone, the number of rural, white democrats in Texas are dropping precariously. I’m not sure how many are left now besides Mark Homer, Joe Heflin, and Stephen Frost.

Republicans now control the Texas House 77-73.

Resources:

Hopson’s district map – http://www.house.state.tx.us/m…

Source – http://www.texastribune.org/st…

I just got back from a dual county fish fry between Denton and Collin county Democratic parties, and no I didn’t have the fish, I despise seafood.

Anyways, the speakers for the evening were Mayor Bill White, Former Comptroller John Sharp, Ambassador Schieffer, and candidate for TX-26 Neil Durrance. Before I go on, let me say I had already decided I was backing White for Senate, but I will try and be fair in my analysis (even if it sounds one sided, it’s how I saw it).

In Speaker order:

John Sharp for US Senate – Came across folksy and of the East Texas variety. Dry stump speech. Still, he’s starting charismatically at the level that Chris Bell finished in 2006, which is good enough to pass as a candidate. Got much better in the Q&A when he somehow started talking about the economy on a question that was about Iraqi withdrawal.

Bill White for US Senate – Best speaker of the night and it showed afterwards with the crowds that gathered around him afterwards. Very charismatic and as a candidate sounded like he was in a whole different world than the rest of tonight’s speakers and those from 2006 and 2008 (If Chris Bell at the end of the 2006 gov race was a jump from Bell at the beginning, and Noriega was a jump from that, White is a jump 3 times in candidate quality on the stump). White’s speech, unlike what I heard from the other candidates and what I heard from previous statewide candidates focused much more on policy and results rather than “we are right and we’re democrats, yadda yadda yadda, let’s go win!” But that’s what you get when you have a high level office holder running for a higher office. He also mentioned that his Q2 financial report should show he has more total donors this quarter than that of all the announced republicans combined. Additionally, White opened his speech with what I assume was a dig at Cornyn saying Texas needs a Senator who gets to work rather than working on helping their political party.

Neil Durrance for TX-26 – I’ve known Neil for a few years when he was county chairman for Denton county. Neil has said some odd things and is a bit odd himself, however, Neil The Candidate seems to be inclined to watch his tongue a bit better. Also, he is miles above the previous challengers for Burgess such as the old crazy guy (2008, Ken Leach), the crazy guy (2006, Tim Barnwell), and the professional clown whose highlight is that he got to hold his clown show for Christopher Reeve once (2004, Lico Reyes). Neil seems to be the first guy in this race who won’t embarrass Denton County Democrats since I started going to school up here. I think he can crack the 40% barrier in a CD-26 race which none of the previous candidates have done.

Tom Schieffer for Governor – Schieffer carries himself very well and I could see him as a governor. His speech focused a lot on education and how his time in Asia as Bush’s ambassador to Japan made him realize how far Texas was slipping in everything. While he is Bush’s friend, he is certainly not friends with Perry or Hutchison and seems eager to take them both on regarding economics. White and Sharp both spoke highly of Schieffer, so he seems to have the establishment support locked up, as a result my hopes of a Jim Turner candidacy seem to have died tonight. I also kinda doubt State Sen. Van Deputt or Travis County DA Ronnie Earle will jump in for Gov (although Lt. Gov and Attorney General are still available). Overall, very bland, but it looks like he’s it and seems fair enough to carry the banner. How the Senate special election ends up will result in how much attention Schieffer gets in his race.

Update: To summarize the themes of each candidate:

Sharp: Its the economy, and we’re going broke. Also, I’ll drop some code words that I may be the more socially liberal candidate.

White: I fixed Houston and rarely had a party line vote when I was Mayor. The future is education and energy investment.

Durrance: Reach out to independents and bring them into the process not because we’re Democrats, but because we are right.

Schieffer: I can manage businesses, The Texas Rangers, and the state of Texas where it starts with education. Also, being good for business goes beyond tax cuts.

Alright, that’s it. Let me know what ya’ll think and give me some questions if you can think of them. Hurry, my memory is going fast in my old age of 24!

Update2

I’m going to copy something said by my friend John McClelland in a comment on Burnt Orange Report. John was the Democratic nominee for Texas House District 64 (City of Denton) in 2008.

“I don’t want politicians who live in the past. When I listened to Scheiffer, and even John Sharp, it is like a frat boy talking about the good ol’ days that they want everyone else to relive. Unfortunately, we don’t live in the 70s and 80s anymore, and living in the past is what killed the Democratic Party in the first place.”

This kind of attitude/content came across in the Sharp and Schieffer speeches which may have helped present them as being a bit more boring compared to that of Mayor White’s. There is a very real stuck in the past mindset with a lot of the big names in Texas democratic politics. Heck, even Chris Bell couldn’t give a speech without mentioning how he filed an ethics complaint against Tom DeLay when he served in the House. I still think this is an important comment though addressing where Schieffer and Sharp are coming from compared to White.

http://www.courant.com/news/po…

Titles says it all really. SImmons is officially in. If I was Sen. Dodd, I would consider retirement and let A.G. Richard Blumenthal or Rep. Chris Murphy have a crack at it.

Tough break for team blue. Still, if defense is only Connecticut and Deleware if Castle enters (Nevada GOP has no bench and the best of the Colorado GOP has passed) this still looks like a decent cycle for us. Dem +3 would be enough to let us run roughshod with our agenda for two years.

I’ll admit it, my jaw dropped when I read it. Republicans control every statewide office in Texas along with the State Senate (19-12) and State House (by a very narrow 76-74 margin), so why would they consider giving up full control over congressional redistricting, or a commanding 4 out of 5 places at the redistricting table should the State House shift further in 2010? After all, this is Texas, land of the DeLay-mander.

But it’s true. A bill introduced by State Senator Jeff Wentworth (R! – North San Antonio/South Austin) is designed to give control of congressional redistricting to an independent panel. The bill has previously passed the State Senate twice but has failed in the State House because former Speaker Tom Craddick said so (no really, this is a good example of how he operated and why he needed to go). New Speaker Joe Straus (R-North San Antonio) seems interested.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/bl…

Sen. Jeff Wentworth’s redistricting commission bill, which has passed the Texas Senate twice, has a fighting chance this session since Tom Craddick’s no longer speaker.

Wentworth, who presented his bill to the Senate State Affairs Committee, tells me he has confirmed pledges from six of nine Senate committee members to vote for his plan to turn congressional redistricting over to an independent commission. He gave a compelling – if lengthy – argument at State Affairs today for a new congressional redistricting mechanism, noting that lawmakers of both parties have been guilty of overreaching, vengeful actions that lead inexorably to expensive court appeals every decade.

He’s optimistic about his chances in the House, since it died there last session since “Craddick personally killed it.”  Here’s the story: Wentworth had pledges from more than a majority of the House committee, but chairman Joe Crabb told him Craddick had instructed him to sit on the bill. Wentworth then collected signatures form 20 House chairman in support of his bill, but Craddick wouldn’t relent. Why? Wentworth says Craddick instructed him to go read  “Craddick vs. Smith” – a 30-year-old lawsuit over Craddick’s mistreatment during redistricting at the hands of Democrats. (Wentworth’s bill doesn’t touch legislative redistricting, but oh well, ….)

Wentworth also claims that Gov. Rick Perry “wants to sign this bill.”

If this passes, the previous maps that have been discussed could be trashed, and in 2012 we could realistically see a congressional delegation from Texas made up of 16 Democrats and 20 Republicans.

Texas went for McCain, big whoop. But the real story is in the margins. George W. Bush carried Texas over John Kerry by a 61%-38% margin. Four years later John McCain has carried the Lone Star state by a comparatively weak 55%-44%. The gap has shrunk by 12% points in the democrats favor.

Here’s the quick scorecard post election day:

US Senate: Cornyn 55%-43%, no change

US House: Dems – 1 for 20 R – 12 D

State Senate: Dems +1 for 18 R – 12 D and 1 outstanding (R defense)

State House: Dems +3 for 75 R – 74 D and 1 outstanding (R defense)

Dallas County moves to hard democratic, from weak democratic

Harris County (Houston) emerges as a purple county from solid republican

Tarrant County (Fort Worth) reflects the state as a whole

Bexar County (San Antonio) has a slight democratic lean

Travis County (Austin) is a liberal bastion of democrats

U.S. Senate

Rick Noriega was underfunded in his campaign. That is the first thing to say in “what went wrong.” However, I have seen some people suggesting that we could have recruited better. Considering the depth of our bench and how well (or poorly) seasoned it is in Texas, I disagree. The results form the senate race almost matched the presidential results, so this was in no way a vote of confidence for Sen. Cornyn. So, where can Rep. Noriega go from here? I have heard rumors that he is interested in more of an executive position. The obvious positions that emerge are Lt. Governor and Harris County Judge (more on that later).

U.S. House

I lost my Congressman. It sucks. More importantly, the loss of Nick Lampson is a body blow for NASA in the next congress as there are no diehard supporters of NASA in the U.S. House who hold any seniority. I’m hoping Rep. Lampson gets an appointment by the administration relating to space and aeronautics. A statewide run is not in his future because in all honesty, his campaign teams from both 2006 an 2008 were not run as the well oiled machines that several other successful campaigns have been.

A quick note on Chet Edwards won re-election against a tier 4 for opponent by a 53%-45% margin. This is a reminder, he will never be safe in the current TX-17 and it is imperative why we need to take control of the state house.

My condolences to Larry Joe Doehrty and Michael Skelly. Both were great candidates but could not overcome their districts’ PVIs, where the dial only moved a few percentage points in their favor.

Pete Sessions won re-election by the exact same margin he did in 2006 and Kenny Marchant lost several points this time around. Keep your eyes on these two, TX-24 and TX-32 may have life in them.

State Senate

WENDY DAIVS (D) WON SD-10!!!! This district is completely confined within Tarrant County and was held by cigar chomper Kim Brimer (R). Brimer spent most of the spring and summer suing Wendy to try and keep her off the ballot, he failed at least three times. I interned for Wendy last spring, and I am so proud of her, she also has the potential and background to go statewide if she wants to. There are more US Congressional district in Texas than there are state senate seats, so I doubt the Congress will be in her future. More importantly, the filibuster line for the Texas Senate was 11 members. There are now at least 12 Democrats. Good news.

Meanwhile, the special election in SD-17 will be finalized in December. Fmr Congressman Chris Bell (D) will finish off Fmr Judge Joan Huffman (R) then. A Republican spoiler filed as a democrat in the special and took 13% of the vote. Her total combined with Bell’s would have been well over 50%. If we win this come December Dems will be at 13 Senators and +2 overall. We’re not done.

State House

We lost three of our own seats, including two incumbents and one open seat. Juan Garcia (D) was elected against a corrupt R in 2006 and Dan Barrett (D) was elected in a special in late 2007. The open seat was in rural areas near College Station (home of Texas A&M). Garcia and Barrett were great guys but they both have a future somewhere in Texas politics if they really want it.

Alright, post-mortem over, we picked up six seats so far. The winners are as follows:

HD-52 (Williamson County, Round Rock) – Maldonado (D) wins an open seat 48.6%-47.4%

HD-78 (El Paso) – Joe Moody (D) wins open seat 51.5%-45.1%

HD-96 (Tarrant County) – Chris Turner beats hard right ideologue Bill Zedler 51.2%-46.6%

HD-101 (Dallas County, Mesquite) Robert Mikos (D) wins open seat 50.6%-49.3%

HD-102 (Dallas) – Carol Kent (D) beats long time incumbent Tony Goolsby 53.0%-47.0%

HD-133 (Harris) – Kristi Thibaut (D) beats Jim Murphy 50.6%-49.4%

Overall theme of the winners? Public education. Kent and Maldonado both have experience in public schools and all the rest had public education as part of their platform. Miklos and Thibaut were both surprising wins even though they were both expected to be close. Moody is 25 years old so expect to hear more from him later on. Chris Turner’s win over Zedler is a victory against partisanship, for those familiar with Virginia politics Zedler was sort of our equivalent to Cuccinnelli. Kent and Moody should be safe from here out due to how their districts are changing in democrats favor.

Meanwhile, Dallas dems have been on such a rise, a candidate who was little more than a name on the ballot may have pulled off an upset pending the recount. Bob Romano (D) is 29 votes behind immigrant hater and school voucher supporter Linda Harper-Brown in Dallas County’s HD-105. If Romano pulls this one out the House becomes a 75-75 tie. Expect Romano to face a stiff primary challenge in 2010 should he win.

Final Result? The odds of Tom Craddick remaining speaker are extremely slim. Expect a new Speaker who will allow members to bring forward legislation that is important to their districts. It’s a good day for Democracy in the Texas House.

Dallas County

Dems won everything by large margins at a county level. Obama finished just shy of 60% and so did many of the judges. Embattled Sheriff Lupe Valdez (Female, Minority, Lesbian) finished with 55%

Harris County

Houston, we have liftoff. All but three, maybe four judges got over the finish line. They are the first democrats elected county wide in Harris county since the early 90s. Joining them are our new County Attorney Vince Ryan (D), County Clerk Loren Jackson (D), and (most importantly) the lead democratic vote getter Houston City Councilman and now, Sheriff-elect, Adrian Garcia. We were 5,000 votes short in winning District Attorney and finished behind in decent margins for County Judge and Tax-Assessor/Collector. All offices should be held by Democrats within 6-8 years.

Tarrant County

No gains, but Tarrant held margins exactly even as the state as a whole. Want to take the state’s temperature? Watch Fort Worth.

Bexar County

A few judges gained in San Antonio, but nothing drastic. This county remains fairly non partisan.

Travis County

Obama won 67% in this Austin based county. Everything else followed.

A Few Other Notes

Galveston Counties is becoming more of a white flight county with margins diminishing. This is very bad news for Galveston where most offices are held by Dems. Dems barely held the open Sheriff seat 50.5%-49.5% against an underfunded, under-qualified republican. I can only hope that it is due to Democrats leaving the island from Hurricane Ike.

Democrats won their first Judge on the 1st Court of Appeals, a 14 county court that includes Harris and Galveston county then stretches out towards Austin. Congratulations Judge Jim Sharp.

Fort Bend County, home of Sugarland is moving Democratic with several 53-47 wins for the republicans. Not bad.

Fort Bend County Commissioner Place 1 has moved to the Democrats. It’s just a low level County Commissioner but I thought you all would like to know due to who won it. Netroots hero and original Dean Dozen candidate, Richard Morrison.

The Future

It’s good. Houston Mayor will be an open seat in 2009 due to term limits and I have only heard Democratic names mentioned.

The state house is 1 or 2 Dems behind from switching over and we got 1 cycle to do it. We did New York’s Senate, time for our House.

Governor. Dems started winning Harris County and that’s the greenlight. Houston Mayor Bill White should be ready to go for us. All eyes are now on Hutchison and what she chooses to do. All of Texas’ Republican politicians are in a holding position, waiting on her and what she chooses to do. Rick Perry has no term limits and wants to keep his job. As for the other offices, Former Comptroller John Sharp is supposably looking at the Senate seat and Noriega may be eyeing Lt. Gov.

Time will tell, but we’re looking good.

Updates

Some more information:

Quickly, I was horribly wrong about Denton county. It went from +40 Bush, to +26 McCain. I am thrilled by this news and personally I am determined to flip this county even if I have to take it over myself, I just graduated from Denton’s University of North Texas, so it is a bit of a vested interest.

1) Bell County. We had a good state house race here, lost it by the same margin Obama did. Very promising change in margins. Perhaps we can try again next year.

2) Major movement in Cameron County (Brownsville)

3) Several Valley districts moved Dem between 10%-20%

4) Nueces County (Corpus Christi) is still red (surprising) but less so by 10%.

5) There is a slow creep democratically across Ron Paul’s TX-14 (Corpus to Galveston). My guess is this is more of an immigration line more than anything consisting of Mexican immigrants moving north.

(From the diaries. Share your thoughts on Mississippi’s 2007 elections here. – promoted by James L.)

Louisiana has had their jungle primary and Democrats held on to the both chambers of the state legislature, the Lieutenant Governorship, and are heading into run offs for Agriculture Commissioner and Attorney General. Before these runoffs are held, Kentucky and Mississippi will have similar statewide elections on November 6. Additionally, New Jersey and Virginia will be electing large portions of their state legislatures. Going into these elections, I’d like us to have an opportunity to focus on these somewhat overlooked 2007 elections. Before going forward, I will admit that I am not an expert on any of these states and these threads are mostly here for feedback from the forum users. Today, I’ll focus on Mississippi.

Mississippi will be voting for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Agriculture and Commerce Commissioner, and Insurance Commissioner. Additionally the state legislature is up. Here’s a brief on each office.

Governor
Haley Barbour, former tobacco lobbyist, is seeking re-election as the Republican nominee. Barbour beat out incumbent Democrat, Ronnie Musgrove in 2003. Since then he has been received positively by the state, mostly due to what was seen as strong reaction to Hurricane Katrina (no doubt reinforced by Louisiana’s poor reaction). The Democrats have nominated John Arthur Eaves Jr. who, from what I have heard, has run hard on religion and performed well in debates while Barbour has appeared listless. Expect Barbour to win, but his margin of victory to be closer than expected.

Lieutenant Governor
Due to term limits, Republican Amy Tuck will not be seeking re-election. The Republicans have nominated 3 term State Auditor Phil Bryant. The Democrat is State Rep. Jaime Franks. Both candidates look to be highly engaged in this race. I have no idea who is favored, but I’d guess Bryant because he has been elected statewide before.

Secretary of State
Incumbent Democrat Eric Clark is retiring. Democrats have nominated Former State Senator Rob Smith. The Republicans have put forward Redstate favorite Delbert Hosemann who will keep those “dirty illegals” from voting. Delbert’s campaign looks much more engaged compared to Smith whose campaign looks nonexistent. Expect the Republicans to gain this one.

Attorney General
Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood is seeking re-election. The Republican candidate is Attorney Al Hopkins. Both sides appear engaged and Hopkins looks like he’s bringing abortion into the election. Both sides also look like they are getting REAL dirty as well. This one may be close, but I’d guess a Hood re-election is in store.

State Auditor
Phi Bryant is the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor, so it is an open seat race. Cousin to Congressman Chip, State Sen. Stacey Pickering is the Republican nominee. The Democrats have nominated Forrest County Adminstrator Mike Sumrall. This one looks like it has gotten away from us and will stay with the Republicans.

Treasurer
Republican Tate Reeves is seeking re-election and the Democrats have frequent candidate Shawn O’Hara. This one is staying theirs.

Agriculture and Commerce
Republican Lester Spell is seeking re-election. Former Democratic State Chair Rickey Cole is our guy. This is the only race where the Democrat seems more engaged than the Republican. If we upset any race this is it, but the Republican is still favored. A candidate from the Constitution Party may make the difference for us.

Insurance Commissioner
DFA endorsed and ex-state fiscal officer Gary Anderson defeated incumbent Democrat George Dale in the primary, so this can be considered an open seat race. The Republicans have nominated Mike Chaney. Anderson looks a bit more engaged, but, and I REALLY hate to say this, expect race may be a factor and we may lose it on that alone, issues be damned! I’d say this leans Republican, but we still have chance.

State Senate
A pair of Democrats defected earlier this year and gave control of the legislature to the Republicans. The current Composition is 27 Republicans-25 Democrats. I expect the Republicans may have some coattails from many of their top of the ballot races and gain a tad to expand their majorities.

State House
The DLCC website states the Mississippi State House has a 74-48 Democratic majority. Expect our majroity to shrink due to coattails, but Democrats to stay in command.

Summary
Republicans will keep the statewide seats they already have, however the race for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may be closer than we could have previously hoped for. The Agriculture Commissioner may flip Democratic, however it is unlikely Democrats can also expect to lose the Secretary of State. Our bright side appears that, while it will be close, we should hold onto the Attorney General, barely, and the State House. While Insurance Commissioner will probably flip Republican, we do have fighting chance of holding it.

Please, comment, and tell me your thoughts on Mississippi. I’ll have more of these up before Nov 6 on New Jersey, Virginia, and Kentucky.

On a complete side note, I am looking forward to Friday when I can get Mac OS X.5 Leopard so I can get bloody spell check build into Safari, so until then, please forgive the spelling typos where they are.

U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) had announced long ago that he would not seek re-election. Well, it is amazing what life in the majority does to you. Rep. Gutierrez has reversed directions and is now a candidate for re-election. This was never a competitive district, so this is not shutting out the republicans from being able to pick up a seat.

The only, thus far, open democratic seats that remain are those of Rep. Mark Udall (CO-2) and Rep. Tom Allen (ME-1) who are both seeking challenges to move up into the senate.

If anyone from Chicago is reading this, I would like to know how this afects the ground game for any democrats who were trying to move up to the house.

The original CQ article is posted below the flip.

http://www.cqpolitic… 

With Democrats now running the House, Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez, D-Ill., said Thursday that he will seek re-election in his Chicago-area 4th District, reversing an earlier decision to retire from Congress at the end of 2008.

Gutierrez made his announcement in Chicago, where he was attending the Illinois Hispanic Chamber of Commerce's Business Expo.

“In terms of effectiveness, I believe that my position in Congress is where I can be the strongest, most effective advocate for the people of Chicago and for our nation's immigrant communities,” Gutierrez, a leading advocate of overhauling immigration laws, said in a statement.

Gutierrez originally said in December 2005 that he would seek an eighth and final term in November 2006 and explore a run for Chicago mayor in February 2007. He won re-election with 86 percent of the vote last November, then decided against challenging longtime Democratic Mayor Richard M. Daley in a primary.

Even though he had disclosed his retirement plans nearly a year before the 2006 elections, well before it was clear that Democrats would win a majority of House seats, he had confirmed his retirement plans to a Congressional Quarterly reporter in March 2007.

Gutierrez said that his decision to run again was influenced by his wife's recovery from thyroid cancer and the possibility that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a fellow Chicagoan, will be elected president in 2008. Many Chicago-area officials were encouraging him to run again.

[…]

Most, if not all, of the four Democrats currently seeking Gutierrez's seat are expected to defer to the congressman and not challenge him in the Feb. 5 primary election. The would-be successors are Cook County commissioner Roberto Maldonado and Chicago Aldermen George Cardenas, Manny Flores and Ricardo Munoz. The top candidate in this quartet appears to be Flores, who reported raising nearly $500,000 through the end of June. […]

Let me first say, I have never met Dan Grant nor do I live in TX-10, but I am a young Texas Democrat who regularly commutes from TX-22 (Friendswood/Houston) to TX-26 (Denton/Fort Worth) for college.

I was just checking the FEC records because, well, I was bored and I noticed the numbers for the Texans who have filed their reports thus far. According to said reports, Democratic challenger for TX-10, Dan Grant, performed admirably.

Q2 2007
Amount Raised: $72,765.08
COH: $134,482.52
Debts: $0
http://query.nictusa…

For a district hovering somewhere in our third tier, $72.7 thousand is not too shabby. However the real amazing part is when this is compared to the Republican incumbent, Mike McCaul.

Q2 2007
Amount Raised: $131,384.58
COH: $133,387.41
Debts: $171,652.23
http://query.nictusa…

Ignoring the outstanding debt McCaul’s campaign has ramped up, Grant still has more cash. If McCaul were to pay off all of his debt today he’d be $38,624.82 in the hole. This is an amazing advantage Grant has raised over McCaul and I hope the DCCC takes notice.

It is important to note that Grant does have a democratic challenge ahead of him. Larry Joe Doehrty (sp?) who is known for his tv court room drama, Texas Justice, is in the democratic primary as well. While I am personally rooting for Grant due to his efforts in reaching out to blogs, he has posted here on swingstate several times before, it is important that we support whomever wins the democratic nomination next year especially since McCaul won with a pathetic 55% last year.

If you would like to learn more about Dan Grant please visit his website:
http://www.dangrantf…

I’m sure donations would also be welcome to keep his momentum going:
http://www.actblue.c…

P.S. While I like commenting (have been for almost 2 years), this is my first diary. How’d I do?