The Texas House is supposed to be one of our top priorities in 2010, however as of this morning it just got that much harder. Long time state representative Chuck Hopson announced he would be seeking re-election as a Republican.
Now, re-election for Hopson was going to be difficult. He barely scraped by in 2008 with 26, 042 votes (49.3%) over his republican opponent who got 25,928 votes (49.1%). At the same time Obama got clobbered in Hopson’s district 11 collecting only 27.5% of the vote to McCain’s 71.9%.
Hopson’s statement on switching parties is short, sweet, and shallow.
President Obama and the Democrats in Congress just don’t reflect the values of this district.”
Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie released the following statement.
It takes strength and integrity to stand against the special interests – and while some members have that strength, others like Chuck Hopson, apparently do not. In the Democratic Party, there is room for members who are conservative and progressive – the only reason anyone would leave is for crass political reasons and a refusal to stand up to special interests.
Democrats lost three seats they previously controlled in 2008, one of them being an open seat with similar demographics to district 11, located in the area between San Antonio and Houston. Going into 2010, Democrats have another rural open seat near Withita Falls that is currently held by David Farabee. With Farabee and Hopson gone, the number of rural, white democrats in Texas are dropping precariously. I’m not sure how many are left now besides Mark Homer, Joe Heflin, and Stephen Frost.
Republicans now control the Texas House 77-73.
Resources:
Hopson’s district map – http://www.house.state.tx.us/m…
Source – http://www.texastribune.org/st…
Obama wins a landslide in 2012 and we pickup districts that the Republicans never believed we could. That’s pretty much it.
He wouldn’t have survived 2010. Neither will a lot of rural white Democrats in the South.
Many people don’t like the message I’m sending, but those who don’t believe it will get it in November 2010.
in the Dallas, and Houston areas to gain seats, if the trends continue.
I think this rule goes for all of the urbanizing Southern states: Virginia, Georgia, the Carolinas, Texas, Florida. The key to Democratic success is no longer to win the rural, white vote. That area of former strength is falling farther and farther away as the people there (and elsewhere) become more likely to vote from the same party down ballot as they do for President.
Instead, the key is to replace those votes with increasing strength in the suburbs and cities and work to turn out that vote, to get those from more favorable demographics to register, etc. Basically, the equation now is to use the cities and suburbs to go around the rural areas and exurbs.
This makes it harder (maybe impossible) to take back the house. Yes, the rural areas are all going GOP. There’s an ongoing trend dividing Texas politically on the basis of urban/suburban vs. rural/exurban, with the exurbs and the rural areas GOP, the cities Democratic, and the suburbs increasingly competitive/lean Democratic. In the short term the only “good” news is there are at most about 5 rural Dems left, so we can’t go down much further. But in the longer run, let the GOP have the rural areas (aside from the border). That’s not where the people are, and it’s not the future.
So I guess we’re really looking at a 72-78 makeup? If we also count Farabee’s Wichita Falls seat as a probable loss? So we need a net gain of four.
So if our prime targets are Harper-Brown (Dallas), Legler (Harris) and Bohac (Harris), what is a possible fourth? What about Todd Hunter in Corpus Christi? Any chance Todd Smith in Tarrant Co. could pull a Kirk England and switch? I wish we could find credible candidates in a few Central Texas districts, even if chances are slim. Kleinschmidt (Bastrop-anchored) and Sheffield (Bell Co.) are both going up for their first re-election campaigns and then Gattis (Williamson Co.) and possibly Fred Brown (Brazos Co.) both will be leaving vacant seats. Of our freshmen, I’m most concerned about Miklos and Thibaut, pretty confident about Chris Turner and Moody.
I sure as hell hope Heflin, McReynolds, Homer and Frost stay put.
Speaking of which, I know Sestak is primarying him, and I’m not endorsing either of them, but I just want the netroots to treat both of them with respect.
In particular, I’m not a fan of Senate Guru’s dissing Specter. Because if we end up with him as our nominee, I don’t want to see us lose that seat only because people are unenthusiastic about him from primary-time infighting. It’s a freakin’ Senate seat; it’s pretty important.