This is my entry for Round 1 of the Great SSP Redistricting Contest. Let me apologize to the early commenters who couldn’t see the whole diary. I was saving it as I typed it just in case my computer decided to shut down on me in the middle of this long write up. Without further ado…
In addition to the contest rules, I added two personal goals for my map: 1) Create 28 districts that gave a majority of their votes to President Obama. 2) Add some cushion to potentially vulnerable members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. CPC members are Clarke, Hall, Hinchey, Maloney, Massa, Nadler, Rangel, Serrano, Slaughter and Velazquez.
Here's the big picture: 
Long Island
NY-1 Tim Bishop
Population: 700,503
New 1st: Obama – 53, McCain – 47
Old 1st: Obama – 52, McCain – 48
Race: White – 84, Black – 4, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 8, Other – 1.
This district isn’t much different from it’s old counterpart. Smithtown is no longer in this district while parts of Islip have been added. Bishop’s district is slightly more Democratic, with +2 percentage points.
NY-2 Steve Israel
Population: 701,080
New 2nd: Obama – 53, McCain – 47
Old 2nd: Obama – 56, McCain – 43
Race: White – 74, Black – 8, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 13, Other – 2.
This district isn’t as strong as Israel’s old one (you’ll find out why below), but is still majority-Obama. Smithtown from the 1st and parts of Babylon from the 3rd have been added. been added. Parts of Islip, Oyster Bay, and Babylon have been subtracted. With these changes, Obama is -7 from the old 2nd, but still takes 53% of the vote.
NY-3 Carolyn McCarthy
Population: 700,222
New 3rd: Obama – 54, McCain – 45
Old 3rd: Obama – 47, McCain – 52
Old 4th: Obama – 58, McCain – 41
Race: White – 71, Black – 12, Asian – 4, Hispanic – 12, Other – 2.
Since we get bonus points for screwing Peter King, I decided to eliminate his district. Oyster Bay is now split into McCarthy’s and Ackerman’s districts. I don’t know which part King’s house is in, but unless he moves, he’ll have to run against one of them. I tried to keep the new 2nd, 3rd, and 4th districts as evenly Democratic as possible, so they were all diluted to get their fair share of King’s pro-McCain district. In McCarthy’s case, her home in Mineola, Hempstead, and parts of Oyster Bay make a change of -8 from her old district.
NY-4 Gary Ackerman
Population: 700,925
New 4th: Obama – 54, McCain – 45
Old 5th: Obama – 63, McCain – 36
Race: White – 78, Black – 6, Asian – 7, Hispanic – 8, Other – 1.
This district is ugly. Ackerman was hit the hardest of the 3, but in order to screw King, he’ll have to take one for the team. His district is still Obama +9. His home of Roslyn Heights, plus parts of Oyster Bay, Hempstead, Babylon, and Queens make up the new 4th. Change is a whopping -18.
The Boroughs
NY-5 Gregory Meeks
Population: 700,739
New 5th: Obama – 82, McCain – 18
Old 6th: Obama – 89, McCain – 11
Race: White – 21, Black – 52, Asian – 7, Hispanic – 14, Other – 6.
This is a VRA district, 52% black. Not much has really changed here from the old 6th. Some of the western areas have been placed in the new 8th.
NY-6 Joseph Crowley
Population: 701,328
New 6th: Obama – 74, McCain – 25
Old 7th: Obama – 79, McCain – 20
Race: White – 25, Black – 6, Asian – 27, Hispanic – 38, Other – 4.
Crowley loses the Bronx, but gains more of Queens.
NY-7 Jerry Nadler
Population: 700,683
New 7th: Obama – 56, McCain – 43
Old 8th: Obama – 74, McCain – 26
Race: White – 65, Black – 4, Asian – 15, Hispanic – 12, Other – 3.
This district took a big hit in order to help McMahon. Includes much of South Brooklyn and snakes up into the Northern parts.
NY-8 Anthony Weiner
Population: 701,185
New 8th: Obama – 61, McCain – 38
Old 9th: Obama – 55, McCain – 44
Race: White – 55, Black – 6, Asian – 17, Hispanic – 16, Other – 6.
Weiner’s distric is simililar to his old one, but loses some Brooklyn areas, holds onto Forest Hills, and adds more of Queens. Obama gains +12.
NY-9 Ed Towns
Population: 700,786
New 9th: Obama – 92, McCain – 7
Old 10th: Obama – 91, McCain – 9
Race: White – 17, Black – 60, Asian – 7, Hispanic – 12, Other – 3.
Another VRA district, this one 60% black. This Brooklyn based district now extends into Manhattan.
NY-10 Yvette Clarke
Population: 700,960
New 10th: Obama – 84, McCain – 16
Old 11th: Obama – 91, McCain – 9
Race: White – 25, Black – 52, Asian – 5, Hispanic – 13, Other – 4.
VRA district, 52% black. Clarke’s new district now snakes into Queens.
NY-11 Nydia Velazquez
Population: 700,306
New 8th: Obama – 87, McCain – 12
Old 9th: Obama – 86, McCain – 13
Race: White – 22, Black – 16, Asian – 8, Hispanic – 50, Other – 4.
VRA district that is 50% hispanic. Still gets Brooklyn and Manhattan but also gets much more of Queens.
NY-12 Mike McMahon
Population: 701,421
New 12th: Obama – 54, McCain – 45
Old 13th: Obama – 49, McCain – 51
Race: White – 61, Black – 8, Asian – 8, Hispanic – 20, Other – 3.
This district should be much easier for McMahon, going from majority McCain to majority Obama. Still has all of Staten Island, but Brooklyn areas are more Democratic than the old 13th.
NY-13 Carolyn Maloney
Population: 699,898
New 13th: Obama – 81, McCain – 18
Old 14th: Obama – 78, McCain – 21
Race: White – 72, Black – 5, Asian – 11, Hispanic – 10, Other – 2.
Maloney’s Upper East Side base, plus Southern Manhattan. No longer in Queens.
NY-14 Charlie Rangel
Population: 700,649
New 14th: Obama – 91, McCain – 8
Old 15th: Obama – 93, McCain – 6
Race: White – 29, Black – 26, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 40, Other – 2.
VRA district that is 71% minority. Rangel gets some new areas south of his old district but cedes some of his old district to the new 11th and new 15th.
NY-15 Jose Serrano
Population: 701,218
New 15th: Obama – 95, McCain – 5
Old 16th: Obama – 95, McCain – 5
Race: White – 3, Black – 30, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 63, Other – 2.
VRA district that is 63% hispanic. Other than taking a little bit of Manhattan and a little bit of Queens, this district does not change much.
NY-16 Eliot Engel
Population: 699,973
New 16th: Obama – 80, McCain – 20
Old 17th: Obama – 72, McCain – 28
Race: White – 33, Black – 22, Asian – 6, Hispanic – 36, Other – 3.
Instead of going from Engel’s home of Woodside and heading upstate, this district takes most of the Bronx areas from the old 7th and even gets into north Queens a little bit.
Upstate
NY-17 Nita Lowey
Population: 701,251
New 17th: Obama – 70, McCain – 30
Old 18th: Obama – 62, McCain – 38
Race: White – 50, Black – 25, Asian – 4, Hispanic – 18, Other – 3.
Loses parts of Rockland Co. and the parts of Westchester Co. down to the Northern parts of White Plains. Extends south into Mount Vernon and the Bronx.
NY-18 John Hall
Population: 700,819
New 18th: Obama – 57, McCain – 42
Old 19th: Obama – 51, McCain – 48
Race: White – 77, Black – 8, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 9, Other – 2.
Of all the districts, this one was my favorite to rearrange. Hall was elected in a 54% Bush district that only improved to 51% Obama in the 2008 election. Can’t let that stand, now can we? Hall now has Westchester Co. north of White Plains, all of Putnam Co., and Dutchess Co. up to his home in Dover. Obama gets +12. That should give this CPC member plenty of breathing room. Dance with me.
NY-19 Scott Murphy
Population: 700,169
New 19th: Obama – 54, McCain – 45
Old 20th: Obama – 51, McCain – 48
Race: White – 92, Black – 3, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.
Murphy keeps his home in Glens Falls but loses the rest of Warren Co. He also loses Ostego, Delaware, and Greene. In exchange, he gains some Albany burbs.
NY-20 Paul Tonko
Population: 701,411
New 20th: Obama – 56, McCain – 43
Old 21st: Obama – 58, McCain – 40
Race: White – 83, Black – 8, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 6, Other – 2.
Tonko gets Albany, most of Albany Co., Schenectady, Schoharie, Greene, and Mongomery Cos. He also gets parts of Delaware, Sullivan, Orange, Fulton, and Herkimer Cos.
NY-21 Maurice Hinchey
Population: 700,399
New 21st: Obama – 55, McCain – 44
Old 20th: Obama – 59, McCain – 39
Race: White – 77, Black – 8, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 10, Other – 2.
Hinchey gets Ulster and Rockland Cos., plus eastern parts of Orange.
NY-22 Bill Owens
Population: 701,006
New 22nd: Obama – 52, McCain – 47
Old 23rd: Obama – 52, McCain – 47
Race: White – 94, Black – 2, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.
Owens basically gets the northern part of the state. Presidential vote percentage stays the same.
NY-23 Mike Arcuri
Population: 698,936
New 23rd: Obama – 53, McCain – 46
Old 24th: Obama – 51, McCain – 48
Race: White – 89, Black – 6, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 3, Other – 1.
I tried to help Arcuri, considering how close his reelection was in 2008. I tried to help him there by taking away some Republican areas such as Herkimer, Broome, and Tioga and giving him the bottom half of Syracuse and all of Madison Co. Obama gets +4.
NY-24 Dan Maffei
Population: 700,343
New 24th: Obama – 53, McCain – 45
Old 25th: Obama – 56, McCain – 43
Race: White – 92, Black – 3, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.
Maffei’s district gets -5 for Obama voters, but he should still be safe. District stretches from Syracuse to Rochester and picks up Republican Ontario Co. and parts of Steuben and Livingston.
NY-25 Chris Lee
Population: 701,362
New 25th: Obama – 52, McCain – 47
Old 26th: Obama – 46, McCain – 52
Race: White – 85, Black – 9, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 3, Other – 1.
Like King, Lee now finds himself in a majority Obama district. Working Families Party’s 2008 nominee Jon Powers lives in Clarence with Lee and would probably be able to win this district (heck I think he could have won it in 2008 had it not been for that messed up Democratic Primary). It stretches from Rochester to Buffalo and includes all of Genesee and Orleans Cos. and most of Niagara Co.
NY-26 Brian Higgins
Population: 695,323
New 26th: Obama – 54, McCain – 45
Old 27th: Obama – 54, McCain – 44
Race: White – 89, Black – 5, Native – 1, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 4, Other – 1.
Not much changes partisanship wise for Higgins. He now has Niagara Falls, West Buffalo, West Erie Co, all of Chautauqua, West and South Cattaraugus, and South Allegany.
NY-27 Louise Slaughter
Population: 694,213
New 27th: Obama – 58, McCain – 41
Old 28th: Obama – 69, McCain – 30
Race: White – 77, Black – 15, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 4, Other – 1.
This one goes from Rochester to Buffalo and then snakes over to Steuben, Yates, and Schuyler Cos. Kinda ugly, but honestly, I think my districts are much better looking than whoever drew the current New York map. I’m guessing it was Pataki and the Republicans in the legislature wanting to protect several districts that now belong to Democrats. Ha ha. In any event, Slaughter loses a lot of Obama voters, but still has a good district.
NY-28 Eric Massa
Population: 701,496
New 28th: Obama – 54, McCain – 44
Old 29th: Obama – 48, McCain – 51
Race: White – 88, Black – 6, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.
Like McMahon, Massa goes from a McCain district to an Obama district. Like Hall, Massa is now a CPC member with a district not as hostile. Buffalo, down to his home in Corning, up into Thompkins Co. and east to Delaware, Sullivan, and Orange. Possibly the ugliest district on my map. But it’s an ugly district that gave Obama +10 over McCain.
There you have it, 28 districts that gave Barack Obama a majority in 2008. Can all of these districts elect Democrats? Yes. Will they? That depends on our candidates.
Let me know what you think.
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Where is the explanation of the map?
to see the rest!
🙂
Where are your district-by-district descriptions?
Where are your numbers?
Where are your maps and other info for the downstate districts?
Your removal of Peter King makes sense, although it’s not foolproof and neither Ackerman nor McCarthy will thank you for giving them competitive districts.
However, Nadler’s been moved out of his home in Manhattan and is probably a bit too liberal for a 56-43 district and I think NY-10 includes the homes of both Clarke and Towns (although it’s very difficult to establish from the map exactly where specific neighbourhoods are).
Crowley can probably live with his district becoming even more minority-majority, but Engel may have more trouble. You’ve drawn his district from a suburbs one that extends into Bronx into a Bronx-Queens district. There are equal enough proportions of blacks and Hispanics to spare him from a primary challenge for a few years, but I’m not sure he’d be happy there. Not that that necessarily matters, of course.
Otherwise, it’s a decent map. I personally think 28-0 is a dummymander, and there’s a lot we’d struggle to hold if the political winds shifted and especially if Long Island or Upstate turned against us, but if you’re going to try to draw an all-Democrat map this is not a bad effort.
what you’ve done upstate more than downstate.
I think your upstate may be better than mine (forthcoming once I do a writeup), but downstate makes more than a few Dems unhappy. In particular, Nadler loses his Upper West Side base, and Israel and McCarthy get fairly icky LI districts.
I am still worried about a few districts. Tim Bishop and Steve Israel with 53% of the vote in their districts seem a bit weak. To protect the Long Island Democrats, you could include more of Queens in the 4th district and swap parts of the 5th district with the 3rd district. I like Upstate alot but 28-0 is pushing it a bit too far. Chris Lee keeps most of his old district in a district where Obama won 52% of the vote. I am not sure if that will knock him off but it definitely could!
Good map
No problem with Maryland, but i can not with New York. I click “Use T…” before select the state, but nothing.
Someone has the same problem?
I like try the 28-0 option. I think is the best, and i glad more people try this way.
Orange County to Buffalo. That’s a lot of driving.
But I think it’s going overboard. 27-1 is definitely good enough. Conceding one safe seat to repubs may save 3 or 4 Dem seats in an environment less favorable to Democrats.
I don’t remember who made the diary a week or two ago about the Presidential baselines in NY and how the Repubs have so many St Sen seats, but he had a very good point. Using Pres. baselines isn’t everything. Some of these 53-56% Obama seats could be in real danger. Can’t always count on Obama turnout. And even the Long Island seats arent completely safe (Bishop mostly).
I love the ambition and I would love 28 seats, but I think 27 solid or near-solid seats is better than 28 seats and 5 or 6 of them being marginal at best, IMHO. 🙂
Can you send me your .drf.xml file?
jeffmd |at| swingstateproject |dot| com
Thanks!