Nathaniel90’s diary motivated me to make my own Republican gerrymander of Texas. By the time I was done, I was kinda shocked at how “ugly” some of my districts looked, notably TX-7, TX-8, and TX-10 all reaching into downtown Houston to dilute a new minority district, and how TX-21, TX-17, TX-10, and a new Republican TX-35 were snaked across central Texas so as to keep all these seats in Republican control for 10 years and likely dislodge Edwards. My inspiration here was a comment by TXMichael to separate Bell, Williamson, and McLennan into three different districts. Originally I was going to allow Edwards to be “safe” and create a district for him out of these three counties and Travis, but I think the TX Republican party is more likely to try something like this.
TX-7 is the most “at risk” GOP district in the state at 56% White. Most GOP districts are close to 60% white. All Democratic seats, except the Travis county based TX-25 are over 75% minority.
Full State, Top Half
Full State, Bottom Half
El Paso
Dallas/Fort Worth This is what I am the most proud of. Sessions and Marchant are safe, and a new Democratic seat is made on Dallas’ west side.
Harris CountyA new Republican seat is made. I’m shocked at how I had to have TX-7, TX-8 and TX-10 reach into downtown to grab leftover minority precincts. If a 36th seat comes around, I think this is where it’s going to go providing an extra buffer for TX-7 and TX-34 (TX-2, TX-29, and TX-34 are all green and border each other, sorry)
Travis County
Bexar County
Central Texas OMG! What did I do to TX-10, TX-17, TX-21, TX-31, and TX-35? I eliminated Chet Edwards with a can not win district and made a new rural Republican seat. Sucks to be Chet, I guess the Republicans can make things worse.
Districts in Review:
TX-1 (Blue): Louie Gohmert (R) Smith County, Nacadoches, and northern East Texas. 67% White
Contracts in size, loses a few counties, but still the same East Texas district full of people JSmith does not tolerate 😛
TX-2 (Dark Green): Ted Poe (R) Far East Harris County, Beaumont, and Jasper. 65% White
Loses some Harris County precincts and expands to become mostly based out of East Texas grabbing all of Jefferson county and several other rural East Texas counties.
TX-3 (Purple): Sam Johnson (R) Collin County, Plano. 65% White
Contract, contract, contract. Loses all Dallas precincts and grabs a handful of new Collin county precincts in exchange.
TX-4 (Red): Ralph Hall (R) Rural Colin County, Rockwall County, Paris. 75% White
Almost no changes. Only changes were the addition of Wood County and Loss of all of Cass County.
TX-5 (Yellow): Jeb Hensarling (R) Mesquite, Grand Prairie, Ellis County, Athens County. 60% White.
Hensarling’s district rotates clockwise in Dallas county, losing some of the stuff on his north end and reaches around to the southwest corner. Additionally, the addition of Ellis county gives TX-5 a rural county with a large population.
TX-6 (Sea Green): Joe Barton (R) Arlington, Johnson County. 59% White
In Tarrant, TX-6 grabs a little more of downtown. The rest of the district is entirely different. Gone is the I-45 stretch to Centervile, instead the Heavy straight-ticket GOP county of Johnson is added.
TX-7 (Grey): John Culberson (R) West Houston. 56% White
The most “vulnerable” GOP district in the state. relatively the same, bleeds some precincts out of Jersey Village and few more out of Spring Village. Grabs some new precincts out of West University Place and Bellaire.
TX-8 (Deep Purple): Kevin Brady (R) The Woodlands, West Downtown Houston. 64% White
The first “special” district. TX-8 gives up all of the rural East Texas districts (no more Jim Turner to dislodge) and now reaches it’s tentacle from Montgomery county into downtown Houston grabbing as many leftover minority districts as it can find.
TX-9 (Light Blue): Al Green (D) Southwest Houston, Rosenburg. 32% Black, 29% Hispanic, 24% White
TX-9 begins a run towards Fort Bend County. Despite the Delay reputation left with Sugarland and Fort Bend, Obama got 49% in this County. TX-9 reaches to Rosenburg to grab all the minority precincts to make a safe TX-22.
TX-10 (Bright Pink): Mike McCaul (R) Northeast Travis, North Harris, Downtown Houston, Temple. 59% White
The next special district. A lot of this would be easier is McCaul did not live in Travis County. Some Travis counties were shed, as was Burleson, Austin, and some of Waller county. The district gains by grabbing those other minoirty precincts in Harris that TX-8 could not get and reach around College Station to Bell County and grabs as much as it can from this shifting democratic county.
TX-11 (Lime Green): Mike Conaway (R) San Angelo, Midland, Odessa. 57% White
Not many changes.Grabs Coryell and Hamilton County, burns Kimble, Mason, Llano, and Gillespie.
TX-12 (Blue): Kay Granger (R) North West Tarrant County. 59% White.
Not much change. Loses some land to TX-6 and takes some downtown precincts from TX-24.
TX-13 (Peach): Mac Thornberry (R) Panhandle. 67% White.
Loses no land, grabs a handful of new counties, including Deaf Smith, Archer, Young, and Castro, and Parmer.
TX-14 (Safari Green): Ron Paul (R) Galveston, Aransas, La Grange. 55% White
Om nom nom, land. TX-14 grows and grows a lot. Goodbye Wharton county, hello I-10 corridor and lands north of Corpus Christie. Don’t let the low numbers of Whites fool you, this is libertarian land that loves Ron Paul crazies.
TX-15 (Orange): Ruben Hinojosa (D) McAllen, Harlengen. 87% Hispanic.
If TX-14 was scarfing food, TX-15 is bulimic. It contracts to just these two cities.
TX-16 (Nuclear Green) Sylvester Reyes (D) El Paso. 81% Hispanic
I think it bleed 3 precincts total. No change.
TX-17 (Dark Purple) Chet Edwards (D) Waco, Hood County, Corsicana, Huntsville, San Jacinto County. 67% White.
Okay, Chet Edwards should have been eliminated in 2004, but he wasn’t and he’s a BAMF. The addition of College Station should have finished him off, except the legislature forgot Aggies are idiots (if you live in Texas, you know the jokes and you are laughing) and will vote for someone only if they wear their A&M class ring. First thing to do, get rid of A&M. He now has Sam Houston University in Huntsville and the entire backwoods region north of Houston. My only regret with this district? Getting rid of Johnson county, maybe I should have kept Johnson and eliminated Hood instead. Oh well . . . Either ways, behold the end of Rep. Edwards.
TX-18 (Yellow) Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) Downtown Houston. 51% Black, 34% Hispanic
Grabs a lot of area on the South side of Houston and burns stuff near Jersey Village. I’m surprised I got a 51% black district.
TX-19 (Puke Green) Randy Neugenbauer (R) Rural West Texas, Lubbock. 61% White.
Grabs Erath and Andrews County, not many other changes
TX-20 (Light Pink) Charlie Gonzales (D) Downtown San Antonio. 72% Hispanic.
Contraction. Sam shape, just loses a few precincts on each side.
TX-21 (Burnt Red) Lamar Smith (R) North Bexar County, Hayes County, McMullen County. 57% White.
WHAT IS THIS THING?!?!?! The most altered district in Texas is what it is. North San Antonio is the only part that is the same. It adds barely democratic Hayes county, and lost of other rural counties on the east side of Austin/San Antonio . My surprise was how far south it had to reach to get enough voters.
TX-22 (Dirt Brown) Pete Olson (R) Fort Bend County, North Brazoria County, Wharton, Austin, Waller Counties and Far West Harris County (including Katy). 58% White.
TX-22 gives up on Galveston county and lots of the urban parts of Fort Bend. In exchange it reaches out of Houston and goes for rural lands. The Addition of Katy in Houston is the most straight ticket republicans you can find, anywhere.
TX-23 (Sea Blue) Ciro Rodriguez (D) South Bexar County, Rural lands to El Paso, Del Rio. 67% Hispanic.
Goodbye white northern precincts in Bexar county, hello safe Dem seat for Ciro.
TX-24 (Purple) Kenny Marchant (R). North East Tarrant County.
Goodbye Dallas, Goodbye Denton. Yes, I know Kenny lives in Denton, but he’s gonna have to move, his district moved fast, and he’s going to have to as well. Southlake, Grapevine, etc will cancel out the addition of downtown Fort Worth precincts.
TX-25 (Pink) Lloyd Doggett (D). Austin 43% White, 41% Hispanic.
So much for the 2002 plans to split up Austin, Rep. Doggett comes home and represents the White liberals in his new condensed district.
TX-26 (Grey) Michael Burgess (R) Denton and Cooke Counties. 68% White.
Burgess is going to be real safe for a real long time with this district. All of Denton and Cooke, Burns all of Tarrant.
TX-27 (Gak Green) Solomon Ortiz (D) Corpus Christie to Brownsville. 71% Hispanic.
Grabs all of San Patricio county, besides that, pretty much the same.
TX-28 (Lavender) Henry Cuellar (D) Laredo, Maverick County, Jim Wells County, and North Hidalgo County. 92% Hispanic.
TX-28 grabs a lot of the rural land that was previously held by TX-15. It’s rural growth, but it is still a safe valley seat.
TX-29 (Grey Green) Gene Green (D) East Downtown Houston. 76% Hispanic.
I don’t know if Gene Green can be dislodged via a primary, but this is a safe Democratic district that will elect a Hispanic should he retire in the next decade. Eliminated Baytown.
TX-30 (Peachy) E.B. Johnson (D) South Dallas, Bits around Garland. 42% Black, 35% Hispanic
TX-30 is still an african American district thanks to Duncanville, but it won’t be by 2020. It trades a lot of land around Garland with TX-32 to still be a safe Dem seat.
TX-31 (Goldenrod) John Carter (R) Williamson County, Killeen, College Station. 63% White.
Williamson is moving blue, but the College Station parts should offset it through the decade. Carter is not be vulnerable to a democrat, but he may be vulnerable to an Aggie challenge (see TX-17 rant)
TX-32 (Orange) Pete Sessions (R) Richardson, Garland, Rowlett 62% White.
I don’t know how I did it, but I made a safe Republican TX-32. All the suburbs, all the mansions, none of the risk. Loses West Dallas, gains from TX-5 on the East Side.
TX-33 (Blue) NEW (D) Corckett Hill, West Dallas, Irving. 66% Hispanic.
Safe new Dem seat. Get ready to say “Rep. Rafael Anchia,” if he is not mayor of Dallas by then.
TX-34 (Glowing Green) NEW (R) Clear Lake, North Galveston County, Humble. 58% White.
If Katy is the most Republican part of Harris County, this is the second most. North Galveston is getting whiter and more Republican and Clear Lake continues to hold NASA and the white collar engineers and mansions. It may get closer near the end of the decade due to growth on the north side, but this one will be R and stay that way due to straight ticket voters. Likely new Rep: State Rep. Larry Taylor of Friendswood.
TX-35 (Bright Purple) NEW (R) West Travis County, Northwest Bexar county, Comal County, Llano, Kerrville. 72% White.
Very Republican, very rural with growing exurbs. Don’t let the Travis county parts fool you, that is the swing part of the county. New Rep will be . . .a Republican, who knows.
Conclusion:
20R-12R is going to become 23R-12D. However, even if the republicans controlled the process in 2020, I don’t think they can make more R seats. Hispanics are moving in, and they are taking over. Who knows, by 2020, they might actually start voting.
Let me know what you all think!
You’ve drawn Joe Barton and Jeb Hensarling into the same district; Barton lives in Ellis County.
I find it inexplicable that everyone keeps the West Texas districts largely intact. They were drawn that way so Charles Stenholm would have nowhere to go, and keeping them the way they are is wasting a lot of votes. An even surer way to get rid of Chet Edwards is to draw him out to West Texas. Even then, there’s an excess of votes that you could use to deal with some of downtown Fort Worth. Then, some of the current DFW Republican districts could be made safer.
A few thoughts
1. I think Edwards could mount a good campaign in CD-31 as it is drawn based on the Aggie rant, the shifting of Williamson County and his name recognition. I think Edwards may have the best statewide name recognition of any Texas Rep. It would be nice to see a poll done on that.
2. Clever drawing in Dallas County to remove as much minority vote from CD-32 and CD-24 as possible.
3. Harris County is very impressive, I’ve been trying to find a way to prevent a new Dem seat and you did a great job cracking Houston. Maybe 8, 10 and 22 can be shifted around a bit more to provide additional protection for 7?
While there are some key differences between our maps, it’s kind of stunning how fundamentally similar they are. Whatever happens, it seems clear that one Dem (Edwards) is going to be further targeted, one (Rodriguez) will get a much easier district (to avoid VRA court challenges), and the others will remain fairly safe. Also, a new Hispanic seat in DFW is almost guaranteed (if the Republicans don’t concede a new minority district in the Metroplex to the Democrats, they should expect a court challenge), along with a new GOP seat in Houston and a new GOP seat somewhere in Central Texas.
To cancel out the new Democratic district in Dallas, the Republicans will do their darnedest to ruin Edwards, but without making life too hard for McCaul or Carter.
Beautiful job.
TX-21: This looks more like a lean R district to me than a strong R district. Lamar Smith could be in some trouble by the end of the decade – Hays, Caldwell, and Bastrop are all swingy, becoming Austin Suburb/Exurbs. And the parts of North San Antonio you have are not 100% solid R (though they are certainly not Democratic either).
Chet Edwards: You sure mangled things up, but even so, I am not sure that you really knocked out Edwards. The best bet for him would probably be to run in TX-10 against McCaul, though TX-31 (or even TX-6) might be a possibility as well.
In TX-10, he would win in NE Travis because it is Democratic leaning. He would win/be very competitive in Bell, Falls, Limestone, Robertson, and Grimes, which are all either from his current district or his old district. Edwards would probably win Waller County, due to the high Black population, and Bastrop County is more swing than GOP. Edwards would probably even be pretty competitive in Lee and Washington counties, although I don’t think he has represented them before. McCaul would probably win Houston, though depending on how many Hispanics you drew in, his margin in Harris County might not be that big. I’d call it a tossup between Edwards and McCaul. Also I think McCaul lives in West Austin, so he may be drawn out of the district.
The GOP will have a very tough time trying to eliminate Edwards, because he has represented many different areas in all the different versions of his Congressional and State Senate districts. They could probably do it, but they would have to build the whole map of Texas around that one goal, and it would probably lead to dummymandering in either Dallas or Austin.
Houston: TX-7 looks like a great candidate to flip Democratic by 2020. Did you add Hispanic areas from TX-9 in SW Houston? It may even be more Democratic than the current version. Other than that, you have it gerrymandered up real good and I’d bet it holds well. Not everywhere around Katy is straight ticket GOP though – there is huge minority population growth in West Harris County.
DFW: TX-32 may not be as safe as you think it is. For one thing, it is probably not as white as Dave’s App says it is, and not all the white voters in North Dallas/Garland/etc are Republican any more. Though the Hispanic population will have decreased, that won’t help Sessions so hugely they have low turnout anyway. I’ll bet the black population has increased a bit with your changes, which will partially offset that. Could be quite competitive in 2016, and if not then in 2020.
TX-24 is not entirely safe, though it should lean GOP for now thanks to Carrolton, etc.
TX-6 looks like it could be vulnerable against the right Tarrant County Dem (Wendy Davis, Chris Turner) in 2016 or so.
South Texas: Looks very vulnerable legally since not only did you not create a new Hispanic seat, you also created a packed TX-15 into a complete urban border district. That has been tried before and did not fly with the voting rights act, which is why all the districts in South Texas extend northwards through thin slivers. Probably this would get reworked by a court to suck a district (could be either TX-21, TX-14, TX-11, or your new TX-35) down to the border and turn it into a Hispanic district.
Perhaps I am overoptimistic, but the various GOP gerrymanders that have been posted make me feel pretty good about Texas redistricting (even assuming total Republican control). Either the GOP is going to have to cede at least 2 (or even 3) more Dem seats, or face a serious risk of both successful legal challenges and dummymandering.