For those of you who saw the State of the Union last night, you may remember Obama said he was heading to Florida today to talk about a high speed rail project that was starting today. Well, the addendum here is Gov. Crist, Republican candidate for US Senate, is appearing with The President at the ground breaking ceremony.
Crist took a political pounding for standing with Obama a year ago for promoting the stimulus project. It is now a year later and Crist is doing the same thing all over again. Crist has some political smarts, there would have to be a real reason for him making such a poor political move as he’s beginning to sink in his upcoming primary election. The New Republic is now asking openly if Crist is thinking about changing parties.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonath…
I went over to Crist’s website in mid-December (it has changed since then) and noticed there was not much in way of being a conservative with “Republican,” and “GOP” being nowhere to be found and “conservative” listed only once in reference to his fiscal policies (and really, who does NOT run as a “fiscal conservative” these days?).
There was also no issue page in December. There is one now and the issues listed seem rather . . . sensible. The only red flag I see, as a Democrat, is opposition to the Health Care reform bill.
So, what say the lot of ya? Is Crist about to bolt the GOP and join Team Blue?*
*I put my lot down in mid December and said he would join the Dems by Valentine’s Day, so I am a YES. May be a little later than Valentine’s Day, but I’m standing by my prediction.
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has a very prominent graphic that says “Stand up to Obama and his backroom healthcare deals.”
Consistent Leadership – The Charlie Crist Conservative Record. And the latest blog entry is an attack on timelines for withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. He should run as a Dem but I doubt he will.
Maybe he wants non-Republicans to cross over and vote for him.
In an enviornment like this when we have a meh candidate like Meek, I would welcome Crist with open arms. He would likely defeat Rubio and help stem the losses of one of our likely losses in the Senate (NV, ND, AR, DE etc.)
If Crist bails and becomes a Democrat, it will be obvious that he did it to save his hide and his approvals are going to take a hit. If he were to be the nominee, voters would basically be looking at two candidates, one they see as principled and one they see as an opportunist that they won’t be able to trust. And if Crist’s budget antics catch up to him while he’s on our team it could hurt Democrats up and down the ballot.
From a purely political point of view, I think that Crist would do better politically by running as an independent than as a Dem (or a Republican).
If he jumps to the Democratic party, it will appear to be a move of opportunism, not integrity. The Democratic base wouldn’t be enthused about him but would reluctantly welcome him, the Republicans would be fired up about punishing a traitor, and independents/moderates would find the whole thing very suspect.
If he were to run as an independent, he could legitimately say that he no longer felt at home in a Republican party taken over by crazies, but as a moderate he isn’t in agreement with Democrats either. In many ways a credible political figure like Crist running as an independent would be well suited to the “pox on both your houses” attitude that many voters seem to have these days.
He could make a strong case that rather than doing the bidding of either party, he would be a voice for the issues that mattered to Florida and that he could be a decisive influential swing vote in a divided Senate.
The question would be whether he could successfully occupy a large middle swath of Florida public opinion, or whether he would be squeezed out by Rubio and Meek. I suspect the general election race would eventually become a Rubio/Crist race with Meek dropping to a relatively distant third (but that is only a guess).
I’m not enthusiastic about Crist in the Senate as an independent — it would invite a different version of Lieberman-ism holding legislation hostage. However, it would be a far superior option to a tea-bagging inspired victory by Rubio.
I’m actually a bit surprised that we haven’t seen the emergence of significant independent and third party candidates in this political cycle — despite the significant structural barriers, it seems to me the political environment might be open to such candidates. I personally think that it would not be a good thing, but I’m still somewhat surprised it doesn’t appear to be happening.
No reason for Charlie to reinvent the wheel. A similar speech with a similar explanation – assuming a welcome from President Obama, could have a similar effect.
Not that Spector is a shoe-in or anything, but he’s got a better shot now as a D.
But he’s really left with no other alternative if he wants to make it to the general.
the way this is going to play out is that Crist is going to pull a Joe Lieberman. He’s going to be stubborn and go through with the Republican primary against Marco Rubio, and he’s going down to defeat. Following that, he’s going to announce a run in the general as an Independent, making it a three way race. In this situation, you’ll have Rubio winning the teabagger/conservative vote, Crist the more businesslike wing of the Republicans, many moderates, and a bunch of conservative/moderate Dems, while Meek cleans up amongst the mainstream democrats and progressives.
The result in this case is that I don’t think Rubio or Meek will be able to build their coalition far enough into the center to win, and that, barring further erosion into his favorables, Crist is going to win by about a 36-32-32 margin.